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Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information

Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information »

Volume/Issue: 2011/263

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Liliana Schumacher , and Theodore Barnhill

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463924614.001

ISBN: 9781463924614

Keywords: Solvency risk, systemic liquidity, probability, banking, banking system, bank failures, probabilities, General Financial Markets: Other,

This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for modeling correlated systemic solvency and liquidity risks for a banking system. Using a forward looking simulation of many risk factors applied to detailed bal...

Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information

Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information »

Source: Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information

Volume/Issue: 2011/263

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Liliana Schumacher , and Theodore Barnhill

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463924614

Keywords: Solvency risk, systemic liquidity, probability, banking, banking system, bank failures, probabilities, General Financial Markets: Other,

This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for modeling correlated systemic solvency and liquidity risks for a banking system. Using a forward looking simulation of many risk factors applied to detailed bal...

Benchmark Priors Revisited

Benchmark Priors Revisited »

Source: Benchmark Priors Revisited : On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging

Volume/Issue: 2009/202

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Feldkircher , and Stefan Zeugner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

ISBN: 9781451873498

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, hyper-g prior, shrinkage factor, Zellner&;amp;#x2019;s g prior, model uncertainty, growth econometrics, noise, probabilities, statistics, bayes factor

Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and...

Benchmark Priors Revisited
			: On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging

Benchmark Priors Revisited : On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging »

Volume/Issue: 2009/202

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Feldkircher , and Stefan Zeugner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873498.001

ISBN: 9781451873498

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, hyper-g prior, shrinkage factor, Zellner&;amp;#x2019;s g prior, model uncertainty, growth econometrics, noise, probabilities, statistics, bayes factor

Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and...

Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate

Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate »

Volume/Issue: 2007/290

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcos Souto , and Theodore Barnhill

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451868531.001

ISBN: 9781451868531

Keywords: stochastic volatility, fat-tail distributions, Monte Carlo estimation, covariances, time series, probability, probabilities, multivariate stochastic volatility,

Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is pos...

Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate

Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate »

Source: Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate

Volume/Issue: 2007/290

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcos Souto , and Theodore Barnhill

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2007

ISBN: 9781451868531

Keywords: stochastic volatility, fat-tail distributions, Monte Carlo estimation, covariances, time series, probability, probabilities, multivariate stochastic volatility,

Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is pos...

Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks
			: Applications to Stress Testing Under Data-Restricted Environments

Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks : Applications to Stress Testing Under Data-Restricted Environments »

Volume/Issue: 2006/283

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Miguel Segoviano Basurto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451865431.001

ISBN: 9781451865431

Keywords: Portfolio credit risk measurement, macroeconomic shock measurement, multivariate density estimation, entropy distribution, credit risk, probability, equation, probabilities, Econometric and Statistical Methods: Other, Model Evaluation and Selection

Portfolio credit risk measurement is greatly affected by data constraints, especially when focusing on loans given to unlisted firms. Standard methodologies adopt convenient, but not necessarily properly specified...

How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources?

How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources? »

Source: How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources?

Volume/Issue: 2006/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2006

ISBN: 9781451864991

Keywords: prediction, IMF lending capacity, IMF income position, probability, current account, predictions, current account balance, credit tranches, Global Outlook, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

The main objective of this paper is to quantify the relationship between the global economic environment and the number of Stand-By Arrangements (SBAs). The results suggest that oil prices, world interest rates, an...

How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources?

How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources? »

Volume/Issue: 2006/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451864991.001

ISBN: 9781451864991

Keywords: prediction, IMF lending capacity, IMF income position, probability, current account, predictions, current account balance, credit tranches, Global Outlook, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

The main objective of this paper is to quantify the relationship between the global economic environment and the number of Stand-By Arrangements (SBAs). The results suggest that oil prices, world interest rates, an...

Monitoring and Commitment in Bank Lending Behavior

Monitoring and Commitment in Bank Lending Behavior »

Volume/Issue: 2005/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rodolphe Blavy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451862416.001

ISBN: 9781451862416

Keywords: Bank, monitoring, commitment, asymmetry of information, probability, equation, bank lending, loan commitment, Asymmetric and Private Information, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

The paper proposes a theoretical argument on the nature of bank lending, based on the idea that, through commitment and monitoring, banks overcome basic informational asymmetries with borrowers. By bringing togethe...