- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- September 2000
© 2001 International Monetary Fund
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World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund.—1980–—Washington, D.C.: The Fund, 1980—
v.; 28 cm.—(1981-84: Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund ISSN 0251-6365)
Has occasional updates, 1984—
ISSN 0258-7440 = World economic and financial surveys
ISSN 0256-6877 = World economic outlook (Washington)
1. Economic history—1971– —Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund)
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- Assumptions and Conventions
- Chapter I. Prospects and Policy Challenges
- How Hard a Landing in the United States?
- Will Japan’s Fragile Recovery Continue?
- Can Domestic Demand Sustain European Growth?
- How Will the Global Slowdown Affect Asia?
- How Will the Global Slowdown Affect Latin America?
- Can Africa Achieve Sustained Higher Growth?
- The Middle East: Managing Terms of Trade Volatility
- Rebalancing the Policy Mix in Europe’s Emerging Markets
- Commonwealth of Independent States: Oil Prices Are Key
- Appendix I: The Global Slowdown and Commodity Prices
- Appendix II: Reducing External Imbalances
- Chapter II. Three Current Policy Issues
- Chapter III. Fiscal Improvement In Advanced Economies: How Long Will It Last?
- Chapter IV. The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets: Can It Be Maintained?
- Annex. Summing Up by the Acting Chairman
- Statistical Appendix
- Data and Conventions
- Classification of Countries
- List of Tables
- Output (Tables 1–7)
- Inflation (Tables 8–13)
- Financial Policies (Tables 14–21)
- Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26)
- Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32)
- Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 33–37)
- External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43)
- Flow of Funds (Table 44)
- Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46)
- 1.1 How Well Do Forecasters Predict Turning Points?
- 1.2 Sustainability of the U.S. External Current Account
- 1.3 Japan’s Recent Monetary and Structural Policy Initiatives
- 1.4 The Enhanced HIPC Initiative in Africa
- 1.5 Large Current Account Deficits in Transition Countries Seeking Membership in the European Union
- 2.1 The Weakness of the Australian and New Zealand Currencies
- 2.2 Africa’s Trade and the Gravity Model
- 3.1 Japan: A Fiscal Outlier?
- 3.2. Financial Implications of the Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasury Securities
- 3.3. Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Macroeconomic Performance
- 3.4. Fiscal Frameworks in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies
- 4.1 Why Emerging Market Countries Should Strive to Preserve Lower Inflation
- 4.2 Is There a Relationship Between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation?
- 4.3 Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies: Implementation and Challenges
- A.1 Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Countries
- 1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
- 1.2 Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
- 1.3 Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
- 1.4 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
- 1.5 Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- 1.6 Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- 1.7 Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
- 1.8 Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- 1.9 Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- 1.10 European Union Accession Candidates: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- 1.11 Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
- 1.12 Alternative Scenario: Soft Landing with Imbalance Adjustment
- 1.13 Alternative Scenario: Harder Landing
- 2.1 Change in Market Capitalization From March 2000 to March 2001
- 2.2 Impact of a Rise in Equity Valuations on Consumption
- 2.3 Impact of a Rise in Equity Valuations on Investment
- 2.4 Are Stock Valuations a Leading Indicator of The Business Cycle?
- 2.5 Explaining Bilateral Exchange Rate Movements
- 2.6 Measures of Trade Policy Regimes in Africa and Other Regions: Sachs-Warner Openness Index
- 2.7 Measures of Trade Policy Regimes in Africa and Other Regions: IMF’s Trade Restrictiveness Index, 2000
- 3.1 Net Migration Flows to Major Industrial Economies in 2000 to 2050
- 4.1 Inflation in Industrial Countries and Emerging Markets
- 4.2 Inflation in Emerging Markets
- 4.3 Emerging Market Countries: Selected Variables
- 4.4 Major Emerging Market Exchange-Rate and Money-Based Stabilization Programs Since the 1970s
- 4.5 Fiscal Balances of Countries That Adopted Inflation Targeting
- 1.1 Global Indicators
- 1.2 Selected European Union Countries, Japan, and United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
- 1.3 Financial Market Developments
- 1.4 External Vulnerabilities in Developing Countries
- 1.5 United States: Sharp Slowdown and Persistent Imbalances
- 1.6 Japan: Recovery Faltering
- 1.7 Euro Area: Growth Moderating, but Still Reasonably Robust
- 1.8 Selected Asian Countries: The Impact of Weakening External Demand
- 1.9 Western Hemisphere: Exposure to External Shocks
- 1.10 Sub-Saharan Africa: Why Has the Recent Expansion Slowed?
