Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
September 2000
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ANNEX SUMMING UP BY THE CHAIRMAN

Directors welcomed the continued recovery and strength of the world economy. Global real GDP growth in 2000 is projected to be the strongest in over a decade, and to remain at high levels in 2001. The higher growth rates shown by all major regions of the world are due in large part to the remarkable strength of the United States’ economy, supported by a robust expansion in Europe and the countries in transition. Also contributing to world growth are a consolidation of the recovery in Asia, improved activity in Africa, and rebounds from last year’s slowdowns in Latin America and the Middle East. Economic activity in Japan is also improving, although the incipient recovery remains fragile. This strong performance owes much to concerted efforts of policymakers across the globe, including determined adjustment efforts in most crisis countries, and sound macroeconomic policies in advanced and developing countries.

While the overall outlook is encouraging, Directors nevertheless observed that risks and uncertainties remain and that there is no room for complacency. In particular, a number of serious economic and financial imbalances persist in the world economy. These include the lopsided pattern of output and demand growth among industrial countries and the associated imbalances in the external current accounts, the misalignments among the major currencies, and the generous level of asset market valuations in the United States and several other countries. The possibility that these imbalances might unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion. The recent increase in oil prices, if sustained, will also hamper global growth and increase inflationary pressures in advanced countries, and adversely affect oil-importing developing countries, including many poor countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nonetheless, Directors noted that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would meet in early September to review the supply situation, and that they had earlier indicated their intention to maintain prices in a range below current levels.

Against this background, and despite the improvement in the global outlook, Directors observed that policymakers continue to face important, if widely varying, challenges. In the advanced countries, it is important to continue efforts to facilitate an orderly rebalancing of growth and demand across the three main currency areas. In some advanced countries, a further tightening of macroeconomic policies may be needed to reduce the risks of overheating, particularly if higher energy prices feed through to underlying inflation. In other advanced countries with margins of slack, macroeconomic policies need to continue to support recovery. More broadly, Directors emphasized that progress with structural reforms needs to continue in almost all developing and most advanced countries in order to strengthen prospects for sustained economic growth.

Directors also expressed concern that, despite the strength of the global recovery, poverty remains unacceptably high, and many poor countries continue to face serious economic problems—compounded in some cases by natural disasters and adverse movements in non-oil commodity prices. Directors agreed that sustained efforts by the poorest countries will be essential, notably in promoting macroeconomic and political stability, good governance, and domestic ownership of the reform agenda. Moreover, stronger support from the international community is also needed, including through debt relief focused on poverty reduction—which requires funding in full the enhanced initiative for Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs)—a reversal of the declining trend in some advanced countries’ official development aid, and reform of protectionist trade policies in advanced economies that particularly affect poor countries. Additional international assistance will also be needed to help address the HIV/AIDS pandemic, which poses a severe human as well as economic threat, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia.

Developments in the Major Currency Areas

In the United States, Directors noted that, following the very rapid expansion in the second half of 1999, some signs of a moderation in the growth of economic activity and demand have emerged in the first half of 2000. Notwithstanding a jump in headline inflation due to higher energy prices, core inflation generally remains contained, aided by the continued strong growth in labor productivity linked to high levels of investment in information technology (IT). Directors expressed concern, however, that the U.S. expansion continues to be accompanied by economic and financial imbalances, including a record external current account deficit and high equity valuations. They also noted that, with labor markets still tight and earlier temporary factors that had held down prices beginning to unwind, inflationary pressures remain a concern. Against this background, Directors generally believed that the Federal Reserve should maintain a cautious stance against inflation, and several Directors considered that some further tightening of monetary policy will likely be needed to restrain inflationary pressures. To avoid adding to demand pressures, Directors stressed that it would be important at least to maintain the current fiscal stance by resisting calls for further tax reductions or additional expenditures, particularly against the background of the upcoming elections. Concerning the longer term, Directors supported plans to preserve prospective fiscal surpluses and pay down the public debt so as to improve national saving and help meet the fiscal requirements associated with an aging population.

Directors welcomed the continuing strength of the expansion in the euro area and the accompanying substantial decline in unemployment. However, they recognized that cyclical positions continue to differ substantially among European countries and that, in some cases, clear signs of overheating have emerged. While core inflation has remained modest, Directors noted that the European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates by a cumulative 2 percentage points since late 1999 to forestall potential inflationary pressures arising from buoyant activity, rising oil prices, and the continued weakness of the euro. Looking forward, they agreed that monetary policy should remain prudent but flexible, responding appropriately to risks arising from both diminishing margins of slack and the potential for a substantial appreciation of the euro.

Directors observed that the central challenge in the euro area is to take advantage of the present cyclical upturn to consolidate fiscal reforms and to decisively accelerate structural reform. They underscored the need to avoid procyclical fiscal policies, particularly in countries that continue to face high debt stocks and substantial future pension liabilities. Directors stressed that the present upturn provides an opportunity to reduce the high tax burden in most of these countries—without weakening the underlying fiscal position—and to accelerate structural reforms in labor and product markets so as to improve longer-term growth and employment prospects. Although progress on this front has been made in many countries in recent years, Directors noted that many structural rigidities remain and that reforms should be deepened and broadened to enhance economic efficiency and expand the effective labor supply.

In Japan, most Directors agreed that a modest recovery is under way, led by strengthening corporate profitability and investment, particularly in IT. They noted, however, that the recovery remains fragile, especially in view of the continued weakness in private consumption, and could be derailed by adverse developments. Directors, therefore, stressed that macroeconomic policies will need to remain supportive until a self-sustaining recovery is clearly under way. In this vein, some Directors expressed concern that the recent ending of the zero interest rate policy could prove premature, especially if the recovery turns out weaker than presently envisaged by the Bank of Japan. While the effective rise in interest rates was small, these Directors underscored that monetary policy should remain accommodative and that ending the zero interest rate policy should not be seen as the first of a series of interest rate increases, which could undermine market sentiment and the still fragile recovery. They also noted the need to build up confidence by sending predictable and consistent signals to markets. Directors noted that, while fiscal consolidation is essential over the medium term, fiscal policy needs to remain supportive of recovery in the near term, and a supplementary budget should be implemented in a timely fashion to cushion the expected withdrawal of fiscal stimulus later this year. They also emphasized that structural reforms remain essential to ensure a durable economic recovery. While important progress has been made, Directors stressed that further efforts are needed in restructuring corporations, credit cooperatives and some regional banks, and strengthening the insurance sector. A few Directors suggested that further opening of the economy would provide an additional impetus to ongoing structural reforms.

Directors welcomed the analysis on the “new economy” and its links to financial markets in the World Economic Outlook. They agreed that the recent acceleration in productivity growth in the United States has in part reflected rising investment in new technology, although many considered that the extent to which this reflects a onetime jump in productivity associated with capital deepening, or a sustainable increase in underlying productivity growth, is still unclear. Directors noted that there has been less evidence so far of a link between new technologies and increased productivity growth in many other advanced economies. This could reflect many factors, including the time needed to adapt efficiently to new technology. They added that the benefits of new technology depend on accelerating reforms toward more flexible labor and product markets, and on the availability of capital for start-up companies.

Prospects for Developing and Transition Economies

Directors observed that Latin America continues to recuperate from the crises that affected emerging markets in 1997–98, with growth being fueled by buoyant exports—particularly to the United States—and a recovery in consumer confidence and spending. Inflation has remained in the single digits in most countries, and the current account deficit for the region, relative to GDP, is expected to narrow somewhat in 2000, reflecting healthy exports and some improvement in the terms of trade. Directors acknowledged, however, that these aggregate trends mask important differences across countries. Noting that the region’s needs for external funds remain sizable, Directors welcomed the rebound in capital flows to emerging markets in recent months, which has been particularly beneficial to some Latin American countries. They cautioned, however, that these flows are volatile and could reverse if, for instance, global and notably U.S. monetary conditions are tightened further. To foster and sustain more even flows of private capital, Directors encouraged the region’s decision makers to take advantage of the economic upswing to continue to strengthen economic fundamentals and reduce vulnerabilities to external shocks, including through further fiscal consolidation and reform, supported by measures to improve the operation of labor and product markets.

Directors observed that the recovery in Asia continues to strengthen, while inflation remains low. They noted that the rapid expansion has been fueled by accommodative macroeconomic policies, as well as the growth of exports—particularly of information technology goods. Rising private domestic demand has also underpinned growth, particularly in those countries most advanced in the recovery where fixed investment is rising rapidly. Directors agreed that in those countries in particular, fiscal positions will need to be consolidated as output gaps shrink. Directors urged countries with less robust recoveries to enhance domestic and foreign confidence through rapid and sustained implementation of sound policies. They cautioned that improved performance in the crisis-affected countries could prove short-lived if the momentum for structural reforms is not maintained, and encouraged those countries to pay particular attention to the financial and corporate sectors, including the underlying institutional and prudential framework. Directors noted that vigorous growth in China and India has buttressed activity in Asia. They underscored, nevertheless, that continued structural reforms are needed to maintain robust growth in these two countries. These include, in China, additional measures to strengthen the banking sector and restructure state-owned enterprises—which have become even more important in light of its prospective entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO)—and, in India, further efforts to consolidate public sector finances and move to a more liberalized economy.

