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Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
March 2002
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IV. An Assessment Of External Vulnerability54

A. Introduction

85. This chapter will examine Kazakhstan’s external vulnerability both in historical context and in a forward-looking assessment:

  • Following the Russian crisis, Kazakhstan experienced intensified exchange market pressure and large external adjustments, including floating the tenge, from late 1998 to early 1999. This chapter examines various external vulnerability indicators in a cross-country and cross-time manner to see whether the indicators had indeed signaled Kazakhstan’s vulnerability to a crisis and to illustrate the nature of external pressure during late 1998 and early 1999.
  • This chapter will also evaluate Kazakhstan’s current external position by reviewing the movement of vulnerability indicators and by comparing Kazakhstan’s indicators with those of selected transition/emerging economies from 1999 till now.
  • Finally, chapter will discuss critical factors underlying Kazakhstan’s future external vulnerability.

B. A Historical Perspective

Background: what happened during 1998-99?

86. During 1998, Kazakhstan was hit by a series of external shocks: weakness in oil and raw material markets, a poor grain harvest, turmoil in international financial markets, and spillovers of the Russian crisis (especially the sharp depreciation of the ruble). As a result, economic activity contracted from the third quarter of 1998 through the first quarter of 1999. On the domestic side, fiscal policy was loosened in late 1998. In view of deteriorating confidence in the tenge and loss of competitiveness, the government announced a shift to a freely floating exchange regime on April 4, 199955 following which the tenge depreciated sharply. As of end-June 1999, the tenge had depreciated about 51 percent compared to the level on the eve of the regime switch.

Is the episode of April 1999 a currency crisis?

87. Three widely used standards in the economic literature are adopted to measure the exchange market pressure from 1997-2000 and to identify the nature of the regime switch in April 1999.

88. Frankel and Rose (1996) defined a currency crisis “as a nominal depreciation of the currency of at least 25 percent that is also at least a 10 percent increase in the rate of depreciation”. The episode in 1999 easily satisfies this definition. The tenge depreciated by about 65 percent in 1999, against 11 percent in 1998. In the month of April 1999 alone, the tenge depreciated by 31 percent, against 2.5 percent in March 1999.

89. Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) used an index based on a weighted average of the monthly changes of the nominal exchange rates (e) and reserves (R) to measure exchange market pressure. The weights were calculated to equal the conditional variances of the two variables in the index.

90. They defined a crisis as a month in which the index was at least three standard deviations from its mean. Again, the episode in April 1999 falls into this definition.

91. Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1996) constructed an index based on a weighted average of the monthly changes of the nominal exchange rates (e), reserves (R) and interest rates (i). The formula is:

92. They defined a crisis as a month in which the index was at least two standard deviations from its mean. The episode in April 1999 easily satisfies their definition. The above two indexes are provided in Text Table 8 and Figure 8. It is clear that both indexes peaked in the month of April 1999.

Figure 8.Kazakhstan: Indexes of Exchange Market Pressure, 1997–2001

Source: The Kazakhstan authorities, IFS and Fund staff estimates.

Text Table 8.Kazakhstan: Indexes of Exchange Market Pressure, 1998-1999
KLR (1998) Indexes ERW (1996) IndexesMonthly Percent Changes
Exchange Rate 1/Official Reserves 2/Interest Rate 3/
January 19988.788.331.13-13.21-1.02
February0.662.930.00-2.178.15
March1.853.300.13-0.8212.91
April-4.22-4.060.005.47-4.68
May4.221.800.13-7.62-12.48
June-1.303.280.462.2619.50
July-0.201.530.45-0.703.23
August6.4610.251.68-10.0913.87
September9.5013.052.04-15.6810.54
October-0.473.621.56-1.864.86
November-0.950.511.787.0412.82
December 1998-7.48-2.061.098.096.66
January 19995.545.111.31-5.802.58
February2.07-2.640.595.57-0.46
March11.4210.362.46-14.09-0.05
April32.3231.8330.86-1.480.69
May14.2612.5111.79-1.66-1.01
June4.073.622.34-2.39-0.32
July-3.37-3.950.924.56-10.99
August-5.76-8.89-0.1510.78-12.82
September8.819.416.06-5.880.24
October-5.97-6.160.4311.32-1.13
November-7.30-14.56-1.8510.97-31.25
December 1999-4.14-5.050.148.72-1.40
Source: The Kazakhstan authorities, and Fund staff estimates.

Nominal exchange rate tenge per U.S. dollar.

Kazakhstan’s International reserves minus gold scaled by the U.S. international reserves minus gold.

The spread of Kazakhstan’s 3-month treasury bill against the U.S. 3-month treasury bill.

Source: The Kazakhstan authorities, and Fund staff estimates.

Nominal exchange rate tenge per U.S. dollar.

Kazakhstan’s International reserves minus gold scaled by the U.S. international reserves minus gold.

The spread of Kazakhstan’s 3-month treasury bill against the U.S. 3-month treasury bill.

93. In sum, the shift to a floating exchange rate regime in April 1999 can be classified as a response to a balance of payments crisis under three widely used standards. This result is robust to different sample periods and different data sources. Given the intensified exchange market pressure, we would expect some indicators to have picked up Kazakhstan’s vulnerability before early 1999.

Vulnerability indicators before the early 1999 crisis

94. In this section, a number of indicators for 1997–98 are examined to see whether they would have signaled the intense balance of payments pressure before April 1999. Crosscountry comparisons of the indicators are also made in order to see Kazakhstan’s position among the 16 selected transition/emerging market economies.56 The indicators fall into three groups: competitiveness-related (Text Tables 912), debt-related (Text Tables 1315) and reserves-related (Text Tables 1619).

95. The economic situation looked worrisome by end-1998. After scoring slightly positive real growth in 1996 and 1997, output contracted by about 2 percent in 1998. Due to the weakness in world oil and raw material markets, Kazakhstan’s terms of trade deteriorated by 11 percent in 1998. In U.S. dollar terms, the nominal export growth rate was on a sharply declining track from 1996. Exports in nominal terms decreased by 15 percent in 1998. Nominal imports fell as well in 1998 due to depressed domestic demand, though to a less extent than exports, indicating a dominant income effect.

Text Table 9.Annual REER Change, 1997-2000 1/
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN4.553.66-1.47-10.02
BULGARIA19.61613.4132.1111.69
CZECH REPUBLIC0.818.29-1.480.17
ESTONIA1.7312.41211.214-5.05
HUNGARY5.27-0.851.690.68
KAZAKHSTAN5.2813.614-9.73-6.13
LATVIA6.7129.41121.4152.711
LITHUANIA11.71314.71526.7162.010
POLAND2.445.08-4.048.312
ROMANIA16.51530.116-14.929.514
RUSSIA5.69-11.41-29.3112.216
SLOVAK REPUBLIC4.96-2.24-2.469.313
SLOVENIA0.924.672.010-1.86
TURKEY6.4118.5104.11211.115
UKRAINE13.314-2.43-4.05-5.44
UZBEKISTAN6.210-4.328.313-26.21
Mean7.06.40.70.2
Median5.46.60.11.1
Source: INS.

An increase in the index indicates an real appreciation.

Source: INS.

An increase in the index indicates an real appreciation.

Text Table 10.Growth of exports of goods and services, 1997-2000
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN22.75-11.91126.4161.91
BULGARIA6.110-14.714-3.1820.66
CZECH REPUBLIC0.21313.02-1.969.312
ESTONIA23.7415.11-3.5919.68
HUNGARY32.225.173.1514.110
KAZAKHSTAN11.08-13.0138.0353.22
LATVIA32.315.6613.22-5.016
LITHUANIA24.13-2.99-16.41621.15
POLAND11.279.24-12.3147.113
ROMANIA3.411-4.4103.7422.84
RUSSIA0.312-15.415-2.9736.03
SLOVAK REPUBLIC8.4910.73-6.11115.89
SLOVENIA-0.3146.35-5.4101.615
TURKEY13.965.08-14.41511.511
UKRAINE-0.815-12.712-7.91220.37
UZBEKISTAN-2.616-16.716-8.3135.714
Mean11.6-1.4-1.719.7
Median9.71.0-3.317.7
Source: WEO.
Source: WEO.
Text Table 11.Current Account Balance, 1997-2000(In percent of GDP)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN-24.516-30.516-13.216-2.75
BULGARIA4.41-0.52-5.311-5.812
CZECH REPUBLIC-6.111-2.36-2.96-4.610
ESTONIA-12.215-9.212-4.710-6.415
HUNGARY-2.15-4.99-4.39-3.67
KAZAKHSTAN-3.78-5.5101.038.02
LATVIA-5.110-9.813-9.714-6.816
LITHUANIA-10.214-12.115-11.215-6.013
POLAND-3.06-4.38-7.513-6.314
ROMANIA6.112-7.111-4.18-3.99
RUSSIA-0.13-0.6311.7118.01
SLOVAK REPUBLIC-10.113-10.014-5.712-3.78
SLOVENIA0.12-0.84-3.97-3.26
TURKEY-1.441.01-0.74-4.911
UKRAINE-3.57-3.172.624.73
UZBEKISTAN-4.09-0.85-1.051.44
Mean-5.5-6.3-3.7-1.6
Median-3.8-4.6-4.2-3.8
Source: WEO.
Source: WEO.
Text Table 12.Terms of Trade, 1997-2000(Annual change)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN16.02-50.81650.1150.91
BULGARIA-1.6144.04-2.515-9.215
CZECH REPUBLIC2.684.33-1.010-2.711
ESTONIA-0.7130.3112.26-0.610
HUNGARY4.852.76-1.5142.17
KAZAKHSTAN3.06-11.5148.538.34
LATVIA-6.8160.983.553.85
LITHUANIA2.69-1.0124.640.08
POLAND1.8111.37-0.29-4.412
ROMANIA7.74-5.6130.273.76
RUSSIA13.73-14.515-1.41327.02
SLOVAK REPUBLIC1.9106.92-1.011-0.59
SLOVENIA-2.0150.79-1.012-6.113
TURKEY-0.2123.35-4.216-6.414
UKRAINE16.7115.3123.72-18.216
UZBEKISTAN2.870.310-0.189.53
Mean3.9-2.75.03.6
Median2.60.8-0.1-0.3
Source: WEO.
Source: WEO.
Text Table 13.External Debt, 1997-2000 1/(In percent of GDP, end of period)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN10.3211.6118.8421.09
BULGARIA85.41670.21669.31671.716
CZECH REPUBLIC19.6820.4919.0518.97
ESTONIA24.81229.11120.6719.88
HUNGARY45.11546.21543.41438.714
KAZAKHSTAN14.8718.3825.91117.75
LATVIA8.5113.1315.2112.31
LITHUANIA12.3616.1521.0821.010
POLAND21.71022.11022.3917.13
ROMANIA20.0916.3717.6316.42
RUSSIA23.31144.61455.51536.513
SLOVAK REPUBLIC26.51334.31332.81227.712
SLOVENIA12.4415.9420.1624.711
TURKEY29.61429.81236.31339.115
UKRAINE12.4516.6622.41018.06
UZBEKISTAN10.8312.6217.1217.14
Mean23.616.128.626.1
Median19.819.321.720.4
Source: WEO and the joml B15-IMF-QECD-WB database
Source: WEO and the joml B15-IMF-QECD-WB database
Text Table 14.External Debt, 1997-2000 1/(In percent of exports of goods and services)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN35.6751.0767.41053.310
BULGARIA123.616143.815148.315123.015
CZECH REPUBLIC34.6634.3431.3226.72
ESTONIA31.6536.6526.7120.81
HUNGARY81.31281.51276.51159.811
KAZAKHSTAN42.2959.91060.5829.13
LATVIA19.1129.1231.8330.35
LITHUANIA22.9334.1352.9646.08
POLAND101.114103.413116.61385.014
ROMANIA70.71174.01162.9949.89
RUSSIA96.913144.316126.51479.613
SLOVAK REPUBLIC46.01056.1952.9737.66
SLOVENIA21.6227.9138.3442.27
TURKEY113.715114.914150.916157.716
UKRAINE26.7439.5643.5529.24
UZBEKISTAN39.4855.8894.41271.212
Mean56.767.973.858.8
Median40.855.961.747.9
Source: WEOand the joml BIS-IMF-OECD-WB database
Source: WEOand the joml BIS-IMF-OECD-WB database
Text Table 15.Short-term External Debt, 1997-2000 2/(In percent of total extermal debt)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN1.512.313.7119.74
BULGARIA9.025.825.325.81
CZECH REPUBLIC56.01670.31658.81563.015
ESTONIA40.61436.412122.416108.916
HUNGARY28.8938.41435.51234.712
KAZAKHSTAN11.9317.4614.1515.83
LATVIA16.1628.11035.01148.014
LITHUANIA15.8525.9932.71034.711
POLAND13.7420.4723.0730.99
ROMANIA20.2732.71124.9928.67
RUSSIA33.31114.5511.6313.82
SLOVAK REPUBLIC43.41536.81338.51432.510
SLOVENIA33.01024.8820.6630.68
TURKEY37.21239.6I537.91341.913
UKRAINE27.68104413.9421.25
UZBEKISTAN37.6139.4323.3825.26
Mean26.625.831.334.7
Median28.225.324.130.8
Source: WEO and thejoint B1S-IMF-OECD-WB database

External debt covers official loans, bank loans, non-bank trade credits and debt securities issued abroad of all maturities.

Short-term debt is calculated on a remaining maturity basis

Source: WEO and thejoint B1S-IMF-OECD-WB database

External debt covers official loans, bank loans, non-bank trade credits and debt securities issued abroad of all maturities.

