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Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment

Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment »

Source: Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment : A Case for Gradualism

Volume/Issue: 2002/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2002

ISBN: 9781451846980

Keywords: reform, sequencing, gradualism, big bang, uncertainty, ambiguity, flexibility, reform outcomes, reform package, expected value

Ambiguity, as opposed to uncertainty, reflects lack of sufficient information about distribution and payoffs of infrequent events. Reforms are infrequent events, undertaken in ambiguous second-best environments whe...

Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength

Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength »

Source: Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength

Volume/Issue: 2004/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

ISBN: 9781451853896

Keywords: risk, Knightian uncertainty, vertical and horizontal integration, institutions, probability, probabilities, investors, investment decisions, expected value, Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General

Institutional transparency makes future contingencies more easily predictable for investors. Greater transparency can be achieved through vertical and horizontal integration of policy rules, which may result in low...

Benchmark Priors Revisited

Benchmark Priors Revisited »

Source: Benchmark Priors Revisited : On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging

Volume/Issue: 2009/202

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Feldkircher , and Stefan Zeugner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

ISBN: 9781451873498

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, hyper-g prior, shrinkage factor, Zellner&;amp;#x2019;s g prior, model uncertainty, growth econometrics, noise, probabilities, statistics, bayes factor

Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and...

The Effect of Capital Controlson Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Under Country Risk with Intangible Assets

The Effect of Capital Controlson Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Under Country Risk with Intangible Assets »

Source: The Effect of Capital Controlson Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Under Country Risk with Intangible Assets

Volume/Issue: 2007/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kinga Elo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2007

ISBN: 9781451866438

Keywords: Foreign direct investments, decisions under uncertainty, fdi, capital control, direct investment, foreign direct investment, General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation, Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation,

This paper examines how capital controls affect FDI decisions and how the impact of these restrictive measures varies with different levels of country risk. We construct a model of firms' FDI decisions, broadly in...

Trade Integration and Political Turbulence

Trade Integration and Political Turbulence »

Source: Trade Integration and Political Turbulence : Environmental Policy Consequences

Volume/Issue: 2001/150

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Muthukumara Mani , and Per Fredriksson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

ISBN: 9781451856965

Keywords: political instability, lobbying, uncertainty, environmental regulations, environmental policy, trade integration, environmental policies, economic integration, Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections

This paper seeks to contribute to the unresolved issue of the effect of economic integration on environmental policy. In particular, we discuss the joint impact of trade openness and political uncertainty. Our theo...

Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment
			: A Case for Gradualism

Primeron Reforms in a Second-Best Ambiguous Environment : A Case for Gradualism »

Volume/Issue: 2002/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846980.001

ISBN: 9781451846980

Keywords: reform, sequencing, gradualism, big bang, uncertainty, ambiguity, flexibility, reform outcomes, reform package, expected value

Ambiguity, as opposed to uncertainty, reflects lack of sufficient information about distribution and payoffs of infrequent events. Reforms are infrequent events, undertaken in ambiguous second-best environments whe...

Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength

Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength »

Volume/Issue: 2004/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451853896.001

ISBN: 9781451853896

Keywords: risk, Knightian uncertainty, vertical and horizontal integration, institutions, probability, probabilities, investors, investment decisions, expected value, Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General

Institutional transparency makes future contingencies more easily predictable for investors. Greater transparency can be achieved through vertical and horizontal integration of policy rules, which may result in low...

Benchmark Priors Revisited
			: On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging

Benchmark Priors Revisited : On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging »

Volume/Issue: 2009/202

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Feldkircher , and Stefan Zeugner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873498.001

ISBN: 9781451873498

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, hyper-g prior, shrinkage factor, Zellner&;amp;#x2019;s g prior, model uncertainty, growth econometrics, noise, probabilities, statistics, bayes factor

Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and...

The Effect of Capital Controlson Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Under Country Risk with Intangible Assets

The Effect of Capital Controlson Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Under Country Risk with Intangible Assets »

Volume/Issue: 2007/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kinga Elo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866438.001

ISBN: 9781451866438

Keywords: Foreign direct investments, decisions under uncertainty, fdi, capital control, direct investment, foreign direct investment, General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation, Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation,

This paper examines how capital controls affect FDI decisions and how the impact of these restrictive measures varies with different levels of country risk. We construct a model of firms' FDI decisions, broadly in...

Trade Integration and Political Turbulence
			: Environmental Policy Consequences

Trade Integration and Political Turbulence : Environmental Policy Consequences »

Volume/Issue: 2001/150

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Muthukumara Mani , and Per Fredriksson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451856965.001

ISBN: 9781451856965

Keywords: political instability, lobbying, uncertainty, environmental regulations, environmental policy, trade integration, environmental policies, economic integration, Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections

This paper seeks to contribute to the unresolved issue of the effect of economic integration on environmental policy. In particular, we discuss the joint impact of trade openness and political uncertainty. Our theo...