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Brazil: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
January 2001
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X. Medium- and Long-Term Current Account Sustainability1

A. Introduction

1. Over most of the last 30 years, Brazil has run current account deficits of over 3 percent of GDP on average. Since 1980, rather sticky service account deficits—stemming mainly from a heavy external debt service burden—have offset trade surpluses averaging about 2 percent of GDP. This, together with public sector borrowing requirements of above 4 percent of GDP on average, have contributed to Brazil’s external vulnerability, in particular during periods of adverse movements in the terms of trade and/or heightened international concern about emerging market economies.

2. The adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime in early 1999 and strengthened macroeconomic management, however, have helped Brazil reduce external vulnerabilities and improve its terms of access to international capital markets. In this context, although the external current account is likely still to post a considerable deficit in 2000 (about 4.2 percent of GDP), concerns about short-term sustainability have abated, as foreign direct investments and other long-term capital inflows continue to be strong, and more than sufficient to meet Brazil’s external financing requirements. Concerns remain, however, about the persistence of large current account deficits and the sustainability of capital inflows in the medium and longer term, and their implications for the value of the real, macroeconomic performance, and the scope for policy makers to pursue growth-enhancing economic and structural policies.

3. This section investigates the relationship between current account balances and those variables (domestic and international) that are expected to influence the current account in the medium and long run through their impact on savings and investment. The prospects for Brazil’s external current account in the medium and long run are explored through macroeconomic simulations using the IMF’s multicountry dynamic model (MULTIMOD), which was modified to integrate Brazil.2 The dynamic reaction of the current and trade accounts to structural and macroeconomic shocks with different degrees of persistence are discussed.

4. According to the medium-term baseline scenario, fiscal discipline, a gradual improvement in the terms of trade, continued import substitution, and increased confidence toward Brazil in international financial markets would lead to a gradual reduction in Brazil’s current account deficit. Its share of the rest-of-the-world private savings would decrease and stabilize to about 0.2 percent by 2006—against an average of 0.5 percent over the period 1995–99—suggesting that future current account deficits would continue to be financeable. The simulations show, however, that Brazil remains vulnerable to domestic and international shocks as these tend to affect both the trade account and the debt service burden, through higher risk premia. They underscore the need for Brazil to run a prudent fiscal policy, to continue improving access to international financial markets, and to carry on with the necessary structural reforms to foster competitiveness—in particular by reducing fiscal, transportation and handling costs for exports—hence ensuring a sustainable current account position over the medium and long run.3

5. Section A summarizes the baseline medium-term external scenario and presents some alternative scenarios. Section B assesses the impact on the baseline scenario of specific domestic and international shocks in a small open-country setup, whereas Section C examines some of these shocks in a multicountry context. Finally, a possible extension to this line of analysis is briefly discussed in Section D.

B. The Baseline Medium-Term External Outlook and Alternative Scenarios

6. Figure 10.1 presents the baseline medium-term external outlook for Brazil for the period 2001–25. This is predicated on the basis of the general macro economic assumptions, including continued fiscal discipline and a declining domestic public debt-to-GDP ratio, as discussed in Chapter 2 on fiscal sustainability.

7. Specifically with regard to the external sector, the trade account should perform increasingly, though not sharply, better, mainly because of: (i) a gradual recovery in the terms of trade after the large drop in 1998–99; (ii) improvements in nonprice export competitiveness as a result of further structural public sector reforms, including a reduction of distortions in the tax system, and productivity-enhancing investments in infrastructure; (iii) continued import substitution as the industrial structure of the economy expands and deepens; and (iv) a smaller impact of crude oil on the total cost of imports as a result of somewhat lower imported crude oil, which should also help mitigate the impact of oil price volatility.4

8. Developments in the service account, however, will continue over the next few years to offset in part the marginal gains in the trade account. Active management of Brazil’s external liabilities, with a view to establishing a benchmark yield curve in several currencies and to lengthening the debt profile, including through further debt exchanges, should continue to contribute to a steady reduction of the country risk premium in the context of sustained domestic and international economic and financial stability. The related positive impact on the service account will, however, continue to be somewhat compensated for by other factor and nonfactor service items. After a period of higher reinvestment, dividends and profit remittances will slightly increase in the outer years as these go back to their trend level as a share of the outstanding stock of foreign direct investments. Expenditures on services for transportation and travel will increase as trade and real wages recover amid foreign exchange stability.5

9. The current account deficit is, accordingly, expected to improve only gradually over the next few years to about 3 percent of GDP in 2006, and to reach its long-term level of 2 percent of GDP by 2011.6 The further opening of the telecommunication, energy, and financial sectors will continue to attract substantial foreign direct investments from leading international multinationals wishing to establish and/or to strengthen their foothold in the region. Similarly, the deepening of the domestic financial system will foster portfolio, in particular, equity capital inflows. Accordingly, foreign investments are projected to continue to finance most of the overall current account.

10. Private savings are projected to decrease somewhat to about 18 percent of GDP by 2006, partially compensating for increasing public savings (partial Ricardian offset), and to stabilize at around that level in the long term. Private investments are projected to follow a similar path; to rise to above 19 percent of GDP by 2005 and to remain at about that level thereafter. Both are consistent with the average historical ratios.

11. Scenario I explores the impact of higher public debt as a result of higher public sector liabilities, including previously unregistered liabilities, in the financial and nonfinancial sector. These additional liabilities—about 0.5 percent of GDP higher than in the fiscal baseline over the period 2001–10—are modeled as transfers to the nonhousehold sector; they do not, therefore, directly impact on household permanent income, hence, not directly affecting the path of consumption/savings. Scenario II considers the impact of higher public consumption (goods and wages) that is financed by additional debt. Current expenditure as a share of GDP is projected to be 1 percent higher than in the fiscal baseline over the period 2001–07 and to gradually fall to the baseline level by 2012. The weaker fiscal discipline, which could also reflect the political cycle in Brazil, would also adversely impact the confidence of international financial markets, and, hence, the risk premium.7 The different assumptions about risk premia in Scenarios I and II stem from the fact that, whereas in the former higher public debt results from the recognition of specific liabilities, in the latter higher public debt is the consequence of larger government absorption (on goods and wages), which could call into question the authorities’ commitment to fiscal discipline.

Figure 10.1.Brazil: Baseline Scenario

Source: Fund staff estimates.

12. Scenario III assumes higher debt-neutral (tax financed) public social expenditure on health and education. The size and pattern of the shock to fiscal expenditure is the same as in Scenario II, but the expenditure mix and its financing is different. The improvements of the safety net provision and human capital, which these social expenditures are expected to have over the medium term, would also positively affect productivity in the economy. Accordingly, productivity is assumed to be 1 percent higher than in the baseline over the period 2005–10, and to fall gradually to its baseline level in the long run.8Scenario IV explicitly explores the impact of a monetary shock (hard landing) in the United States, assuming a gradual contraction in the stock of money supply over the period 2001–03. This last scenario is best examined in the richer multicountry framework of Section C.

13. In some of these scenarios, more than one control variable is shocked at the same time to take account of the intertwined nature of their economic effects. For instance, as noted, higher debt-financed public consumption (Scenario II) is likely to impact negatively the country’s risk premium, including by weakening the likelihood for a debt upgrade. In this context, uncertainty about a country’s willingness/capacity to meet its debt service obligations can impinge upon the sustainability of a country’s current account beyond the constraints imposed by pure intertemporal solvency.

C. The Small Open-Country Framework

14. Figures 10.2, 10. 3, and 10.4 summarize illustrative simulations for the period 2001–25, expressed as deviations from the baseline, under Scenarios I, II, and III, using the open small-country version of MULTIMOD for Brazil.9

15. In Scenario I, higher public sector borrowing requirements would have the usual crowding-out effect on private investments through higher interest rates and a more appreciated real effective exchange rate. Lower government savings—as taxes are not raised initially to offset the higher interest bill—would more than compensate the increase in private savings during the period of the shock—reflecting an expectation of higher taxes in the future.10 The impact on the current account would be mild overall. The appreciated real effective exchange rate would impact negatively on net exports of goods and nonfactor services well beyond 2010. After 2010, the higher public debt is reduced mainly through increases in taxation, resulting in lower private savings-to-GDP ratios. The current account would deteriorate and net foreign liabilities would be about 2 percent of GDP higher by 2025.11 The current account as a share of rest-of-the-world private savings would, however, remain substantially unchanged.

16. Scenario II is a case of laxer fiscal discipline. The channels through which laxer fiscal discipline affect private savings and investment, and the current account are higher government absorption and risk premia on Brazilian financial instruments.12 The impact of debt-financed higher spending on the current account are similar to those discussed in Scenario I, but substantially stronger overall. In this case, higher risk premia, for the duration of the shock, would point toward a more depreciated currency than in the baseline scenario, offsetting the real appreciation generated by higher public sector absorption and public sector borrowing requirements. The initial impact on net exports of goods and nonfactor services, and the current account would therefore be positive. After 2005, the positive impact on net exports would start to fade away and the current account would begin to deteriorate by up to more than 1 percent of GDP in 2009 and remain worse than in the baseline scenario for several years. Net foreign liabilities would be higher from the outset, reflecting the valuation impact of a depreciated currency, and about 8.5 percent of GDP higher than in the baseline by 2020. In terms of share of rest-of-the-world private savings, Brazil’s external financing requirements would increase by almost 0.2 percent by 2010, reaching a share that is double that in the baseline.

Figure 10.2.Brazil: Scenario I

Source: Fund staff estimates.

Figure 10.3.Brazil: Scenario II

Source: Fund staff estimates.

Figure 10.4.Brazil: Scenario III

Source: Fund staff estimates.

17. In Scenario III, debt-neutral higher government spending on health and education is financed through higher taxes, leaving the public sector borrowing requirement unchanged. Higher government absorption would not be matched by higher private savings, as taxes would increase from the start. Accordingly, the current account would deteriorate somewhat—up to about 0.3 percent of GDP in 2007—before returning to its baseline level by 2025. The deterioration of the current account would be explained mainly through smaller net exports of goods and nonfactor services as a result of real appreciation due to larger government absorption. Compared to Scenarios I and II, however, economic activity would grow substantially stronger, reflecting the envisaged increase in productivity triggered by the improvement in human capital. Net foreign liabilities would be at most about 3 percent of GDP higher than in the baseline by 2012, while the current account as share of rest-of-the-world private savings would remain substantially unchanged.

D. The Multicountry Framework

18. To assess the impact on Brazil’s external balance of Scenario IV, illustrative simulations were generated using the multicountry version of MULTIMOD.13 This richer multicountry setting provides additional information on the likely international feedback to domestic shocks in Brazil, but, more importantly, given Brazil’s relative small share of the world economy, on the first- and second-round effects on Brazil external balance of a shock in a major G7 country.14 Such a shock to the international outlook is explicitly considered in Scenario IV. Figure 10.5 summarizes the simulation results, expressed as deviations from the baseline.

19. Scenario IV shows the impact of a strong tightening of monetary policy in the United States.15 The shock to Brazil’s economy come through three main channels: domestic consumption and savings, the trade account, and interest payments on net foreign liabilities.16 Given a certain level of fiscal balanced, higher interest payments on net foreign public debt would require higher taxes, and therefore reduce disposable income. Private consumption, and hence real GDP, would decrease amid a contraction in private savings. The depreciation of the real effective exchange rate would curb imports and somewhat offset the drop in exports generated by the slowdown in the U.S. Despite the improvement in net exports of goods and services, the Brazilian current account would deteriorate by about 0.7 percent of GDP on average in the period 2001–05. However, the impact on Brazil’s required external financing as a share of rest-of-the-world private savings would be smaller than 0.1 percent on average. From the outset, net foreign liabilities would increase by about 6 percent of GDP relative to baseline, before gradually falling back to the baseline level in the long run.

E. Further Research

20. In this section we explored the impact of alternative scenarios about public sector policy and international developments on Brazil’s external balance through macroeconomic simulations using MULTIMOD modified to integrate Brazil. Promising future research could further extend MULTIMOD to incorporate other important Latin American economies so that spillover effects of domestic, regional, and international economic and financial developments on both a single country and the region more widely could be examined in a fully interactive multicountry dynamic framework.

Figure 10.5.Brazil: Scenario IV

Source: Fund staff estimates.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table 1.Brazil: Macroeconomic Flows and Balances
199419951996199719981999
(In percent of GDP)
Total domestic expenditure99.6101.8101.9102.4102.0101.1
Consumption77.579.581.080.980.880.7
General government17.919.618.518.218.818.9
Private sector59.659.962.562.762.161.8
Investment22.122.320.921.521.220.4
General government3.62.52.32.22.21.7
Private sector and public enterprises 1/18.519.818.619.319.018.7
Saving22.122.320.921.521.220.4
Gross national saving21.819.717.917.716.915.7
External saving0.32.63.03.84.34.7
Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and Fund staff estimates.

Includes changes in stocks.

Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and Fund staff estimates.

Includes changes in stocks.

