©2004 International Monetary Fund

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Lifting the oil curse: improving petroleum revenue management in Sub-Saharan Africa / Menachem Katz … [et al].—Washington, D. C. : International Monetary Fund, 2004.

p. cm.

ISBN 9781589063174

Includes bibliographical references.

I. Africa, Sub-Saharan—Economic policy. 2. Fiscal policy—Africa, Sub-Saharan. 3. Petroleum industry and trade—Africa, Sub-Saharan. I. Katz, Menachem, 1946–

HC800.L43 2003

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. The IMF has not edited this publication. Some documents cited in this work may not be available publicly.

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Contents

• Preface
• Chapter 1. Introduction
• Chapter 2. Country Overview
• Chapter 3. Macroeconomic Policy Challenges
  • Background Discussion
    • Oil revenue volatility
    • Foreign exchange inflow from oil
    • Exhaustibility of oil
  • Current Practice
  • Discussion and Recommendations
• Chapter 4. Fiscal Policy Formulation
  • Background Discussion
    • Rule-based fiscal policy
    • Possible fiscal rules
  • Current Practice
  • Discussion and Recommendations
• Chapter 5. Persistent Surpluses and Accumulation of Assets
  • Background Discussion
  • Current Practice
  • Discussion and Recommendations
• Chapter 6. Exchange Rate Regimes and Competitiveness
  • Background Discussion
    • General considerations
    • Potential advantages of the flexible
    • Policies in support of a fixed exchange rate regime
  • Current Practice
    • CEMAC countries
    • Angola and Nigeria
  • Discussion and Recommendations
• Chapter 7. Institutional Oversight of the Oil Sector
  • Background Discussion
    • Legal framework
    • National oil companies (NOCs)
  • Current Practice
  • Discussion and Recommendations
• Chapter 8. Transparency Requirements
  • Background Discussion
  • Current Practice
  • Discussion and Recommendations
• Chapter 9. Final Discussion: Toward an Agenda for Further Work
• References
• Boxes
  • Fiscal Policy in Natural Resource-Based Countries
  • Oil Funds and Foreign Exchange Management in CEMAC Countries
  • CEMAC Monetary Arrangement
  • Production-Sharing Contracts
  • Does Governance Matter?
  • Oil Sector Operations in Cameroon—Improvements in Transparency Under the PRGF
• Figures
  • Oil Production, Exports, and Government Revenue, 1990–2006
  • Oil Exports and Government Revenue, 2001
  • Oil Revenues and Government Deficits, 2001
  • Nigeria, Venezuela, and Indonesia: Fiscal Trends, 1978–2001
  • Non-Oil Balances and Oil Prices, 1990–2002
  • Overall and Non-Oil Balances, 1990–2001
  • Oil Prices and Projections Based on Moving Averages, 1960–2002
  • Alternative Fiscal Rules, 2002–25
  • Oil-Producing Developing Countries: Exchange Rate Regimes, 2001
• Tables
  • Oil-Producing Countries in Africa: Selected Economic Indicators, 1960–2000
  • Human Development Indices for Oil-Producing Countries, 2001
  • Current Practice in Fiscal Policy
  • Correlation Between Oil Prices and Government Spending, 1971–2001
  • Oil Price Cyclicality of Public and Private Domestic Demand, 1990–2001
  • Current Practice in Foreign Reserve and Debt Management
  • Economic Performance of Oil Exporters, 1971–2001
  • Current Practice in Governance and Transparency

Preface

With increasing international interest in the oil to be found off Africa’s western and southern coast, there is also intensified scrutiny of the reasons for the disappointing economic performance of the oil-producing countries in the region during the last two to three decades. The question is how to turn oil revenue into a blessing, rather than the curse it may have been in many oil-based economies. This paper discusses the latest thinking on best-practice institutions and policies, compares this with current practice in the African oil-exporting countries, and presents a way forward, taking into account African policymakers’ concerns.

This Special Issues Paper is based on a background paper prepared for a workshop on macroeconomic policies and governance in sub-Saharan African countries held jointly by the African Department (AFR) of the IMF and the Oil and Gas Policy Unit and the Africa Region of the World Bank, during April 29–30, 2003, in Douala, Cameroon. The workshop brought together high-level policymakers from Angola, Cameroon, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, and São Tomé and Príncipe, including ministers of finance, ministers of oil, governors of central banks, and heads of national oil companies, as well as IMF and Bank staff. This paper also takes into account African policymakers’ concerns and suggestions as expressed during the workshop.

The paper reflects the contributions of several staff members in the African Department. In particular, the authors are grateful to Magnus Alvesson, Rodolphe Blavy, Deborah Malama Chungu, Jean-François Dauphin, Mansour Ndiaye, and Joseph Ntamatungiro. We also benefited greatly from comments and suggestions from Rolando Ossowski of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, Charles McPherson from the World Bank, and numerous other reviewers. We would also like to acknowledge the help provided by Marie-Jeannette Ng Choy Hing in document preparation, and thank Tom Walter from African Department and Sean M. Culhane of the External Relations Department for editing the paper and coordinating the production of the publication.