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World Economic Outlook, October 2007
			: Globalization and Inequality

World Economic Outlook, October 2007 : Globalization and Inequality »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 March 2008

Language: Chinese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451928846.081

ISBN: 9781451928846

Keywords: capital inflows, globalization, private capital, output volatility, private capital flows, private capital inflows, capital flows, capital controls, exchange rate, commodity prices

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global...

Three Cycles

Three Cycles »

Source: Three Cycles : Housing, Credit, and Real Activity

Volume/Issue: 2009/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Alain Kabundi , Deniz Igan , Francisco Nadal De Simone , and Marcelo Pinheiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873788

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, house prices, business cycle, lead, spillovers,

We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House pric...

Foreign Entanglements

Foreign Entanglements »

Source: Foreign Entanglements : Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

Volume/Issue: 2007/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , and Andrew Swiston

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

ISBN: 9781451867466

Keywords: international business cycles, vector autoregressions, correlation, equation, covariance,

VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of small industrial countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate si...

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy1

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy1 »

Source: The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Volume/Issue: 2015/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513509846

Keywords: Tight oil, shale oil, fracking revolution, oil price decline, oil supply, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, oil, prices, oil prices

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2...

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment »

Source: Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Volume/Issue: 2020/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruoyun Mao , and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2020

ISBN: 9781513546797

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Real interest rates, Business cycles, Economic sectors, government spending effects, fiscal multiplier, regime-switching policy, monetary and fiscal policy interaction, nonlinear New Keynesian models

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multiplie...

A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands - Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands - Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change »

Source: A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands - Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Volume/Issue: 2019/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ryota Nakatani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2019

ISBN: 9781513511047

Keywords: Economic stabilization, Public financial management, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Business cycles, Fiscal Rule, Expenditure Rule, Recurrent Expenditure, Natural Disaster, Climate Change

A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertai...

Three Cycles
			: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity

Three Cycles : Housing, Credit, and Real Activity »

Volume/Issue: 2009/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , Alain Kabundi , Deniz Igan , Francisco Nadal De Simone , and Marcelo Pinheiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873788.001

ISBN: 9781451873788

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, house prices, business cycle, lead, spillovers,

We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House pric...

Foreign Entanglements
			: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries

Foreign Entanglements : Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2007/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , and Andrew Swiston

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867466.001

ISBN: 9781451867466

Keywords: international business cycles, vector autoregressions, correlation, equation, covariance,

VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of small industrial countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate si...

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2015/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509846.001

ISBN: 9781513509846

Keywords: Tight oil, shale oil, fracking revolution, oil price decline, oil supply, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, oil, prices, oil prices

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2...

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment »

Volume/Issue: 2020/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruoyun Mao , and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513546797.001

ISBN: 9781513546797

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Real interest rates, Business cycles, Economic sectors, government spending effects, fiscal multiplier, regime-switching policy, monetary and fiscal policy interaction, nonlinear New Keynesian models

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multiplie...