Table 2.Brazil: GDP and Real GDP per Capita
GDP in current reaisGDP in

millions of 1999 reais
Real GDP

per capita in 1999 reais
Implicit GDP deflator (percent change)Population (millions)Real GDP annual percent changes
Agriculture & livestockIndustryServicesTotal
19861,274755,861.65,613.4149.2134,653-8.011.78.17.5
19874,038782,316.85,699.2206.2137,26815.01.03.13.5
198829,376781,534.45,589.6628.0139,8190.8-2.62.3-0.1
1989425,595806,543.55,667.61,304.4142,3072.82.93.53.2
199011,548,795771,458.95,354.02,737.0144,091-3.7-8.2-0.8-4.3
199160,285,999779,404.95,323.5416.7146,4081.40.32.01.0
1992640,958,768775,196.15,213.7969.0148,6844.9-4.21.5-0.5
199314,097,114,182813,335.85,388.71,996.2150,933-0.17.03.24.9
1994349,204,679,000860,915.95,621.62,240.2153,1435.56.74.75.9
1995646,191,517,000897,246.65,776.877.6155,3194.11.94.54.2
1996778,886,727,000921,113.35,849.017.4157,4823.13.32.32.7
1997870,743,034,000951,233.75,958.88.3159,636-0.44.72.53.3
1998913,735,044,000953,326.55,892.44.7161,7901.1-1.41.00.2
1999960,857,736,000960,857.75,860.84.3163,9489.9-1.61.50.8
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Table 3.Brazil: National Accounts at Current Prices(In millions of reais)
199419951996199719981999
Consumption expenditure270,644513,562630,814704,200738,747775,098
General government62,388126,652144,001158,502171,746181,160
Private sector208,256386,910486,813545,698567,001593,938
Gross capital formation77,333144,027162,953187,187193,435196,452
General government12,60916,38217,97319,19819,91916,524
Private sector and
public enterprises64,725127,645144,981167,989173,516179,928
Total domestic expenditure347,978657,589793,767891,387932,182971,550
Net exports of goods and nonfactor services1,227-11,397-14,880-20,644-18,447-10,692
Exports33,22049,91754,43065,35669,727101,809
Imports31,99361,31469,31186,00088,174112,501
GDP at market prices349,205646,192778,887870,743913,735960,858
Net factor payments abroad-4,051-7,490-9,213-11,199-13,863-27,521
GNP at market prices345,153638,701769,674859,544899,872933,337
Net unrequited transfers received from abroad1,6583,6482,9132,3882,0643,687
Gross national income at market prices346,811642,349772,587861,932901,935937,024
Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and Fund staff estimates.
Table 4.Brazil: National Accounts at Constant Prices(In 1994 millions of reais)
19941995199619971998Prel.

1999
Consumption expenditure270,644289,627298,981308,295308,628305,069
Percent change7.03.23.10.1-1.2
Gross capital formation77,33383,59285,96193,07492,51986,586
Percent change8.12.88.3-0.6-6.4
Total domestic expenditure347,978373,219384,942401,370401,147391,655
Percent change7.33.14.3-0.1-2.4
Net exports of goods and nonfactor services1,227-9,265-11,311-15,518-14,446-1,899
Percent change 1/-855.0-22.1-37.26.986.9
Exports of goods and nonfactor services33,22032,54532,75236,40338,79643,469
Percent change-2.00.611.16.612.0
Imports of GNFS31,99341,81044,06351,92153,24245,368
Percent change30.75.417.82.5-14.8
GDP at market prices349,205363,954373,630385,852386,701389,756
Percent change4.22.73.30.20.8
Net factor payments abroad-4,051-7,490-9,213-11,199-13,863-27,521
GNP at market prices345,153356,464364,417374,653372,838362,235
Percent change6.83.32.22.8-0.5-2.8
Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and Fund staff estimates.

Contribution to growth.

Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and Fund staff estimates.

Contribution to growth.

Table 5.Brazil: Industrial Production(Annual percentage change)
1994199519961997199819992000 1/
Total7.61.81.73.9-2.1-0.76.8
Mineral extraction4.73.39.87.212.49.18.4
Manufacturing industry7.81.71.13.6-3.3-1.76.6
Nonmetallic minerals3.14.16.37.4-0.4-3.22.9
Metallurgy10.2-1.81.66.0-3.8-1.19.1
Machinery21.1-4.5-12.87.2-4.0-7.214.7
Electrical and communications equipment19.014.64.7-1.8-9.8-11.510.4
Transportation equipment13.44.1-0.310.7-14.6-5.118.6
Wood-2.6-3.42.13.9-6.26.98.3
Furniture1.26.213.7-1.5-8.2-3.08.6
Paper and cardboard2.80.42.92.90.44.84.7
Rubber4.0-0.3-0.54.1-7.64.515.3
Leather and hides-4.3-16.7-1.9-1.7-13.6-3.6-2.3
Chemicals6.6-0.55.05.13.90.93.6
Pharmaceuticals-2.518.1-8.611.44.0-0.4-7.3
Perfumes, soaps and candles2.55.34.15.23.27.21.4
Plastics4.19.711.33.6-2.4-6.2-4.7
Textiles3.8-5.8-5.8-6.5-6.82.18.8
Clothing, footwear and cloth goods-2.1-6.9-2.5-6.7-4.6-3.47.5
Food products2.27.75.31.01.43.1-1.2
Beverages10.417.2-3.3-0.3-2.20.15.5
Tobacco-14.8-5.112.522.2-22.7-7.4-8.8
Memorandum items:
Capital goods18.70.3-14.14.8-1.6-9.18.5
Intermediate goods6.50.22.94.6-0.71.87.8
Consumer goods4.46.25.31.2-5.4-2.93.5
Durable15.114.511.23.5-19.6-9.322.1
Semidurable and nondurable1.94.23.70.5-1.1-1.3-0.8
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Production in the January-June 2000 period compared to that of the same period of the previous year.

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Production in the January-June 2000 period compared to that of the same period of the previous year.

Table 6.Brazil: Real Retail Sales in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area 1/(Seasonally Adjusted)(1992 average = 100)
General

Commerce
Consumer

Goods 2/
Durable

Goods
SemidurablesNondurablesAutomobileConstruction

Materials
1999
January159.0194.2190.8122.7206.591.298.2
February152.0192.1180.4128.3207.555.994.0
March156.5192.1180.3125.9210.877.299.3
April151.3184.8178.0131.2200.875.394.6
May155.4192.0187.7136.8205.470.0102.0
June154.2191.8189.1129.3202.068.0103.3
July154.8194.8200.9124.8200.167.5102.8
August157.3196.1195.9119.9206.969.9100.9
September156.2196.6196.3121.5207.568.8103.6
October161.4204.1213.8117.1208.368.3106.1
November162.4202.4212.3120.6206.571.8104.4
December172.5211.8231.2117.5210.673.7105.2
2000
January165.0205.2209.3114.1217.378.1105.7
February170.8206.8214.5110.9217.595.5107.7
March160.4201.7215.499.5211.069.3102.5
April181.7222.8230.778.3249.880.0105.1
May171.3213.2217.079.4238.979.8100.6
June173.3216.1219.578.2241.483.1103.9
July178.7221.7224.481.7247.884.4103.6
August174.2216.9221.073.0242.581.2102.4
September178.6221.3223.570.5245.883.7104.2
Source: State of São Paulo Commerce Federation.

Deflated by IPCA.

Includes durable, semidurable and nondurable goods.

Source: State of São Paulo Commerce Federation.

Deflated by IPCA.

Includes durable, semidurable and nondurable goods.

Table 7.Brazil: Price Statistics(Monthly percentage change)
General Price Index 1/ (IGP-DI)Wholesale Price Index (IPA-DI)Construction Cost Index (INCC)Consumer Price Index (INPC)Consumer Price Index (IPCA)
1995
January1.360.873.501.441.70
February1.150.582.091.011.02
March1.811.083.301.621.55
April2.301.992.302.492.43
May0.40-2.038.772.102.67
June2.621.553.122.182.26
July2.242.241.092.462.36
August1.291.730.621.020.99
September-1.08-2.420.671.170.99
October0.23-0.140.860.631.41
November1.331.490.731.511.47
December0.27-0.610.861.651.56
1996
January1.791.311.521.461.34
February0.760.470.110.711.03
March0.22-0.070.980.290.35
April0.700.410.250.931.26
May1.681.342.161.281.22
June1.220.941.541.331.19
July1.091.380.751.201.11
August0.00-0.050.230.500.44
September0.130.410.220.020.15
October0.220.240.260.380.30
November0.280.240.580.340.32
December0.881.210.590.330.47
1997
January1.581.670.320.811.18
February0.420.340.480.450.50
March1.161.590.730.680.51
April0.590.530.230.600.88
May0.300.140.860.110.41
June0.700.241.110.350.54
July0.09-0.090.510.180.22
August-0.04-0.151.18-0.03-0.02
September0.590.920.270.300.06
October0.340.410.150.290.23
November0.831.080.540.150.17
December0.690.870.230.570.43
1998
January0.880.750.330.850.71
February0.02-0.150.480.540.46
March0.230.130.470.490.34
April-0.13-0.28-0.500.450.24
May0.230.130.980.720.50
June0.280.170.390.150.02
July-0.38-0.610.34-0.28-0.12
August-0.17-0.040.22-0.49-0.51
September-0.020.060.01-0.31-0.22
October-0.03-0.190.010.110.02
November-0.18-0.20-0.05-0.18-0.12
December0.981.740.050.420.33
1999
January1.151.580.550.650.70
February4.446.990.981.291.05
March1.982.840.551.281.10
April0.03-0.340.520.470.56
May-0.34-0.820.860.050.30
June1.021.350.410.070.19
July1.592.030.460.741.09
August1.452.150.690.550.56
September1.472.300.860.390.31
October1.892.581.010.961.19
November2.533.590.910.940.95
December1.231.601.040.740.60
2000
January1.021.021.070.610.62
February0.190.170.770.050.13
March0.18-0.050.560.130.22
April0.13-0.020.600.090.42
May0.670.691.35-0.050.01
June0.931.450.730.300.23
July2.262.790.301.391.61
August1.822.560.391.211.31
September0.691.090.260.430.23
Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and Getulio Vargas Foundation.

A weighted average of the IPA-DI (weight of 0.6), INCC (weight of 0.1), and the IPC-DI consumer price index (weight of 0.3).

Sources: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and Getulio Vargas Foundation.

A weighted average of the IPA-DI (weight of 0.6), INCC (weight of 0.1), and the IPC-DI consumer price index (weight of 0.3).

Table 8.Brazil: Consumer Price Index (IPCA)1/(Monthly percentage change)
GeneralFood &

Drink
HousingResidential

Items
ClothingTransportationHealth &

Personal Care
Personal

Expenses
EducationCommunication
1995
January1.700.732.173.150.990.402.264.711370.00
February1.02(0.06)3.652.99(1.19)0.993.100.801.800.00
March1.551.443.821.65(0.69)0.782.662.141.260.00
April2.431.994.242.362.620.762.144.087.360.00
May2.670.512.942.052.641.353.558.516.110.00
June2.26(0.25)4.321.561.214.314.193.476.300.00
July2.360.984.830.550.913.494.442.643.410.00
August0.990.574.46(0.57)(2.62)0.802.461.883.190.00
September0.99(0.03)4.51(0.22)0.110.861.031.381.560.00
October1.410.324.58(0.36)0.822.141.031.500.600.00
November1.471.076.13(0.14)0.200.160.841.602.351.73
December1.560.866.220.93(0.34)(0.13)1.970.900.7223.06
1996
January1.341.282.160.61(0.28)0.842.082.155.242.45
February1.030.111.980.28(3.28)0.711.292.079.0465.16
March0.35(0.02)1.960.00(2.50)0.921.190.332.270.00
April1.260.501.810.260.903.820.820.431.530.00
May1.220.671.940.031.420.7S1.032.570.810.00
June1.190.672.19(0.27)1.092.501.210.500.190.00
July1.110.521.89(0.02)0.292.482.120.300.600.00
August0.44(0.68)2.24(0.04)(0.66)0.881.180.48(0.13)0.00
September0.15(0.58)1.54(0.13)(0.48)0.180.560.130.330.00
October0.300.111.47(0.09)0.820.130.27(0.54)0.070.00
November0.32(0.37)1.360.420.270.480.480.11(0.14)0.00
December0.47(0.48)1.220.890.861.070.80(0.04)0.040.00
1997
January1.180.971.060.730.212.771.080.822.040.00
February0.500.720.940.18(0.83)0.500.600.585.100.00
March0.511.221.13(0.70)(0.50)0.750.35(0.29)0.180.00
April0.38(0.16)1.60(0.39)0.100.470.520.20(0.03)46.16
May0.41(0.92)0.92(0.85)1.280.260.790.580.2713.73
June0.54(0.34)0.60(0.40)(0.10)1.130.600.360.0814.06
July0.22(0.52)0.41(0.39)0.080.940.510.550.190.00
August-0.02(0.57)0.42(0.20)(0.98)0.510.380.14(0.05)0.00
September0.06(0.21)0.25(0.42)0.050.200.410.14(0.06)0.00
October0.230.270.27(0.53)0.560.140.180.440.320.00
November0.170.170.29(0.28)(0.34)0.860.02(0.17)(0.38)0.00
December0.430.590.310.350.380.620.340.310.840.00
1998
January0.711.240.300.35(0.79)0.470.571.591.752.00
February0.460.620.260.36(0.64)0.640.391.023.200.00
March0.340.790.381.15(0.68)0.150.57(0.04)(0.67)0.00
April0.240.850.29(0.20)(0.24)(0.09)0.45(0.05)0.120.00
May0.501.380.13(0.06)0.58(0.07)0.500.40(0.02)0.00
June0.020.130.050.370.38(0.11)0.03(0.41)0.010.00
July-0.12(0.99)0.00(0.52)(0.15)0.360.520.350.470.00
August-0.51(1.20)(0.06)(0.36)(0.81)(0.90)0.250.11(0.23)0.00
September-0.22(0.47)(0.02)(0.37)(0.07)(0.13)0.26(0.55)0.020.00
October0.02(0.02)(0.09)0.050.80(0.26)0.23(0.09)0.210.00
November-0.12(0.46)(0.20)(0.55)0.17(0.24)0.160.430.260.00
December0.330.100.44(0.90)0.350.970.470.311.330.00
1999
January0.700.900.060.27(0.25)1.030.431.634.460.58
February1.052.710.411.50(1.23)2.170.48(0.57)(3.90)0.26
March1.102.010.791.63(0.07)0.981.320.550.560.01
April0.56(0.23)0.661.131.121.131.480.02(0.04)(0.16)
May0.30(0.95)0.180.680.761.231.270.33(0.12)0.00
June0.19(1.28)0.750.450.740.800.500.310.292.23
July1.09(0.24)1.210.080.473.910.420.160.446.52
August0.560.130.840.08(0.12)1.410.93(0.13)0.400.00
September0.310.340.200.130.350.550.69(0.09)0.07(0.24)
October1.191.770.020.341.043.240.400.180.00(0.06)
November0.951.350.430.910.612.150.290.040.16(0.07)
December0.741.570.420.580.700.290.210.280.44(0.03)
2000
January0.610.900.200.400.230.720.620.002.260.99
February0.05(0.46)(0.01)0.53(0.53)0.420.290.292.600.06
March0.13(0.58)0.090.30(1.48)1.960.290.070.000.19
April0.09(0.49)0.020.190.610.470.031.56(0.16)(0.14)
May-0.05(0.79)0.610.280.230.180.16(0.10)0.06(0.01)
June0.300.180.060.340.840.150.670.250.092.62
July1.611.781.290.330.792.980.480.20(0.25)7.61
August1.212.330.530.930.311.510.460.370.33(0.08)
September0.230.530.140.610.57(0.01)(0.11)0.180.260.19
Source: IBGE.