Short-term debt is calculated on a remaining maturity basis

Text Table 16.Reserves, 1997-2000(In percent of M2)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN90.02101.02132.41111.31
CZECH REPUBLIC26.01331.2931.41232.812
ESTONIA53.9454.9448.4654.36
HUNGARY39.2943.3748.3748.98
KAZAKHSTAN97.01102.9186.9274.53
LATVIA34.71131.01050.4551.97
LITHUANIA64.8368.1353.7354.45
POLAND38.01043.5639.9835.711
ROMANIA45.7529.01132.4947.89
RUSSIA21.11518.51431.81161.04
SLOVAK REPUBLIC24.41421.91327.01331.013
SLOVENIA42.3739.2831.81035.810
TURKEY27.71225.31224.81425.714
UKRAINE40.1812.01519.71523.415
UZBEKISTAN45.4650.6553.7480.92
Mean46.044.847.551.3
Median40.139.239.948.9
Source: WEO
Source: WEO
Text Table 17.Reserves, 1997-2000(In months of imports of goods and services)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN2.7102.2114.264.17
CZECH REPUBLIC3.664.424.554.16
ESTONIA2.2112.1122.4132214
HUNGARY4.034.144.644.35
KAZAKHSTAN3.373.073.672.812
LATVIA2.1121.7132.6123.68
LITHUANIA2.0132.792.7112.813
POLAND5.816.917.016.61
ROMANIA3.842.883.0103.510
RUSSIA1.8141.4142.1144.83
SLOVAK REPUBLIC2.892.3103.193.311
SLOVENIA3.853.863.383.59
TURKEY4.024.235.824.44
UKRAINE1.3150.5150.8150.915
UZBEKISTAN3.284.154.735.72
Mean3.13.13.63.8
Median3.22.83.33.6
Source: WEO
Source: WEO
Text Table 18.Reserves, 1997-2000(In months of imports of goods and services 1/)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN7768.213727.712101.81311.72
CZECH REPUBLIC168.69154.08210.46213.89
ESTONIA163.410146.1965.01584.814
HUNGARY141.612111.711147.010172.011
KAZAKHSTAN572.43279.56321.94410.11
LATVIA677.72215.87242.85245.54
LITHUANIA539.04316.65164.39161.212
POLAND478.15384.74333.23308.93
ROMANIA277.37131.210184.27236.06
RUSSIA41.01546.81573.014196.510
SLOVAK REPUBLIC140.313109.012137.711235.67
SLOVENIA445.56472.53381.22242.05
TURKEY89.91483.21492.21369.015
UKRAINE157.311105.613107.612113.613
UZBEKISTAN194.88659.92.182.98232.58
Mean790.4463.0316.4215.6
Median194.8154.0182.9232.5
Source: WEO and the joint BIS-IMF-OECD-WB database
Source: WEO and the joint BIS-IMF-OECD-WB database
Text Table 19.Reserves, 1997-2000

(In percent of total external debt 2/)

1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN114.0286.52.377.9561.59
CZECH REPUBLIC94.34108.22123.61134.71
ESTONIA66.3853.3879.6392.44
HUNGARY40.81342.91152.1959.710
KAZAKHSTAN68.0748.8945.51164.88
LATVIA109.1360.7785.02117.92
LITHUANIA85.2582.0453.7755.912
POLAND65.3978.6576.7695.53
ROMANIA56.01143.01045.91067.57
RUSSIA13.7156.8158.51527.114
SLOVAK REPUBLIC60.81040.11253.0876.65
SLOVENIA147.01117.1178.7474.16
TURKEY33.41432.91335.01328.913
UKRAINE43.41211.01414.91424.115
UZBEKISTAN73.3662.3642.61258.511
Mean71.458.358.269.3
Median66.353.353.064.8
Source: WEO and the joint BIS-IMF-OECD-WB database

Short-term debt is calculated on a remaining maturity basis.

External debt covers official loans, bank loans, non-bank trade credits and debt securities issued abroad of all maturities.

Source: WEO and the joint BIS-IMF-OECD-WB database

Short-term debt is calculated on a remaining maturity basis.

External debt covers official loans, bank loans, non-bank trade credits and debt securities issued abroad of all maturities.

96. Competitiveness-related indicators: Three common competitiveness indicators are examined: annual change of real effective exchange rate (REER), annual export growth and the current account deficit (Text Tables 9, 10, and 11). Those indicators show considerable deterioration of Kazakhstan’s competitiveness before the crisis. The REER of the tenge appreciated by more than 30 percent from 1996 to 1998. Though the tenge was appreciating in real terms in 1997, its position in the sixteen selected countries was about the median level. In 1998, Kazakhstan quickly found itself in the lower half of the sample. Kazakhstan’s annual REER appreciation reached 13.6 percent in 1998, only surpassed by Romania and Lithuania. Its annual growth rate of nominal exports of goods and services was a negative 13 percent and ranked number 13 among all sixteen countries.

97. To generate a more complete picture, annual changes of terms of trade are provided in Text 12. Kazakhstan’s terms of trade deteriorated significantly in 1998 as a result of low world oil and raw material prices. Not surprisingly, Kazakhstan’s current account deficit peaked at 5.6 percent in 1998 after hovering around at 3.6 percent in 1996 and 1997.

98. The sharp appreciation of the tenge in 1998 was a direct result of the crisis in Russia, the most important trade partner of Kazakhstan (Figure 9). The tenge appreciated gradually in real terms from 1996 to mid-1998. Following the sharp nominal depreciation of the ruble during the Russian crisis, the REER of the tenge increased significantly in August-September 1998, indicating a significant loss of competitiveness. The loosening of fiscal policy increased the concerns over the sustainability of the current account deficit. The crosscountry comparison of fiscal indicators (Text Tables 2022) shows Kazakhstan to be well in the lower half among the sample in both 1997 and 1998. Eventually, concerns of the tenge’s overvaluation and the sustainability of the current account deficit led to the weakening of market confidence and the balance of payments crisis manifested itself in April 1999.

99. Debt-related indicators: Based on both a cross-country database and a Kazakhstan-specific database, debt-related indicators generally show that Kazakhstan was in a comfortable position to service its external debt before the crisis, although its debt level was increasing quickly.

100. To minimize problems with comparability of external debt data, a cross-country database, the joint BIS/IMF/OECD/WB database, is used to calculate debt-related indicators. Total outstanding external debt at the end of a 12-month period is scaled against GDP and exports of goods and services (Text Tables 1314). In the cross-country comparison, almost all indicators of Kazakhstan’s indebtedness are below the median level in the sample. However, although Kazakhstan’s position among the 16 selected countries remained almost unchanged, its external debt level scaled against GDP and exports all increased from 1997 to 1998.

Figure 9.Kazakhstan: Exchange Rate Indicators, 1998–1999

(Indexes, April 1999=100)

Source: The Kazakhstan authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

1/ An increase in the index indicates an appreciation.

Text Table 20.Central Government Balance, 1997-2000(In percent of GDP)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
BULGARIA-2.571.01-1.03-1.16
CZECH REPUBLIC-0.93-1.65-1.65-2.310
ESTONIA2.41-0.12-2.45-0.63
HUNGARY-1.75-1.86-0.82-0.62
KAZAKHSTAN-6.913-7.614-5.411-1.27
LATVIA0.32-0.83-3.910-3.312
LITHUANIA-l.86-5.812-8.113-2.711
POLAND-2.69-2.89-5.512-4.913
ROMANIA-3.610-3.110-3.59-2.09
RUSSIA-6.812-4.811-1.341.91
SLOVAK REPUBLIC-2.65-2.27-1.76-1.78
SLOVENIA-1.04-1.04-0.51-0.74
TURKEY-7.814-7.613-11.714-11.214
UKRAINE-5.411-2.88-2.37-1.05
Mean-2.9-2.9-3.5-2.2
Median-2.6-2.5-2.3-1.4
Source: WEO
Source: WEO
Text Table 21.General Government Balance, 1997-2000(In percent of GDP)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN-1.63-3.99-1.8140.42
BULGARIA-2.581.01-1.03-1.14
CZECH REPUBLIC-2.06-2.45-3.16-4.415
ESTONIA2.21-0.32-4.612-0.33
HUNGARY-4.810-4.810-3.710-3.512
KAZAKHSTAN-6.914-7.715-4.713-1.25
LATVIA0.32-0.83-3.911-3.311
LITHUANIA-1.85-5.913-8.515-2.89
POLAND-3.29-3.37-3.68-3.010
ROMANIA-5.211-5.412-3.79-3.714
RUSSIA-7.615-6.914-0.213.81
SLOVAK REPUBLIC-5.312-4.811-3.47-3.513
SLOVENIA-1.74-0.94-0.92-1.26
TURKEY-9.316-8.716-13.016-12.516
UKRAINE-5.613-2.86-2.44-1.37
UZBEKISTAN-2.47-3.38-2.65-2.38
Mean-3.6-3.81.0-2.5
Median-2.8-3.6-3.6-2.5
Source: WEO
Source: WEO
Text Table 22.General Government Balance, 1997-2000(In percent of GDP)
1997199819992000
RankRankRankRank
AZERBAIJAN-1.512-3.814-4.4150.97
BULGARIA6.715.823.043.23
CZECH REPUBLIC-0.88-1.210-2.111-3.416
ESTONIA2.730.26-4.2140.010
HUNGARY5.423.133.822.74
KAZAKHSTAN-6.316-6.916-3.4130.29
LATVIA1.250.25-3.112-2.515
LITHUANIA-1.09-1.715-7.016-1.013
POLAND0.36-0.17-0.58-0.411
ROMANIA-1.411-0.791.751.36
RUSSIA-2.813-3.0133.236.42
SLOVAK REPUBLIC-3.514-2.511-0.69-0.812
SLOVENIA-0.570.340.560.38
TURKEY1.947.919.418.31
UKRAINE-3.715-0.480.271.75
UZBEKISTAN-1.110-2.612-2.010-1.614
Mean-0.3-0.5-0.31.0
Median-0.9-0.6-0.50.2
Source: WEO
Source: WEO

101. As the joint BIS/IMF/OECD/WB database does not provide a comprehensive coverage of external debt for individual debtor country, the Kazakhstan-specific database is used to examine the movement of external debt indicators from 1996 to 1998.57 Even though the level of Kazakhstan’s outstanding debt was manageable, it had been growing quickly from 1996 to 1998 (Text Table 23). In U.S. dollar terms, the stock of external debt increased by 32 percent and 9 percent in 1997 and 1998 respectively. Kazakhstan’s external debt in percent of GDP increased from 34 percent in 1996 to 41 percent in 1997 and then to 45 percent in 1998. The external debt (excluding intra-company loans) in percent of exports also increased continuously from 73 percent in 1996 to 84 percent in 1997 and then to 96 percent in 1998. In this sense, the quick increase of Kazakhstan’s external debt till end-1998, though manageable, may have contributed to the negative market sentiment in early 1999.

Text Table 23.Kazakhstan: Indicators of Vulnerability, 1996-2001(In percent uf GDP unless otherwise indicated)
199619971998199920002001
Prat.
Financial Indicators
Broad money (12-month percent change)13.829.2-13382.745.938.9
Private sector credit (12-month percent change)-11.523.429.962.581.353.6
Refinance rate (period average, in percent)39.225.920.122.315.211.9 1/
Average yield an 3-month T-bill (in percent)38.017.619.623.311.75.3 2/
External Indicators
Competitiveness-related
Experts (nominal percent change. 12-month basis in US$)15.79.7-14.94360.0-1.8
o/w Non-oil exports (percent change, 12-month basis)11.13.8-19.3-6.429.51.0
Imports (nominal percent change. 12-month basis in US$)24.48.3-7.0-15.421.323.0
Terms of trade (12-month percent change)3.12.7-11.49.318.8-5.3
Current account balance-3.6-3.6-5.6-0.25.1-3.6
Capital and financial account balance5.57.18.65.55.84.8
o/w Foreign direct investment (in millions of US$)113713201143153312452351
Exchange rate (per US$, period average)67.875.578.5113.9142.1146.3 1/
Annual REER appreciation (+)(CPI-based, e.o.p.)5.18.421.1-26.63.7-3.3 3/
Reserves-related
Gross official reserves
- in millions of US$196122521964200320962520
- in months of imports3.13.13.03.62.82.9
- in percent of short-term external debt 4/141.0115.684.6111.0139.2122.1
- in percent of total external debt27.624.919.916.616.717.8
- excluding intra-company loans38.334.530.234.136.240.4
Gross official reserves/Broad money (M2)1.11.01.11.00.80.7
Gross official reserves/Narrow money (MO)1.91.62.02.22.32.3
Debt-related
Central bank short-term foreign liabilities (in millions of US$)589.6513.8651.6462.52.11.3 2/
Short-term foreign liabilities of commercial banks (in millions of USS)33.144.8260.296.9164.4434.6 2/
Short-term external debt 4/
- in millions of US$1390.31947.52320.91804.61505.82064.6
- in percent of GDP6.78.810.510.68.210.1
- in percent of total external debt19.621.623.515.012.014.6
Total external debt
- it millions of UBS709690279878120341257214133
- excluding intra-company loans511365236506587257876234
- in percent of GDP34.140.844.871.068.869.2
- excluding intra-company loans24.629.529.534.631.730.5
- in percent of exports of goods and services101.9116.6145.8170.6115.0130.4
- excluding intra-company loans73.484.396.083.253.057.5
Public external interest payments (in percent of exports of gnfs)1.82.53.02.92.32.3
Public external amortization payments (in percent of exports of gnfs)3.43.74.79.06.02.3
Net public external debt (in million a of US$) 5/1934.22319.61994.52040.51883.5172.8
National Fund (NFRK) assets (in millions of US$)1373.5
Financial Market Indicators
Foreign currency debt rating
Moody’sBa3Ba3Ba3B1BlBa2
Standard and Poor’sBB-BBB+B+BB-BB
Spread over benchmark bonds (basis points, period average)438903567326235 1/
Source: The Kazakhstan authorities, and Fund star? estimates.

as of Nov.2001

as of Oct. 2001

as of Sept. 2001

The National Bank of Kazakhstan does not compile short-term debt statistics on a remaining maturity basis. Before 2000, the short-term debt data are on an "original maturity" basis. From 2000 onwards, the short-term debt is estimated by Fund staff on a remaining maturity basis.

