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Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment »

Source: Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Volume/Issue: 2020/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruoyun Mao , and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2020

ISBN: 9781513546797

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Real interest rates, Business cycles, Economic sectors, government spending effects, fiscal multiplier, regime-switching policy, monetary and fiscal policy interaction, nonlinear New Keynesian models

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multiplie...

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment »

Volume/Issue: 2020/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruoyun Mao , and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513546797.001

ISBN: 9781513546797

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Real interest rates, Business cycles, Economic sectors, government spending effects, fiscal multiplier, regime-switching policy, monetary and fiscal policy interaction, nonlinear New Keynesian models

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multiplie...

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment »

Volume/Issue: 2020/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Thomas Cosimano , Celine Rochon , and Julieta Yung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513531861.001

ISBN: 9781513531861

Keywords: Interest rate increases, Discount rates, Risk premium, Financial markets, Financial instruments, Interest rate risk, non-linear stochastic discount factor, investment portfolio, term structure model, risk aversion distribution

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a mar...

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment*

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment* »

Source: Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Volume/Issue: 2020/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Thomas Cosimano , Celine Rochon , and Julieta Yung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513531861

Keywords: Interest rate increases, Discount rates, Risk premium, Financial markets, Financial instruments, Interest rate risk, non-linear stochastic discount factor, investment portfolio, term structure model, risk aversion distribution

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a mar...

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus1

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus1 »

Source: The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus

Volume/Issue: 2019/244

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pragyan Deb , Albe Gjonbalaj , and Swarnali Hannan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2019

ISBN: 9781513516097

Keywords: Accounting, Aging, Assets, Balance of trade, Bank deposits, Bilateral trade, Bonds, Capital, Capital account, Capital flows

China's current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expans...

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus »

Volume/Issue: 2019/244

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pragyan Deb , Albe Gjonbalaj , and Swarnali Hannan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513516097.001

ISBN: 9781513516097

Keywords: Accounting, Aging, Assets, Balance of trade, Bank deposits, Bilateral trade, Bonds, Capital, Capital account, Capital flows

China's current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expans...

Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model*

Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model* »

Source: Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model

Volume/Issue: 2019/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stefan Mittnik , Willi Semmler , and Alexander Haider

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498320849

Keywords: Real sector, Economic growth, Interest costs, Interest rates on loans, Low income countries, climate economics, disaster risk, macro feedbacks, multi-phase macro model, monetary and financial policies

Recent research in financial economics has shown that rare large disasters have the potential to disrupt financial sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often ent...

Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model

Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model »

Volume/Issue: 2019/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stefan Mittnik , Willi Semmler , and Alexander Haider

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320849.001

ISBN: 9781498320849

Keywords: Real sector, Economic growth, Interest costs, Interest rates on loans, Low income countries, climate economics, disaster risk, macro feedbacks, multi-phase macro model, monetary and financial policies

Recent research in financial economics has shown that rare large disasters have the potential to disrupt financial sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often ent...

Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries

Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2019/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tokhir Mirzoev , and Ling Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 May 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498314749.001

ISBN: 9781498314749

Keywords: Consumption, Public investments, Poverty, Capital, Real interest rates, Fiscal policy, oil exporters, permanent income hypothesis, fiscal rules, PIH

We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece-the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)-is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or...

Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries1

Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries1 »

Source: Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries

Volume/Issue: 2019/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tokhir Mirzoev , and Ling Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 May 2019

ISBN: 9781498314749

Keywords: Consumption, Public investments, Poverty, Capital, Real interest rates, Fiscal policy, oil exporters, permanent income hypothesis, fiscal rules, PIH

We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece-the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)-is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or...