Consumer price index of 11 major cities in Brazil.

Source: IBGE.

Consumer price index of 11 major cities in Brazil.

Table 9.Brazil: Relative Public Sector Prices and Tariffs(Janaury 2000=100)
Petroleum Products
Consumer PricesRefinery Prices
ElectricityTelecommu-nicationGasolineDieselGasolineDieselNatural GasAlcoholMail
1996
January72.928.235.043.557.577.6
February72.946.534.943.557.577.4
March72.946.534.943.557.577.4
April72.946.539.949.857.589.0
May72.946.540.249.857.589.4
June72.946.540.449.857.590.2
July72.946.540.649.857.590.4
August72.946.540.749.857.590.6
September72.946.540.749.857.590.8
October72.946.540.949.857.591.4
November73.646.541.149.857.591.9
December73.846.543.055.562.996.2
1997
January73.846.547.255.562.9108.6
February73.846.547.355.562.9108.4
March73.846.547.455.562.9109.0
April77.868.047.455.562.9109.2
May80.177.347.253.862.9108.3
June80.488.247.253.862.9108.4
July80.488.247.053.862.9108.1
August81.088.246.753.862.9107.4
September81.188.246.853.862.9107.9
October81.188.246.853.862.9107.7
November81.288.248.458.766.1109.7
December81.288.250.058.766.1112.0
1998
January82.189.950.458.766.162.4113.0
February82.189.950.358.766.162.4112.4
March82.189.950.358.766.162.4112.6
April82.389.950.358.766.162.4112.1
May83.089.950.358.766.162.4111.7
June83.089.949.858.766.162.4110.4
July83.089.949.858.766.162.4109.6
August83.089.948.556.162.662.4104.4
September83.089.948.356.162.662.4102.8
October83.089.947.956.162.662.4101.2
November83.389.947.556.162.662.499.5
December83.489.949.861.762.662.495.8
1999
January83.490.550.761.762.662.493.8
February83.490.752.462.563.463.196.7
March83.490.755.069.770.771.495.2
April84.490.658.177.778.880.391.3
May85.190.660.077.778.884.184.3
June91.092.660.591.793.084.183.1
July96.098.668.0100.0100.084.190.1100.0
August97.498.665.398.0100.0100.091.793.9100.0
September97.898.466.398.0100.0100.091.794.3100.0
October97.898.373.398.0100.0100.091.795.2100.0
November99.498.395.599.5100.0100.091.799.6100.0
December100.098.299.9100.1100.0100.091.7100.4100.0
2000
January100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
February100.0100.099.799.6100.0100.0106.098.5100.0
March100.0100.1100.0103.8107.0107.0106.0103.3100.0
April100.299.899.1104.8107.0107.0106.0103.0106.8
May102.0100.098.4104.7107.0107.0106.0103.0122.7
June101.8102.796.9104.7107.0107.0106.0102.1122.7
July106.8111.5106.9112.3123.0123.0125.1115.8122.7
August106.9111.5114.9116.9123.0123.0125.1135.2122.7
Memorandum items:
12-month percentage changes (end of period)
End-1995763.54.012.3
End-19961.669.221.327.69.322.7
End-199710.189.616.35.85.116.4
End-19982.72.0-0.35.1-5.2-14.4
End-199919.99.2100.562.259.647.04.8
August 20009.713.175.919.323.023.036.344.022.7
Sources: IBGE e ANP.
Sources: IBGE e ANP.
Table 10.Brazil: Open Unemployment Rate 1/(In Percent)
1994199519961997199819992000
Annual average5.14.65.45.77.67.6
January5.54.45.35.27.37.77.6
February5.44.35.75.67.47.58.2
March5.94.46.46.08.28.28.1
April5.44.46.05.87.98.07.8
May5.24.55.96.08.27.77.8
June5.44.65.96.17.97.87.4
July5.54.85.66.08.07.57.2
August5.54.95.55.97.87.77.1
September5.15.25.25.77.67.46.7
October4.55.15.15.77.57.5
November4.04.74.65.47.07.3
December3.44.43.84.86.36.3
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Survey data from six metropolitan areas (Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, São Paulo), using a seven-day reference period.

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Survey data from six metropolitan areas (Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, São Paulo), using a seven-day reference period.

Table 11.Brazil: Employment and Real Wages in Industry
(Average 1992 = 100)(Monthly Percent Change)(Annual Percentage Change)
Industrial

Employment
Average

Real Wage
Industrial

Employment
Average

Real Wage
Industrial

Employment
Average

Real Wage
1992December97.3116.1-8.313.7
1993December97.2127.3-0.19.6
1994December97.4147.00.215.5
1995December87.9162.3-9.710.4
1996December81.2163.5-7.70.7
1997December75.1171.7-1.611.0-7.45.0
1998January74.7151.0-0.6-12.1-8.03.3
February74.1151.1-0.80.1-8.43.9
March73.5147.6-0.7-2.3-8.64.9
April72.8142.3-1.0-3.6-9.10.7
May72.4141.2-0.6-0.8-8.8-4.4
June71.8146.8-0.83.9-9.4-0.6
July71.0145.8-1.1-0.7-9.8-3.3
August70.6152.1-0.64.3-9.80.4
September70.2152.2-0.50.1-9.80.8
October69.6151.5-1.0-0.5-9.9-1.3
November69.1156.6-0.63.4-9.41.3
December68.5168.2-0.97.4-8.8-2.0
1999January67.8146.2-1.1-13.1-9.3-3.2
February67.2144.1-0.9-1.4-9.3-4.6
March66.8137.7-0.6-4.4-9.2-6.7
April66.5139.2-0.41.1-8.7-2.2
May66.0140.7-0.71.1-8.8-0.3
June65.5141.0-0.80.2-8.7-3.9
July65.8137.40.5-2.5-7.3-5.7
August65.8134.5-0.1-2.2-6.8-11.6
September65.7130.5-0.1-2.9-6.4-14.3
October65.8130.50.20.0-5.3-13.9
November66.3136.40.64.6-4.2-12.9
December66.5152.90.312.1-2.9-9.0
2000January66.5142.10.1-7.1-1.8-2.8
February66.6135.80.1-4.4-0.8-5.7
March66.7134.50.2-0.90.0-2.3
April66.8129.50.0-3.80.5-7.0
May66.9133.00.22.81.4-5.4
June66.8136.4-0.22.51.9-3.2
July66.7130.10.0-4.61.4-5.3
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 12.Brazil: Minimum Wage Statistics
Nominal

(R$ per month)
Real Index

(May 2000=100) 1/
Percentage Change

in Real Terms 2/
Annual averages
199591.383.913.1
1996108.086.22.7
1997117.388.42.5
1998126.791.94.0
1999134.092.80.9
2000147.795.02.5
Quarterly averages
1995I75.075.3-6.0
II90.084.925.3
III100.089.419.3
IV100.085.816.5
1996I100.082.89.9
II108.087.12.5
III112.087.8-1.8
IV112.087.01.4
1997I112.085.63.3
II117.388.41.6
III120.090.02.5
IV120.089.42.8
1998I120.087.82.6
II126.791.33.3
III130.094.14.6
IV130.094.35.5
1999I130.092.35.1
II134.093.52.3
III136.093.6-0.5
IV136.091.5-3.0
2000I141.090.2-2.3
II151.099.96.9
Sources: IPEA; and Central Bank of Brazil.

Deflated by the National Consumer Price Index (INPC).

With respect to the corresponding period of the preceding year.

Sources: IPEA; and Central Bank of Brazil.

Deflated by the National Consumer Price Index (INPC).

With respect to the corresponding period of the preceding year.

Table 13.Brazil: Nominal, Operational, and Primary Balances of the Nonfinancial Public Sector 1/2/(In percent of GDP)
199419951996199719981999
Total borrowing requirement44.27.15.96.17.910.0
Central government 3/16.82.32.62.65.46.9
States and municipalities19.03.52.73.02.03.2
Public enterprises8.51.30.60.50.5-0.1
Monetary correction44.82.32.11.80.56.6
Operational balance (deficit -)0.5-4.8-3.8-4.3-7.4-3.4
Central government1.6-1.6-1.6-1.8-5.1-3.2
States and municipalities-1.0-2.3-1.8-2.3-1.8-0.5
Public enterprises-0.1-0.8-0.3-0.3-0.50.3
Interest payments (net) 4/3.85.13.73.37.46.7
Central government1.52.22.01.45.75.5
States and municipalities1.52.11.31.51.60.7
Public enterprises0.90.80.40.30.20.4
Primary balance (deficit -)4.30.3-0.1-1.00.03.2
Central government3.10.60.4-0.30.62.4
States and municipalities0.5-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.20.2
Public enterprises0.8-0.10.10.1-0.40.7
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Figures from 1992 to 1994 have been adjusted to eliminate the end-of-period bias.

Proceeds from privatization, not included in revenue.

Includes federal administration, central bank, decentralized agencies and social security system.

Interest payments on external debt plus the real portion of interest payments on domestic debt.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Figures from 1992 to 1994 have been adjusted to eliminate the end-of-period bias.

Proceeds from privatization, not included in revenue.

Includes federal administration, central bank, decentralized agencies and social security system.

Interest payments on external debt plus the real portion of interest payments on domestic debt.

Table 14.Brazil: Summary Operations of the Public Sector 1/(In percent of GDP)
19941995199619971998 4/1999 4/
Nonfinancial revenue33.232.929.930.830.834.0
Tax revenue24.224.321.923.223.627.6
Direct taxes3.84.24.03.94.74.9
Federal VAT (IPI)2.12.02.01.91.71.7
State VAT (ICMS)6.87.27.16.76.56.9
IOF0.80.50.40.40.40.5
Financial transactions tax (CPMF)----0.80.90.8
Trade taxes0.50.70.50.60.70.8
Earmarked social taxes4.14.14.14.03.75.1
Social security contributions5.34.95.25.15.15.1
Other tax revenue3.12.20.52.12.21.9
Minus: public enterprise taxes-2.2-1.8-1.9-2.2-2.3-0.2
Nontax revenue9.08.78.17.67.16.4
Value added federal enterprises5.34.24.54.84.33.4
Sales8.77.07.67.46.86.4
Minus: purchases-3.4-2.8-3.0-2.6-2.5-3.1
Other revenue from federal enterprises1.30.91.21.00.50.6
Other2.43.62.41.82.32.4
Nonfinancial expenditure28.932.630.031.830.830.8
Current expenditure22.225.627.126.026.128.2
Wages and salaries12.713.612.513.412.111.8
Transfers5.15.96.16.36.76.9
Pension benefits4.74.95.35.45.86.1
Subsidies, grants, BNDES0.50.90.80.90.90.8
Other current4.36.18.56.47.39.4
Capital expenditure4.64.13.94.64.23.0
Investment4.23.82.93.53.32.1
Other0.40.31.01.00.90.9
Primary deficit state and
municipal enterprises0.90.50.20.20.10.0
Float and adjustment1.22.4-1.31.00.4-0.5
Of which:
FAT adjustment-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.1-0.2-0.3
Adjustment and float1.53.0-0.91.10.5-0.2
Primary balance (deficit -) 2/4.30.3-0.1-1.00.03.2
Federal government3.00.60.4-0.30.62.4
State and municipal governments0.5-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.20.2
Public sector enterprises0.8-0.10.10.1-0.40.7
Net financial expenditure 3/3.85.13.73.37.46.7
Domestic3.14.63.23.07.15.6
Foreign0.70.50.50.30.31.0
Operational balance (deficit -)0.6-4.8-3.8-4.3-7.4-3.4
Federal government1.6-1.6-1.6-1.8-5.1-3.2
State and municipal governments-1.0-2.3-1.8-2.3-1.8-0.5
Public sector enterprises-0.1-0.8-0.3-0.3-0.50.3
PSBR44.27.15.96.17.910.0
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Comprises federal government (including the operational result of the central bank), state and municipal governments, and public sector enterprises. Figures from 1992 to 1994 have been adjusted to eliminate the end-of-period effect.

Excludes proceeds from privatization.

Comprises interest payments on external debt, plus the real component of interest payments on domestic debt.