Total external public debt minus gross official reserves, and minus the NFRK assets.

Source: The Kazakhstan authorities, and Fund star? estimates.

as of Nov.2001

as of Oct. 2001

as of Sept. 2001

The National Bank of Kazakhstan does not compile short-term debt statistics on a remaining maturity basis. Before 2000, the short-term debt data are on an "original maturity" basis. From 2000 onwards, the short-term debt is estimated by Fund staff on a remaining maturity basis.

Total external public debt minus gross official reserves, and minus the NFRK assets.

102. Reserves-related indicators: Recent financial crises have highlighted serious problems associated with sudden liquidity shortages. As a primary measure of liquidity, reserves are usually examined against broad money (M2), imports of goods and services, and short-term external debt. This section will look at those indicators of reserves adequacy for Kazakhstan to see if they have reinforced the signals from competitiveness-related and debt- related vulnerability indicators. Kazakhstan’s reserves-related indicators show that by 1998 Kazakhstan’s reserve level was neither very high nor very vulnerable. From 1997 to 1998, Kazakhstan ranked the first place in terms of reserves to broad money ratio and the seventh place in terms of import coverage of reserves among the 14 selected countries (Text Tables 16-17). The ratio of reserves to short-term external debt is regarded “the single most important indicator of reserve adequacy in countries with significant but uncertain access to capital markets”.58 In terms of its ratio of reserves to short-term debt, Kazakhstan remained well in the upper half of the sample for both 1997 and 1998 (Text Table 18).

103. However, Kazakhstan’s quick decline of liquidity from 1997 to 1998 is reflected in almost all indicators calculated from either the Joint BIS/IMF/OECD/WB database or the Kazakhstan-specific database. Based on the joint BIS/IMF/OECD/WB database, Kazakhstan’s ratio of reserves to short-term external debt declined from 572 percent in 1997 to 280 percent in 1998 (Text Table 18). Based on the Kazakhstan-specific database, Kazakhstan’s ratio of reserves to short-term debt decreased continuously from 1996 to 1998 (Text Table23). By end-1998, Kazakhstan’s reserves covered only about 85 percent of short-term external debt. Therefore, the quick decline of liquidity, in particular the low reserves to short-term external debt ratio, might have signaled Kazakhstan’s vulnerability before the crisis.

104. In view of the external vulnerability indicators before early 1999, a few conclusions can be drawn. First, the indicators above did signal Kazakhstan’s intense balance of payments pressure and vulnerability to a crisis in early 1999. Second, the contagion effect of the Russian crisis, the loss of competitiveness and the negative terms of trade shocks all contributed to the intense balance of payments pressure in April 1999. Third, although Kazakhstan’s indebtedness was not high, it witnessed a rapid increase by end-1998. Last, the quick decline of Kazakhstan’s liquidity, exemplified by the result that Kazakhstan’s reserves to short-term debt ratio was less than 100 percent by end-1998 (calculated from the Kazakhstan-specific database), could have served as a leading indicator of Kazakhstan’s vulnerability.

C. Kazakhstan’s External Position After the 1999 Crisis

105. Kazakhstan’s external vulnerability has lessened considerably since late 1999, both in absolute terms and in cross-section comparison among the 16 selected countries. By end- 2000, Kazakhstan’s ranking among the selected economies increased to be well in the upper half (the top four) in terms of most external vulnerability indicators (Text Tables 9–19). With the rebound of world oil price and the sharp correction of the REER, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth, exports and current account surplus recovered strongly in 2000. At end-2000, indicators of Kazakhstan’s indebtedness were either close to or lower than the pre-crisis levels. Although Kazakhstan’s level of official reserves at end-2000 was not as high as that at end-1997, it covered about 139 percent of short-term external debt, indicating the strengthening of liquidity position (Text Table 23).

106. Strong GDP growth continued in 2001, thanks in part to strong development in the oil sector and favorable developments in Russia. But the recent decline of the world oil price and sluggishness in the world economy has adversely impacted Kazakhstan’s exports. The current account is expected to reverse sharply to a deficit of about 4 percent of GDP in 2001. Nevertheless, indicators of Kazakhstan’s external vulnerability have shown that overall Kazakhstan is in a much stronger position now to confront downturns in the world oil market than in 1998 (Text Table 23).

107. The improvement of Kazakhstan’s external position since late 1999 reflects the combination of a significantly more favorable external environment and prudent macroeconomic policy. The world oil price had risen sharply from $13/barrel in 1998. Economies of neighboring countries have strengthened considerably and resulted in stronger regional demand. Foreign direct investment (FDI) to Kazakhstan has rebounded from the low level in 1998. Net FDI to Kazakhstan is expected to reach $2.3 billion in 2001. On the domestic side, faced with larger oil revenues, the Kazakhstan government has been prudent to keep expenditure contained. The Kazahstan government recently established the National Fund for the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK) which has accumulated receipts about $1.3 billion (6.2 percent of GDP) as of end-November 2001. Kazakhstan’s stock of external debt has been stable and manageable. Kazakhstan’s net public external debt at end-2001 is expected to be close to zero, its lowest level ever. Official reserves in 2001 already exceed the pre-crisis level and provide about 3 months of import coverage.

D. External Vulnerability Outlook

108. While Kazakhstan’s external position looks robust at present, it remains potentially subject to various external shocks. With the rapid development of Kazakhstan’s oil sector, one major factor underlying Kazakhstan’s external vulnerability is the volatility of the world oil price. Empirical evidence has suggested that oil prices do not have well-defined time-invariant averages and consequently shocks are persistent. How to cope with terms of trade shocks and reduce Kazakhstan’s external vulnerability should be an essential part of its macroeconomic policy design.

109. The movement of the world oil price could affect Kazakhstan’s external position through the following channels. First, negative terms of trade shocks would directly affect the performance of Kazakhstan’s exports, current account and fiscal balance. The impact could get compounded given the fact that Russia, the largest trading partner of Kazakhstan, is also an oil-rich country. In the event of falling oil prices, market concerns over current account sustainability and liquidity (reserves) might give rise to exchange market pressures, as indicated by Kazakhstan’s experience in late 1998 to early 1999. A sensitivity study found that every $l/bbl decline in the world oil price (from $ 19/bbl to $18/bbl) would lead to an export revenue loss of $260 million (1.1 percent of GDP) in 2002 and $477 million (1.6 percent of GDP) in 2006. Second, negative terms of trade shocks might trigger a sharp contraction of Kazakhstan’s access to international capital markets.59 Third, positive terms of trade shock might place upward pressure on the price of the tenge, with effects on the nonoil tradable sector. This is the so-called “Dutch disease”.

110. Kazakhstan’s exposure to international capital market is currently limited. Loans from bilateral and multilateral official creditors are still a significant source of external financing. There have been 4 issues of public sector Eurobonds and 2 issues of private sector Eurobonds from 1995–2001. Most of the Eurobonds are actually held by the domestic pension funds. However, Kazakhstan has become more open to foreign capital/investment over the recent years and this trend is likely to continue in the future. The most important form of capital inflows to Kazakhstan has been foreign direct investment, in particular flows to oil sector. The annual average FDI inflows to Kazakhstan amounted to $1.3 billion from 1996 to 2000. At end-2000, foreign direct investors in Kazakhstan had accumulated about $6.8 billion of intra-company liabilities.60 Although all major international oil companies operating in Kazakhstan have announced continued high levels of capital investment, it is important to note that cash flows will be available for repatriation in the future. The allocation of cash flows between capital reinvestment within Kazakhstan on the one hand, and repatriation for redistribution within the international companies on the other hand, will in principle depend on the continued availability of attractive investment opportunities and on a stable regulatory environment.

111. The recent set-up of the National Fund for the Republic of Kazakhstan is a positive step towards coping with the volatility of oil prices. However, as the experiences of other commodity-producing countries show, stabilization funds cannot substitute for sound macroeconomic management. In the near future, some key policy measures, such as prudent fiscal policy and exchange rate flexibility should continue to be undertaken to minimize Kazakhstan’s vulnerability to external shocks.

E. Conclusions

Several major findings emerge from the assessment of Kazakhstan’s external vulnerability.

  • The balance of payments pressure in early 1999 highlighted Kazakhstan’s vulnerability to crises.
  • Various external vulnerability indicators, in particular the loss of competitiveness and quick decline of liquidity, had pointed to Kazakhstan’s intensified exchange market pressure before the crisis in early 1999.
  • Although Kazakhstan’s external position has recovered strongly from the 1998/99 crisis and looks robust at present, it remains subject to unforeseen factors, in particular the swing of world oil price. Accordingly, macroeconomic policy needs to adjust quickly in response to such shocks.
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table 1.Kazakhstan: Value Added in the Main Production Sectors, 1996-2000
19961997199819992000
(In millions of tenge)
Nominal GDP1,415,7501,672,1431,733,2642,016,4562,599,901
Industry299,958357,452422,521569,087864,727
Agriculture172,044190,738148,468199,354210,872
Construction62,30170,72385,57995,671134,575
Transport and communication159,704195,625239,386243,196298,515
Trade and catering244,417261,643262,654273,896323,467
Others 1/477,326595,962574,656635,252767,745
(In percent)
Real GDP growth0.51.7-1.92.79.8
Industry0.34.1-2.42.715.5
Agriculture-5.0-0.8-18.921.6-3.2
Construction-21.88.015.08.014.0
Transport and communication1.53.3-0.94.818.8
Trade and catering10.73.0-3.22.15.0
Others 1/-0.62.82.7-1.76.8
(In percent of GDP)
Share of GDP
Industry21.221.424.428.233.3
Agriculture12.211.48.69.98.1
Construction4.44.24.94.75.2
Transport and communication11.311.713.812.111.5
Trade and catering17.315.615.213.612.4
Others 1/33.735.633.231.529.5
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.

Mainly services.

Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.

Mainly services.

Table 2.Kazakhstan: Industrial Production, 1996-2001 1/
199619971998199920002001
HI
(In millions of Tenge)
Gross output748,428891,0281,082,5051,485,7192,311,5311,093,397
Mining342,067571,958963,612510,912
Output for electricity sector213,682417,426813,345475,104
Others128,385154,532150,26735,808
Manufacturing537,369717,0921,171,139491,188
Agricultural products170,751216,063250,207128,934
Textiles19,70834,12239,55014,239
Leather products and shoes1,6322,1603,9021,331
Wood products3,3575,2557,2382,160
Paper products8,7258,06418,3086,880
Processing of coke, oil, and nuclear products95,454106,561153,97358,270
Chemical products13,40615,61720,07813,258
Plastic and rubber products2,8345,2505,8612,503
Other non-metallic products13,80415,14118,7578,790
Metallurgy167,181261,774573,497215,862
Cars and machine-building21,22323,38135,97313,458
Electrical and electronic equipment7,3759,39217,48910,584
Transportation equipment7,63010,26214,2899,444
Other4,2894,05012,0175,475
Production and distribution of electrical power, gas, and water203,069196,669176,78091,297
(In percent of total)
Total
Mining31.638.541.746.7
Output for electricity sector19.728.135.243.5
Others11.910.46.53.3
Manufacturing49.648.350.744.9
Agricultural products15.814.510.811.8
Textiles1.82.31.71.3
Leather products and shoes0.20.10.20.1
Wood products0.30.40.30.2
Paper products0.80.50.80.6
Processing of coke, oil, and nuclear products8.87.26.75.3
Chemical products1.21.10.91.2
Plastic and rubber products0.30.40.30.2
Other non-metallic products1.31.00.80.8
Metallurgy15.417.624.819.7
Cars and machine-building2.01.61.61.2
Electrical and electronic equipment0.70.60.81
Transportation equipment0.70.70.60.9
Other0.40.30.50.5
Production and distribution of electrical power, gas, and water18.813.27.68.3
Sources: National statistical agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Starting in 1998 a new classification was introduced, comparable categories are not available for data prior to 1998.

Sources: National statistical agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Starting in 1998 a new classification was introduced, comparable categories are not available for data prior to 1998.

Table 3.Kazakhstan: Production of Selected Industrial Goods, 1996-2001
199619971998199920002001
HI
Production
Crude oil (in thousands of metric tons) 1/22,96025,77825,94530,13035,31729,376
Coal (in thousands of metric tons)76,83172,64769,77358,37874,87256,617
Natural gas (in millions of cubic meters) 2/6,5248,1147,9489,94611,5428,674
Iron ore (in thousands of metric tons)12,97513,1339,3369,61716,15711,492
Electricity (in millions of kwh)59,03852,00049,14547,49751,63539,445
Mineral fertilizers (in thousands of tons)1911512435721
Textiles
Cotton yarn (in thousands of tons)322211
Woven cotton fabrics (in millions of square meters)211410954
Paper (in metric tons)67154001
Tires (in thousands)10711673021160
Building materials (in thousands of tons) 3/1,1156576228381,1751,569
Cast iron (in thousands of tons)2,5363,0892,5943,4384,0102,954
Processed meat (in thousands of tons)173157104907710
Milk products (in thousands of tons)2502031119011036
(Percent changes compared to previous year)
Production Growth
Crude oil (in thousands of metric tons) 1/11.212.30.616.117.216.0
Coal (in thousands of metric tons)-7.8-5.4-4.0-16.328.311.1
Natural gas (in millions of cubic meters) 2/10.324.4-2.025.116.05.3
Iron ore (in thousands of metric tons)-12.91.2-28.93.068.0-4.5
Electricity (in millions of kwh)-11.4-11.9-5.5-3.48.77.6
Mineral fertilizers (in thousands of tons)-3.2-20.8-84.145.8-80.0320.0
Textiles
Cotton yarn (in thousands of tons)-25.0-33.30.00.0-50.00.0
Woven cotton fabrics (in millions of square meters)0.0-33.3-28.6-10.0-44.4-20.0
Paper (in metric tons)-61.5129.90.00.00.0
Tires (in thousands)28.9-99.516,600.080.8-61.6-100.0
Building materials (in thousands of tons) 3/-37.1-41.1-5.334.740.279.3
Cast iron (in thousands of tons)0.221.8-16.032.516.6-1.5
Processed meat (in thousands of tons)-36.6-9.2-33.8-13.5-14.40.0
Milk products (in thousands of tons)-10.4-18.8-45.3-18.922.224.1
Source: National Statistical Agency.