Directors welcomed the better-than-expected recovery in Russia, which has also provided support for other countries in the Common wealth of Independent States (CIS). They noted that the recovery has benefited from improving external earnings, partly reflecting higher world energy prices and a competitive exchange rate, whose effects have spread to the domestic economy, with rising real wages buoying domestic demand. Directors, however, cautioned that longer-term economic prospects continue to depend upon accelerating structural reform—including tax reform, improvements in the legal framework and competition policy, and measures to reduce barter and arrears, and increase transparency and improve governance. Directors urged the government to seize the opportunity provided by improved short-term prospects and the associated increase in fiscal revenues to further strengthen structural reforms, including by vigorously implementing the 18-month reform plan recently announced by the government.

Directors agreed that economic activity is likely to strengthen in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic countries taking part in the European Union (EU) accession process, bolstered by the upswing in exports to western Europe and by better-than-expected performances in Russia and other countries in the CIS. They emphasized that the stronger outlook is also attributable to generally sound macroeconomic policies and to progress made on structural reforms. Nevertheless, Directors expressed concern about the relatively large, and in some cases growing, external deficits financed in part by sizable capital inflows in most of these countries. They urged these countries to ensure fiscal and monetary discipline and to continue progress on structural reforms so as to reduce external vulnerability, particularly as capital accounts are further liberalized as part of the EU accession process.

Directors observed that economic developments in many Middle Eastern and African countries continue to be shaped significantly by external factors, including changes in commodity prices and growth in export markets. They noted that the rebound in world oil prices has been beneficial to activity and prospects in the oil-producing countries in both of these regions. Directors cautioned, however, that many of the non-oil-producing countries in these regions continue to face substantial terms-of-trade losses as export prices of nonfuel commodities, particularly agricultural products, remain generally depressed, particularly in real terms. Growth in a number of these countries has rebounded in the past year, largely because of appropriate macroeconomic policies and more broad-based reform efforts that allowed these countries to benefit from stronger export market growth. Directors recognized, however, that the necessary adjustments to sustain growth and reduce poverty remain difficult. Directors also stressed the need to continue efforts to liberalize and diversify these economies and to encourage broad-based, private-sector-led growth. In addition, Directors cautioned that, in some countries, fiscal policy needs to be conducted in a less procyclical fashion so as not to exacerbate the boom and bust cycles characteristic in many commodity-dependent countries.

The Transition Process

Directors welcomed the focus on the transition process in the World Economic Outlook. They broadly agreed that much has been achieved since the start of transition, and that many of the countries involved now enjoy the benefits of a stable macroeconomic environment. Significant progress has also been made in the difficult task of creating the necessary institutional infrastructure to underpin a market economy. However, Directors noted that progress has differed widely among transition economies, reflecting not only their diversity in historical and cultural backgrounds, geography, and levels of development, but also differences in policy strategies and reform implementation.

Directors considered the difference in output performance between the east Asian and other transition economies particularly striking. They generally concurred that the reform strategy adopted in east Asia has depended on the structure of these economies, where the difficult task of reforming state-owned industrial enterprises could be delayed because these enterprises represent only a small part of the economy: the relatively large agricultural sector rapidly boosted output and provided a pool of labor for new businesses. Directors doubted that such an approach was available to other transition economies outside of east Asia, where large state enterprise sectors needed rapid reform and agricultural sectors were small.

Directors noted that outside of east Asia the transition process has generally been more difficult than anticipated, with output falling rapidly in the early years of transition and currently exceeding the level prevailing at the start of transition in only a handful of economies, and poverty increasing significantly in many countries. Directors also contrasted the generally better output performance of the EU accession candidates of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics compared to the CIS countries. They considered that this reflected not only more favorable starting conditions but also stronger structural and institutional reforms in the former group. Directors recognized that in many CIS countries the difficult process of implementing structural and institutional reforms has been slowed by the influence of vested interests, while in the EU accession countries, the external anchor created by the requirements for accession has helped to foster consensus on potentially divisive reforms. Directors agreed that a major challenge for the CIS countries is to foster the necessary internal cohesion to promote needed structural and institutional reforms.

Directors considered that the accession process has provided further momentum to the significant adjustment and reform efforts that the EU accession countries have been pursuing since the start of transition. They believed that EU membership and, at some future point, participation in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), should bring substantial long-term benefits to the candidates—leading, for example, to even closer trade and financial integration with western Europe, to reductions in risk premia, and to the provision of a more secure environment for foreign investment. To best achieve these benefits, Directors agreed that the applicants need to retain relatively flexible labor and product market structures to support the economic adjustments that they all still face. Further institutional development is needed, particularly to improve the implementation of laws and regulations. Directors also noted that the applicants need to address a number of fiscal issues, including those associated with further banking sector restructuring and rehabilitation in several cases, as well as expenditure pressures arising from pension, health, and social support systems. In light of these requirements, they urged the candidate countries to reach and maintain a relatively conservative fiscal stance, which would also provide important support for monetary policy. Several Directors also drew attention to the reforms needed within the EU to make it ready for the timely accession of the candidate countries.

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises four sections: Assumptions, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2000–2001 and the medium-term scenario for 2002–2005 are summarized in the first section. The second section provides a general description of the data, and the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the third section. Note that the group of advanced economies includes Israel and four newly industrialized Asian economies, which all were added to the industrial country group in the May 1997 issue of the World Economic Outlook.

The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through the end of August 2000. The figures for 2000 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

Assumptions

Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period July 18-August 15. For 2000 and 2001, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.327 and 1.322, respectively.

Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

It is assumed that the price of oil will average $26.53 a barrel in 2000 and $23.00 a barrel in 2001. In the medium term, the oil price is assumed to remain unchanged in real terms.

With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 6.8 percent in 2000 and 7.4 in 2001; that the three-month certificate of deposit rate in Japan will average 0.3 percent in 2000 and 0.5 in 2001; and that the three-month interbank deposit rate for the euro will average 4.6 percent in 2000 and 5.2 percent in 2001.

With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998 the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are:

1 euro=40.3399Belgian francs
=1.95583Deutsche mark
=166.386Spanish pesetas
=6.55957French francs
=0.787564Irish pound
=1,936.27Italian lire
=40.3399Luxembourg francs
=2.20371Netherlands guilders
=13.7603Austrian schillings
=200.482Portuguese escudos
=5.94573Finnish markkaa

See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

Data and Conventions

Data and projections for 184 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Countries

The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. These projections and policy assumptions are generally based on information available through the end of August 2000. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 1416 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances).

United States. The fiscal projections are based on the Clinton Administration’s June 2000 Mid-Session Review of the FY2001 Budget. The projections are adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s and the Clinton Administration’s macroeconomic assumptions. State and local government fiscal balances are assumed to remain constant as a percent of GDP.

Japan. The projections take account of the FY1999 supplementary budgets and the FY2000 initial budget. The ¥18 trillion stimulus package announced in November 1999 includes additional public investment of ¥6.8 trillion (headline figure) through FY2000, most of which is expected to take place in the first two quarters of FY2000. Local governments are projected to largely offset their share in the stimulus package with cuts in own-account spending elsewhere. A typical supplementary budget of¥1 trillion is included in the calculations for FY2000, and the initial budget for FY2001 is assumed to be of a similar size as the FY2000 budget. The use of public funds to resolve problems in the banking sector is assumed to decline sharply in FY2001, which is the main factor in the improvement in the fiscal balance in that year.

Germany. The fiscal projections incorporate the government’s fiscal consolidation package for 2000 and beyond and the income tax reform package for 2001–2005 that were approved by Parliament in December 1999 and July 2000, respectively. The fiscal projections for 2000 also include the proceeds from the August 2000 sale of mobile phone licenses (UMTS) of DM 99.4 billion (US$47.5 billion), which amounts to 2.5 percent of GDP.

France. The projections are based on the national authorities’ targets. For 2000, the projections are adjusted for the better-than-expected 1999 outturn and for the July 2000 announcement of F30 billion expected revenue overperformance. The projections also incorporate the one percentage point reduction in the value-added tax in April as well as other tax cuts included in the 2000 supplementary budget. For 2001, the assumptions in the preliminary budget discussions are adjusted for the expected receipts from the sale of third generation mobile phone licenses, which amount to 1.3 percent of GDP, and for the IMF staff’s stronger economic outlook. For the medium term, the projections are broadly consistent with the government’s Stability Program, adjusted for the differences between the staff’s and the authorities’ macro-economic assumptions.