Preliminary. Data for the municipalities only available for the below-the-line primary balance.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Comprises federal government (including the operational result of the central bank), state and municipal governments, and public sector enterprises. Figures from 1992 to 1994 have been adjusted to eliminate the end-of-period effect.

Excludes proceeds from privatization.

Comprises interest payments on external debt, plus the real component of interest payments on domestic debt.

Preliminary. Data for the municipalities only available for the below-the-line primary balance.

Table 15.Brazil: General Government 1/(In percent of GDP)
19941995199619971998 3/1999 3/
Nonfinancial revenue28.829.626.128.528.230.2
Tax revenue26.426.023.826.725.927.8
Direct taxes3.84.24.03.94.74.9
Value-added taxes8.99.29.19.38.28.6
Social security taxes5.34.95.25.15.15.1
Trade taxes0.50.70.50.60.70.8
Other tax revenue8.06.94.97.97.28.4
Nontax revenue2.43.62.41.82.32.4
Nonfinancial expenditure25.329.226.329.527.827.7
Current expenditure24.026.724.926.525.626.3
Wages and salaries11.012.212.412.211.211.2
Transfers5.36.26.36.46.97.1
Pension benefits4.74.95.35.45.86.1
Subsidies and grants0.61.21.01.01.01.0
Other current expenditures7.78.36.17.97.68.1
Capital expenditure2.92.72.32.62.61.7
Float and statistical adjustment-1.6-0.2-0.90.4-0.4-0.4
Primary balance (deficit -)3.50.4-0.2-1.10.42.6
Real net interest payments 2/2.94.33.33.07.36.3
Operational balance (deficit -)0.6-3.9-3.4-4.0-6.9-3.7
Public sector borrowing requirement35.85.85.35.77.410.1
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Comprises federal government (including the operational result of the central bank), and state and municipal governments.

Comprises interest payments on external debt, plus the real component of interest payments on domestic debt.

Preliminary. Data for the municipalities only available for the below-the-line primary balance.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Comprises federal government (including the operational result of the central bank), and state and municipal governments.

Comprises interest payments on external debt, plus the real component of interest payments on domestic debt.

Preliminary. Data for the municipalities only available for the below-the-line primary balance.

Table 16.Brazil: Central Government Operations 1/(In percent of GDP)
199419951996199719981999
Revenue 2/18.619.217.818.420.122.0
Taxes17.917.016.717.217.819.6
Direct3.84.24.03.94.74.9
Individual2.62.82.32.43.33.5
Corporate1.21.51.71.51.41.5
Indirect3.82.52.33.13.03.0
IPI2.12.02.01.91.71.7
IOF0.80.50.40.40.40.5
IPMF/CPMF1.00.00.00.80.90.8
Taxes on trade0.50.70.50.60.70.8
Earmarked social taxes4.14.14.14.03.75.1
Social security contributions5.34.95.25.15.15.1
Other taxes0.40.40.50.50.70.6
Nontax revenues0.72.21.21.22.32.4
Expenditure15.618.617.518.719.619.6
Current expenditure15.918.617.617.418.719.2
Wages and salaries5.15.25.04.95.05.1
Social security benefits4.74.95.35.45.86.1
Transfers3.94.23.73.63.94.2
States and Municipalities transfers.3.43.23.02.93.13.5
Regional funds0.20.30.20.20.20.2
Public enterprises0.00.00.00.00.00.0
BNDES, regional funds0.30.60.60.60.60.6
Subsidies and grants0.10.30.30.30.30.2
Other current expenditure2.14.03.33.33.63.5
Capital expenditure1.00.80.80.91.10.8
Direct1.00.80.80.91.10.8
Capital transfers to public enterprises0.00.00.00.00.00.0
Float and adjustment-1.3-0.7-0.90.4-0.1-0.4
Of which:
FAT adjustment-0.4-0.55-0.4-0.1-0.2-0.3
Float-0.9-0.18-0.60.60.0-0.1
Primary balance (deficit -)3.00.60.4-0.30.62.4
Net interest payments 3/1.52.22.01.45.75.5
Operational balance (deficit -)1.6-1.6-1.6-1.8-5.1-3.2
Nominal balance (deficit -)-16.8-2.3-2.6-2.6-5.4-6.9
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; ministry of finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes the central administration, social security system, and central bank.

Excludes proceeds from privatization.

Comprises interest payments on external debt, plus the real component of interest payments on the domestic debt.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; ministry of finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes the central administration, social security system, and central bank.

Excludes proceeds from privatization.

Comprises interest payments on external debt, plus the real component of interest payments on the domestic debt.

Table 17.Brazil: State and Municipal Governments(In percent of GDP)
199419951996199719981999
Revenue 1/13.613.613.012.910.911.2
Tax revenue8.59.09.39.28.18.3
VAT and nonsales tax6.87.27.57.46.56.9
Other1.71.81.81.81.61.3
Nontax revenue1.71.40.50.50.00.0
Transfers3.43.23.33.32.82.9
Expenditure 1/13.113.813.613.611.111.0
Current expenditure11.511.412.111.99.810.1
Wages and salaries5.97.07.47.36.26.0
Other current expenditure5.604.364.624.53.44.0
Capital expenditure1.91.91.551.81.50.9
Float and adjustment 2/-0.30.60.00.0-0.2-0.1
Primary Balance (deficit -)0.5-0.2-0.56-0.7-0.20.2
Net real interest payments 3/1.42.11.31.51.60.7
Operational balance (deficit -)-1.0-2.3-1.9-2.3-1.8-0.5
Nominal balance (deficit -)-19.0-3.5-2.7-3.0-2.0-3.2
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

The 1998 and 1999 figures reflect exclusively data for the States as no above-the-line data is yet available for t municipalities.

For 1998 and 1999 it includes the below-the-line primary surplus (-) /deficit (+) of the municipalities.

Comprises interest payments on external debt, plus the real component of interest payments on the domestic debt.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

The 1998 and 1999 figures reflect exclusively data for the States as no above-the-line data is yet available for t municipalities.

For 1998 and 1999 it includes the below-the-line primary surplus (-) /deficit (+) of the municipalities.

Comprises interest payments on external debt, plus the real component of interest payments on the domestic debt.

Table 18.Brazil: Nonfinancial Public Sector Enterprises(In percent of GDP)
19941995199619971998Est.

1999
I. Federal Enterprises
Revenue9.97.99.08.77.87.5
Sales of goods and services8.77.07.87.56.96.7
Transfer receipts0.00.00.00.10.00.0
Current0.00.00.00.00.00.0
Capital0.00.00.00.00.00.0
Other1.30.91.21.10.80.8
Expenditure8.27.58.38.48.06.8
Current expenditure7.26.06.55.95.65.6
Wages and salaries1.71.41.41.10.90.7
Materials and supplies2.01.51.91.41.21.7
Services0.90.80.80.70.70.6
Taxes2.21.82.02.22.31.7
Other0.50.50.40.40.50.9
Capital expenditure1.71.52.01.91.71.3
Investment1.61.31.61.61.30.8
Other0.10.20.40.40.40.5
Float-0.80.0-0.20.60.70.0
Primary (deficit -)1.80.40.70.3-0.20.7
II. Local Enterprises
Primary (deficit-) 1/-0.9-0.5-0.6-0.2-0.10.0
III. Total
Primary (deficit -)0.8-0.10.10.1-0.40.7
Net interest payments 2/0.90.80.40.30.20.4
Operational (deficit -)-0.1-0.8-0.3-0.3-0.50.3
Nominal balance (deficit -)-8.4-1.3-0.6-0.5-0.50.1
Sources: Central Bank ; Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Planning and Budget; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes statistical discrepancy for data prior to 1997.

Comprises interest payments on external debt plus the real component of interest payments on domestic debt.

Sources: Central Bank ; Ministry of Finance; Ministry of Planning and Budget; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes statistical discrepancy for data prior to 1997.

Comprises interest payments on external debt plus the real component of interest payments on domestic debt.

Table 19.Brazil: Federal Treasury Cash Operations
199419951996199719981999
(In millions of reais)
Cash revenue48,180.086,294.097,132.0116,033.4139,051.7158,778.6
Cash expenditures 1/46,810.090,256.0106,257.0121,675.1148333.4163,706.6
Earmarked12,534.024,586.027,187.032,190.838,462.740,062.6
Transfers of earmarked receipts3,481.06,266.06,357.08,784.411,452.010,533.7
State and local government
participation of funds9,053.018,320.020,830.023,406.427,010.729,528.9
Non-earmarked32,307.062,227.076,707.086,963.4107,477.8121,229.4
Wages17,935.035,497.040,505.042,849.047,298.050,167.5
Interest 2/5,466.011,739.015,992.017,973.427,713.235,937.5
Other8,906.014,991.020,216.026,141.032,466.635,124.4
Net lending1,969.03,443.02,288.02,520.92,392.92,414.6
Cash surplus or deficit (-)1,370.0-3,962.0-9,125.0-5,641.7-9,281.7-4,928.0
(As a percent of revenue)
Cash expenditures 1/97.2104.6109.4104.9106.7103.1
Earmarked26.028.528.027.727.725.2
Transfers of earmarked receipts7.27.36.57.68.26.6
State and local government
participation funds18.821.221.420.219.418.6
Non-earmarked67.172.179.074.977.376.4
Wages37.241.141.736.934.031.6
Interest 2/11.313.616.515.519.922.6
Other18.517.420.822.523.322.1
Net lending4.14.02.42.21.71.5
(As percent of GDP)
Cash revenue13.813.412.513.315.216.5
Cash expenditures 1/13.414.013.614.016.217.0
Earmarked3.63.83.53.74.24.2
Transfers of earmarked receipts1.01.00.81.01.31.1
State and local government
participation of funds2.62.82.72.73.03.1
Non-earmarked9.39.69.810.011.812.6
Wages5.15.55.24.95.25.2
Interest 2/1.61.82.12.13.03.7
Other2.62.32.63.03.63.7
Net lending0.60.50.30.30.30.3
Cash surplus or deficit (-)0.4-0.6-1.2-0.6-1.0-0.5
Memorandum item:
GDP (R$ million)349,205646,192778,887870,743913,735960,858
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Excluding amortization.

Includes gross interest payments on federal government bonded debt and other domestic and external debt.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Excluding amortization.

Includes gross interest payments on federal government bonded debt and other domestic and external debt.

Table 20.Brazil: Net Domestic Debt of the Public Sector 1/(In percent of GDP, end-of-period stocks)
199419951996199719981999May

2000
Total20.724.929.430.236.037.037.6
By instrument
Securities16.221.427.832.737.838.740.9
Bank debt3.44.84.90.61.40.4-3.3
Other (net)1.1-1.3-3.3-3.1-3.2-2.10.0
By debtors
Federal government 2/6.49.814.316.821.121.121.8
Securities 3/11.515.621.428.235.437.640.7
Other-5.1-5.8-7.1-11.4-14.3-16.5-19.0
States and municipalities9.410.311.212.513.714.614.7
Securities4.75.86.44.52.41.10.2
Other4.74.54.88.011.313.514.5
Public enterprises5.04.93.90.91.31.21.2
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Gross domestic debt minus domestic financial assets.

Defined to include the federal government and the central bank.

Includes only the bonded federal debt outside the central bank from 1991 until 1996.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Gross domestic debt minus domestic financial assets.

Defined to include the federal government and the central bank.

Includes only the bonded federal debt outside the central bank from 1991 until 1996.

Table 21.Brazil: Federal Government Bonded Debt Outstanding (End-of-Period) 1/
DecemberJune
199519961997199819992000
(In millions of reais, end-of-period stocks)
Total by issuer133,942197,880290,970448,529527,526596,464
Issued by the treasury84,596114,775225,732343,820464,507527,534
Held by the central bank25,45621,66935,461124,670112,62591,943
Held by the public59,14093,106190,271219,151351,881435,590
issued by the central bank49,34683,10565,238104,70963,02068,931
Total held by the public108,473176,211255,509323,860414,901504,521
Nonindexed instruments46,319107,491104,52711,38386,24269,935
Indexed instruments62,15468,720150,982312,477328,659434,586
Indexed to the overnight interest rate40,97932,78988,874223,634205,345277,111
Indexed to the foreign exchange rate5,72816,53239,23968,006100,550103,690
Indexed to other indicators15,44819,39922,86820,83622,76453,785
(In percent of total federal government bonded debt)
Issued by the treasury63.258.077.676.788.188.4
Issued by the central bank36.842.022.423.311.911.6
Held by the central bank19.011.012.227.821.315.4
Held by the public81.089.087.872.278.784.6
(In percent of total federal government bonded debt held by the public)
Nonindexed instruments42.761.040.93.520.813.9
Indexed instruments57.339.059.196.579.286.1
Indexed to the overnight interest rate37.818.634.869.149.554.9
Indexed to the foreign exchange rate5.39.415.421.024.220.6
Indexed to other indicators14.211.09.06.45.510.7
(In percent of GDP)
Total20.725.433.449.154.958.7
Total held by the public16.822.629.335.443.249.6
Memorandum item:
GDP over four quarters646,192778,887870,743913,735960,8581,016,806
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Federal government is defined here as the treasury plus the central bank.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Federal government is defined here as the treasury plus the central bank.