Includes gas condensates.

Consists of both gas from oil wells (gas-oil) and gas from gas wells

Including cement.

Source: National Statistical Agency.

Includes gas condensates.

Consists of both gas from oil wells (gas-oil) and gas from gas wells

Including cement.

Table 4.Kazakhstan: Production of Selected Agricultural Goods, 1996-2000
19961997199819992000
(In thousands of metric tons; unless otherwise indicated)
Production
Meat1,5411,3461,2131,1821,140
Milk3,6273,2203,3943,5353,730
Eggs (in millions)1,2631,2421,3881,5121,692
Wool4232252223
Cereals11,23712,2386,39614,26411,565
Of which:
Wheat7,6788,9554,74611,2429,073
Rice226255236199214
Barley2,6962,5831,0932,2651,664
Oats35928673194182
Soybean33444
Potatoes1,6571,4721,2631,6951,692
Tobacco229816
Vegetables7788801,0791,2871,544
(Percent change from previous year)
Growth of production
Meat-13.1-12.7-9.9-2.5-3.6
Milk-21.5-11.25.45.15.5
Eggs-31.4-1.611.88.411.9
Wool-27.6-23.2-22.8-10.84.5
Cereals18.28.9-47.7123.0-19.0
Of which:
Wheat18.316.6-47.0136.9-19.3
Rice23.312.7-7.5-15.67.5
Barley22.1-4.2-57.7107.2-26.6
Oats43.6-20.3-74.5166.0-6.2
Soybean-18.90.033.30.00.0
Potatoes-3.7-11.1-14.234.20.2
Tobacco0.017.6350.0-11.1102.0
Vegetables-0.213.122.619.319.9
(In percent of total production)
Share produced by private farms
Meat69.876.086.491.493.7
Milk78.187.192.294.895.0
Eggs45.847.245.547.649.8
Wool58.473.782.287.589.1
Potatoes87.588.891.594.995.8
Vegetables75.980.488.788.694.0
Source: National Statistical Agency.
Source: National Statistical Agency.
Table 5.Kazakhstan: Consumer Prices, 1998-2001
Jan.Feb.Mar.Apl.May.Jun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.
(In monthly percent change)
1998
Total1.81.10.70.50.3-0.8-0.2-1.0-0.1-0.70.00.3
Food2.71.31.20.10.6-1.4-1.8-1.9-0.5-1.1-0.20.6
Bread and cereals-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-1.0-0.5-0.8-0.60.0-0.2-1.1-0.7
Meat and poultry5.43.14.71.22.61.1-0.2-1.0-0.8-3.2-3.2-2.3
Fish1.51.40.2-0.3-1.4-1.3-0.6-0.60.20.10.11.1
Dairy products2.81.1-1.7-2.9-3.3-3.6-2.1-0.42.41.43.62.9
Eggs4.1-1.7-2.90.2-4.5-5.7-4.7-0.61.7-0.6-1.45.6
Oils and fats0.00.2-0.2-0.7-l.l-1.6-1.20.17.5-27-0.8-0.1
Fruits and Vegetables13.65.65.42.67.0-7.1-10.4-14.2-14.1-1.67.711.1
Sugar, coffee, Lea and condiments0.60.50.1-0.4-0.5-0.6-1.1-0.51.4-0.6-0.30.3
Beverages at home0.40.30.20.10.20.00.1-0.20.40.00.80.1
Food and beverages away from home0.50.20.91.30.20.50.2-0.11.70.00.50.1
Tobacco1.01.70.60.61.80.70.50.20.30.7020.1
Clothing and footwear0.20.20.30.20.20.00.00.10.30.30.30.2
Rent. water. and power1.41.50.01.00.00.04.50.30.3-0.90.30.2
Household goods0.10.00.00.4-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.6-0.10.0-0.1
Medical care0.1-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.3-0.50.00.0-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5
Transportation and communication1.40.8-0.11.4-0.1-OJ0.3-0.40.0-0.20.0-0.4
Recreation. education and culture0.30.30.20.50.30.00.70.21.00.40.00.0
Personal care0.9060.49.70.2-0.20.2-0.10.2-0.20.20.0
1999
Total0.9-0.2-0.24.61.44.81.1-0.30.70.71.71.7
Food1.0-0.3-0.35.71.76.60.6-1.20.30.62.12.7
Bread and cereals-0.3-0.41.23.11.116.79.20.70.4-3.1-2.5-1.2
Meat and poultry-0.7-1.9-1.11.62.62.11.61.01.62.31.45.3
Fish0.0-0.8-0.9-1.0-0.21.31.40.81.22.63.83.0
Dairy products1.4-0.4-1.7-1.6-3.0-1.6-0.90.43.04.56.64.7
Eggs5.9-1.105.a1.3-9.4-3.14.09.62.42.44.712.0
Oils and fats0.2-0.8-0.78.00.32.71.91.82.54.11.3-0.1
Fruits and Vegetables9.52.84.110.910.710.2-19.0-16.9-5.93.414.013.0
Sugar, coffee, tea and condiments0.4-0.2-0.311.70.44.80.6-1.2-0.80.5-0.3-0.1
Beverages al home0.1-0.1-0.14.60.00.60.30.00.20.57.81J
Food and beverages away from home0.10.30.27.52.03.42.10.70.80.50.50.4
Tobacco0.70.94.129.01.22.70.0-0.80.2-0.20.11.2
Clothing and footwear0.20.10.03.50.62.00.60.61.51.51.30.9
Rent. water. and power2.1-0.1-0.10.31.20.71.60.4-0.20.01.00.3
Household goods0.0-0.1-0.39.91.73.70.90.50.61.80.70.6
Medical care-0.1-1.2-0.96.4-0.20.90.40.20.61.10.70.5
Transportation and communication0.0-0.8-0.53.52.48.64.31.83.00.02.00.3
Recreation, education and culture0.31.20.46.60.72.81.10.91.81.20.70.7
Personal care0.10.30.411.72.53.11.70.60.61.41.00.7
2000
Total2.60.10.00.40.70.70.40.20.51.21.51.3
Food3.50.2-0.10.31.11.00.1000.21.62.12.0
Bread and cereals-0.5-0.8-0.60.41.62.40.70.0-0.3-0.70.90.3
Meat and poultry8.90.91.02.32.60.71.00.60.70.40.30.7
Fish2.31.6?0.7-1.30.8-0.10.10.71.2i.a2.12.7
Dairy products3.40.3-3.0-3.4-3.0-3.6-1.00.72.45.85.65.8
Eggs5.5-9.5-7.0-4.5-1.3-3.2-1.31.71.85.917.615.5
Oils and fats0.6-0.6-OS?2.2-1.3-1.4-1.0-0.20.51.51.31.0
Fruita and Vegetables13.55.13.42.43.0-0.3-2.8-4.7-2.84.45.97.7
Sugar, coffee, tea and condiments0.7-0.8-0.7-0.60.85.21.42.10.94.42.60.8
Beverages at home0.50.40.30.20.00.10.00.0-0.10.00.00.2
Food and beverages away from home2.10.70.71.20.90.40.30.20.40.51.30.7
Tobacco0.30.50.82.50.20.30.82.52.51.8\A0.6
Clothing and footwear0.60.40.30.40.50.40.60.40.51.01.00.7
Rent, water. and power3.5-0.60.10.10.10.10.20.21.71.10.70.2
Household goods0.40.1-0.3-0.10.50.30.20.20.20.20.50.6
Medical care0.70.50.90.70.20.40.30.10.20.10.40.2
Transportation and communication-O.i-0.1-0.91.40.60.72.51.10.20.70.90.3
Recreation, education and culture0.70.30.40.20.10.10.40.20.30.40.40.7
Personal care0.70.40.10.20.40.70.30.3020.80.40.2
2001
Total1.10.70.70.70.40.1-0.10.00.2
Food1.21.41.31.20.70.0-0.4-0.60.1
Bread and cereals0.00.53.20.90.10.40.2-0.2-0.1
Meat and poultry1.01.61.53.73.41.81.20.50.7
Fish1.71.61.21.1-0.70.81.11.51.5
Dairy products3.01.3-1.4-3.0-3.6-3.3-1.00.92.7
Eggs-1.8-10.2-5.50.2-3.9-2.6-0.20.24.6
Oil) and fals0.10.0-0.6-0.5-1.1-0.71.01.22.0
Fruits and Vegetables7.810.43.64.52.3-2.8-6.7-7.4-4.4
Sugar, coffee, tea and condiments0.50.10.4-0.30.80.90.60.00.1
Beverages al home0.00.40.1-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Food and beverages away from home0.91.10.81.00.50.80.30.50.3
Tobacco0.30.10.20.10.1-0.10.1-0.20.1
Clothing and footwear0.40.40.60.50.50.40.30.30.6
Rent, water. and power2.0-0.60.10.10.10.0-0.40.80.1
Household goods0.40.60.30.30.40.20.40.20.3
Medical care0.60.30.1-0.1-0.10.20.20.3-0.2
Transportation and communication0.0-0.6-0.6-0.3-0.30.31.01.00.5
Recreation. education and culture0.30.50.40.30.10.10.30.20.3
Personal care0.40.30.30.50.20.40.40.30.4
(Percentage change over previous year)
Memorandum items:
Total 199810.810.110.09.79.67.96.96.16.2-4.32.81.9
Total 19991.0-0.3-1.22.83.99.811.211.912.814.316.317.8
Total 200019.820.220.415.614.710.29.510.09.810.410.29.8
Total 20018.28.89.610.09.79.08.58.38.0
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.
Table 6.Kazakhstan: Wholesale Prices, 1999-2001
Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.May.Jun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.
(In monthly percent change)
1999
Total-1.0-1.3-0.17.37.97.63.14.03.98.33.33.9
Mining and extraction Industry-1.7-2.91.29.710.913.02.28.16913.54.15.4
Extraction of energy resources-2.0-2.91.611.811.514.92.19.48.615.84.96.9
Extraction of coal and Lignite0.85.4-1.30.111.4-0.10.02.3-0.92.10.00.1
Extraction of crude oil and natural gas-3.2-6.73.117.611.621.22.911.811.519.56.18.4
Extraction of crude oil-3.4-7.13.220.112.022.02.912.111.820.06.18.5
Extraction of natural gas0.70.51.0-25.82.21.24.7-0.41.82.28.45.3
Mining and extraction industry, other than the extraction of energy resources-0.6-3.00.12.28.65.42.62.5-0.72.0-0.5-3.7
Mining of metallic Ores-0.7-3.6-0.30.710.05.13.02.80.00.9-0.6-1.8
Other sectors of mining and extraction industry0.00.62.411.80.77.10.20.2-5.19.40.7-15.5
Processing industry-0.9-1.1-1.29.49.27.14.32.63.27.33.74.1
Processing of agricultural products-0.3-1.00.23.93.13.74.5-0.12.61.01.00.3
Food production-0.3-1.1-0.23.51.13.15.30.73.11.21.20.3
Textile and sewing industry-0.1-0.3-2.31.40.80.50.30.62.30.02.90.0
Shoe manufacturing0.00.00.00.00.00.02.53.10.60.70.70.5
Production of wood and wood production0.00.0-0.5-0.10.01.50.40.30.1-0.20.20.2
Production of paper and cardboard, priming industry-0.2-1.21.30.14.53.53.80.11.3-0.50.10.0
Coal production, oil refinery-0.70.1-9.59.43.30.97.110.312.929.012.7105
Chemical industry0.20.3-1.06.43.40.34.30.2-2.4-1.6-1.5-0.1
Manufacturing of rubber and plastic products0.00.00.00.50.10.20.00.00.10.10.00.0
Production of other nonmetalic mineral-based materials0.10.3-0.40.00.41.35.4-0.10.61.11.50.0
Metallurgical industry and metal working-1.9-2.31.316.018.113.04.12.31.35.21.83.7
Manufacturing of machinery and equipment0.30.90.64.3-0.11.40.0-0.20.10.20.50.4
Manufacturing of electrical and electronic equipment0.20.1-1.42.5-3.60.41.00.4-0.60.23.1-0.9
Production of transportation equipment0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Furniture production; other sectors of industry0.20.02.13.30.00.00.14.70.10.00.00.0
Production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water-0.10.20.30.00.90.61.30.3-0.10.10.10.0
2000
Total0.92.02.2-1.22.11.11.71.33.92.20.32.7
Mining and extraction industry1.75.55.8-2.8-9.011.23.81.110.04.82.35.1
Extraction of energy resources1.55.56.8-3.1-10.113.04.21.011.65.22.45.3
Extraction of coal and lignite0.4-0.3-1.2-0.9-0.60.91.4-1.0-2.11.30.00.9
Extraction of crude oil and natural gas1.76.27.8-3.4-11.114.84.81.212.95.62.65.7
Extraction of crude oil1.76.37.5-3.5-11.815.64.80.913.55.32.45.8
Extraction of natural gas0.45.023.9-16.4133.50.410.60.28.39.45.1
Mining and Extraction industry, other than the Extraction of energy resources2.65.5-0.1-1.0-1.70.60.82.0-0.62.01.63.6
Mining of metallic cores3.05.3-0.1-1.2-1.90.50.92.4-0.82.52.14.6
Other sectors of mining end extraction industry1.16.1-0.10.0-1.01.20.60.8-0.10.1-0.1-0.3
Processing industry1.00.40.5-0.61.7-0.80.83.01.10.70.31.6
Processing of agricultural products0.10.0-0.1-0.13.61.41.0-0.30.81.00.71.1
Food production-0.3-0.1-0.20.41.41.40.80.10.20.60.30.6
Textile and sewing industry0.50.20.20.20.80.30.10.70.40.00.51.0
Shoe manufacturing1.53.10.10.03.61.12.7-1.74.61.2-0.70.0
Production of wood and wood production1.20.0-0.10.20.90.00.00.0-0.40.70.00.1
Production of paper and cardboard, printing industry0.3-1.2-0.1-0.6-0.1-0.10.70.40.40.60.2-0.2
Coal production, oil refinery-1.8-6.2-2.90.02.30.11.720.83.05.15.64.6
Chemical industry3.11.4-0.91.93.70.4-0.7-2.40.20.70.7-0.7
Manufacturing of rubber and plastic products0.04.96.13.34.50.00.30.10.00.00.10.2
Production of other nonmetallic mineral-based materials-0.50.60.90.70.80.61.0-0.20.60.70.40.1
Metallargical industry and metal working2.32.41.8-1.40.9-2.50.71.70.9-0.6-2.41.5
Manufacturing of machinery end equipments:0.80.2-0.51.0-0.2-0.40.0-0.30.5-3.21.90.1
Manufacturing of electrical and electronic equipment-1.60.11.31.70.20.40.10.10.10.10.33.5
Production of transportation equipment0.10.00.1-1.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.10.0
Furniture production; other sectors of industry1.00.91.10.60.10.30.30.20.20.20.1-0.1
Production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water-0.50.20.00.40.00.00.30.10.31.30.10.0
2001
Total-8.52.01.3-3.70.01.1-0.32.00.5
Mining and extraction industry-18.05.43.0-1.82.41.3-1.9-2.81.9
Extraction of energy resources-19.45.93.0-7.82.53.9-2.1-3.13.0
Extraction of coal and lignite1.11.74.20.13.90.2-3.91.76.1
Extraction of crude oil and natural gas-20.26.03.4-8.92.54.1-2.1-3.31.3
Extraction of crude oil-20.76.83.4-9.32.94.0-2.4-3.61.7
Extraction of natural gas-0.15.14.41.4-0.60.10.30.5-3.1
Mining and extraction industry, other then the extraction of energy resources-2.31.2-0.9-0.50.50.20.50.30.1
Mining of metallic ores-3.11.9-1.20.80.0-0.10.70.3-0.1
Other sectors of mining and extraction industry0.8-1.20.30.82.51.20.10.10.8
Processing industry-1.2-0.30.0-2.0-2.0-0.70.4-1.9-0.6
Processing of agricultural products0.40.81.10.30.51.00.5-1.0-1.2
Food production0.40.81.10.30.41.10.3-0.1-0.3
Textile and sewing industry0.30.20.20.20.00.40.30.00.2
Shoe manufacturing-0.11.22.00.30.30.01.90.60.0
Production of wood and wood production1.11.10.11.91.60.40.41.50.2
Production of paper and cardboard, printing industry0.5-0.80.50.50.60.7-0.20.1-0.3
Coal production, oil refinery-1.8-3.6-4.3-4.5-2.50.28.10.21.1
Chemical industry0.6-0.81.22.0-0.8-1.21.31.51.2
Manufacturing of rubber and plastic products0.10.30.10.10.11.30.40.10.2
Production of other nonmetalic mineral-based materials0.91.50.40.3-0.51.3-0.31.31.4
Metallurgical industry and metal working-1.90.10.6-0.9-3.2-1.7-1.74.01.4
Manufacturing of machinery and equipment-0.10.60.7-0.83.90.41.30.1-0.3
Manufacturing of electrical and electronic equipment0.51.00.60.91.1-2.0-0.62.0-1.4
Production of transporation equipments0.40.04.52.80.30.01.61.0-0.1
Furniture production; other sectors of industry1.10.73.50.0-0.30.70.80.00.2
Production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water1.0-0.10.00.60.00.02.70.00.1
Memorandum items:
Total 19986.36.04.94.63.72.3-0.1-1.0-2.2-3.6-4.6-5.5
Total 1999-6.5-8.5-8.4-1.37.216.420.926.932.844.551.257.2
Total 200060.265.569.356.041.435.533.731.03l.123.720.919.4
Total 20018.38.31.34.66.94.92.8-1.1-4.3
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.
Sources: National Statistical Agency, and Fund staff estimates.
Table 7.Kazakastan: Energy Prices, 1996 2001 1/(monthly price, in tenge)
Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.May.Jun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.
1996
Crude oil (mt)3,4303,5423,5953,6613,6653,6493,6503,6513,6553,6593,6653,676
Natural gas (1000m3)547551551551551551551549549549529546
Electricity (1000kwh)1,5111,5591,5671,3871,6241,8401,9292,0462,0462,1752,1802,180
Coal (mt)798771771759762765775775777776781781
Gasuline (mt)9,5309,5309,53010,31210,41210,31210,1619,9299,9299,9439,9439,943
Diesel (mt)7,0567,0567,0567,4257,4257,4257,2647,4647,2647,2987,4987,298
Mazuth (mt)3,5063,4383,4383,1283,1283,1283,1283,1283,1283,3253,4253,490
Heating (Goal)7447487547658388438378428439681,0031,010
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)3,1293,1293,1293,3453,3453,3453,4453,3453,3453,3453,3453,345
1997
Crude oil3,9114,0164,0994,1274,1274,1284,1284,1284,1284,1564,1564442
Natural gas547547548548563563563563563563594594
Electricity2,5892,6642,7262,7252,7382,7402,9882,9993,0212,9992,9703,093
Coal559575577582579581580580580576577577
Gasoline11,59811,81411,84811,84911,94813,16213,16613,18913,17713,25913,25413,263
Diesel8,7078,7298,7258,8558,9869,4489,5809,5849,5829,4819,5809,481
Mazuth4,2924,3154,2953,6393,3933,4173,2813,2823,4183,7093,7043,423
Hearing (Goal)1,1171,0971,0971,1311,0941,0941,0921.41801,0821,2381,4351,452
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)3,8643,8713,8694,2494,2514,4674,2684,4704,2704,4704,2704,470
1998
Crude oil4,4794,4984,4814,4594,2964,2114,3144,0453,6883,6273,4633,470
Natural gas778778778778782782784787793799803807
Electricity2,6402,6402,6402,5802,5802,5801,5902,4902,4802,5401,5502,450
Coal735836724725725725721723737737748752
Gasoline14,79014,76714,76914,86714,90414,44113,09712,95113,13713,16213,42412,887
Diesel10,0009,9979,99810,42410,3089,9359,9689,3849,5429,4559,1499,461
Mazuth4,9644,9644,5543,9503,9543,7473,4583,4683,4103,7143,4353,449
Heating (Goal)1,1851,1861,1861,1701,1681,1681,1281,1281,1201,1081,0951,095
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)4,8654,8654,8674,8724,8755,1595,3965,4615,3805,6295,7425,422
1999
Crude oil3,7563,4383,6974,7705,6297,0207,6918,84510,16312,40913,29014,553
Natural gas818821828649656660677676683691726751
Electricity2,3802,3802,4902,4902,4002,4102,4302,4301,4302,4402,4401,440
Coal468489484485518517516530518312512514
Gasoline12,58412,64810,00012,22112,84012,84016,60219,09822,94927,48529,48331,186
Diesel93989,4928,93210,04910,31010,5169,94811,08911,92114,63916,29320,497
Mazuth5,0863,0953,0803,1823,4353,4352,9843,2934,1026,4547,5127,579
Heating (Goal)1,1381,1381,1391,1341,1381,1421,1601,1631,1631,1611,1591,159
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)4,1173,5923,4943,3913,9454,5023,9283,1343,4353,4094,6884,796
2000
Crude oil14,86215,26816,32715,72913,64215,94116,76316,55218,77819,71520,28920,401
Natural gas620653799646667698701777779835909957
Electricity2,4602,4002,4001,4102,4102,4101,4101,4102,4001,4101,4102,410
Coal579576563552550542537535526525525516
Gasoline30,64326,90024,45124,42926,40526,42226,40332,41431,42731,79033,79034,505
Diesel19,71618,47318,68318,62119,49019,60120,44424,67126,84628,47630,05731,767
Mazuth7,9787,8437,9147,9137,0677,0717.41739,4999,79010,44110,59711,109
Heating (Goal)1,2341,2351,2341,2361,4361,7361,4381,4381,4381,2721,2711,471
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)7,1997,7697,4047,2947,2247,4307,4369,07510,91910,91811,16312,415
2001
Crude oil15,17916,15016,72715,17115,60316,22115,79515,42915,501
Natural gas1,1111,1571,2001,2141,4081,4071,2071,4131,412
Electricity2,6302,6302,6302,6402,6402,6402,6402,6402,640
Coal425440460458475477456464496
Gasolaie35,40033,78231,41927,75529,51530,50833,74233,83734,915
Diesel32,05731,08030,31329,12424,94623,36326,27626,33326,494
Mazuth9,8908,6347,6747,6717,1467,1868,7548,7768,882
Heating (Goal)1,4231,4231,4231,4211,4211,4211,4271,4271,427
Liquid petroleum gas (ton)13,30113,31912,12112,12912,17513,42515,17615,22215,279
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimate

Producers ex-factory prices. Average prices for all customcia.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimate

Producers ex-factory prices. Average prices for all customcia.

Table 8.Kazakhstan: Employment, 1996-2001 1/
199619971998199920002001
HI
(In thousands)
Total4,3803,6293,0712,4892,4742,521
Agriculture and forestry494270232237
Fishing5655
Total industry756668654667
Of which:
Mining120126131136
Manufacturing492406391403
Electricity, gas and water: production and distribution145137132128
Construction133103105113
Trade, car repair, and household goods79494342
Hotels and restaurants24181811
Transports and communication333245245227
Financial sector36293232
Real estate136100109124
State sector177182186201
Education510497521540
Health and social services313263252257
Other local, social, and personal services74607166
Share of employment
Total100.0100.010O.0100.0
Agriculture and forestry16.111.89.49.4
Fishing0.20.30.20.2
Total industry24.624.826.426.5
Of which:
Mining3.95.05.35.4
Manufacturing16.015.015.816.0
Electricity, gas and water production and distribution4.74.85.35.1
Construction4.34.04.34.5
Trade, car repair, and household goods2.62.01.71.7
Hotels and restaurants0.80.40.70.4
Transports and communication10.89.69.99.0
Financial sector1.21.41.31.3
Real estate4.44.54.44.9
State sector5.86.77.58.0
Education16.621.821.121.4
Health and social services10.210.610.210.2
Other municipal, social, and personal services2.42.22.92.6
Source: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Starting in 1998 a new classification was introduced, comparable categories are not available for data prior to 1998.

Source: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Starting in 1998 a new classification was introduced, comparable categories are not available for data prior to 1998.

Table 9.Kazakhstan: Labor Market, 1997-2001
19971998199920002001
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
Operation of Employment Offices
Number of joh placement inquiries (thousands)50.546.644.137.346.344.542.845.535.726.128.430.641.230.425.225.930.230.125.724.9
Number of people placed in jobs (thousands)6.48.38.68.67.39.49.39.16.54.65.67.67.311.812.011.48.914.113.411.3
Number of vacancies (Thousands)8.69.812.99.68.511.212.59.96.67.08.27.88.711.012.510.78.712.913.611.5
Number of registered unemployed (thousands)293.1277.7268.7263.5262.0272.4264.8254.5245.1237.1239.5248.6286.6278.5256.5238.6242.3234.5222.8216.1
percent of economically active population)4.34.14.03.93.93.93.93.83.83.73.83.94.54.34.03.83.43.32.92.8
Total unemployment (thousands) 1/967.8925.0950.0950.0908.0890.2877.5902.4746.4715.1757.7
(percent of economically active population)13.013.113.513.713.012.412.212.79.89.210.2
Sources: National Statistics Agency and Ministry of Labor.

Includes estimates for Ihe unregistered unemployed. Only annual numbers are available for 1997-1999.

Sources: National Statistics Agency and Ministry of Labor.

Includes estimates for Ihe unregistered unemployed. Only annual numbers are available for 1997-1999.

Table 10.Kazakhstan: Nominal and Real Wages, 1996-2001(In tenge per month, unless otherwise indicated)
Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.May.Jun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.
1996
Minimum wage1,1001,1001,1001,4001,4001,4001,7001,7001,7002,0002,0002,000
Average wage1/5,6345,7136,2186,5186,4526,7687,0637,1057,3497,5877,4237,674
Minimum real wage 2/174170167207203198236234232265258256
Average real wage 2/878692949193969698989496
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)8787959997101105105107108104105
1997
Minimum wage2,0302,0302,0302,0602,0602,0802,0852,0852,0852,3402,3402,340
Average wage 1/7,5067,4728,2017,9938,3138,7428,8828,6219,0549,2859,0359,205
Minimum real wage 2/255251249250249250249249250277273269
Average real wage 2/9290989598103103101106107103104
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)10299109106110116118114120123120121
1998
Minimum wage2,3602,3602,3602,3802,3802,3802,4002,4002,4002,4402,4402,440
Average wage 1/9,0169,0059,7229,4859,6609,9199,8589,6569,9349,9869,81111,192
Minimum real wage 2/267264262263262264269269272277279279
Average real wage 2/8499107971021041009910310198114
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)119118127124126129128124125123119134
1999
Minimum wage2,4402,4402,4402,6502,6502,6502,6502,6502,6502,6802,6802,680
Average wage 1/10,52010,5209,51310,5209,66010,4539,8589,65611,3089,9869,81112,607
Minimum real wage 2/279276277301288284280267264268266265
Average real wage 2/117116105117103110102951109895t122
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)1241231091048081757383717191
2000
Minimum wage2,6802,6802,6802,6802,6802,6802,6802,6802,6802,6802,6802,680
Average wage 1/11,79612,03913,22313,24013,30013,98714,04014,06814,19914,54314,37816,886
Minimum real wage 2/26025625624924924924824610010197116
Average real wage 2/8410211010010010510010010010197116
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)8536949494989899100102100117
2001
Minimum wage3,4843,4843,4843,4843,4843,4843,4843,484
Average wage 1/15,16915,51616,17016,28616,88117,28817,79117,726
Minimum real wage 2/88.8101.6103.5100.0103.2102.3103.099.6
Average real wage 2/
Average wage (in U.S. dollars)104.6106.8111.2111.9115.7118.1121.3120.5
Sources: National Statistical Agency, Ministry of Labor; and Fund staff estimates.