Italy. The fiscal projections are based on the national authorities’ estimates for 1999, on the 2000 budget approved in December 1999 by parliament, and on the medium-term fiscal plan covering the period 2001–2004 released in June 2000. The fiscal measures included in the 2000 budget are assumed to be implemented fully and to have the impact as indicated in the government’s fiscal plan. Also, the projections do not include receipts from the sale of Universal Mobile Telecommunications Service (UMTS) licenses. For 2001-2004, the IMF staff’s projections build on the authorities’ projections at unchanged legislation (tendenziale) and factor in differences in the macroeconomic assumptions for the medium term, the effect of changes in legislation needed on the basis of current policies (in particular, expected wage increases and new capital spending), and the announced fiscal targets (quadro programmatico). For 2005, the projections assume an unchanged primary structural balance. Details on the measures for 2001 will be unveiled in the Budget Law to be submitted to parliament in September 2000.

United Kingdom. The budget projections are based on the 2000/2001 Budget Report announced by the Chancellor on March 21, 2000. Additionally, the projections incorporate more recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including the provisional budgetary outturn for FY1999/2000. Projections for 2000 also include the proceeds of the recent mobile phone license auction (about 2.4 percent of GDP) following the Eurostat accounting guidelines. These proceeds are not included in the computation of the structural balance. The projections reflect a slightly different assessment and forecast by the IMF staff of potential and actual output with respect to the Budget Report. For revenues, the medium-term projections incorporate the effect of tax changes introduced in the current and previous budgets.

Canada. The fiscal outlook prepared by the IMF staff assumes tax and spending policies in line with those outlined in the February 2000 budget, adjusted for the staff’s economic projections. It is expected that the federal government will continue to target a balanced budget on an ex ante basis, with any unspent portion of the contingency reserve allocated to reducing federal government debt. On this basis, the IMF staff assumes that the federal government budget will be in surplus by Can$3 billion a year (the full amount of the contingency reserve) over the medium term. The consolidated fiscal position for the provinces is assumed to evolve in line with their stated medium-term targets.

Australia. The fiscal projections through FY2004 are based on the 2000/01 budget, which was released in May 2000. For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff’s projections incorporate announced future policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented.

Belgium. The projections for the fiscal deficit are based on the 2000 budget and the 2000–2003 Stability Program adjusted for the difference between the IMF staff’s and national authorities’ growth projections. It is assumed that revenue windfalls due to higher-than-expected growth will be used for deficit reduction according to rules laid out in the 1999–2002 Stability Program.

Greece. The fiscal projections for 2000 are based on the official budget, adjusted to reflect differences in macroeconomic projections and stronger-than-expected revenue performance to date. Projections beyond 2000 incorporate an unchanged ratio of current primary spending in structural terms and a convergence of domestic interest rates with those in the euro area. The projections do not include potential revenues from the auctioning of third-generation mobile phone licenses, which is anticipated to occur in 2001.

Netherlands. The fiscal projections through 2002 are consistent with the government’s rules-based approach to fiscal policy, which comprises medium-term expenditure ceilings (in constant prices) and a baseline path for revenue. Expenditure projections for 2000 are based on the midyear supplementary budget, which allows for spending to be increased up to the ceiling, offsetting substantial growth-related windfalls. For the period after 2002, annual real expenditure growth of 1.2 percent is assumed. On the revenue side, the baseline path includes the effects of planned tax cuts in conjunction with a major tax reform package planned for 2001. This path has been adjusted for the national authorities’ most recent projection of tax windfalls and to reflect the staff’s growth projection. Beyond 2002, the projections assume a further gradual reduction of the revenue ratio by about 0.3 percent of GDP annually.

Portugal. The fiscal projections for 2000 are based on the IMF staff’s estimate of the effects of the 2000 budget and changes in fiscal policy since the announcement of the budget, as well as the staff’s macroeconomic framework. For 2001, the deficit is based on the government’s target in the Stability Program. For 2002–2005, a constant structural primary balance is assumed.

Spain. Fiscal policy projections for 2000 and 2001 are based on the national authorities’ revised deficit targets for those years. Projections for subsequent years assume the social security system will continue to accrue a surplus (based on unchanged policies), while the remainder of the public sector moves gradually to structural balance. Marginal improvements in the overall balance of the public sector in 2002 and 2003 are broadly consistent with those envisaged in the authorities’ Stability Program.

Sweden. The fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ policies as presented in the 2000 Spring budget bill. The authorities have announced nominal expenditure ceilings through 2003 and the objective of achieving a fiscal surplus of 2 percent of GDP on average over the cycle. Recent reports indicate that the authorities may not use the full room above this target for tax cuts in the period ahead, however. The IMF staff has therefore assumed that the authorities will allow the structural surplus to level out at 3 percent of GDP over the medium term.

Switzerland. The projections for 2000 are based on official budget plans. For 2001–2003, projections are in line with the official financial plan that incorporates announced fiscal measures to balance the Confederation’s budget by 2001. Beyond 2003, the general government’s structural balance is assumed to remain unchanged.

Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established framework for monetary policy in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle, so that official interest rates will increase when economic indicators suggest that inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range, and decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits is assumed to average 6.8 percent in 2000 and 7.4 percent in 2001. The projected path for U.S. dollar short-term interest rates reflects the assumption that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise the target Federal Funds rate by another 50 basis points over the second half of 2000, with no further increases in 2001. The rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.3 percent in 2000, with the current accommodative policy stance being maintained, and 0.5 percent in 2001. The rate on six-month euro deposits is assumed to average 4.6 percent in 2000 and 5.1 percent in 2001. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the May 2000 World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1.1.

Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

The completion in 1993 of the comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA) and the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.1 The IMF was actively involved in both projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new BPM began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM.

The members of the European Union have recently adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of the national accounts, referred to as ESA 1995. All national accounts data from 1995 onwards are now presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to 1995 to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed. In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series. Users of EU national accounts data prior to 1995 should nevertheless exercise caution until such time as the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1.2, Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies, in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook.

Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply:

  • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of world or group GDP.
  • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.2
  • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
  • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data, and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.

Classification of Countries

Summary of the Country Classification

The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition.3 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, is an example of an economy for which a database has not been completed. It should also be noted that, owing to a lack of data, only three of the former republics of the dissolved Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia) are included in the group composites for countries in transition.

Each of the three main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major industrial countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 15 current members of the European Union, the 11 members of the euro area, and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. A regional breakdown is also used for the classification of the countries in transition. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 1999 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 19991(Percent of total for group or world)
Number of CountriesGDPExports of Goods and ServicesPopulation
Share of total for
Advanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorldAdvanced economiesWorld
Advanced economies28100.057.4100.077.6100.015.5
Major industrial countries779.845.863.148.974.411.6
United States38.221.918.014.029.64.6
Japan13.37.68.66.713.72.1
Germany8.24.711.69.08.91.4
France5.73.37.15.56.31.0
Italy5.53.25.64.46.11.0
United Kingdom5.63.26.95.46.31.0
Canada3.42.05.14.03.30.5
Other advanced economies2120.211.636.928.725.64.0
Memorandum
Industrial countries (former definition)2393.853.987.167.690.814.1
European Union1535.320.350.639.340.36.3
Euro area1127.615.840.231.231.34.9
Newly industrialized Asian economies45.73.312.29.58.61.3
Developing countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorld
Developing countries128100.036.8100.018.0100.077.7
Regional groups
Africa518.83.210.21.815.512.0
Sub-Sahara486.82.57.61.414.010.9
Excluding Nigeria and South
Africa463.91.44.00.710.38.0
Asia2757.521.245.98.367.152.1
China30.611.217.13.127.221.1
India12.44.64.00.721.416.6
Other Asia2514.65.424.84.518.514.4
Middle East and Europe1710.84.019.13.46.55.0
Western Hemisphere3322.98.424.84.510.98.5
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel189.03.317.73.27.05.4
Nonfuel11091.033.482.314.993.172.3
Manufactures964.623.752.19.463.449.3
Primary products426.62.46.61.210.88.4
Services, income, and private transfers353.31.23.90.75.13.9
Diversified2416.56.119.63.613.810.7
By external financing source
Net creditor countries92.91.111.12.00.90.7
Net debtor countries11997.235.889.316.299.277.1
Official financing455.72.15.10.913.510.5
Private financing4680.929.872.413.171.555.5
Diversified financing287.62.89.41.712.59.7
Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–985524.89.123.24.228.822.4
Other net debtor countries6172.326.665.811.970.354.6
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries405.11.94.60.813.210.3
Least developed countries464.41.62.80.513.610.5
Middle East and north Africa2110.33.817.63.217.65.8
Developing countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorldDeveloping countriesWorld
Countries in transition28100.05.8100.04.4100.06.8
Central and eastern Europel849.52.963.22.944.83.1
Excluding Belarus and Ukraine1639.92.357.32.529.929.9
Russia41.52.428.81.336.42.5
Transcaucasus and central Asia99.00.56.00.318.81.3

The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs.

A new classification, the euro area, has been added to the Statistical Appendix for some variables. The euro area comprises the countries that formed the European Economic and Monetary Union as of January 1, 1999; namely: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. Data shown are aggregates of country data and do not reflect official statistics at this time.

