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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa

Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty

The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than envisaged in October 2018.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019

Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

The April 2019 GFSR finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative.

Tonga : Technical Assistance Report-Climate Change Policy Assessment

Tonga : Technical Assistance Report-Climate Change Policy Assessment »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 192020/212

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513548791.002

ISBN: 9781513548791

Keywords: Economic reforms, Economic growth, Financial management, Public financial management, Poverty, ISCR, CR, NIIP, development partner, disaster risk

Tonga is one of the world's most exposed countries to climate change and natural disasters. It suffered the highest loss from natural disasters in the world (as a ratio to GDP) in 2018 and is among the top five ove...

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment »

Article

Source: Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Volume/Issue: 2020/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruoyun Mao , and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2020

ISBN: 9781513546797

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Real interest rates, Business cycles, Economic sectors, government spending effects, fiscal multiplier, regime-switching policy, monetary and fiscal policy interaction, nonlinear New Keynesian models

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multiplie...

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2020/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruoyun Mao , and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513546797.001

ISBN: 9781513546797

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Real interest rates, Business cycles, Economic sectors, government spending effects, fiscal multiplier, regime-switching policy, monetary and fiscal policy interaction, nonlinear New Keynesian models

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multiplie...

This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds

This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2020/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 June 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513546216.001

ISBN: 9781513546216

Keywords: Climatic changes, Bond markets, Bond yields, Municipal bonds, Financial statistics, Climate change, vulnerability, resilience, government bond yields and spreads, WP

Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change an...

This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds

This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds »

Article

Source: This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds

Volume/Issue: 2020/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 June 2020

ISBN: 9781513546216

Keywords: Climatic changes, Bond markets, Bond yields, Municipal bonds, Financial statistics, Climate change, vulnerability, resilience, government bond yields and spreads, WP

Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change an...

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020, Middle East and Central Asia »

Book

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 April 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513536811.086

ISBN: 9781513536811

Keywords: Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, Economic growth, Oil prices, Market economies, Regional economics, Fiscal policy, Financial crisis, Oil crisis, Crisis management strategies

Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. In addition to the devastating toll on human hea...

Chapter 5. Climate Change: Physical Risk and Equity Prices

Chapter 5. Climate Change: Physical Risk and Equity Prices »

Chapter

Source: Global Financial Stability Report, April 2020 : Markets in the Time of COVID-19

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 April 2020

ISBN: 9781513529196

Keywords: Financial crisis, Health, Banking, Financial stability, Global Financial Stability Report, Global Financial Stability Risks, International financial stability, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, coronavirus, covid-19

Chapter 5 at a Glance The impact of large climatic disasters on equity prices has been modest in the past....

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2020/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Thomas Cosimano , Celine Rochon , and Julieta Yung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513531861.001

ISBN: 9781513531861

Keywords: Interest rate increases, Discount rates, Risk premium, Financial markets, Financial instruments, Interest rate risk, non-linear stochastic discount factor, investment portfolio, term structure model, risk aversion distribution

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a mar...

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment*

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment* »

Article

Source: Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Volume/Issue: 2020/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Thomas Cosimano , Celine Rochon , and Julieta Yung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513531861

Keywords: Interest rate increases, Discount rates, Risk premium, Financial markets, Financial instruments, Interest rate risk, non-linear stochastic discount factor, investment portfolio, term structure model, risk aversion distribution

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a mar...

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil »

Journal Issue

Volume/Issue: 2020/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nooman Rebei , and Rashid Sbia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513528601.001

ISBN: 9781513528601

Keywords: Oil prices, Supply and demand, Oil production, Purchasing power parity, Real sector, Oil market, Vector autoregressions, Narrative analysis, Bayesian estimation, Kalman filtering

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evide...