For December, excludes estimated bonus.

21 December 1993 = 100.

Sources: National Statistical Agency, Ministry of Labor; and Fund staff estimates.

For December, excludes estimated bonus.

21 December 1993 = 100.

Table 11.Kazakhstan: Wages by Sector, 1996-2001 1/2/(In tenge)
199619971998199920002001
HI
Total Average6,8418,5419,68310,98414,37416,621
Agriculture and forestry3,8964,1805,6575,927
Fishing4,7985,4046,8127,086
Total industry13,46515,90820,64723,165
Of which:
Mining20,31723,56932,05935,742
Manufacturing11,35713,43417,71719,842
Electricity, gas and water: production and distribution14,19715,0651,7291,951
Construction12,37514,46221,0172,504
Trade, car repair, and household goods8,2399,80112,96114,326
Hotels and restaurants8,66016,30915,97920,686
Transports and communications11,92913,68718,78823,125
Financial sector19,32426,1953,61440,205
Real estate10,33411,11716,67220,617
State sector10,31010,62911,75814,065
Education7,2477,5948,5129,752
Health and social services6,4546,3317,267811
Other municipal, social, and personal services7,9079,67712,85715,586
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Data are not comparable with monthly wages in Table 11.

Starting in 1998 a new classification was introduced, comparable categories are not available for data prior to 1998.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Data are not comparable with monthly wages in Table 11.

Starting in 1998 a new classification was introduced, comparable categories are not available for data prior to 1998.

Table 12.Kazakhstan: Investment in Constant Prices 1/, 1996-2000(1991 = 100)
1996 2/1997199819992000
TotalStateTotalStateTotalStateTotalStateTotalState
Total investment9.44.310.63.215.04.2202.829.84.6
Productive investment10.64.511.62.614.015.126.60.343.91.5
Industry17.54.921.52.031.41.348.90.579.10.8
Agriculture0.90.30.50.20.20.10.60.11.90.1
Transport and communication26.124.220.918.731.523.334.818.365.711.9
Construction2.61.61.80.713.212.025.4136.36.6
Trade and catering4.11.04.90.621.91.682.12.973.62.6
Other35.74.617.82.2
Non-productive investment6.73.98.54.825.820.320.86.722.49.9
Housing5.22.25.93.46.43.710.31.616.98.3
Other9.67.013.67.2
Memorandum item:
Index of houses constructed
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Prices deflated by sectoral price indices calculated by the National Statistical Agency.

Adjusted for underreporting.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Prices deflated by sectoral price indices calculated by the National Statistical Agency.

Adjusted for underreporting.

Table 13.Kazakhstan: Financing of Investment, 1996-2000
19961997199819992000
All resources118,981139,790264204369084595664
State enterprises48,99738,383655346060767293
Budget resources8,3358,895269682406839253
Own resources40,66229,488139052223125428
Other 1/69,984101,407198670308477528371
State enterprises41.227.524.816.411.3
Budget resources7.06.410.26.56.6
Own resources34.221.15.364.3
other 1/58.872.575.283.688.7
Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes mainly private sector investment.

Sources: National Statistical Agency; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes mainly private sector investment.

Table 14.Kazakhstan: Sectoral Composition of Capital Investment in Current Prices, 1998-2000 1/(In percent of total investment)
199819992000
Total100.0100.0100.0
Agriculture, hunting, and forestry0.40.71.4
Mining industry41.742.049.8
Manufacturing industry15.512.212.0
Production and distribution of electric power, gas and water6.05.32.9
Construction323.73.6
Trade, car repair, household goods2.55.83.5
Hotels and restaurants1.51.30.5
Transports and communication11.37.59.5
Financial sector0.61.81.6
Real estate9.38.89.7
State sector3.67.53.2
Education0.40.30.7
Health and social sectors2.00.90.2
Other municipal, social and personal services2.02.21.3
Source: National Statistical Agency.

From 1998 on new OECD data classification.

Source: National Statistical Agency.

From 1998 on new OECD data classification.

Table 15.Kazakhstan: Savings Investment Balance, 1997-2000
199719981999
(In percent of GDP)
Consumption82.982.680.9
Net Export-2.5-4.83.2
Investment:15.617.315.9
Public Investment2.72.51.9
Private Investment13.614.814.0
Change in Stocks-0.70.10.0
Total Savings:15.617.315.9
Domestic Savings15.611.717.0
Public Savings-3.5-5.8-3.0
Private Savings19.117.520.0
Foreign Savings3.65.6-1.1
Statistical Discrepancy4.04.90.0
Source: Kazakhstan authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Source: Kazakhstan authorities; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 16.Kazakhstan: Privatization of State Enterprises, 1996-2000(Units)
19961997199819992000
Small-scale privatization3,3935,5902,5352,1871642
Mass privatization4971,12251613179
Privatization in agriculture13818900
Case-by-case privatization28471303
Total4,0566,7773,0732,3181724
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and National Statistical Agency.
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and National Statistical Agency.
Table 17.Kazakhstan: Privatized Enterprises by Sectors, 1996-2001
199619971998199920002001
Sept.
(Units)
Industry437608152262633
Construction45162501656
Agriculture138189400
Transport101331731475033
Trade and catering1,5191,2792871416935
Personal and public services280689169745434
Other sectors1,5363,4642,2671,855147a1172
Of which
Incompleted units3122666555055
Total4,0566,7773,0732,31817241368
(In percent of total)
Industry10.89.04.91.11.52.4
Construction1.12.41.60.70.30.4
Agriculture3.40.30.30.20.00.0
Transport2.54.92.46.32.92.4
Trade and catering37.518.99.36.142.6
Persona] and public services6.910.25.53.23.12.5
Other sectors37.951.073.980.085.385.7
Of which
Incompleted units0.83.32.12.42.94.0
Total100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and National Statistical Agency.
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and National Statistical Agency.
Table 18.Kazakhstan: Summary Accounts of National Bank of Kazakhstan, 1998-2001
1998199920002001
DecMarJuneSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepOct
(In millions of tenge at current exchange rate; end period stocks)
Net Foreign Assets109,96187,953122,423158,659212,925207,787273,264312,598302,540452,900476,735537,482563,214
Net international reserves109,96187,953122,423158,659212,925207,787272,264312,598102,540356,903336,594362,861385,535
Foreign exchange (net)67,75946,19460,49387,844140,677137,302197,519240,603230,068287,667263,697283,570309,031
Asset122,15998,056133,878158,913204,597193,060197,778240,603230,377287,737263,789283,682309,195
Short-term liabilities54,60151,86273,38571,09063,91977,75825903107092111164
Gold42,20241,75961,93070,81572,24870,48574,74571,99572,47369,23772,89779,29176,504
National Fund 1/95,997140,141174,621177,679
Net Domestic Assets-28.487-22,626-47,530-71,759-85,069-105,620-151,762-174.758-167,874-321,515-332,926-178,441-405,363
Domestic credit23,84838,70255,03549,37924,9854,016-37,329-64,790-48,424-219.039-227,229-255,585-385,824
Credit to Government (net)26,96337,97031,66134,83914,858-5,335-43,144-59,696-14,128-94.092-73.047-76,613-94,518
National Fund 1/-95,997-142,692-174.621-180.434
Credit to banks (net)-9,9633,41312,1982,659-1,572-2.636-6.073-17,052-46,405-29,591-12,104-4,951-11,428
Credit2,0847,01412,2918,3954,6343,4542,4682,8412,7742,9832,8582,3162,322
Special deposits (NBK notes and repos)12,0463,601935,7356,2065,0808,54119,39449,18032,57414,9627,26613,751
Credit to nonbank financial institutions6,6257,09911,00611,69911,51311,77411,79111,75511,903398388368348
Credit to the economy223220190181186203197202204242227231229
Other items (net)-52,335-61,326-102,585-121,138-110,055-109,636-114,533-109,967-119,450-102,476-105,697-122,856-119,537
Reserve Money81,47365,32874,89486,899127,856102,167130,502137,840134,666131,385143,809159,040157,852
Currency outside NBK72,98258,61264,88675,857110,40792,410102,175113,587116,335110,797119,287133,949133,895
Commercial bank deposits7,9496,1649,2328,21514,9508,16815,92730,37814,03518,95622,33922,74619,363
Reserves232612325116814133684749381011
Correspondent accounts4,5523,0896,9296,82013,2655,8089,12315,93511,70415,48517,87016,32414,712
Other deposits3,3743,0492,1791,1441,5172,2206,7214,3252,2833,4214,4316,4114,639
Demand, time and enterprise deposits5445517762,8372,5001,5892,4003,8754,2971,6322,1833,3464,595
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
NBK net international reserves1,3121,0059351,1331,5411,4651,9092,1902,0942,4542,2982,4572,603
NBK. gross reserves1,9641,5981,4951,6412,0031,8731,9112,1902,0962,4542,2982,4583,604
Foreign exchange (excluding CIS currencies)1,4601,1211,0221,1351,4801,3761,3871,6851,5941,9781,8011,9212,088
Gold504477473506523497524504502476498537517
Memorandum items:
Change end end of previous quarter (millions of tenge)
Net international reserves12,353-22,00834,47036,23654,266-5,13864,47740,334-10,05854,363-20,30926,26723,675
Credit to government (net)-3,2771,0073,6913,179-19,981-20,193-37,809-16,55245,568-79,96421,045-3,565-17,906
Credit to banks-15,94613,3768,785-9,539-4,231-1,054-3,447-10,979-29,35316,81517,4877,153-6.478
Change from end of previous year (millions of tenge)
Net international reserves43,352-22.00812,46248,698102,964-5,13859,33999,67389,61554,36334,05460,320829.95
Reserve money (millions of tenge)
Percentage change from end of previous quarter-0.9-19.814.616.047.1-20.117.914.4-2.3-2.49.510.6-0.7
Percentage change from end of previous year-23.8-19.8-8.16756.9-20.1-5.87.85.3-2.46.818.117.2
Sources: Kazakhstani authorities.

The difference in the National Fund entries under Net Foreign Assets (NFA) and Net Domestic Assets reflects trasitory amounts in Tenge, which are not included in the NFA entry.

Sources: Kazakhstani authorities.

The difference in the National Fund entries under Net Foreign Assets (NFA) and Net Domestic Assets reflects trasitory amounts in Tenge, which are not included in the NFA entry.