General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

Advanced Economies

The 28 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major industrial countries, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The current members of the European Union (15 countries) and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables under the heading “European Union” cover the current 15 members of the European Union for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
European UnionEuro AreaNewly Industrialized Asian EconomiesOther Countries
Major industrial countries
France

Germany

Italy

United Kingdom
France

Germany

Italy
Canada

Japan

United States
Other advanced economies
Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

Greece

Ireland
Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden
Austria

Belgium

Finland

Ireland

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain
Hong Kong SAR1

Korea

Singapore

Taiwan Province

of China

Australia

Iceland

Israel

New Zealand

Norway

Switzerland

On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Lander (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

Developing Countries

The group of developing countries (128 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies or as countries in transition, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.

The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) classification—Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—with one important exception. Because all of the developing countries in Europe except Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey are included in the group of countries in transition, the World Economic Outlook classification places these three countries in a combined Middle East and Europe region. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Sahara, sub-Sahara excluding Nigeria and South Africa, and Asia excluding China and India.

The developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. Included as “other groups” are currently the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), the least developed countries, and Middle East and north Africa (MENA). The detailed composition of developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables C through E.

Table C.Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
FuelManufacturesPrimary ProductsServices, Income, and Private TransfersDiversified Source of Export Earnings
Africa
Sub-SaharaAngola

Congo, Rep. of

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Nigeria
Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Central African Rep.

Chad

Congo, Democratic Rep. of

Côte d’lvoire

Gambia, The

Ghana

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Mauritania

Namibia

Niger

Somalia

Sudan

Swaziland

Tanzania

Togo

Zambia

Zimbabwe
Cape Verde

Comoros

Djibouti

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Lesotho

Mozambique, Rep. of

Rwanda

São Tomé and Principe

Seychelles

Uganda
Cameroon

Kenya

Mauritius

Senegal

Sierra Leone

South Africa
North AfricaAlgeriaMorocco

Tunisia
AsiaBrunei DarussalamBangladesh

China

India

Malaysia

Pakistan

Philippines

Thailand
Bhutan

Cambodia

Myanmar

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

Vanuatu

Vietnam
Fiji

Kiribati

Maldives

Marshall Islands

Micronesia,

Federated States of

Nepal

Samoa

Tonga
Afghanistan, Islamic

State of

Indonesia

Lao People’s

Democratic Rep.

Sri Lanka
Middle East and EuropeBahrain

Iran, Islamic Rep. of

Iraq

Kuwait

Libya

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates
TurkeyCyprus

Egypt

Jordan

Lebanon
Malta

Syrian Arab Rep.

Yemen, Rep. of
Western HemisphereTrinidad and Tobago

Venezuela
Brazil

Mexico
Belize

Bolivia

Chile

Guyana

Honduras

Nicaragua

Paraguay

Peru

Suriname
Antigua and Barbuda

Bahamas, The

Barbados

Dominican Rep.

Grenada

Haiti

Jamaica

Netherlands Antilles

Panama

St. Kitts and Nevis

St. Lucia

St. Vincent and the

Grenadines
Argentina

Colombia

Costa Rica

Dominica

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Uruguay
Table D.Developing Countries by Region and Main External Financing Source
Net Debtor Countries
By main external financing source
CountriesNet Creditor CountriesOfficial financingPrivate financingDiversified financing
Africa
Sub-Sahara
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Rep.
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Democratic Rep. of
Congo, Rep. of
Côte d’Ivoire
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mozambique, Rep. of
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
São Tomé and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
North Africa
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Asia
Afghanistan, Islamic State of
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Fiji
India
Indonesia
Kiribati
Lao People’s Democratic Rep.
Malaysia
Maldives
Marshall Islands
Micronesia, Federated States of
Myanmar
Nepal
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Tonga
Vanuatu
Vietnam
Middle East and Europe
Bahrain
Cyprus
Egypt
Iran, Islamic Rep. of
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Malta
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Rep.
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen, Rep. of
Western Hemisphere
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina
Bahamas, The
Barbados
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominica
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
El Salvador
Grenada
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Netherlands Antilles
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
St. Kitts and Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela
Table E.Other Developing Country Groups
Heavily Indebted Poor CountriesLeast Developed CountriesMiddle East and North Africa
Africa
Sub-Sahara
Angola
Benin
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Rep.
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Democratic Rep. of
Congo, Rep. of
Côte d’Ivoire
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Ethiopia
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mozambique, Rep. of
Niger
Rwanda
São Tomé and Principe
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sudan
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
North Africa
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Asia
Afghanistan, Islamic State of
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Cambodia
Kiribati
Lao People’s Democratic Rep.
Maldives
Myanmar
Nepal
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Vanuatu
Vietnam
Middle East and Europe
Bahrain
Egypt
Iran, Islamic Rep. of
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Rep.
United Arab Emirates
Yemen, Rep. of
Western Hemisphere
Bolivia
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Nicaragua

The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes among five categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3); manufactures (SITC 5 to 8, less 68); non-fuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68); services, income, and private transfers (exporters of services and recipients of income from abroad, including workers’ remittances); and diversified export earnings. Countries whose 1994–98 export earnings in any of the first four of these categories accounted for more than half of total export earnings are allocated to that group, while countries whose export earnings were not dominated by any one of these categories are classified as countries with diversified export earnings (see Table C).

The financial criteria first distinguish between net creditor and net debtor countries. Net creditor countries are defined as developing countries with positive net external assets at the end of 1998.4 Countries in the much larger net debtor group are differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by main source of external financing and by experience with debt servicing.5

Within the classification, main source of external financing, three subgroups, based on country estimates of the composition of external financing, are identified: countries relying largely on official financing, countries relying largely on private financing, and countries with diversified financing source. Net debtor countries are allocated to the first two of these subgroups according to whether their official financing, including official grants, or their private financing, including direct and portfolio investment, accounted for more than two-thirds of their total 1994–98 external financing. Countries that do not meet either of these two criteria are classified as countries with diversified financing source (see Table D).

The other groups of developing countries (see Table E) constitute the HIPCs, the least developed countries, and MENA countries. The first group comprises 40 of the countries (all except Nigeria) considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative.6 The group of least developed countries comprises 46 of the 47 developing countries classified as “least developed” by the United Nations (Tuvalu, not being an IMF member, is excluded). Finally, Middle East and north Africa, also referred to as the MENA countries, is a new World Economic Outlook group, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East and Europe regions. It is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Countries in Transition

The group of countries in transition (28 countries) comprises central and eastern European countries (including the Baltic countries), Russia, the other states of the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia. The transition country group is divided into three regional subgroups: central and eastern Europe, Russia, and Transcaucasus and central Asia. The detailed country composition is shown in Table F.

Table F.Countries in Transition by Region
Central and Eastern EuropeRussiaTranscaucasus and Central Asia
Albania

Belarus

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bulgaria

Croatia

Czech Rep.

Estonia

Hungary

Latvia
Lithuania

Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of

Moldova

Poland

Romania

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Ukraine

Yugoslavia, Federal Rep. of (Serbia/Montenegro)
RussiaArmenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyz Rep.

Mongolia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

One common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles. Another is that this transition involves the transformation of sizable industrial sectors whose capital stocks have proven largely obsolete. Although several other countries are also “in transition” from partially command-based economic systems toward market-based systems (including China, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Vietnam, and a number of African countries), most of these are largely rural, low-income economies for whom the principal challenge is one of economic development. These countries are therefore classified in the developing country group rather than in the group of countries in transition.