- 1.11 Middle East: Responding to Oil Price Volatility
- 1.12 Selected European Countries: Domestic Demand Growth and General Government Balances
- 1.13 Russia: Recovery Driven by Exchange Rate Depreciation and Oil Prices
- 1.14 Primary Commodity Prices and Selected Economic Indicators
- 1.15 West Texas Oil: Spot Price and Futures Contacts
- 1.16 Computer Chip Prices
- 1.17 Global Imbalances Adjustment Scenarios
- 2.1 Equity Price Indices
- 2.2 Stock Price Indices for Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) vs. Non-TMT Sector
- 2.3 Correlation Between Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) and non-TMT Returns Across Regions
- 2.4 Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) as a Share of GDP
- 2.5 NASDAQ Stock Price and Private Fixed Investment in Computers and Peripheral Equipment
- 2.6 The “New Economy” Cycle of the Late 1990s
- 2.7 Movements of the Euro and Yen
- 2.8 Global Net Portfolio Flows to the United States by Asset Class
- 2.9 Net Portfolio Flows into U.S. Stocks from Euro Area and the Exchange Rate
- 2.10 The Euro and Long-Term Interest Rate Differential
- 2.11 Africa: Trade Indicators
- 2.12 African Trade Arrangements: Intra and Extraregional Trade, 1980-98
- 2.13 Africa: The Regional Trade Integration Quilt
- 3.1 Fiscal Trends in OECD Countries
- 3.2 Fiscal Developments in the OECD Area
- 3.3 Fiscal Developments in Groups of OECD Countries
- 3.4 Actual and Structural Balances in Groups of OECD Countries
- 3.5 Expenditure Developments in Groups of OECD Countries
- 3.6 Revenue Developments in Groups of OECD Countries
- 3.7 Elderly Dependency Ratios
- 3.8 Direct Effects of Aging on Government Finances
- 3.9 Employment—Population Ratios by Age, Selected Countries, 1999
- 3.10 Total Dependency Ratios
- 3.11 Saving, Investment, and Current Account Balances in the Reference Scenario
- 4.1 Inflation Over Time
- 4.2 Seigniorage in Emerging Market Economies, 1950–2000
- 4.3 Inflation and Its Determinants in Emerging Markets
- 4.4 Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets in the 1990s
- 4.5 Monetary Regimes in Emerging Market Countries
- 4.6 Foreign Currency Deposits
- 4.7 Selected Exchange Rate Stabilization Programs, 1985–98
- 4.8 Selected Monetary Stabilization Programs, 1975–90
ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their average levels during February 19-March 16, except for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary polices in industrial countries, see Box A.1); that the average price of oil will be $25.50 a barrel in 2001 and $22.50 a barrel in 2002, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 4.5 percent in 2001 and 4.3 percent in 2002. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through end-March 2001.
The following conventions have been used throughout the World Economic Outlook:
… to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or negligible;
– between years or months (for example, 1997-98 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (for example, 1997/98) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
In figures and tables, shaded areas indicate IMF staff projections.
Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown are due to rounding.
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
FURTHER INFORMATION AND DATA
This report on the World Economic Outlook is available in full on the IMF’s Internet site, www.imf.org. Accompanying it on the website is a larger compilation of data from the WEO database than in the report itself, consisting of files containing the series most frequently requested by readers. These files may be downloaded for use in a variety of software packages.
Inquiries about the content of the World Economic Outlook and the WEO database should be sent by mail, electronic mail, or telefax (telephone inquiries cannot be accepted) to:
World Economic Studies Division
International Monetary Fund
700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A.
E-mail: email@example.com Telefax: (202) 623-6343
The projections and analysis contained in the World Economic Outlook are an integral element of the IMF’s ongoing surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system. The IMF has published the World Economic Outlook annually from 1980 through 1983 and biannually since 1984.
The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments together with various support departments.
The country projections are prepared by the IMF’s area departments on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets. For approximately 50 of the largest economies—accounting for 90 percent of world output—the projections are updated for each World Economic Outlook exercise. For smaller countries, the projections are based on those prepared at the time of the IMF’s regular Article IV consultations with those countries and updated during the WEO exercise.
The analysis in the World Economic Outlook draws extensively on the ongoing work of the IMF’s area and specialized departments, and is coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The World Economic Outlook project is directed by David Robinson, Assistant Director of the Research Department, together with Tamim Bayoumi, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division.
Primary contributors to the current issue include Luis Catão, Hali Edison, Maitland MacFarlan, James Morsink, Cathy Wright, Marco Cangiano, Markus Haacker, Michael Kell, Luca Ricci, Torsten Sløk, Arvind Subramanian, and Marco Terrones. Other contributors include Vivek Arora, Tim Callen, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Richard Hemming, Sanjay Kalra, Ken Kletzer, Charles Kramer, Prakash Loungani, Paolo Mauro, Blair Rourke, Abebe Selassie, and Mark Zelmer. Mandy Hemmati, Siddique Hossain, Yutong Li, Ning Song, and Bennett Sutton provided research assistance, together with Rikhil Bhavnani and Estella Macke. Gretchen Byrne, Nicholas Dopuch, Staffan Gorne, Toh Kuan, Olga Plagie, Di Rao, and Anthony G. Turner processed the data and managed the computer systems. Celia Burns, Marlene George, Rochelle Gittens, and Lisa Nugent were responsible for word processing. Jeff Hayden of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication.
The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the World Economic Outlook on April 5 and 6, 2001. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.