Table 19.Kazakhstan: Monetary Survey, 1999-2001
1998199920002001
DecemberMarchJuneSeptemberDecemberMarchJuneSeptemberDecemberMarchJuneSeptemberOctober
(In millions of tenge at current exchange rate; end period stocks)
Net Foreign Assets104,18183,991151,625197,024257,716242,087314,634343,944328,064480,989479,132559,825560,348
Net International Reserves104,18183,991151,625197,024257,716242,037314,634343,944328,064384,992339,069385,204382,669
Foreign exchange61,97942,23189,695126,208185,468171,603239,889271,949255,591315,755266,172305,913306,165
Assets138,288113,651171,554206,442262,765241,152252,005285,873279,660335,894326,944364,637170,723
Liabilities, short-term76,30971,42081,85980,23377,29669,55012,11613,92524,06820,13860,77258,72464,559
Gold42,20241,75961,93070,81572,24870,48574,74571,99572,47369,23772,89779,29176,504
National Fund95,997140,064174,621177,679
Net domestic assets44,36844,0599,87422514,65718,2523,65015,81571,404-62.256-11,053-26.1102-36.670
Domestic credit146,448142,592191,828209,314204,693211,339218,211236,102342,128200,680250,107282,208238,018
Net credit to government36,51128,07244,37745,30637,83732,69010,456-5,36840,560-32,354-11.821.10,367-21,236
Deposits of National Fond-95.997-140,064-174,621-177,679
Net credit to the economy109,937114,520147,451164,008166,856178,649207,755241,470301,568329,031401,991467,197486,932
Other terms (net)-102,080-911,533-181,954-209,089-190.036-193,087-2I4.561-220,287-270,723-262.936-261.I60-308.210-324.688
Broad money148,549128,049161,499197,249272,373360,340318,284359,759399,468418,733468,080513,824523,677
Currency in circulation68,72855,42461,41570,804103,49286,98196,126106,105106,425101,993110,538124,234123,057
Deposits79,82272,626100,084126,445168,881173,359222,158253,654191,044316,740357,541409,590400,621
Nonbank institutions49,42042,72063,18885,227115,871113,907154,726115,871204,771216,187224,916241,268229,490
Tenge20,43623,80430,95544,85400,36364,93371,11896,791110,811117,735135,297130,074127,013
Convertible foreign exchange19,410I8,67431,63139,55353,85847,90382,34580,13191,93496,74787,991110,054101,421
Nonconvertible foreign exchange5742426028201,6511,0711,2631,4572,0251,6551,6281,1411,056
Households30,40129,90536,89741,21853,01059,45367,43275,27588,273100,553112,625168,321171,131)
Tenge20,92018,35419,05520,56728,26824,22826,20328,56232,81535,89942,51644,38544,622
Convertible foreign exchange9,47611,54417,83520,64724,73335,19641,20146,67255,41564,60890,079123,896126,444
Nonconvertibie foreign exchange576592829414346304065
(In millions of U.S dollars)
Banking sysiem net foreign asets1,243.2959.91,157.41,407.31,864.81,707.22,20642,409.42,270.33,3116.93,460.23,790.33,887.2
Foreign exchange739.6482.6684.7901.51,342.01,210.21,683.31,905.11,768.81170.92,006.52,071.23,170.9
Gold5113.6477.3472.7505.8522.8497.1524.2504.3501.5476.0497.6536.81,516.6
National Fund660.0956.11,182.31,199.7
Memorandum items:(In millions of tenge at current exchange rate)
Change from end of previous quarter
Net international reserves-35,539.1-20,190.367,634.445,398.760,692.4-15,628.672,546.829,309.6-15,879.956,928.1-15,923.646,135.8-2,535.3
Credit to government (net)8,280.2-8,439.316,305.5928.6-7,468.7-5,147.0-22,234.3-15,524.445,927.9-72.9131.20,533.41,453.4-l0.868.6
Credit to economy32,483.04,583.132,930.616,557.22,347.711,793.029,106.333,715.360,097.827,462.972,960.365,205.419,715.2
Change from end of previous year
Net foreign assets of banking system-35,539.1-20,190.347,444.192,842.8153,535.2-15,628.616,118.286,227.870,347.9152,925.1151,068.2231,761.3132,283/.
NBK Net International Reserves-21,343.0-12,007.812,462.348,697.8101,889.2-5,063.159,413.899,672.889,615.354,362.934,053.660,312.182,969.7
Commercial banks-14,194.11,117.534,981.944,145.150,646.0-10,565.5-2,495.6-13,445.1-19,267.42,563.2-23,049.0-3,171.8-28,364.7
National Fund95,997140,064174,621177,679
Broad money
Percentage change from end of previous quarter0.0-13.826.122.138.1-4.432.313.011.04811.814.0-1.9
Percentage change from end of previous year-13.1-13.88.732.883.4-4.416932.14674.817.233.631.1
Sources Kazakhstan authorities, and Fund staff estimates
Sources Kazakhstan authorities, and Fund staff estimates
Table 20.Kazakhstan: Interest Rates, 1998-2001(In percent; end-of-period)
Inflation Year-on-yearNBK. refinance rateYield on 3-month Treasury billsCommercial bank short-term lending rates 1/2/Commercial bank time deposit rates 1/2/
HouseholdsLegal entries
1998
January10.818.516.821.59.89.2
February10.118.516.822.29.810.1
March10.018.518.222.58.88.0
April9.718.517.523.213.47.7
May9.618.515.921.211.45.8
June7.918.518.121.811.77.0
July5.918.518.521.711.49.8
August6.120.520.323.513.910.9
September6.220.521.519.814.310.0
October4.320.521.821.215.611.6
November2.825.024.519.714.118.5
December1.925.025.818.414.58.5
1999
January1.025.026.318.317.210.7
February-0.325.026.319.817.413.8
March-1.225.026.322.518.815.2
April2.825.024.713.312.0
May3.925.024.213.19.1
June9.825.025.114.19.2
July11.222.021.625.616.28.1
August11.920.021.624.916.55.6
September12.820.026.725.68.7
October14.320.028.118.79.4
November16.318.016.623.320.27.9
December17.818.016.621.413.47.9
2000
January19.818.016.719.716.69.4
February20.218.016.421.916.710.1
March20.418.016.022.310.56.7
April15.618.015.622.017.66.4
May14.716.014.620.720.07.5
June10.214.013.120.316.57.8
July9.514.012.620.218.64.1
August10.014.09.919.418.04.4
September9.814.09.520.218.25.0
October10.414.07.620.515.56.2
November10.214.07.518.215.96.4
December9.814.06.819.915.66.1
2001
January8.214.06.718.816.43.7
February8.812.56.618.614.77.6
March9.612.55.620.215.77.7
April9.212.55.419.814.66.5
May9.312.55.220.214.76.2
June9.212.05.018.113.96.1
July9.112.04.917.014.44.5
August9.012.04.818.214.45.8
September8.911.05.118.813.75.7
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan,

Credits and deposits in tenge.

Rates on existing stocks of credits and deposits through December 1996, rates on new credits and deposits thereafter

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan,

Credits and deposits in tenge.

Rates on existing stocks of credits and deposits through December 1996, rates on new credits and deposits thereafter

Table 21.Kazakhstan: Interbank Currency Exchange (KICEX) Auction Rates, 1997-2001
Tenge par U.S. dollarTenge per deutsche markTenge per 1.000 Russian ruble
Period averageEnd-of-periodPeriod averageEnd-of-periodPeriod average 1/End-of-period 1/
1997
January75.4475.7947.1946.69
February75.6775.6245.5445.06
March75.1974.3544.6944.48
April75.0375.4944.2244.07
May75.5075.4844.6944.75
June75.4975.5743.8943.61
July75.5975.7442.6041.12
August75.7975.3041.3142.50
September75.7775.7342.3442.86
October75.6975.8043.1744.34
November75.7575.8044.2943.43
December75.8275.8942.9944.20
1998
January76.32764042.4943.31
February76.4076.38424342.40
March76.5176.6142.0841.86
April76.6076.6742.6242.90
May76.8276.8643.4543.20
June77.0177.2043.1842.80
July77.3777.6043.0043.00
August78.4378.8843.7943.90
September79.6880.63
October81.5281.9050.2251.00
November82.6183.0049.3649.36
December83.6884.0050.2050.20
1999
January84.5785.12
February85.7186.45
March87.4288.10
April113.80114.8062.1662.10
May119.14129.0367.4469.31
June.131.83132.3170.0870.30
July132.45131.9169.9672.40
August131.81132.2671.6171.08
September135.78140.1173.1676.40
October141.21140.2277.4375.65
November139.16137.9073.6471.41
December138.19138.2571.7771.50
2000
January139.06139.3872.1570.78
February139.90140.4470.7771.20
March141.42141.9570.2470.30
April142.21142.0169.4766.78
May142.29142.3066.6365.90
June142.65142.8668.7068.70
July142.79142.7169.3269.50
August142.60142.5265.9265.75
September142.69142.5863.2862.44
October142.57142.5863.8162.50
November144.01144.15
December144.98145.4065.4065.30
2001
January145.38145.11
February145.33145.285.075.07
March145.48145.4268.2568.255.085.06
April145.54145.775.045.05
May146.13146.4765.8665.865.055.03
June146.59146.805.045.04
July146.76147.075.025.02
August147.17147.305.035.07
September147.70147.805.015.02
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.

Auctions for Russian rubles cased of be held from July 1996.

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.

Auctions for Russian rubles cased of be held from July 1996.

Table 22.Kazakhstan: Number of Commercial Banks and Branches. 1996-2001(End-of-period)
Commercial banksBranches
StateInterstateWith Foreign CapitalOtherTotalTotal
Totalof which: subsidiaries
1996
March511251111291,013
June41126961131,006
September417690102990
December419587101949
1997
January19586101944
February619584100932
March61958197785
April61958197779
May51951096784
June611957094784
July611937291734
August611967298641
September611966490638
October612176190599
November612176290599
December612275387583
1998
January512075076527
February512075076527
March512174976527
April412175076516
May312175277495
June112385075473
July112385075415
August112385075456
September112495075455
October1124104975455
November1123105075455
December112311467159
1999
January1123114671459
February1123114671462
March1123104671455
April1123104671456
May1123104671456
June1124124571452
July1124123763442
August1123123762446
September1123123560436
October1123123359438
November1122123357439
December1122123155426
2000
January1122123054426
February1122122953423
March1121122952427
April1119122748418
May1120122646419
June1120122645414
July1119112647418
August1119112647419
September1118112747419
October1118112747419
November1119122748418
December1116123048418
2001
January1116122947420
February1116122947422
March1116122846422
April1116122947424
May1116122644425
June1116122644425
July1116122644422
august1116122744422
September1116122745413
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Table 23.Kazakhstan: Government Budgetary Operations, 1998-2001 1/(In percent of GDP)
19982199920002001
Jan-MarJan-JunJan-SepJan-DecJan-MarJan-JunJan-SepJan-DecJan-MarJan-JunJan-Sep
Total revenue and grants18.013.415.515.617.921.022.221.521.938.824.722.7
Total revenue18.013.415.515.617.820.922.121.321.830.824.722.7
Current revenue17.913.415.515.517.720.922.021.321.730.624.522.5
Tax revenue16.812.614.614.516419.820.519.820.228.122.220.5
Tax on income, profits and capital gains3.92.73.63.74.5687.7798313.19.27.9
Social tax3.03.43.23.54.04.03.73.84.54.24.0
extra budgrtary funds4.3___________
Domestic taxes on good and services6.65.15.55.66.26.96.66.36.28.26.66.6
Taxes on international trade0.60.50.50.50.60.70.70.70.70.90.80.8
Other taxes1.31.31.61.51.61.41.51.31.21.41.31.2
Nontax revenue1.10.80.91.11.31.01.61.41.52.52.32.0
Capital revenue0.20.00.00.00.00.10.10.10.10.20.20.2
Total grants0.00.00.00.00.10.00.10.20.10.00.00.0
Expenditure and net lending26.115.318.218.123.119.321.319.822.919.422.221.5
Expenditure34.615.117.617.422.219.020.619.372.219.321.620.8
General Government services2.30.91.21.21.41.01.11.11.41.51.31.3
Defense1.30.70.70.70.90.80.90.80.80.90.90.9
Public order and security1.70.91.21.21.61.11.41.31.81.51.81.8
Education4.13.2373.43.93.13.33.03.33.43.53.3
Health2.11.21.61.72.21.61.71.82.11.81.81.9
Social insurance and social security9.66.76.76.37.97.87.36.56.66.56.15.8
Housing and public utilities0.20.10.10.20.30.30.40.60.90.60.80.9
Recreation and culture0.70.30.40.50.60.50.60.60.70.50.50.5
Mining and minerals, processing construction__________0.10.1
Agriculture, forestry, and nature conservation0.40.10.20.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.70.7
Industry and construction0.10.00.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.20.10.1
Transportation and communications0.60.10.20.40.60.80.91.11.50.71.01.2
Other expenditure0.80.20.30.61.30.81.00.91.20.61.71.5
Debt servicing0.80.61.20.81.00.81.41.11.40.81.30.3
Official transfers____________
Net lending1.50.30.70.70.90.30.70.50.70.10.60.7
Lending1.60.40.80.81.00.51.00.81.00.40.91.0
Repayments-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.3
Regular budget balance-8.0-2.0-1.7-2.6-5.21.70.91.6-1.011.42.51.1
Quasi-fiscal operations (surplus+)____________
Overall budget balance-8.0-2.0-2.7-2.6-5.21.70.91.6-1.011.42.51.1
Financing-8.02.02.72.65.2-1.7-0.9-1.61.0-11.4-2.5-1.1
Domestic, net1.0-2.0-0.10.31.50.90.4-0.2-0.70.10.10.1
Foreign, net3.0-1.0-0.2012.40.11.71.11.2-0.10.00.1
Revenues from privatisation of state property3.85.32.9201.71.20.80.6081.50.80.5
Cash free flow0.2-0.30.10.2-0.5-3.9-3.8-31-0.4-12.9-3.4-1.9
Memorandum items:
GDP1,733.3404.7858.51,482.62,016.5524.81,143.71,927.32,596.0643.81,453.02,301.1
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds. The data include significant non-caoh operations and offsets, especially for 1999 (about 0.5 percent of GDP), and have not been reconciled with total financing.

Taking into account extrabudgetary funds.

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds. The data include significant non-caoh operations and offsets, especially for 1999 (about 0.5 percent of GDP), and have not been reconciled with total financing.

Taking into account extrabudgetary funds.

Table 24.Kazakhstan: Government Budgetary Operations, 1998-2001 1/(In billions of tenge)
1998 2199920002001
Jan-MarJan-JunJan-SepJan-DecJan-MarJan-JunJan-SepJan-DecJan-MarJan-JunJan-Sep
Total revenue and grants312.854.1133.4130.8360.8110.0254.1414.2568.2198.3358.7523.2
Total revenue312.654.1133.3230.6358.2109.9252.7411.0565.0198.3358.6523.0
Current revenue309.854.1133.1230.2357.2109.5251.9409.7562.7196.8355.5519.3
Tax revenue290.851.0125.1214.6330.3104.1234.0382.2524.1180.7322.1472.6
Tax on income, profits and capital gains68.411.031.054.890.135.788.1152.5214.584.6133.1181.9
Social tax_12.129.047.070.521.245.771.299.129.161.291.6
Extrabudgetary funds752___________
Domestic taxes oil good and services114.720.617.383.4124.936.075.5121.3161.652.596.31532
Taxes On international trade10.01.94.47.611.73.98.113.118.55.512.218.8
Other taxes22.55.413.521.833.17.316724.130.49.019.427.1
Nontax revenue18.93.18.115.626.95.417.927.538.616.133.546.7
Capital revenue2.80.00.10.41.00.40.81.32.31.53.13.7
Total grants020.00.10.22.60.11.43.23.20.00.20.2
Expenditure and net lending451.662.1156.6268.7465.4101.1243.8382.5593.5124.7322.3497.2
Expenditure426.161.0150.8258.2447.499.7235.5372.2576.2124.2314.3480.9
General Government services39.33.710.218.228.95.012.920.635.19.919.430.7
Defense21.82.65.610.217.24.09.815.520.45.713420.1
Public under and security28.73.810317.832.55.615.525.247.79.526.141.1
Education70.613.032.050.478.516.438.157.284.721.950.575.6
Health36.45.013.575144.88.519.633.954.311.426.643.4
Social insurance and social security165.927.357.2935159.141.083.2125.1171.142.087.6133.6
Housing and public utilities4.30.51.22.66.01.54.611.222.13912.219.7
Recreation and culture12.51.33.37.012.22.86.611.017.53.17.512.3
Mining and minerals, processing, construction__________1.41.3
Agriculture,, forestry, and nature conservation6.70.31.74.16.91.8517.711.42.69.915.1
Industry and construction2.40.10409290.61.94.67.11.12.02.9
Transportation and communications10.2032.1661294.110.320.737.84.414.921.2
Other expenditure13.50.82.99.126.24211.418.231.33.924.134.5
Debt servicing13.92310.212.219.44.516.421.335.54818.821.6
Official transfers0.0___________
Net lending25.51.05.810.418.01.48.310.317.30.58.0162
Lending27.21.77.012.021.02.710914.9_2.613.323.0
Repayments-1.7-0.6-1.2-1.6-3.0-1.32.6-4.6-8.5-2.1-5.1-68
Regular budget balance-138.8-8.0-23.2-37.9-104.68.910.331.8-25.373.636.426.1
Quasi-fiscal operations (surplus+)____________
Overall budget balance-138.8-8.0-23.2-37.9-104.68.910.331.8-25.373.636.426.1
Financing138.88.023.237.9104.68.9-10.3-31.815.3-73.6-36.4-16.0
Domestic, net17.6-8.3-0.74.530.24.84.4-4.4-18.60.71.62.8
Foreign, net51.6-4.1-1.91.149.20.619.820.731.8-0.80.01.7
Revenues from privatization of state property66.721.625.029.234.86.39.210.922.09.511.1123
Cash free flow2.9-1.2083.0-9.5-20.6-43.7-59.0-9.9-83.0-49.1-42.8
Memorandum items:
GDP1,733.3404.7858.11,482.62,016.5524.81,143.11,921.33,596.0643.81,453.02307.1
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds. The data include significant non-caoh operations and offsets, especially for 1999 (about 0.5 percent of GDP), and have not been reconciled with total financing.