List of Tables

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

45. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

46. Developing Countries—Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators

Table 1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001
World3.33.52.02.33.73.64.14.12.63.44.74.2
Advanced economies3.12.92.11.43.32.73.23.42.43.24.23.2
United States2.93.73.12.74.02.73.64.44.44.25.23.2
European Union2.62.21.2-0.42.82.41.72.62.72.43.43.3
Japan4.11.11.00.30.61.55.01.6-2.50.21.41.8
Other advanced economies4.34.43.44.15.85.04.14.71.05.55.84.4
Developing countries4.35.66.36.46.76.16.55.73.53.85.65.7
Regional groups
Africa2.32.6-0.70.22.33.15.72.83.12.23.44.4
Asia6.97.59.49.39.69.08.36.54.15.96.76.6
Middle East and Europe3.33.75.73.80.64.34.55.13.10.84.74.1
Western Hemisphere1.83.43.64.15.01.73.65.42.20.34.34.5
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel2.32.86.01.10.32.83.34.12.31.04.43.5
Nonfuel4.65.96.47.07.46.56.85.93.64.05.85.9
By external financing source
Net creditor countries1.42.86.12.21.82.72.14.11.20.44.43.4
Net debtor countries4.45.76.36.56.86.26.65.83.53.95.75.7
Official financing2.73.71.81.72.55.25.44.03.83.44.35.0
Private financing4.86.16.97.57.76.66.96.13.64.05.96.0
Diversified financing2.64.04.82.43.54.45.24.23.03.24.94.2
Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–982.73.52.83.74.65.15.04.2-0.82.14.24.6
Other net debtor countries5.36.57.87.77.76.77.36.45.14.56.26.1
Countries in transition1.4-2.1-14.4-7.6-7.6-1.5-0.51.6-0.82.44.94.1
Central and eastern Europe-8.8-3.9-3.01.61.72.12.01.33.14.2
Excluding Belarus and Ukraine2.2-5.30.13.15.53.92.52.01.83.84.6
Russia-4.2-19.4-10.4-11.6-4.2-3.40.9-4.93.27.04.0
Transcaucasus and central Asia-2.4-14.1-11.0-11.5-5.01.32.62.54.65.34.5
Memorandum
Median growth rate
Advanced economies3.13.01.50.74.12.93.13.72.93.54.03.4
Developing countries3.23.93.83.03.84.34.64.43.53.34.14.5
Countries in transition1.30.1-11.4-7.8-1.91.93.13.73.93.04.04.4
Output per capita
Advanced economies2.52.31.40.82.62.12.52.81.82.73.62.7
Developing countries2.03.93.84.44.84.34.94.21.92.24.14.2
Countries in transition0.8-2.1-14.6-7.7-7.6-1.4-0.31.7-0.62.55.04.3
World growth based on market exchange rates3.02.70.81.13.02.83.53.42.02.94.23.5
Value of world output in billions of U.S. dollars
At market exchange rates16,85528,93524,04924,92926,45529,02829,82329,71929,51330,61431,77933,439
At purchasing power parities21,43637,10229,08930,46732,17033,99636,03238,12339,48941,34443,80246,507

Real GDP.

Real GDP.

Table 2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001199920002001
Real GDP
Advanced economies3.12.92.11.43.32.73.23.42.43.24.23.2
Major industrial countries3.02.72.01.33.02.33.03.22.52.93.92.93.43.72.9
United States2.93.73.12.74.02.73.64.44.44.25.23.25.04.13.0
Japan4.11.11.00.30.61.55.01.6-2.50.21.41.8-0.23.22.3
Germany2.71.72.2-1.12.31.70.81.42.11.62.93.32.43.23.7
France2.42.11.5-0.92.11.81.12.03.22.93.53.53.23.63.5
Italy2.31.70.8-0.92.22.91.11.81.51.43.13.02.33.23.0
United Kingdom22.72.60.12.34.42.82.63.52.62.13.12.82.83.12.4
Canada2.33.20.92.34.72.81.54.43.34.54.72.84.93.92.5
Other advanced economies3.73.72.41.94.64.33.74.22.04.75.14.2
Spain3.22.60.7-1.22.32.72.43.84.03.74.13.53.93.73.7
Netherlands2.53.02.00.83.22.33.03.83.73.63.93.5
Belgium2.22.21.6-1.53.02.51.03.52.72.53.93.0
Sweden1.92.2-1.4-2.24.13.71.12.03.03.84.43.4
Austria2.72.11.30.52.41.72.01.22.92.23.52.9
Denmark2.12.30.65.52.82.53.12.51.72.12.12.41.21.6
Finland2.23.2-3.3-1.14.03.84.06.35.54.05.04.03.53.46.4
Greece31.92.30.7-1.62.02.12.43.43.73.53.53.9
Portugal3.02.71.9-1.42.42.93.43.74.23.03.13.5
Ireland3.57.43.32.65.89.57.710.78.99.98.76.9
Luxembourg5.05.25.88.54.13.52.97.35.05.25.15.0
Switzerland1.81.2-0.1-0.50.50.50.31.72.11.73.02.62.72.62.5
Norway2.63.33.32.75.53.84.94.72.00.93.02.4
Israel3.64.56.83.48.06.84.62.92.22.24.04.0
Iceland2.42.7-4.10.63.70.95.65.34.74.54.02.1
Korea8.95.85.45.58.38.96.85.0-6.710.78.86.513.06.16.3
Australia2.94.12.63.85.04.44.03.95.24.44.03.44.03.93.0
Taiwan Province of China8.16.16.86.36.56.05.76.84.75.76.56.06.85.96.0
Hong Kong SAR6.14.16.36.15.43.94.55.0-5.12.98.04.89.13.36.5
Singapore7.17.46.512.711.48.07.58.40.45.47.95.97.16.57.3
New Zealand1.23.10.95.15.94.03.22.1-0.23.44.03.25.71.53.8
Memorandum
Industrial countries2.92.71.91.13.12.43.03.22.73.03.93.0
European Union2.62.21.2-0.42.82.41.72.62.72.43.43.3
Euro area2.62.11.5-0.82.42.31.52.32.72.43.53.4
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.15.86.06.37.67.36.25.8-2.37.87.96.110.56.16.6
Real total domestic demand
Advanced economies3.23.02.01.03.42.73.23.12.73.94.33.3
Major industrial countries3.02.92.01.13.12.23.13.03.23.64.13.14.03.93.0
United States3.04.23.13.34.42.53.74.75.55.26.03.55.94.63.6
Japan4.11.00.40.11.02.35.70.2-3.10.50.92.00.32.52.8
Germany2.51.72.8-1.02.2-1.00.30.62.42.42.23.32.22.83.5
France2.41.80.8-1.62.11.70.70.83.82.93.63.42.73.83.2
Italy2.61.30.9-5.11.72.00.92.52.92.52.22.71.82.52.5
United Kingdom2.83.00.82.23.41.83.13.74.63.73.53.44.03.12.9
Canada2.42.90.91.43.21.71.46.22.24.25.42.96.34.02.3
Other advanced economies3.93.42.30.94.64.53.63.60.84.95.04.1
Memorandum
Industrial countries3.02.81.80.83.12.43.03.13.43.64.13.2
European Union2.72.11.3-1.72.42.1-1.72.23.73.13.13.3
Euro area2.71.91.5-2.32.12.11.01.93.53.03.03.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.35.16.35.98.37.66.54.1-9.07.98.26.1

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

Based on revised national accounts for 1988 onward.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

Based on revised national accounts for 1988 onward.

