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Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17

Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17 »

Source: Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17

Volume/Issue: 2019/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Majdi Debbich

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

ISBN: 9781513514567

Keywords: Oil producing countries, National income, Oil production, Economic growth, Development, conflict, nighttime lights, WP, nightlights, real GDP

This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using es...

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis*

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis* »

Source: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2019/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matthew Kahn , Kamiar Mohaddes , Ryan Ng , M. Pesaran , Mehdi Raissi , and Jui-Chung Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

ISBN: 9781513514598

Keywords: Greenhouse gas emissions, Economic growth, Real sector, Economic cooperation, Economic indicators, Climate change, adaptation, counterfactual analysis., WP, historical norm

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables-defined as deviation...

This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds

This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds »

Source: This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds

Volume/Issue: 2020/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 June 2020

ISBN: 9781513546216

Keywords: Climatic changes, Bond markets, Bond yields, Municipal bonds, Financial statistics, Climate change, vulnerability, resilience, government bond yields and spreads, WP

Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change an...

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment »

Source: Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Volume/Issue: 2020/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruoyun Mao , and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2020

ISBN: 9781513546797

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Real interest rates, Business cycles, Economic sectors, government spending effects, fiscal multiplier, regime-switching policy, monetary and fiscal policy interaction, nonlinear New Keynesian models

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multiplie...

Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature »

Source: Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

Volume/Issue: 2019/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Signe Krogstrup , and William Oman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 September 2019

ISBN: 9781513511955

Keywords: Financial regulation and supervision, Financial crises, Central banking and monetary issues, Economic conditions, Financial management, climate change, fiscal policy, monetary policy, financial policy, policy framework

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role...

Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?1

Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?1 »

Source: Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?

Volume/Issue: 2019/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , Shan Chen , Pragyan Deb , Albe Gjonbalaj , Swarnali Hannan , and Adil Mohommad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2019

ISBN: 9781513518312

Keywords: Bilateral trade, Balance of trade, Patterns of trade, Trading systems, Trade policy, Managed trade deal, spillover effects., WP, extra purchase, size-based

The trade discussions between the U.S. and China are on-going. Not much is known about the shape and nature of a potential agreement, but it seems possible that it would include elements of managed trade. This pape...

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil1

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil1 »

Source: Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Volume/Issue: 2020/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nooman Rebei , and Rashid Sbia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513528601

Keywords: Oil prices, Supply and demand, Oil production, Purchasing power parity, Real sector, Oil market, Vector autoregressions, Narrative analysis, Bayesian estimation, Kalman filtering

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evide...

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment*

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment* »

Source: Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Volume/Issue: 2020/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Thomas Cosimano , Celine Rochon , and Julieta Yung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513531861

Keywords: Interest rate increases, Discount rates, Risk premium, Financial markets, Financial instruments, Interest rate risk, non-linear stochastic discount factor, investment portfolio, term structure model, risk aversion distribution

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a mar...

A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands - Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands - Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change »

Source: A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands - Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Volume/Issue: 2019/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ryota Nakatani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2019

ISBN: 9781513511047

Keywords: Economic stabilization, Public financial management, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Business cycles, Fiscal Rule, Expenditure Rule, Recurrent Expenditure, Natural Disaster, Climate Change

A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertai...

Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different? »

Source: Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

Volume/Issue: 2019/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalija Novta , and Evgenia Pugacheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

ISBN: 9781498320450

Keywords: Agriculture, Capital income, Cross country analysis, Data analysis, Demographic indicators, Disposable income, Economic indicators, Economic sectors, Economies, Education

We examine the extent to which declining manufacturing employment may have contributed to increasing inequality in advanced economies. This contribution is typically small, except in the United States. We explore t...