Taking into account extrabudgetary funds.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated state budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds. The data include significant non-caoh operations and offsets, especially for 1999 (about 0.5 percent of GDP), and have not been reconciled with total financing.

Taking into account extrabudgetary funds.

Table 25.Kazakhstan: Government Budgetary Operations, 1998-2001 1/(In percent Of total)
19982199920002001
Jan-Mar.Jan-Jun.Jan-Sep.Jan-Dec.Jan-Mar.Jan-Jun.Jan-Sep.Jan-Dec.Jan-Mar.Jan-Jun.Jan-Sep.
Total revenue and grants100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Total revenue99.9100.099.999.999.399.999.499.299.4100.0100.0100.0
Current revenue99.0100.099.899.799.099.599.198.999.099.299.199.3
Tax revenue93.094.293.893.091.594.692.192.392.291.189.890.3
tax on income, profits and capital gains21.920.423.223.725.032.434.736.837.842.637.134.8
Social tax_22.421.720.419.519.318.017.217.414.717.017.5
Extrabudgetary funds24.0___________
Domestic taxes on good and services36.738.035.436.134.632.729.729.328.426.526.829.3
Taxes on international trade3.23.53.33.33.33.5323.23.3283.43.6
Other taxes7.29.910.19.49.26.66.65.85.34.65.45.2
Nontax revalue6.15.86.16.87.54.97.06.66.88.19.38.9
Capital revenue0.90.00.10.20.30.40.30.30.40.80.90.7
Total grants0.10.00.10.10.70.10.60.80.60.00.00.0
Expenditure and net lending100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Expenditure94.498.396.396.196.198.696.697.397.199.697.596.7
General Government services8.76.06.56.86.24.95.35.45.97.96.06.2
Defense4.84.33.63.83.73.94.04.13.44.54.14.0
Public order and security6.36.26.66.67.05.56.46.68.07.68.18.3
education15.620.920.418.816.916.215.615.014.317.615.715.2
Health8.18.18.69.69.68.48.08.99.29.18.38.7
Social insurance and social security36.743.936.534.834.240.534.132.728.833.727.226.9
Housing and public utilities1.00.70.81.01.31.51.92.93.73.13.84.0
Recreation and culture2.82.02.12.62.62.72.72.92.92.52.32.5
Mining and minerals, processing; construction__________0.40.7
Agriculture, forestry, and nature conservation1.50.51.11.51.51.82.12.01.92.13.13.0
Industry and construction0.50.20.30.30.60.60.81.21.20.90.60.6
Transportation and communications2.30.51.42.42.84.04.25.46.43.54.65.5
Other expenditure3.01.31.83.45.64.14.74.85.33.27.56.9
Debt servicing3.13.76.54.54.24.46.75.66.03.95.84.4
Official transfers0.0___________
Net lending5.61.73.73.93.91.43.42.72.90.42.53.3
Lending6.02.74.54.54.52.74.53.94.42.14.14.6
Repayments-0.4-1.0-0.7-0.6-0.6-1.3-1.1-1.2-1.4-1.7-1.6-1.4
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated stale budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds. The data include significant non-cash operations and offsets, especially for 1999 (about 0.5 percent of GDP), and have not been reconciled with total financing.

Taking into account extrabudgetary funds.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff calculations.

Includes financial operations of the consolidated stale budget (republican and local budgets) and net position of extrabudgetary funds. The data include significant non-cash operations and offsets, especially for 1999 (about 0.5 percent of GDP), and have not been reconciled with total financing.

Taking into account extrabudgetary funds.

Table 26.Kazakhstan: Balance of Payments, 1996-2001(In millions of U.S. dollars)
199619971998199920002001
HI
Current account-750-798-1,225-36923-453
Trade balance-335-277-8014782,946698
Exports (f.o.b.)6,2926,8995,8716,1239,7954,789
Non-oil exports5,0345,2284,2203,94851132424
Of which; Shuttle exports381387422387465220
Oil-exports1,2571,6711,6502,1744,6822,365
Imports, (f.o.b.)-6,627-7,176-6,672-5,645-6,849-1,091
Non-oil imports-6,597-7.009-6.525-5.623-6769-3,999
Of which: Shuttle imports-2,171-3,185-2,574-2,106-2198-1,075
Oil-imports-30-166-147-21-80-92
Services and income balance-474-596-546-670-2223-1242
Services, net-254-282-250-171-1,031-670
Credit6748429049331,134614
Transportation432495388421543315
Travel199289407363356182
Other services4358109150235117
Debit-928-1,124-1,154-1,104-2,164-1.285
Transportation-357-392-418-400-193-303
Travel-319-445-498-394-408-229
Other services-252-267-238-310-1263-753
Income, net-220-314-296-500-1,192-572
Credit57759510913982
Compensation of employees116442
Investment income56748910513581
Of which: Interest on international reserves465258773265
Debit-277-389-392-608-1,331-654
Compensation of employees-19-24-36-61-68-28
Investment income-258-365-356-548-1263-627
Current transfers587512215720092
Capital and Financial account1,6752,4671,8569251,059475
Medium and long-term loans and credits, net370823696201269117
Government and government guaranteed, net263467512154103-17
Central government, net338317673290879
Drawings 1/338322681353165.60
Repayment 1/0-5-8-63-77-51
Government guaranteed, net-76150-161-13616-26
Drawings143317545816628
Repayment-219-167-215-194-150-54
Commercial banks, net43745132840
Other private sector, net1033191393413894
Net foreign direct investment, net1,1371,3201,1431,5831,245.1,582
Portfolio investment, net22440462-46-62-1,030
Short-term and other capital, net260360324-580-102-99
Capital transfers, net-316-440-369-234-291-95
Errors and omissions-869-1,179-1,054-667-1,402181
Overall balance55490-123222580202
Financing-55-190423-222-580-202
Net international reserves of the NBK (increase -)-55-490423-222-580-202
of witch: Fund credit (net)135-6123-176-4300
Purchases1350218000
Repurchases0-6-95-176-4300
Memorandum items:
GDP (in U.S. dollar)21,03622,16522,13716,95618,26820,468
Current account (in percent of GDP)-3.6-3.6-5.5-0.25.1-2.2
NBK gross international reserves (in million of U.S. dollars)1,9612,2521,9642,00320962298
In months of imports of goods and non-factor services3.13.33.13.62.92.3
In precent of stock of short-term debt 2/141.9115.684.6111.0139.2137.2
Stock of external debt (in million of U.S. dollar) 1/7,0969,0179,87812,03412,57213,360
In percent of GDP34.140.844.871.068.865.3
Excluding intra-company loans24.629.529.534.631.728.9
Public external debt service (in millions of U.S. dollars) 1/237525836906224
In percent of exports of good and non-factor services3.17.711.83.34.1
Sources: Kazakhstan authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes impact of the settlement of mutual claims between Russia and Kazakhstan of $1,691.7 million in October 1998,

Short-term debt is on a original maturity basis before 2000. From 2000 onwards, short-term debt is calculated by Fund staff on a remaining maturity basis.

Sources: Kazakhstan authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes impact of the settlement of mutual claims between Russia and Kazakhstan of $1,691.7 million in October 1998,

Short-term debt is on a original maturity basis before 2000. From 2000 onwards, short-term debt is calculated by Fund staff on a remaining maturity basis.

Table 27.Kazakhstan: Composition of Exports, 1997–2001
1997199819992000Jan-Aug 2001
VolumePrice 1/ValueVolumeprice1/ValueVolumeprice1/ValueVolumeprice1/ValueVolumeprice1/Value
Unit for volume(In millions of U.S dollars)(In millions of U.S dollars)(ln millions of U.S dollars)(ln millions of U.S dollars)(ln millions of U.S dollars)
Customs exports
Oil and gas condensatethousand tons16,331.8102.01,670.920,429.180.81,650.523,673.886.32,040.229348.8153.44502.421225.1138.22933.0
Coalthousand tons24,857.014.7365.423.578413.7323.216,175.29.4152.025679.36.6168.520458.18.3168.8
Oil refining productsthousand tons1,421.690.2128.41,037.750.552.5900.362.956.61008.1100.9101.71065.889.995.8
Aluminathousand tons1,200.1123.9148.71,002.4144.4144.71,159.6117.6136.41356.4133.3180.7814.8155.0126.3
refeined copperthousand tons287.92,100.0604.7323.01,572.4507.9355.31,479.3525.6393.51,700669.1255.01,603408.8
Unrefined zincThousand tons191.11,146.7219.2218.0833.1,181.6207.0787.2163.0312.2853.7198.2156.21,712.21112
Unrefined leadthousand tons77.8635.649.585.2479440.8110.0439.948.4155.5414264.484.7412.634.9
Chromium ores and concentratesthousand Ions579.627.015.7388.434.813.5528.336.319.2557.438.521.5383.345.417.4
Iron ores and concentratesthousand ions9,271.020.9193.87,354.824.217773,496.110.938.25341.99.651.35047.445.417.4
Ferroalloysthousand tons609.7336.2205.0575.5389.3224.0722.8294.5212.9845.3347.1293.4540.0388.0209.6
Rolled ferrous metalthousand Inns2,795.6252.0704.52,374.5217.2515.71,918.0205.6599.93261.8234.2764.12065.9191.1394.8
Yellow phosphorusthousand tons1761,132.920.04.71411.16.69.71,056.410.212.7911.311.611.28199.2
Grainthousand ions1,577.5143.1511.62,905.2101.7295.43,816.282.2313.65681.888.1500.51767.1109.8194.1
Cotton fiberthousand tons63.91,213.677.548.21,077.351.962.1796.849.585.3936.479.952.91,037.954.9
Woolthousand Ions41.71,367.957.112.01440.017.315.7426.26.79.2450.34.24.4599.62.6
Natural gasmillion cubic meters2,431.88.520.72,105.71,440,0.9822.64,244.75.924.95220.87.237.574210.4412.853.79
large hidesthousand tones42108.546.631.2727.022.644.8462.120.736.5481.717.618.4462.28.5
small hidesthousand tones4,456.023.415.33,982.11.97.34,31.881.84.34130.31.14.72503.31.12.3
others14,4261,139.91187.01468.2946.5
total custom exports6,497.05,435.85,593.29,139.55830,2
operations not included in customs stastistics15.712.68.80.00.0
schedule exports387.8422.0387.5464.5n/a
total exports6,899.25,870.65,988.59,604.0
Source: Kazakhstan authorities, and staff estimates

U.S dollars per unit (ton or piece) except for natural gas which is in U.S. dollar per thousand cubic meters

Source: Kazakhstan authorities, and staff estimates

U.S dollars per unit (ton or piece) except for natural gas which is in U.S. dollar per thousand cubic meters

Table 28.Kazakhstan: Composition of Imports, 1997-2001
1997199819992000Jan-Aug 2001
VolumePrice 1/ValueVolumeprice1/ValueVolumeprice1/ValueVolumeprice1/ValueVolumeprice1/Value
Unit for volume(In millions of U.S dollars)(In millions of U.S dollars)(ln millions of U.S dollars)(ln millions of U.S dollars)(ln millions of U.S dollars)
Customs imports
Oil and gas condensatethousand ton1,726.096.3166.22,074.270.8146.9714.629.921.31009.679.27901350.1100.5135.6
Oil refining productsthousand ton617.12639163.1122.5236.2194.3612.8143.487.91180.4214.2252.9792.2248.8197.1
Electricitymillion kilowatt-hours4,701.925.5119.93,373.824.281.63077.520.563.23102.114.043.31941.314.326.3
Natural gasmillion cubic meters3,003.730.792.23,015.836.9112.62783.436.1100.64218.228.4100.62768.912.991.1
Coalthousand ton975.327426.71,111.124.830.0121.417.419.4688.818.112.3123.424.530
Rolled ferrous metalsthousand ton42.3581924.732.4506.616.438.5333.712945.6458.320.942.6424.518.1
Electrical equipments and mechanical tools1,13431,199.9969.31391.2
Foodstufts37062416282.2235.9
Nonfoods consumer goods400.7356.0410.84176
Vehicles367.7434.0629.9….564.8
others1,364.3