Table 3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Private consumer expenditure
Advanced economies3.32.92.41.73.02.72.92.72.83.93.72.8
Major industrial countries3.12.72.31.72.72.42.62.53.23.73.52.5
United States3.33.72.93.43.83.03.23.64.75.35.12.7
Japan3.81.32.11.21.92.12.90.5-0.51.20.61.0
Germany2.71.82.80.21.02.21.00.72.02.62.23.2
France2.11.60.9-0.41.21.21.30.23.42.33.13.1
Italy2.71.51.9-3.71.51.71.23.02.31.72.42.6
United Kingdom3.13.00.52.92.91.73.63.94.04.33.22.6
Canada2.62.81.81.83.12.12.54.42.93.53.62.3
Other advanced economies3.73.53.11.74.03.83.93.51.54.84.64.2
Memorandum
Industrial countries3.12.72.21.42.72.42.62.53.23.73.52.6
European Union2.62.11.7-0.41.71.81.92.03.13.03.03.1
Euro area2.61.92.0-1.01.41.81.61.63.02.82.93.2
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.15.76.87.18.16.96.55.3-4.27.57.36.1
Public consumption
Advanced economies2.61.51.80.80.90.91.51.31.51.72.12.1
Major industrial countries2.31.31.50.60.80.71.11.01.31.72.22.2
United States2.71.10.4-0.40.20.51.81.52.12.72.2
Japan2.31.92.02.42.43.31.91.51.51.31.21.8
Germany1.11.25.00.12.41.51.8-0.90.5-0.10.81.3
France2.71.93.84.60.72.31.70.72.51.21.2
Italy2.40.40.6-0.2-0.8-2.11.10.90.70.81.71.4
United Kingdom1.21.90.5-0.81.41.61.7-1.41.13.04.77.4
Canada2.60.21.00.1-1.2-0.5-1.4-1.21.61.31.60.9
Other advanced economies3.62.13.02.01.31.83.42.32.51.71.81.4
Memorandum
Industrial countries2.41.41.60.70.90.81.11.21.41.82.12.1
European Union2.11.42.61.11.00.81.60.51.21.61.82.3
Euro area2.41.43.21.41.00.51.60.91.21.31.41.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies6.22.96.23.71.02.07.53.32.5-0.41.61.8
Gross fixed capital formation
Advanced economies3.64.61.80.14.74.26.35.45.05.87.15.3
Major industrial countries3.34.62.20.44.33.46.65.35.76.27.15.2
United States2.67.75.25.77.35.48.48.810.79.110.76.3
Japan5.30.3-1.5-2.0-0.81.711.1-0.8-7.4-1.21.13.4
Germany2.71.64.5-4.54.0-0.7-0.80.63.03.32.74.0
France2.92.2-1.4-6.41.62.20.56.17.36.66.7
Italy2.11.5-1.4-10.90.16.03.61.24.14.45.73.8
United Kingdom4.33.9-0.70.83.62.94.97.510.16.11.33.1
Canada2.45.2-1.3-2.77.4-1.95.815.43.410.111.75.9
Other advanced economies4.74.3-1.36.47.55.26.02.44.27.15.9
Memorandum
Industrial countries3.34.51.6-0.34.43.96.25.55.96.16.85.1
European Union3.22.6-0.3-5.72.63.72.33.46.25.54.54.7
Euro area3.02.30.2-6.82.33.41.62.45.35.35.14.9
Newly industrialized Asian economies9.85.35.96.99.89.87.44.3-9.30.411.18.8
Final domestic demand
Advanced economies3.22.92.11.12.92.63.42.92.83.94.23.3
Major industrial countries3.12.82.01.12.62.23.32.73.23.94.13.0
United States3.14.12.83.13.82.93.74.35.45.65.93.4
Japan4.11.00.90.31.12.15.30.1-2.50.50.81.8
Germany2.41.63.6-0.92.01.40.70.31.92.22.03.1
France2.41.81.1-0.41.11.11.30.63.23.33.43.4
Italy2.51.31.0-4.50.81.71.72.22.42.03.02.7
United Kingdom2.82.90.31.82.71.93.43.54.54.43.13.6
Canada2.52.71.00.62.80.82.25.22.84.45.02.8
Other advanced economies3.93.42.31.24.14.34.13.81.54.04.94.3
Memorandum
Industrial countries3.02.81.90.82.62.33.22.83.33.94.03.1
European Union2.62.11.5-1.21.71.91.92.03.33.33.13.3
Euro area2.61.91.9-1.71.51.81.61.73.13.03.13.2
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.35.26.16.57.77.47.14.6-5.44.27.86.5
Stock building1
Advanced economies-0.10.5-0.20.2-0.10.10.1
Major industrial countries0.1-0.10.5-0.1-0.10.30.1-0.20.10.1
United States-0.10.10.30.7-0.50.40.2-0.40.10.1
Japan0.1-0.5-0.1-0.20.20.40.1-0.60.10.10.3
Germany0.1-0.7-0.10.30.3-0.50.20.40.20.20.2
France0.1-0.3-1.10.90.6-0.60.20.5-0.40.3
Italy0.1-0.1-0.70.80.2-0.70.30.60.4-0.7
United Kingdom0.10.50.40.7-0.40.30.1-0.70.4-0.1
Canada-0.10.2-0.10.80.30.9-0.81.0-0.5-0.20.40.1
Other advanced economies0.1-0.30.50.3-0.4-0.2-0.70.70.1-0.1
Memorandum
Industrial countries0.1-0.1-0.10.5-0.20.30.1-0.20.10.1
European Union0.1-0.2-0.40.60.3-0.50.20.3-0.2
Euro area0.1-0.3-0.60.60.3-0.50.20.40.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies-0.10.2-0.50.60.3-0.5-0.6-3.5290.3-0.4
Foreign balance1
Advanced economies-0.1-0.10.3-0.10.10.3-0.4-0.6-0.2-0.1
Major industrial countries-0.1-0.20.20.1-0.10.1-0.8-0.9-0.3-0.2
United States-0.1-0.5-0.1-0.6-0.40.1-0.1-0.3-1.3-1.2-1.0-0.3
Japan0.10.60.2-0.3-0.8-0.51.40.5-0.30.6-0.2
Germany0.10.1-0.6-0.10.10.50.8-0.3-0.80.80.1
France0.30.70.70.41.2-0.50.10.2
Italy-0.20.4-0.14.30.61.00.2-0.6-1.3-1.01.00.3
United Kingdom-0.4-0.5-0.80.10.91.0-0.5-0.3-2.0-1.6-0.6-0.8
Canada-0.10.30.40.91.51.00.2-1.81.10.4-0.5-0.1
Other advanced economies0.40.11.0-0.1-0.10.10.81.20.20.40.2
Memorandum
Industrial countries-0.1-0.10.10.30.10.2-0.8-0.8-0.2-0.1
European Union-0.10.1-0.11.20.40.30.20.4-0.8-0.60.3
Euro area-0.10.21.50.30.30.40.5-0.6-0.50.50.2
Newly industrialized Asian economies0.41.0-0.60.6-0.70.2-0.11.96.51.40.70.5

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

Table 4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(Percent)
Ten-Year Averages1
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Unemployment rate
Advanced economies7.06.77.17.57.47.07.06.86.76.35.95.7
Major industrial countries6.96.57.17.27.06.66.76.46.26.05.75.8
United States27.05.47.56.96.15.65.44.94.54.24.14.4
Japan2.53.72.22.52.93.13.33.44.14.75.05.3
Germany7.38.16.37.68.27.98.69.59.08.37.97.6
France9.511.210.311.612.311.712.412.511.711.39.88.8
Italy310.511.110.710.111.111.611.611.711.811.410.710.1
United Kingdom49.06.69.610.29.28.07.35.54.74.33.94.0
Canada9.79.011.211.410.49.49.69.18.37.66.66.5
Other advanced economies7.27.67.48.78.88.28.17.88.17.36.25.7
Spain18.619.218.422.724.222.922.220.818.815.914.012.6
Netherlands8.25.05.46.57.67.16.65.54.13.22.32.0
Belgium9.48.97.38.810.09.99.79.49.59.08.37.7
Sweden2.56.65.38.28.07.78.18.06.55.64.64.0
Austria3.44.03.44.03.83.94.34.44.74.43.53.5
Denmark9.28.410.912.011.910.18.67.86.45.65.45.5
Finland4.912.611.716.416.615.414.612.611.410.39.08.2
Greece7.610.28.79.79.69.19.89.710.811.711.511.3
Portugal7.05.54.15.56.87.27.36.75.04.44.14.0
Ireland15.19.915.215.514.112.111.59.87.45.64.54.0
Luxembourg1.52.71.62.12.73.03.33.33.32.92.72.3
Switzerland0.73.62.64.54.74.24.75.23.92.72.01.9
Norway3.44.25.95.95.44.74.13.32.43.23.63.6
Israel7.18.411.210.07.86.96.77.78.58.98.48.2
Iceland1.13.33.04.44.85.04.32.82.91.91.81.8
Korea3.33.52.42.82.42.02.02.66.86.34.23.5
Australia8.18.610.810.99.88.58.68.68.07.26.76.6
Taiwan Province of China2.12.21.51.51.61.82.62.72.72.92.52.3
Hong Kong SAR2.53.22.02.01.93.22.82.24.76.14.03.1
Singapore3.32.72.72.72.62.72.01.83.23.52.92.5
New Zealand6.07.410.39.58.26.36.16.77.56.86.46.4
Memorandum
Industrial countries7.37.17.58.07.97.47.47.16.86.46.06.0
European Union9.39.69.310.611.010.510.610.39.58.88.07.5
Euro area9.710.49.410.811.611.211.511.510.89.99.08.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies2.93.12.12.42.22.12.22.65.45.23.73.1
Growth in employment
Advanced economies1.20.91.11.11.01.51.11.31.30.9
Major industrial countries1.20.80.10.11.00.80.81.51.01.01.00.7
United States1.61.50.71.52.31.51.42.21.51.51.20.6
Japan1.30.11.10.20.10.10.51.1-0.6-0.8-0.20.2
Germany0.70.20.2-1.4-0.20.1-0.3-0.20.91.11.00.7
France0.30.9-1.1-1.00.90.71.01.81.82.61.9
Italy0.5-0.2-1.1-4.1-1.6-0.60.50.41.11.31.31.0
United Kingdom0.70.3-2.8-0.70.80.91.01.91.50.70.2
Canada1.31.8-0.70.82.01.90.82.32.62.82.92.5
Other advanced economies1.51.3-0.2-0.41.32.21.51.61.22.12.01.6
Memorandum
Industrial countries1.10.9-0.2-0.20.91.00.91.51.41.21.20.8
European Union0.70.5-1.2-1.8-0.10.70.61.02.01.61.61.1
Euro area0.70.6-0.8-2.1-0.30.60.50.92.01.91.91.4
Newly industrialized Asian economies2.61.41.91.52.82.31.71.7-2.11.51.61.5
Growth in real per capita GDP
Advanced economies2.52.31.40.82.62.12.52.81.82.73.62.7
Major industrial countries2.32.11.30.62.41.72.42.61.92.43.42.5
United States1.92.81.91.53.11.82.63.43.33.44.42.4
Japan3.50.90.70.41.24.81.3-2.81.31.6
Germany2.41.41.5-1.82.1-1.80.5-1.82.1-1.82.93.2
France2.01.71.1-1.31.61.40.71.62.82.53.23.2
Italy2.11.81.10.51.92.71.01.61.51.53.23.1
United Kingdom2.42.5-0.32.14.02.42.24.62.51.92.92.7
Canada1.12.1-0.21.23.51.7-0.63.33.33.53.71.9
Other advanced economies3.13.01.71.33.83.43.03.51.34.04.53.6
Memorandum
Industrial countries2.32.21.20.52.41.82.32.72.22.53.42.5
European Union2.32.00.8-0.42.52.11.42.52.62.33.33.2
Euro area2.31.91.1-0.82.12.01.22.12.62.33.33.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies6.94.65.05.36.25.85.04.3-3.66.66.85.0

Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

New series starting in 1993, reflecting revisions in the labor force surveys and the definition of unemployment to bring data in line with those of other advanced economies.