Table 22.Brazil: Outstanding Domestic Bonded Debt of the State and Municipal Governments
DecemberJune
199519961997199819992000
(In millions of reais, end-of-period stocks)
Total outstanding39,51251,72041,03623,02012,5692,086
State governments 1/34,39645,14932,88012,5292,0591,640
Minas Gerais6,8828,77310,912000
Rio de Janeiro4,6565,9357,3839,47400
Rio Grande do Sul5,1336,5438,1430045
São Paulo14,60318,7230000
Others3,1225,1756,4423,0552,0591,594
Municipal governments5,1166,5718,15610,49110,511446
Rio de Janeiro1,1651,3381,6582,12400
São Paulo 2/3,9515,0216,2428,04110,1020
Others0212256326409446
(As a percent of total state and municipal government bonded debt)
State governments 1/87.187.380.154.416.478.6
Minas Gerais17.417.026.60.00.00.0
Rio de Janeiro11.811.518.041.20.00.0
Rio Grande do Sul13.012.719.80.00.02.2
São Paulo37.036.20.00.00.00.0
Others7.910.015.713.316.476.4
Municipal governments12.912.719.945.683.621.4
Rio de Janeiro2.92.64.09.20.00.0
São Paulo 2/10.09.715.234.980.40.0
Others0.00.40.61.43.321.4
(Percent of GDP)
Total outstanding6.16.64.72.51.30.2
State governments 1/5.35.83.81.40.20.2
Minas Gerais1.11.11.30.00.00.0
Rio de Janeiro0.70.80.81.00.00.0
Rio Grande do Sul0.80.80.90.00.00.0
São Paulo2.32.40.00.00.00.0
Others0.50.70.70.30.20.2
Municipal governments0.80.80.91.11.10.0
Rio de Janeiro0.20.20.20.20.00.0
São Paulo 2/0.60.60.70.91.10.0
Others0.00.00.00.00.00.0
Memorandum item:
GDP over four quarters646,192778,887870,743913,735960,8581,016,806
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Reductions of state debt in 1997-99 reflect the effects of the state debt accords with the federal government.

Reflects debt of the municipalities of Campinas, Guarulhos, and Osasco.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Reductions of state debt in 1997-99 reflect the effects of the state debt accords with the federal government.

Reflects debt of the municipalities of Campinas, Guarulhos, and Osasco.

Table 23.Brazil: Monetary Aggregates(In millions of reais, end-of-period)
Base

Money 1/
M1 2/Savings

and Time

Deposits 3/
M2 4/FIF

FRF-CP

DER 5/
Public Sector

Securities 6/
M4 7/
1995Jan.16,73718,217110,282128,49915,78034,413178,692
Feb.15,82119,886112,856132,74216,48035,545184,767
Mar.15,58217,082116,855133,93716,55634,394184,887
Apr.13,82817,142118,471135,61316,43735,302187,352
May13,81216,078120,106136,18416,63536,709189,528
Jun.13,94317,622122,594140,21616,90039,407196,523
Jul.15,03417,879126,824144,70317,66046,238208,601
Aug.15,61417,776130,757148,53318,45652,657219,646
Sep.13,45419,069134,176153,24515,04757,720226,012
Oct.15,35219,755136,840156,59511,57361,885230,053
Nov.15,55921,912137,476159,38813,54965,187238,124
Dec.21,68228,493139,862168,35513,20065,463247,018
1996Jan.22,43423,482145,783169,26514,95870,271254,494
Feb.17,00723,095146,241169,33615,78575,281260,402
Mar.16,18622,985146,703169,68816,07179,216264,975
Apr.15,00223,276145,735169,01116,54383,176268,730
May16,27222,762144,775167,53716,92190,371274,829
Jun.16,80723,513145,497169,01017,53493,075279,619
Jul.18,74823,107144,137167,24418,08299,274284,600
Aug.15,68723,477143,741167,21818,889101,996288,103
Sep.20,63825,143145,978171,12119,385104,308294,814
Oct.15,56523,171149,676172,84719,743107,359299,949
Nov.15,67624,383151,749176,13221,505111,312308,949
Dec.19,79629,807152,305182,11222,832114,048318,992
1997Jan.23,86030,115148,027178,14214,271126,076318,489
Feb.20,28533,027148,239181,26610,115131,818323,200
Mar.22,32434,030150,236184,2668,318135,443328,027
Apr.27,29133,235150,280183,5157,191140,830331,535
May21,74033,350152,968186,3186,567142,355335,240
Jun.24,68834,331158,107192,4386,015144,195342,649
Jul.24,21632,845159,308192,1535,595151,522349,270
Aug.21,86834,684162,782197,4665,412151,399354,277
Sep.24,70035,842168,165204,0075,464154,875364,346
Oct.26,14736,333174,393210,7266,567154,141371,433
Nov.22,97236,596180,767217,3636,772148,754372,888
Dec.31,82843,077183,721226,7986,262148,808381,868
1998Jan.30,56439,158189,703228,8617,083150,805386,749
Feb.29,09138,864191,567230,4317,094157,236394,760
Mar.29,98538,288193,623231,9117,459167,472406,842
Apr.30,65538,594193,555232,1497,834171,356411,339
May31,09938,826195,239234,0658,157175,674417,896
Jun.37,22140,775196,995237,7707,840178,704424,314
Jul.32,98640,483197,204237,6877,997185,681431,365
Aug.35,41341,192196,801237,9938,109185,826431,927
Sep.32,00240,971194,287235,2587,735172,980415,973
Oct.32,82640,263196,410236,6737,389177,083421,145
Nov.39,73843,020197,501240,5217,768187,211435,501
Dec.39,18446,782196,494243,2767,441193,875444,592
1999Jan.39,63546,517197,212243,7297,462204,157455,347
Feb.37,85644,392204,134248,5267,326208,066463,918
Mar.37,23242,264208,209250,4736,915213,163470,550
Apr.36,35240,854205,918246,7726,537218,196471,504
May40,43540,907206,786247,6936,539224,000478,232
Jun.33,17845,940207,454253,3945,943235,171494,508
Jul.41,16248,012205,606253,6186,117240,904500,639
Aug.33,87047,509205,534253,043115,670147,862516,575
Sep.35,97146,989204,467251,456124,533145,136521,125
Oct.35,85048,581204,549253,130130,801146,792530,723
Nov.37,33751,580205,107256,687137,803147,679542,169
Dec.48,43062,744205,454268,198143,146142,462553,806
2000Jan.41,89356,633206,783263,416151,245149,806564,467
Feb.41,92054,038200,413254,451156,654157,984569,089
Mar.39,09453,255201,193254,448161,499157,803573,750
Apr.37,72153,669199,091252,760168,104158,483579,347
May35,87652,976198,010250,986172,080163,682586,748
Jun.32,31654,285196,651250,936181,912164,546597,394
Jul.36,45256,564197,729254,293185,333163,772603,398
Aug.39,12256,414199,148255,562192,000160,936608,498
Sep.37,52159,146196,966256,112196,831159,989612,932
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Currency issues plus bank reserves on demand deposits.

Currency in circulation plus sight deposits.

Excludes deposits in the own portfolios of financial institutions, FIFs and FRF-CPs.

Equals M1 plus savings and time deposits.

Short-term Financial Investment Funds (FIF), Short-Term Fixed-Income Funds (FRF-CP), and Special Remunerated Deposits (DER). Excludes demand deposits held in FIFs.

Includes securities of the federal, state, and municipal governments. Excludes securities in the portfolios of financial institutions, FIFs and FRF-CPs.

Equals M2 plus FIFs, FRP-CPs, DERs, and public sector securities.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Currency issues plus bank reserves on demand deposits.

Currency in circulation plus sight deposits.

Excludes deposits in the own portfolios of financial institutions, FIFs and FRF-CPs.

Equals M1 plus savings and time deposits.

Short-term Financial Investment Funds (FIF), Short-Term Fixed-Income Funds (FRF-CP), and Special Remunerated Deposits (DER). Excludes demand deposits held in FIFs.

Includes securities of the federal, state, and municipal governments. Excludes securities in the portfolios of financial institutions, FIFs and FRF-CPs.

Equals M2 plus FIFs, FRP-CPs, DERs, and public sector securities.

Table 24.Brazil: Summary Accounts of the Financial System 1/(In millions of reais, end-of-period)
19951996199719981999
I. Central Bank
Net foreign assets53,17668,02459,73145,24753,194
Net international reserves49,08062,09353,21937,46144,229
Net other foreign assets4,0965,9316,5127,7858,965
Net domestic assets52,42776,86380,988133,98394,337
Net claims on public sector8,9822,5709886,51345,684
Net central administration8,9822,5709886,51345,684
Net state and local governments00000
Net social security00000
Net official enterprises00000
Credit to deposit money banks34,57667,64268,01240,36831,151
Credit to rest of banking system5390200
Credit to nonbanking institutions0671,9262,036
Credit under repurchase agreements3,22711,05102,604
Blocked financial assets-190-125-12-10-13
Credit to private sector55500
Nonmonetary international organizations6398019621,125-427
Official capital and surplus-890-3,654-3,658-3,1995,376
Net unclassified assets6,0739,61413,6217,2607,926
Counterpart unrequited foreign exchange-2,533-3,144-3,807-3,717-5,065
Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities4,4422,6312,4487,3018,806
Mutual funds deposits5,15411,6323,7264,5450
Liabilities to deposit money banks22,37022,27543,54933,45337,813
Liabilities to rest of banking system3823791,2112248
Liabilities to nonbanking institutions231435
Central bank securities outstanding52,45783,10665,724104,70962,468
Liabilities under repurchase agreements5,7416,3682,1044,2907,343
Liabilities to private sector12,52215,32118,14621,19025,983
Currency in circulation12,51515,31418,13921,18225,974
Other liabilities77789
II. Deposit Money Banks
Net foreign assets-10,050-16,311-16,729-10,690-19,118
Assets18,15921,13021,81021,28429,716
Liabilities28,20937,44138,53931,97448,834
Monetary reserves and currency holdings22,12622,03542,49432,71638,024
Other claims on monetary authorities6,57818,93211,60337,54528,845
Net domestic assets241,287285,321321,075331,938360,077
Net claims on public sector25,04684,356115,19192,795129,783
Net central administration7,76422,57483,85265,241108,873
Net state and local governments17,96753,23936,41916,8527,222
Net social security-6,316-9,424-9,730-1,095-770
Net official enterprises5,63117,9674,65011,79714,458
Credit to rest of banking system7701,0783,3533,2842,903
Blocked financial assets00000
Credit to private sector199,138204,681225,197259,983272,575
Official capital and surplus-21,478-33,069-50,966-50,986-58,101
Net unclassified assets37,81128,27528,30026,86212,917
Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities13,09515,97622,54729,12224,601
Liabilities to monetary authorities23,40739,02530,27211,623521
Liabilities to rest of banking system9,39622,01721,97326,77428,473
Liabilities to private sector213,932232,899283,417323,831353,965
Demand deposits11,25510,87124,13225,14832,292
Quasi-monetary liabilities159,901173,714203,992225,619238,503
Savings deposits58,56268,85690,804102,915110,063
Time deposits78,43878,84884,23689,37492,877
Other deposits22,90126,01028,95233,33035,563
Other liabilities6,5507,25610,2838,9369,627
Private capital and surplus36,22641,05845,01064,12873,543
III. Monetary System
Net foreign assets43,12651,71343,00234,55734,076
Assets71,81389,29781,70874,25498,852
Liabilities28,68737,58438,70639,69864,776
Net domestic assets218,443252,377314,511382,107413,138
Net claims on public sector34,02886,926115,289179,308175,467
Net central administration16,74625,14483,950151,754154,557
Net state and local governments17,96753,23936,41916,8527,222
Net social security-6,316-9,424-9,730-1,095-770
Net official enterprises5,63117,9674,65011,79714,458
Credit to rest of banking system7751,0814,2553,2842,903
Credit to nonbanking institutions0671,9262,036
Blocked financial assets-190-125-12-10-13
Credit to private sector199,143204,686225,202259,983272,575
Nonmonetary international organizations6398019621,125-427
Official capital and surplus-22,368-36,723-54,624-54,185-52,725
Net unclassified assets-11,087-51,584-24,856-74,877-46,364
Net interbank float17,50347,30948,28865,55359,686
Counterpart unrequited foreign exchange-2,533-3,144-3,807-3,717-5,065
Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities17,53718,60724,99536,42333,407
Mutual funds deposits5,15411,6323,7264,5450
Liabilities to rest of banking system9,77822,39623,18426,79628,521
Liabilities to nonbanking institutions11391238162273
Liabilities to private sector226,454248,220301,563345,021379,948
Monetary liabilities23,77026,18542,27146,33058,266
Currency in circulation12,51515,31418,13921,18225,974
Demand deposits11,25510,87124,13225,14832,292
Quasi-monetary liabilities159,901173,714203,992225,619238,503
Savings deposits58,56268,85690,804102,915110,063
Time deposits78,43878,84884,23689,37492,877
Other deposits22,90126,01028,95233,33035,563
Other liabilities6,5577,26310,2908,9449,636
Private capital and surplus36,22641,05845,01064,12873,543
IV. Rest of Banking System
Net foreign assets3390000
Assets3820000
Liabilities430000
Monetary reserves and currency holdings6110000
Other claims on monetary authorities45918415989117
Net domestic assets13,23217,29723,33325,08320,998
Net claims on public sector-6,372-8,256-7,432-5,722-16,816
Net central administration-10,675-12,963-12,643-11,445-21,797
Net state and local governments9311,1602,4002,5243,112
Net social security00000
Net official enterprises3,3723,5472,8113,1991,869
Credit to deposit money banks15,62419,43822,74926,98337,447
Blocked financial assets00000
Credit to private sector27,33231,80241,44051,74258,542
Official capital and surplus-16,461-12,624-14,397-14,984-16,790
Net unclassified assets-6,891-13,063-19,027-32,936-41,385
Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities2,1412,6364,35610,96410,417
Liabilities to monetary authorities1,0351,0652,020354385
Liabilities to deposit money banks1,1621,1523,8041,2791,197
Liabilities to private sector10,30312,62813,31212,5759,116
Demand deposits00000
Quasi-monetary liabilities5,2986,3397,2817,5054,528
Savings deposits3,3053,8075,2085,5421,384
Time deposits1,6922,2281,8241,4342,518
Other deposits301304249529626
Other liabilities143563497357442
Private capital and surplus4,8625,7265,5344,7134,146
V. Banking System
Net foreign assets43,46551,71343,00234,55734,076
Assets72,19589,29781,70874,25498,852
Liabilities28,73037,58438,70639,69864,776
Net domestic assets220,770245,245308,995378,850404,150
Net claims on public sector27,65678,670107,857173,586158,651
Net central administration6,07112,18171,307140,309132,760
Net state and local governments18,89854,39938,81919,37610,334
Net social security-6,316-9,424-9,730-1,095-770
Net official enterprises9,00321,5147,46114,99616,327
Credit to nonbanking institutions0671,9262,036
Blocked financial assets-190-125-12-10-13
Credit to private sector226,475236,488266,642311,725331,117
Nonmonetary international organizations6398019621,125-427
Official capital and surplus-38,829-49,347-69,021-69,169-69,515
Net unclassified assets-17,978-64,647-43,883-107,813-87,749
Net interbank float22,99743,39946,44367,48070,050
Counterpart unrequited foreign exchange-2,533-3,144-3,807-3,717-5,065
Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities19,67821,24329,35147,38743,824
Mutual funds deposits5,15411,6323,7264,5450
Liabilities to nonbanking institutions11391238162273
Liabilities to private sector236,757260,848314,875357,596389,064
Monetary liabilities23,77026,18542,27146,33058,266
Currency in circulation12,51515,31418,13921,18225,974
Demand deposits11,25510,87124,13225,14832,292
Quasi-monetary liabilities165,199180,053211,273233,124243,031
Savings deposits61,86772,66396,012108,457111,447
Time deposits80,13081,07686,06090,80895,395
Other deposits23,20226,31429,20133,85936,189
Other liabilities6,7007,82610,7879,30110,078
Private capital and surplus41,08846,78450,54468,84177,689
VI. Nonbank Financial Institutions
Net foreign assets8771-131-138-526
Assets87934544104
Liabilities022176182630
Monetary reserves and currency holdings6311434
Other claims on monetary authorities154350364667333
Net domestic assets16,34922,52026,89231,06931,946
Net claims on public sector3801,5111,3441,6652,298
Net central administration421,0891,2271,1002,149
Net state and local governments330408103552142
Net social security00000
Net official enterprises81414137
Credit to deposit money banks1,7093,0622,8104,0643,402
Credit to rest of banking system51235209
Blocked financial assets00000
Credit to private sector2,4583,5993,60118,82516,075
Official capital and surplus00000
Net unclassified assets11,79714,33619,1026,49510,162
Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities2,2932,9723,5524,0414,401
Liabilities to monetary authorities00000
Liabilities to deposit money banks00000
Liabilities to rest of banking system1,6193,6704,0935,1764,324
Liabilities to private sector12,68416,33019,49422,38423,032
Demand deposits00000
Quasi-monetary liabilities00000
Savings deposits00000
Time deposits00000
Other deposits00000
Other liabilities3,9015,4828,3079,2437,000
Private capital and surplus8,78310,84811,18713,14116,032
VII. Financial System
Net foreign assets43,55251,78442,87134,41933,550
Assets72,28289,39081,75374,29898,956
Liabilities28,73037,60638,88239,88065,406
Net domestic assets235,547264,385331,934405,251431,836
Net claims on public sector28,03680,181109,201175,251160,949
Net central administration6,11313,27072,534141,409134,909
Net state and local governments19,22854,80738,92219,92810,476
Net social security-6,316-9,424-9,730-1,095-770
Net official enterprises9,01121,5287,47515,00916,334
Blocked financial assets-190-125-12-10-13
Credit to private sector228,933240,087270,243330,550347,192
Nonmonetary international organizations6398019621,125-427
Official capital and surplus-38,829-49,347-69,021-69,169-69,515
Net unclassified assets-6,181-50,311-24,781-101,318-77,587
Net interbank float23,13943,09945,34268,82271,237
Counterpart unrequited foreign exchange-2,533-3,144-3,807-3,717-5,065
Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities21,97124,21532,90351,42848,225
Mutual funds deposits5,15411,6323,7264,5450
Liabilities to private sector249,441277,178334,369379,980412,096
Monetary liabilities23,77026,18542,27146,33058,266
Currency in circulation12,51515,31418,13921,18225,974
Demand deposits11,25510,87124,13225,14832,292
Quasi-monetary liabilities165,199180,053211,273233,124243,031
Savings deposits61,86772,66396,012108,457111,447
Time deposits80,13081,07686,06090,80895,395
Other deposits23,20226,31429,20133,85936,189
Other liabilities10,60113,30819,09418,54417,078
Private capital and surplus49,87157,63261,73181,98293,721
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Beginning with end-1994, the data exclude information on the state banks of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro and some small financial institutions.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Beginning with end-1994, the data exclude information on the state banks of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro and some small financial institutions.