Unemployment rate is on a claimant count basis.

Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the new survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

New series starting in 1993, reflecting revisions in the labor force surveys and the definition of unemployment to bring data in line with those of other advanced economies.

Unemployment rate is on a claimant count basis.

Table 5.Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Developing countries4.35.66.36.46.76.16.55.73.53.85.65.7
Regional groups
Africa2.32.6-0.7-0.72.33.15.72.83.12.23.44.4
Sub-Sahara2.02.6-1.10.61.83.95.23.42.42.13.34.3
Excluding Nigeria and South Africa2.32.9-1.2-0.11.54.75.54.03.52.83.54.6
Asia6.97.59.49.39.69.08.36.54.15.96.76.6
Excluding China and India5.04.56.56.26.97.56.93.7-5.03.14.85.1
Middle East and Europe3.33.75.73.80.64.34.55.13.10.84.74.1
Western Hemisphere1.83.43.64.15.01.73.65.42.20.34.34.5
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel2.32.86.01.10.32.83.34.12.31.04.43.5
Manufactures5.56.77.58.28.37.27.36.44.85.16.56.3
Nonfuel primary products2.24.63.63.95.26.75.75.43.12.34.55.5
Services, income, and private transfers3.94.30.14.03.84.95.25.24.75.34.74.8
Diversified2.93.54.84.75.84.05.74.4-1.6-0.43.24.3
By external financing source
Net creditor countries1.42.86.12.21.82.72.14.11.20.44.43.4
Net debtor countries4.45.76.36.56.86.26.65.83.53.95.75.7
Official financing2.73.71.81.72.55.25.44.03.83.44.35.0
Private financing4.86.16.97.57.76.66.96.13.64.05.96.0
Diversified financing2.64.04.82.43.54.45.24.23.03.24.94.2
Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–982.73.52.83.74.65.15.04.2-0.82.14.24.6
Other net debtor countries5.36.57.87.77.76.77.36.45.14.56.26.1
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries2.34.01.41.72.86.16.24.93.73.44.35.2
Least developed countries2.23.91.01.32.36.25.64.44.04.04.85.3
Middle East and north Africa2.93.54.71.92.52.64.63.63.72.84.63.9
Memorandum
Real per capita GDP
Developing countries2.03.93.84.44.84.34.94.21.92.24.14.2
Regional groups
Africa-0.5-0.5-3.1-2.3-0.21.13.1-0.2-0.2-0.21.02.0
Asia5.06.17.67.68.07.46.75.13.04.65.45.4
Middle East and Europe0.11.1-0.71.5-2.0-1.15.53.21.0-1.42.62.2
Western Hemisphere-0.31.71.52.23.21.11.04.2-0.1-1.22.73.0
Table 6.Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
Average
1982–9119821993199419941994199419981999
Africa2.3-0.70.22.33.15.72.83.12.2
Algeria2.21.6-2.1-0.93.83.81.15.13.3
Angola2.7-5.8-24.01.37.17.96.23.12.7
Benin1.34.03.54.44.65.55.74.54.9
Botswana10.83.02.03.44.76.87.66.27.3
Burkina Faso3.52.5-0.81.24.06.04.86.25.8
Burundi3.80.7-5.9-3.7-7.3-8.40.44.5-0.8
Cameroon1.3-3.1-3.2-2.53.35.05.15.04.4
Cape Verde2.0-6.312.711.53.83.84.77.67.9
Central African Republic0.7-6.20.15.07.6-4.65.74.83.4
Chad6.62.4-2.15.71.32.44.56.0-0.7
Comoros1.38.53.0-5.3-3.9-0.41.0
Congo, Dem. Rep. of-0.3-10.5-13.5-3.90.70.9-8.2-3.5-14.0
Congo, Rep. of5.82.6-1.0-5.54.04.3-0.63.7-0.6
Côte d’Ivoire0.6-0.2-0.22.07.16.86.84.56.8
Djibouti0.1-0.2-3.9-2.9-3.6-3.70.70.81.3
Equatorial Guinea1.610.76.35.114.329.171.222.015.1
Eritrea-2.59.82.96.87.93.93.0
Ethiopia1.3-3.712.01.66.210.65.2-0.56.3
Gabon2.7-3.32.43.47.05.14.33.7-9.6
Gambia, The4.74.46.13.8-3.45.35.44.15.3
Ghana2.93.95.03.24.04.64.24.74.4
Guinea3.64.64.34.44.64.84.53.24.5
Guinea-Bissau2.91.12.13.24.44.65.4-28.18.7
Kenya4.0-0.80.42.64.44.12.12.11.5
Lesotho4.94.63.73.75.99.44.6-3.80.5
Liberia
Madagascar0.91.22.1172.13.73.94.7
Malawi3.6-7.39.7-10.316.77.33.83.34.5
Mali2.18.4-2.42.26.42.16.83.41.1
Mauritania4.41.75.54.64.54.74.83.54.1
Mauritius6.44.86.74.33.55.15.55.65.4
Morocco4.8-4.0-1.010.4-6.612.2-2.26.8-0.7
Mozambique, Rep. of0.1-8.18.77.54.37.111.112.08.8
Namibia0.87.2-1.66.23.22.12.63.02.9
Niger0.2-6.51.44.02.63.43.38.32.5
Nigeria3.52.62.2-0.62.66.43.11.91.1
Rwanda1.56.6-8.3-49.532.815.812.89.55.9
São Tôme and Principe-0.30.71.12.22.01.51.02.52.5
Senegal2.72.2-2.22.95.25.15.05.75.1
Seychelles4.36.96.5-0.8-0.64.74.32.32.0
Sierra Leone-0.2-9.60.13.5-10.05.0-17.6-0.8-8.1
Somalia
South Africa0.9-2.11.23.23.14.22.50.61.2
Sudan2.63.03.81.88.98.26.65.15.9
Swaziland6.51.33.33.53.03.64.02.73.1
Tanzania3.40.61.21.63.64.53.53.34.6
Togo1.4-4.0-15.115.07.89.64.2-2.22.4
Tunisia3.47.82.23.32.47.05.45.06.2
Uganda3.43.28.65.610.97.74.85.57.8
Zambia0.22.0-0.1-13.3-2.36.53.5-2.22.4
Zimbabwe3.7-9.01.17.1-0.68.73.72.5-0.1
Asia6.99.49.39.69.08.36.54.15.9
Afghanistan, Islamic State of
Bangladesh4.44.84.34.54.85.05.35.05.2
Bhutan7.04.45.05.16.96.05.74.66.5
Brunei Darussalam-1.10.51.83.03.64.11.02.5
Cambodia4.87.57.07.77.01.01.04.0
China9.514.213.512.610.59.68.87.87.1
Fiji2.04.83.54.22.43.33.64.04.5
India5.44.25.06.77.67.14.76.36.4
Indonesia5.57.27.37.58.28.04.5-13.00.3
Kiribati1.0-1.60.87.26.52.63.36.12.5
Lao P.D. Republic4.57.05.98.17.16.96.55.06.5
Malaysia6.38.99.99.29.810.07.3-7.45.6
Maldives10.26.36.26.67.26.56.26.06.0
Marshall Islands0.15.42.7-1.9-13.1-5.3-4.3-1.8
Micronesia, Fed. States of-1.25.7-0.91.3-0.5-3.8-2.8-2.0
Myanmar0.69.75.96.87.27.07.07.07.0
Nepal4.64.13.88.23.55.35.03.03.9
Pakistan6.07.81.93.94.14.91.02.62.7
Papua New Guinea2.311.816.61.9-2.62.9-2.41.43.8
Philippines1.30.32.14.44.85.85.2-0.63.3
Samoa13.74.11.7-0.16.86.11.61.32.5
Solomon Islands1.79.52.05.410.53.5-2.30.5-0.5
Sri Lanka4.24.36.95.65.53.86.44.74.3
Thailand8.18.18.49.08.95.9-1.7-10.24.2
Tonga2.30.33.75.04.8-1.4-4.4-1.5
Vanuatu3.1-0.74.51.32.30.40.66.0-2.5
Vietnam5.98.68.18.89.59.38.23.54.2
Middle East and Europe3.35.73.80.64.34.55.13.10.8
Bahrain3.56.712.9-0.23.94.13.14.82.9
Cyprus6.09.70.75.96.11.92.45.04.5
Egypt5.4-4.22.94.24.54.95.55.66.0
Iran, Islamic Republic of3.46.12.10.92.95.53.42.22.5
Iraq
Jordan2.017.05.87.63.91.01.31.71.6
Kuwait-5.777.434.28.41.21.22.32.0-2.4
Lebanon-2.84.57.08.06.54.04.03.0-1.0
Libya0.6-4.2-4.6-2.2-1.61.21.3-3.02.0
Malta4.16.74.05.07.33.23.73.13.5
Oman7.58.56.13.84.82.96.22.92.5
Qatar-1.59.7-0.62.32.94.824.012.37.6
Saudi Arabia1.22.8-0.60.50.51.42.71.6-1.0
Syrian Arab Republic1.910.65.07.75.84.41.87.6-1.2
Turkey4.85.07.7-4.78.16.97.63.1-5.0
United Arab Emirates-0.13.85.18.419.04.88.10.20.5
Yemen, Republic of4.92.9-0.58.65.65.22.53.3
Western Hemisphere1.83.64.15.01.73.65.42.20.3
Antigua and Barbuda6.70.85.16.2-5.06.15.63.93.2
Argentina0.410.36.35.8-2.85.58.13.9-3.1
Bahamas, The2.9-2.01.70.90.34.23.33.06.0
Barbados0.7-5.70.84.02.94.12.64.82.9
Belize5.110.23.31.83.32.03.64.54.5
Bolivia0.61.64.34.74.74.44.44.72.5
Brazil2.1-0.54.95.94.22.73.6-0.11.0
Chile3.212.37.05.710.67.47.43.4-1.1
Colombia3.44.05.45.85.22.13.40.5-4.5
Costa Rica2.79.06.34.94.00.35.88.08.4
Dominica4.32.11.71.42.32.10.64.83.5
Dominican Republic2.08.03.04.34.87.38.27.38.3
Ecuador2.23.62.04.42.32.03.40.4-7.3
El Salvador1.47.47.46.06.41.84.33.22.0
Grenada5.81.1-1.23.33.12.94.25.86.2
Guatemala1.24.83.94.04.93.04.15.13.5
Guyana-1.97.88.28.55.07.96.2-1.73.0
Haiti0.3-13.2-2.4-8.34.42.71.13.02.0
Honduras2.55.66.2-1.34.13.65.12.9-1.9
Jamaica2.81.61.51.00.2-1.5-1.7-0.5
Mexico1.43.62.04.4-6.25.26.84.93.5
Netherlands Antilles0.13.70.32.4-2.43.03.03.0
Nicaragua-1.90.4-0.23.34.25.04.9426.7
Panama1.48.25.52.91.82.84.54.13.2
Paraguay2.81.84.13.14.71.33.53.54.0
Peru-1.0-1.66.413.17.32.56.80.33.8
St. Kitts and Nevis5.63.55.05.53.76.16.63.62.0
St. Lucia6.67.12.02.14.11.42.12.93.1
St. Vincent and the Grenadines6.25.92.3-2.08.31.23.15.74.0
Suriname-0.84.0-9.5-5.47.16.75.61.95.0
Trinidad and Tobago-2.6-1.7-1.43.64.03.83.14.86.8
Uruguay0.67.92.77.3-1.55.44.94.6-3.2
Venezuela1.96.10.3-2.44.0-0.26.4-0.1-7.2