Table 25.Brazil: Financial System Loans
19951996199719981999September

2000
(In millions of reais, end of period)
Provisions22,39519,84326,54332,09732,82823,909
Total loans outstanding244,543260,709265,609281,437286,794301,874
Lent to public sector 1/54,04563,61736,78134,76327,03213,118
Lent to private sector190,498197,092228,828246,674259,762288,756
Loans less than 60 days overdue 2/221,982243,734247,041254,783262,502263,060
Lent to public sector 1/50,91861,40837,30233,08025,72410,314
Lent to private sector171,064182,326209,739221,703236,778252,746
Industry45,48950,22056,62759,87271,28272,493
Housing51,48551,62555,82060,88457,36450,296
Rural sector21,35918,22022,00920,64521,93020,387
Commerce20,14521,24221,74118,08621,02624,858
Consumer loans12,07719,55829,74930,19434,70747,836
Other services20,50921,46123,79332,02230,46936,876
(In percent of total loans outstanding)
Loans less than 60 days overdue 2/90.893.593.090.591.587.1
Lent to public sector 1/20.823.614.011.89.03.4
Lent to private sector70.069.979.078.882.683.7
Industry18.619.321.321.324.924.0
Housing21.119.821.021.620.016.7
Rural sector8.77.08.37.37.66.8
Commerce8.28.18.26.47.38.2
Consumer loans4.97.511.210.712.115.8
Other services8.48.29.011.410.612.2
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Shifts in the sectoral composition, reflect, among others, the effects of the state debt accords, in the context of which outstanding state liabilities were federalized, and paid off with federal debt titles.

Data for 1994 to 1999 are normal credits under the old credit classification system; data for September 2000 are credit with level C or above according to the new credit risk assessment framework. Under the old system, delay in payments was the only criterion used in credit classification, and loans were considered “normal” if they were less than 60 days overdue. Under the new system, loans are classified into nine different levels based on an ex-ante evaluation of credit risk in addition to taking into account the existence of loans overdue. Loans are classified as level C or above if they are less than 60 days overdue, before taking into account other factors such as the existence of collateral or the overall creditworthiness of the borrower.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Shifts in the sectoral composition, reflect, among others, the effects of the state debt accords, in the context of which outstanding state liabilities were federalized, and paid off with federal debt titles.

Data for 1994 to 1999 are normal credits under the old credit classification system; data for September 2000 are credit with level C or above according to the new credit risk assessment framework. Under the old system, delay in payments was the only criterion used in credit classification, and loans were considered “normal” if they were less than 60 days overdue. Under the new system, loans are classified into nine different levels based on an ex-ante evaluation of credit risk in addition to taking into account the existence of loans overdue. Loans are classified as level C or above if they are less than 60 days overdue, before taking into account other factors such as the existence of collateral or the overall creditworthiness of the borrower.

Table 26.Brazil: Provisioning Under the New Credit Rating System 1/
Loan Provisioning (Percent of Credit Volume)
Credit Volume (R$ million)Actual Provisions (R$ million)Actual RateMinimum

Statutory

Rate
Loan Risk Categories 2/19951996199719981999September

2000
19951996199719981999September

2000
19951996199719981999September

2000
Financial system244,543260,709265,609281,437286,794301,87422,39519,84326,54332,09732,82823,9099.27.610.011.411.47.9
AA80,5406090.80.0
A119,2477720.60.5
B (15-30 days overdue)43,3865001.21.0
C (31-60 days overdue)19,8879304.73.0
D (61-90 days overdue)9,1981,21313.210.0
E (91-120 days overdue)4,6431,29828.030.0
F (121-150 days overdue)3,0811,49048.450.0
G (151-180 days overdue)2,1481,20556.170.0
H (180+ days overdue)19,74415,89280.5100.0
Private sector institutions 3/98,316110,802108,279125,366155,8209,7336.2
AA58,2114430.80.0
A55,6086161.10.5
B (15-30 days overdue)16,9312071.21.0
C (31-60 days overdue)12,1087135.93.0
D (61-90 days overdue)3,62152414.510.0
E (91-120 days overdue)1,75159433.930.0
F (121-150 days overdue)1,35382160.750.0
G (151-180 days overdue)1,18986272.570.0
H (180+days overdue)5,0484,95398.1100.0
Public sector institutions 3/145,418136,239146,504137,136146,05414,1769.7
AA22,3291660.70.0
A63,6391560.20.5
B (15-30 days overdue)26,4552931.11.0
C (31-60 days overdue)7,7792172.83.0
D (61-90 days overdue)5,57768912.410.0
E (91-120 days overdue)2,89270424.330.0
F (121-150 days overdue)1,72866938.750.0
G (151-180 days overdue)95934335.870.0
H (180+ days overdue)14,69610,93974.4100.0
Memorandum items: 4/:
Category H loans (percent of all loans)6.5
Private sector3.2
Public sector10.1
Financial system provisions relative
to category H loans (percent) 5/152.0175.9160.9152.6121.1
Private sector192.8
Public sector96.5
Source: Central Bank.

Based on information from the monthly press release on Monetary Policy.

See BCB Resolution 2682 of December 21, 1999 for details.

Data for 1996 to 1999 reflect only normal credits (loans less than 60 days overdue) under the previous loan classification system.

Reported for comparison purposes; this approximates the reporting under the previous loan classification system that was replaced by the new system in March 2000.

Data for 1996 to 1999 are financial system provisions relative to credits in liquidation (loans more than 180 days overdue) under the previous loan classification system.

Source: Central Bank.

Based on information from the monthly press release on Monetary Policy.

See BCB Resolution 2682 of December 21, 1999 for details.

Data for 1996 to 1999 reflect only normal credits (loans less than 60 days overdue) under the previous loan classification system.

Reported for comparison purposes; this approximates the reporting under the previous loan classification system that was replaced by the new system in March 2000.

Data for 1996 to 1999 are financial system provisions relative to credits in liquidation (loans more than 180 days overdue) under the previous loan classification system.

Table 27.Brazil: Monthly Rates of Return on Selected Financial Instruments(In percent)
Nominal interest ratesReal rates 1/
TimeSavingsTimeSavings
OvernightdepositsdepositsOvernightdepositsdeposits
1990average25.425.926.6-2.3-1.9-1.4
1991average17.018.415.60.92.1-0.3
1992average26.326.224.12.32.20.5
1993average33.433.331.81.00.9-0.2
1994average25.226.024.01.82.40.8
1995average3.63.52.81.91.81.1
Jan3.43.62.61.61.90.9
Feb3.33.12.42.22.11.3
Mar4.34.62.82.73.01.2
Apr4.34.34.01.81.81.5
May4.24.13.81.51.41.1
Jun4.04.13.41.71.81.1
Jul4.03.93.51.61.51.1
Aug3.83.53.12.82.52.1
Sep3.33.12.42.32.11.4
Oct3.12.92.21.71.40.7
Nov2.92.91.91.41.40.5
Dec2.82.51.81.21.00.3
1996average2.02.01.31.31.20.5
Jan2.62.61.81.21.20.4
Feb2.42.31.51.31.30.4
Mar2.22.11.31.91.81.0
Apr2.12.01.20.80.7-0.1
May2.02.01.10.80.8-0.1
Jun2.01.91.10.80.7-0.1
Jul1.91.81.10.80.70.0
Aug2.01.91.11.51.50.7
Sep1.91.81.21.81.61.0
Oct1.91.81.21.61.50.9
Nov1.81.81.31.51.51.0
Dec1.81.61.41.31.20.9
1997average1.91.81.31.31.20.7
Jan1.71.71.20.50.60.1
Feb1.71.91.21.21.30.7
Mar1.61.61.11.11.10.6
Apr1.71.61.10.80.70.2
May1.61.61.11.21.20.7
Jun1.61.61.21.11.00.6
Jul1.61.61.21.41.40.9
Aug1.61.61.11.61.61.2
Sep1.61.61.21.51.51.1
Oct1.71.71.21.41.40.9
Nov3.02.92.02.92.71.9
Dec3.02.61.82.52.11.4
1998average2.12.01.12.01.91.0
Jan2.72.71.71.91.90.9
Feb2.12.00.91.71.60.5
Mar2.22.11.41.91.81.1
Apr1.71.61.01.51.40.7
May1.61.61.01.11.10.5
Jun1.61.61.01.61.61.0
Jul1.71.71.11.81.81.2
Aug1.51.50.92.02.11.4
Sep2.52.31.02.72.51.2
Oct2.92.71.42.92.71.4
Nov2.62.21.12.82.31.2
Dec2.42.31.22.12.00.9
1999average1.91.91.01.21.20.2
Jan2.22.41.01.51.70.3
Feb2.42.61.31.31.50.3
Mar3.33.21.72.22.10.6
Apr2.42.11.11.81.50.5
May2.01.81.11.71.50.8
Jun1.71.60.81.51.40.6
Jul1.71.60.80.60.6-0.3
Aug1.61.60.81.01.00.2
Sep1.51.50.81.21.20.5
Oct1.41.40.70.20.2-0.5
Nov1.41.40.70.40.4-0.2
Dec1.61.60.81.01.00.2
2000average1.41.40.70.90.90.2
Jan1.51.40.70.80.80.1
Feb1.51.40.71.31.30.6
Mar1.41.40.71.21.20.5
Apr1.31.30.60.90.80.2
May1.51.50.81.51.50.7
Jun1.41.40.71.21.10.5
Jul1.31.30.7-0.3-0.3-0.9
Aug1.41.40.70.10.0-0.6
Sep1.21.20.61.01.00.4
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Real interest rates are nominal rales deflated by the Consumer Price Index (EPCA).

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil; and Fund staff estimates.

Real interest rates are nominal rales deflated by the Consumer Price Index (EPCA).

Table 28.Brazil: Loans Outstanding of the Banking System
Total Loans Outstanding 1/Freely Allocated Loans 2/Total Loans Outstanding 1/Freely Allocated Loans 2/
TotalTo Legal EntitiesTo private personsOther 3/TotalTo Legal EntitiesTo Private Entities PersonsOther 3/
(in R$ million)(12-month rate of change, in percent)
1995Dec244,543
1996Dec260,70977,47559,40418,071183,2346.6
1997Dec265,60985,53163,27022,261180,0781.910.46.523.2-1.7
1998Jan265,25284,62862,19222,436180,6247.56.95.112.17.8
Feb269,88784,83862,44522,393185,0498.07.37.76.08.3
Mar269,62484,64862,49522,153184,9766.71.91.92.09.0
Apr271,55185,09563,04822,047186,4566.10.92.9-4.58.7
May273,72784,35063,04821,302189,3775.1-2.20.0-8.18.8
Jun272,82284,49863,49121,007188,3242.4-3.50.2-13.25.3
Jul273,02083,94263,20220,740189,0780.9-3.90.6-15.33.2
Aug274,43484,03963,42320,616190,395-0.3-4.50.4-17.01.7
Sep275,54082,58162,50820,073192,959-1.6-6.3-2.7-16.10.6
Oct275,51081,84162,30719,534193,669-2.7-7.8-3.4-19.3-0.4
Nov281,07481,67662,34219,334199,398-1.6-7.3-3.8-17.00.9
Dec281,43779,89260,91018,982201,5456.0-6.6-3.7-14.711.9
1999Jan291,62180,92761,73319,194210,6949.9-4.4-0.7-14.416.6
Feb294,14282,02363,19518,828212,1199.0-3.31.2-15.914.6
Mar285,94581,59362,73318,860204,3526.1-3.60.4-14.910.5
Apr282,71482,64563,51519,130200,0694.1-2.90.7-13.27.3
May281,32982,19662,84319,353199,1332.8-2.6-0.3-9.15.2
Jun284,27083,22963,83819,391201,0414.2-1.50.5-7.76.8
Jul285,56285,47165,49219,979200,0914.61.83.6-3.75.8
Aug286,23186,10765,40020,707200,1244.32.53.10.45.1
Sep288,88689,12067,70621,414199,7664.87.98.36.73.5
Oct293,42291,51069,73621,774201,9126.511.811.911.54.3
Nov296,13894,01971,14422,875202,1195.415.114.118.31.4
Dec286,79492,52870,10722,421194,2661.915.815.118.1-3.6
2000Jan286,54893,94569,74624,199192,603-1.716.113.026.1-8.6
Feb286,70194,69068,85125,839192,011-2.515.49.037.2-9.5
Mar284,41696,75169,67527,076187,665-0.518.611.143.6-8.2
Apr289,067103,15174,26028,891185,9162.224.816.951.0-7.1
May296,705124,97984,03340,946171,7265.552.033.7111.6-13.8
Jun299,073127,17984,74342,436171,8945.252.832.7118.8-14.5
Jul302,084129,32686,31643,010172,7585.851.331.8115.3-13.7
Aug303,027132,19786,26945,928170,8305.953.531.9121.8-14.6
Sep301,874137,54990,51847,031164,3254.554.333.7119.6-17.7
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Includes both private and public institutions, as well as normal and impaired credits.

Only includes freely allocated credit; excludes all forms of directed lending, including rural credit, and housing credit, and other onlending of public resources by private or public financial institutions. Also ignores substitution of sources; e.g., from suppliers credits (which are excluded) to bank lending (which is included).

Includes directed lending operations (mainly to agriculture and housing), and leasing.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Includes both private and public institutions, as well as normal and impaired credits.

Only includes freely allocated credit; excludes all forms of directed lending, including rural credit, and housing credit, and other onlending of public resources by private or public financial institutions. Also ignores substitution of sources; e.g., from suppliers credits (which are excluded) to bank lending (which is included).

Includes directed lending operations (mainly to agriculture and housing), and leasing.

Table 29.Brazil: Bank Lending Rates and Intermediation Spreads 1/(Annualized rates, in percent)
Average Lending Rates 2/Average Intermediation Spreads
TotalLoans to EnterprisesLoans to Private PersonsAverage Cost of Funds 3/TotalLoans to EnterprisesLoans to Private Persons
1994Dec186.8164.9256.150.0136.8114.9206.1
1995Dec151.2137.7206.536.3114.9101.4170.2
1996Jan120.9106.0189.534.586.471.5155.0
Feb110.895.6185.131.978.863.6153.2
Mar106.387.9179.829.177.258.9150.7
Apr101.683.5174.726.375.257.1148.4
May98.879.1155.626.372.552.9129.4
Jun91.974.2146.824.667.449.7122.3
Jul87.771.5135.422.864.848.7112.6
Aug86.969.8130.024.162.845.7105.9
Sep85.068.3127.223.561.544.9103.8
Oct79.566.7110.923.655.943.187.3
Nov78.965.6109.623.655.242.085.9
Dec77.965.6105.122.355.643.382.8
1997Jan77.064.3102.122.754.341.679.4
Feb81.267.0105.523.457.843.682.1
Mar78.365.0101.121.357.143.879.8
Apr74.562.594.321.053.541.573.3
May75.760.2101.621.354.438.980.3
Jun72.957.299.620.152.837.079.5
Jul70.755.596.620.050.635.576.6
Aug71.856.099.120.251.735.878.9
Sep70.554.698.119.950.534.778.2
Oct70.855.697.621.449.434.276.2
Nov98.580.9129.836.961.544.092.9
Dec96.479.7127.734.661.845.093.1
1998Jan96.177.9129.834.461.743.595.4
Feb99.079.0135.930.168.948.8105.8
Mar88.869.7123.324.564.345.298.8
Apr88.968.6126.422.366.646.3104.1
May82.362.5119.822.160.240.497.7
Jun79.859.8118.921.058.738.897.9
Jul74.757.0109.219.555.237.589.7
Aug73.256.5106.419.353.937.287.1
Sep86.770.5119.627.659.242.992.1
Oct92.675.8127.332.659.943.294.7
Nov89.171.6125.428.261.043.597.3
Dec85.469.2120.426.359.142.994.2
1999Jan92.076.7124.329.862.246.894.4
Feb103.186.2137.834.568.651.7103.2
Mar98.082.9128.832.965.150.095.9
Apr94.678.0129.226.668.051.4102.7
May83.968.2116.721.862.146.494.9
Jun77.261.2110.219.657.741.690.6
Jul72.956.1107.819.453.636.788.4
Aug71.955.6105.218.353.537.386.9
Sep71.755.3105.318.353.337.087.0
Oct70.654.8103.017.952.736.985.0
Nov67.352.597.718.149.234.479.6
Dec62.349.289.418.144.131.071.3
2000Jan60.047.883.318.042.029.865.3
Feb62.349.285.317.944.331.367.4
Mar58.346.278.318.040.328.160.3
Apr58.145.777.818.040.127.759.8
May57.444.175.118.239.225.956.9
Jun56.638.077.017.938.720.159.1
Jul54.335.973.616.637.719.357.0
Aug53.434.871.715.937.519.055.9
Sep53.434.571.416.237.218.355.2
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Only includes freely allocated credit from public and private institutions; excludes directed lending.

Weighted average of different types of lending operations.

Reflects the interbank deposit rate.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Only includes freely allocated credit from public and private institutions; excludes directed lending.

Weighted average of different types of lending operations.

Reflects the interbank deposit rate.

Table 30.Brazil: Exports by Principal Commodity Groups
19951996199719981999
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total exports46,50647,74752,99451,14048,011
Primary products10,96911,90014,47412,97711,828
Soybeans and soybran2,7673,7495,1333,9293,097
Iron ore2,5482,6952,8463,2532,746
Coffee beans1,9701,7192,7452,3322,230
Tobacco leaf7691,0291,091940884
Raw sugar 1/4080000
Other2,5072,7082,6592,5232,871
Industrial products34,71135,02637,67237,50735,311
Semi-manufactures9,1468,6138,4788,1207,982
Raw sugar 1/1,0421,1911,0451,0961,162
Steel products1,3691,2941,3591,2551,056
Paper paste1,447954958930901
Iron products838871876888730
Leather hides566678739657595
Soybean oil1,031685532724564
Cocoa products9211510813190
Other2,7612,8252,8612,4392,883
Manufactures25,56526,41329,19429,38727,329
Transport equipment3,2113,7215,6208,2037,119
Nonelectric machinery3,9044,1804,5314,3393,970
Electric machinery1,5031,5841,7831,7121,813
Airplanes1822846811,1591,772
Footwear1,4991,6501,5941,3871,342
Orange juice1,1321,4531,0581,2621,235
Lamin.planos, tubos, barras e perfis de ferro/aço1,8091,7231,3971,4651,204
Automobiles1,0401,2472,4881,6191,138
Petroleum derivatives8399499888651,118
Refined sugar366421726847748
Processed beef302243239314360
Soluble coffee456376349246211
Cotton fabrics and yam299278246224197
Other textiles1,1421,0141,021889813
Other11,86211,71311,4169,2027,865
Other exports826821848656872
(Annual percentage change)
Memorandum items:
Total exports6.82.711.0-3.5-6.1
Primary products-0.88.521.6-10.3-8.9
Semi-manufactures32.7-5.8-1.6-4.2-1.7
Manufactures2.43.310.50.7-7.0
Excluding automobiles and airplanes4.02.24.62.2-8.2
Total automobiles-25.919.999.5-34.9-29.7
Source: Secex-MDIC.

Raw sugar (primary) and crystal sugar (semi-manufactures), from 1996 and on, are included in raw sugar (semi-manufactures).

Source: Secex-MDIC.

Raw sugar (primary) and crystal sugar (semi-manufactures), from 1996 and on, are included in raw sugar (semi-manufactures).

Table 31.Brazil: Imports by End-Use
19951996199719981999
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total Imports, f.o.b.49,97253,34659,74557,73449,224
Consumer goods10,9279,72111,01110,7127,356
Foodstuffs2,6593,1552,7972,0402,951
Apparel804862979681424
Automobiles3,0401,5622,6412,6771,214
Others4,4244,1424,5945,3142,767
Raw materials22,38224,64627,13226,81324,042
Grains1,6652,1031,5831,8651,411
Of which:
Wheat9141,288822814832
Fertilizers6618601,021954864
Chemical products6,2877,1508,1118,3578,223
Inorganic chemical products638562553543504
Organic chemical products2,9873,1853,4883,4463,267
Other chemical products2,6623,4034,0704,3684,452
Cast iron and steel6997931,2541,375871
Nonferrous metals1,0969381,1271,091926
Coal764755807774598
Others11,21012,04713,22912,39711,149
Fuels and lubricants5,2176,2285,5974,1074,257
Crude oil2,5873,4593,2201,9652,169
Refined products2,6302,7692,3772,1422,088
Capital goods11,44612,70616,09816,09813,555
Transport equipment and components5,9404,5106,4566,7934,651
Automotive vehicles, tractors etc.5,5673,9795,4095,6663,440
Others3735311,0471,1271,211
Machines and electric materials5,7296,8768,5057,7587,443
(In percent)
Total imports100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Consumer goods21.917.617.220.18.9
Automobiles6.12.94.44.62.5
Other15.814.612.715.56.5
Raw materials44.846.245.446.448.8
Fuels and lubricants10.411.79.47.18.6
Capital goods23.421.325.025.224.6
Transport equipment and components11.98.510.811.89.4
Machines and electric materials11.512.914.213.415.1
(Annual percentage change)
Total imports51.16.812.0-3.4-14.7
Consumer goods97.2-11.013.3-2.7-31.3
Automobiles106.9-48.669.11.4-54.7
Other93.7-1.1-2.417.5-64.3
Raw materials43.410.110.1-1.2-10.3
Fuels and lubricants19.819.4-10.1-26.63.7
Capital goods51.111.026.70.0-15.8
Transport equipment and components208.3-24.143.15.2-31.5
Machines and electric materials1.420.023.7-8.8-4.1
Source: Secex - MICT.
Source: Secex - MICT.
Table 32.Brazil: International Reserves of the Central Bank 1/(In millions of U.S. dollars)
1993199419951996199719981999End August

2000
Net reserves24,94837,43851,04259,95151,65534,60023,47929,256
Gross reserves31,71138,48751,53360,08951,72943,97135,72531,043
Gold1,1071,4181,7671,3819031,353929494
SDRs2711140100
Foreign exchange30,60237,06249,76558,70750,82542,57834,78630,549
Liabilities6,7631,049491138749,37112,2451,778
Use of Fund credit30418614168314,8028,7991,767
Arrears6,44979628600000
Others liabilities10676470434,5693,44611
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Adjusted liquidity (“reservas líquidas ajustadas”) concept.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Adjusted liquidity (“reservas líquidas ajustadas”) concept.

Table 33.Brazil: Detailed Balance of Payments(In billions of U.S. dollars)
19951996199719981999
Current account balance-18.09-23.12-30.92-33.62-25.06
As a percentage of GDP-2.56-2.98-3.83-4.27-4.74
Trade balance (f.o.b.)-3.47-5.54-6.85-6.59-1.21
Exports46.5147.7552.9951.1448.01
Imports-49.97-53.29-59.84-57.73-49.22
Services and transfers-14.62-17.58-24.07-27.02-23.85
Services (net)-18.59-20.48-26.28-28.80-25.89
Interest payments-8.16-9.17-10.39-11.95-15.27
Revenues2.493.594.023.892.23
Expenditures-10.64-12.76-14.41-15.84-17.50
Other services-10.44-11.31-15.89-16.85-10.62
Revenues6.226.797.879.339.31
Expenditures-16.66-18.10-23.76-26.18-19.92
International travel-2.42-3.60-4.38-4.15-1.46
Revenues0.970.841.071.591.63
Expenditures-3.39-4.44-5.45-5.73-3.09
Transports-3.01-2.75-3.51-3.26-3.09
Revenues1.721.431.411.861.26
Expenditures-4.73-4.19-4.92-5.12-4.36
Insurance-0.12-0.060.070.08-0.13
Revenues0.190.240.410.390.16
Expenditures-0.31-0.30-0.34-0.31-0.29
Profits and dividends-2.97-2.90-5.75-7.30-4.10
Revenues0.911.470.910.491.43
Expenditures (inludes reinvestments)-3.88-4.37-6.66-7.79-5.53
Government-0.34-0.30-0.35-0.39-0.50
Revenues.0.130.200.500.550.32
Expenditures-0.47-0.51-0.85-0.93-0.82
Other-1.57-1.69-1.98-1.84-1.33
Revenues2.312.613.574.454.51
Expenditures-3.88-4.29-5.55-6.29-5.84
Unrequited transfers3.972.902.221.782.03
Credits4.233.172.542.222.33
Debits-0.25-0.27-0.33-0.44-0.30
Capital account balance31.5732.2722.9715.8914.54
Investment (net)5.0516.0720.8120.6230.04
Abroad by brazilians (net)-1.560.06-1.57-3.40-1.30
In Brazil by nonresidents6.6116.0222.3824.2831.34
Debt conversion0.310.290.662.171.20
FDI3.619.9817.0825.8729.99
Credit4.7810.5018.7428.4831.36
Debit-1.16-0.52-1.66-2.61-1.38
Portfolio investments2.296.045.30-1.851.35
Credit24.8426.0839.5531.8318.29
Debit-22.54-20.04-34.25-33.68-16.94
Reinvested profits0.380.530.150.12
Other0.010.030.050.10-1.30
Long-term capital6.5512.9420.3435.83-4.11
Multilateral-0.131.161.632.712.97
Disbursement1.652.873.154.174.59
Amortization-1.78-1.71-1.52-1.46-1.62
Bilateral-1.64-2.10-0.55-0.92-0.57
Inflow0.400.391.261.141.12
Amortization-2.04-2.49-1.81-2.06-1.69
Suppliers/buyers-0.43-1.0812.656.35-6.34
Disbursement1.451.2515.7819.5910.94
Amortization-1.89-2.32-3.13-13.24-17.28
Banks-0.03-3.08-0.143.15-2.40
Disbursement1.43-3.08-0.143.15-2.40
Amortization-1.46-0.56-2.43-5.75-2.67
Intercompany0.731.222.575.391.47
Disbursement1.131.222.575.391.47
Amortization-0.40-1.58-3.06-6.27-3.28
Bonds and notes7.8815.773.8420.093.28
Disbursement10.4116.0111.7222.763.69
Amortization-2.53-17.81-23.22-26.54-12.71
Other0.530.000.000.000.00
Disbursement1.451.110.54-0.76-0.32
Amortization-0.92-1.94-2.79-3.21-3.06
Refinancing0.310.000.000.000.00
Brazilian lending abroad-0.68-0.21-0.57-2.75-0.67
Short-term capital (net)18.835.75-17.53-27.29-0.24
Other (including errors and omissions)1.14-2.401.22-3.740.00
Overall balance13.489.14-7.95-17.72-10.52
Gross reserves (- = increase)-12.92-8.677.9517.7210.52
Liabilities-0.560.000.00-8.390.00
IMF-0.04-0.07-0.049.333.05
Bilateral support0.00-0.07-0.044.794.01
Monetary authority and short-term liabilit-0.520.150.07-22.52-7.06
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Table 34.Brazil: Direction of Trade 1/
199419951996199719981999
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total exports f.o.b.43,54546,50647,74752,98651,12048,011
Latin America 2/10,16310,39911,32214,21013,87310,561
MERCOSUL5,9216,1547,3069,0448,8776,778
Argentina4,1364,0415,1706,7676,7475,364
Paraguay1,0541,3011,3251,4061,249744
Uruguay732812811870881670
Other4,2424,2454,0165,1664,9963,783
EU 3/12,20212,91212,83614,51314,74413,736
United States 4/8,9518,7989,3129,4079,86510,849
Japan2,5743,1023,0473,0682,2022,193
Oil exports 5/8471,0781,1421,2811,6112,269
Eastern Europe 6/5349851,0561,3131,1631,175
Other8,2749,2329,0329,1947,6627,228
Total imports f.o.b.33,07949,97253,30159,83857,71149,222
Latin America 2/6,41110,03911,66113,17812,4139,458
MERCOSUL4,5836,8318,2679,5179,4276,721
Argentina3,6625,5816,7848,0328,0335,814
Paraguay352514551518351260
Uruguay5697379329671,042647
Other1,8273,2083,3943,6612,9862,737
EU 3/8,97213,75414,12015,87416,83114,984
United States 4/6,78710,51311,86513,90213,68811,872
Japan2,4123,2962,7613,5343,2742,576
Oil exporters 5/2,5342,2482,6652,7752,1323,745
Eastern Europe 6/8101,044978838810704
Other5,1539,0789,2529,7378,5635,883
(In percent)
Total exports f.o.b.100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Latin America 2/23.322.423.726.827.122.0
MERCOSUL13.613.215.317.117.414.1
Argentina9.58.710.812.813.211.2
Paraguay2.42.82.82.72.41.5
Uruguay1.71.71.71.61.71.4
Other9.79.12.49.79.87.9
EC 3/28.027.826.927.428.828.6
United States 4/20.618.919.517.819.322.6
Japan5.96.76.45.84.34.6
Oil exporters 5/1.92.32.42.43.24.7
Eastern Europe 6/1.22.12.22.52.32.4
Other19.019.918.917.415.015.1
Total imports f.o.b.100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Latin America 2/19.420.121.922.021.519.2
MERCOSUL13.913.715.515.916.313.7
Argentina11.111.212.713.413.911.8
Paraguay1.11.01.00.90.60.5
Uruguay1.71.51.71.61.81.3
Other5.56.46.46.15.25.6
EC 3/27.127.526.526.529.230.4
United States 4/20.521.022.323.223.724.1
Japan7.36.65.25.95.75.2
Oil exporters 5/7.74.55.04.63.77.6
Eastern Europe 6/2.42.11.81.41.41.4
Other15.618.217.416.314.812.0
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Imports are shown by country of origin.

Including ALADI, Central American Common Market and others from Latin America.

As from 1995, Austria, Finland, and Sweden joined the European Union. The series was rearranged in accordance with the present composition.

Including Puerto Rico.

Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lybia, Nigeria, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Includes; Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romenia, Slovak Republic, and former Soviet Union countries.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Imports are shown by country of origin.

Including ALADI, Central American Common Market and others from Latin America.

As from 1995, Austria, Finland, and Sweden joined the European Union. The series was rearranged in accordance with the present composition.

Including Puerto Rico.

Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lybia, Nigeria, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Includes; Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romenia, Slovak Republic, and former Soviet Union countries.

Table 35.Brazil: Total External Debt(In millions of U.S. dollars)
19951996199719981999End-May

2000
Registered debt129,313144,092167,760220,350219,196220,470
Public sector 1/87,16884,22976,20592,02197,44898,189
Banks6,1385,6425,3487,0556,1795,931
Brazilian1,9679109541,2161,1671,166
Foreign4,1714,7324,3945,8395,0114,765
Multilateral8,8378,8809,23620,55226,21125,888
Bilateral (Paris Club included)18,48015,08912,51812,70211,69611,539
Debt bond from banks51,45151,23941,93040,41835,32430,458
Others2,2623,3797,17311,29318,03824,374
Private sector42,14559,86391,555128,329121,748122,282
Banks30,25246,67367,75987,06884,74185,242
Brazilian3,8085,4488,8639,93710,84911,358
Foreign26,44441,22558,89677,13173,89273,884
Multilateral1,9842,5133,1503,8354,3184,317
Bilateral7009161,9964,9733,5313,486
Others9,2099,76118,65032,45229,15829,236
Nonregistered debt29,94335,84332,23821,29422,27222,061
Public sector 1/3,7085,2325,7373,3833,3183,921
Arrears28600000
Banks28600000
Others000000
Paris Club000000
Credit lines3,4215,1625,6953,3553,3183,921
Banco Central do Brasil170422800
New money trade000000
Others170422800
Private sector26,23530,61126,50117,91118,95418,140
Credit lines000000
Commercial banks (liabilities)26,23530,61126,50117,91118,95418,140
Total external debt159,256179,935199,998241,644241,468242,531
Public sector 1/87,45584,29976,24795,404100,766102,110
Private sector71,80195,636123,751146,240140,702140,422
International reserves51,84060,11052,17344,55636,34239,200
Commercial banks assets8,93011,6759,6397,3807,5345,943
Net total external debt98,486108,150138,186189,708197,591197,388
Memorandum items:
Total external debt (percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services)285.1310.9307.3377.6422.4442.4
Total external debt (percent of GDP)30.745.640.038.237.641.2
Short-term debt (percent of gross international reserves57.862.970.459.375.470.0
Foreign banks57,51078,10692,267102,10998,91998,475
Registered30,61545,95763,29082,97078,90378,649
Nonregistered26,89532,14928,97719,14020,01619,826
Brazilian banks8,8229,98213,07813,30814,27314,759
Registered5,7756,3589,81711,15312,01712,524
Nonregistered3,0473,6243,2612,1542,2562,235
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Nonfinancial public sector. Excludes Petrobras and Vale do Rio Doce.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

Nonfinancial public sector. Excludes Petrobras and Vale do Rio Doce.

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1Prepared by Marco Rossi. Hamid Faruqee and Susanna Mursula adapted MULTIMOD to incorporate Brazil and generated the simulations.
2MULTIMOD is a dynamic multicountry macro model of the world economy, which has been developed mainly for G7 and smaller industrial countries. The core model has been modified to include Brazil, including by using specific estimates for parameters such as the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (interest rate sensitivity of private savings) and the share of liquidity-constrained households in total households. The former is taken from Ogaki et al. (1996), while for the latter a slightly lower coefficient than that estimated in Amadeo and Neri (1999) is used. For more details on MULTIMOD, see Laxton et al. (1998); in particular Box 10 on the various steps necessary to integrate additional countries into MULTIMOD.
3Brazil has gradually opened its economy during the 1990s. It would benefit from its further integration into the world economy, including through enhancing access to foreign markets as trade barriers on those productions in which Brazil is highly competitive are reduced.
4Since 1996, domestic production of crude oil has increased by more than 50 percent. Domestic production increased from 64 percent of total oil consumption in 1997 to 80 percent in 2000. In the future, domestic and foreign investments in the exploration and exploitation of existing oil fields should continue to reduce Brazil’s dependence on imported crude oil.
5Foreign trade and transport costs are correlated given the relatively small national shipping fleet.
6Long-term in the sense that it appears to be sustainable for an emerging market country that is further integrating in the global economy and able to attract substantial long-term foreign financing. As noted, it will absorb about 0.2 percent of rest-of-the-world private savings. Net foreign liabilities will stabilize at about 37 percent of GDP.
7In this scenario, and contrary to the baseline, the risk premium is assumed not to decline over time.
8In MULTIMOD, productivity is expressed as total factor productivity (TFP) in the standard revenue function of the representative firm.
9The small open economy model assumes that the country is a price-taker in the world market for goods and capital.
10In Scenarios I and II, the assumption is that the debt-to-GDP ratio is reduced to its baseline level by 2025.
11Initially (2001–07) net foreign liabilities will be slightly lower than in the baseline scenario because of the valuation impact of an appreciated currency.
12Risk premia start to come down in 2010 rather than in 2002 as in the baseline scenario.
13Simulation results under Scenarios I, II, and III in the multicountry version of MULTIMOD are very similar to those run in the small open economy version because of Brazil’s small weight in the global economy.
14First-round effects are those stemming directly from the shocked country. For example, the impact of a shock in the United States on Brazil’s trade balance. Second-round effects are those stemming from the shocked country, via third countries. For example, the impact of a shock in the United States on Brazil’s trade balance, via its effects on another G7 country.
15Tighter monetary policy is assumed to generate an increase in United States short-term interest rates of up to 150 basis points by 2003.
16The market value of these net foreign liabilities would also be higher because of the appreciated U.S. dollar.

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