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

Table 7.Countries in Transition: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
Average
1982–9119921993199419951996199719981999
Central and eastern Europe-8.8-3.9-3.01.61.72.12.01.3
Albania-2.6-7.29.69.48.99.1-7.07.97.2
Belarus-9.7-7.0-12.6-10.42.810.511.6-2.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina32.485.839.912.88.6
Bulgaria0.3-7.3-1.51.72.2-10.9-6.93.52.4
Croatia-8.05.95.75.96.82.5-0.3
Czech Republic0.12.25.94.8-1.0-2.2-0.2
Czechoslovakia, former-8.5
Estonia-21.6-8.2-2.04.33.910.64.7-1.1
Hungary-0.4-3.1-0.62.91.51.34.64.94.5
Latvia-35.2-16.10.6-0.83.38.63.90.1
Lithuania-21.3-16.2-9.83.34.77.35.1-4.1
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of-7.5-1.8-1.11.21.42.92.7
Moldova-29.7-1.2-31.2-1.4-7.81.3-6.5-4.4
Poland0.22.63.85.27.06.06.84.84.1
Romania-0.8-8.81.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.2
Slovak Republic-3.74.96.96.66.54.41.9
Slovenia2.85.34.13.54.63.94.9
Ukraine-17.0-14.2-22.9-12.2-10.0-3.0-1.9-0.4
Yugoslavia, former-2.3-34.0
Russia-19.4-10.4-11.6-4.2-3.40.9-4.93.2
Transcaucasus and central Asia-14.1-11.0-11.5-5.01.32.62.54.6
Armenia-52.6-14.15.46.95.93.37.23.3
Azerbaijan-22.7-23.1-19.7-11.81.35.810.07.4
Georgia-44.9-29.3-10.42.610.510.72.93.3
Kazakhstan-5.3-9.2-12.6-8.20.51.7-1.91.7
Kyrgyz Republic-13.9-15.5-19.8-5.87.19.92.13.6
Mongolia3.5-9.5-3.02.36.32.44.03.53.3
Tajikistan-28.9-11.1-21.4-12.5-4.41.75.33.7
Turkmenistan-5.3-10.0-17.3-7.2-6.7-11.35.016.0
Uzbekistan-11.1-2.3-4.2-0.91.62.54.34.4

Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

Table 8.Summary of Inflation(Percent)
Ten-Year Averages
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001
GDP deflators
Advanced economies4.92.03.22.72.22.31.81.71.41.01.51.8
United States3.72.02.42.42.12.21.91.91.31.52.22.3
European Union6.12.54.43.52.73.12.51.92.01.51.61.8
Japan1.8-0.11.70.60.2-0.6-1.40.30.3-0.9-1.10.4
Other advanced economies8.72.53.83.83.33.42.92.21.50.32.21.6
Consumer prices
Advanced economies4.92.33.53.12.62.62.42.11.51.42.32.1
United States4.12.63.03.02.62.82.92.31.62.23.22.6
European Union5.72.54.63.83.02.92.51.81.41.42.11.9
Japan1.90.61.71.20.7-0.10.11.70.6-0.3-0.20.5
Other advanced economies8.82.83.83.43.33.83.22.42.61.02.32.5
Developing countries45.121.042.848.754.723.215.39.710.16.66.25.2
Regional groups
Africa19.525.247.139.054.835.230.213.69.111.812.78.6
Asia9.77.68.610.816.013.28.34.77.52.42.43.3
Middle East and Europe21.224.826.526.633.239.226.925.425.320.417.49.5
Western Hemisphere163.050.2150.3194.6200.336.021.613.410.29.38.97.0
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel13.621.422.126.231.842.932.016.214.712.310.99.4
Nonfuel50.521.045.751.857.621.313.69.09.76.15.84.8
By external financing source
Net creditor countries2.73.54.25.53.95.73.81.81.71.23.14.2
Net debtor countries47.121.644.550.556.823.915.69.910.46.86.35.2
Official financing33.724.759.237.464.130.222.811.38.111.110.57.1
Private financing53.721.746.855.761.021.813.89.210.05.75.34.4
Diversified financing22.520.024.528.325.833.428.215.013.611.511.510.6
Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–9897.352.8152.3196.9217.640.120.310.916.712.410.37.7
Other net debtor countries27.411.014.114.118.618.113.99.58.34.95.04.4
Countries in transition15.5117.9788.9634.4274.1133.542.427.321.843.818.312.5
Central and eastern Europe74.7278.4366.9151.772.232.138.418.720.618.811.5
Excluding Belarus and Ukraine34.2104.885.247.524.823.341.417.011.011.87.5
Russia155.31,734.7874.7307.4197.447.614.727.785.918.613.8
Transcaucasus and central Asia192.0949.21,428.71,800.7265.580.932.913.015.414.412.8
Memorandum
Median inflation rate
Advanced economies5.42.23.23.02.42.42.11.71.61.42.22.4
Developing countries9.47.210.09.510.610.17.46.75.73.93.74.0
Countries in transition11.9155.5839.1472.3132.139.324.114.89.88.08.96.9
Table 9.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001199920002001
GDP deflators
Advanced economies4.92.03.22.72.22.31.81.71.41.01.51.8
Major industrial countries4.01.72.82.31.81.91.51.61.21.01.41.80.9
United States3.72.02.42.42.12.21.91.91.31.52.22.31.52.62.3
Japan1.8-0.11.70.60.2-0.6-1.40.30.3-0.9-1.10.4-1.4-0.50.7
Germany2.81.95.03.72.52.01.00.81.10.90.41.50.41.61.1
France5.31.32.02.31.71.61.41.40.90.30.60.80.30.80.8
Italy9.53.24.53.93.55.05.32.42.71.51.71.71.41.71.6
United Kingdom5.92.74.02.71.52.53.32.93.02.52.02.32.31.82.5
Canada4.21.51.31.51.12.31.71.0-0.61.63.22.03.13.01.9
Other advanced economies8.83.05.04.43.83.92.92.42.31.02.31.9
Spain8.93.76.94.33.85.03.22.12.33.13.42.5
Netherlands1.72.12.31.92.31.81.22.01.91.33.13.1
Belgium4.11.83.63.71.81.81.21.31.60.90.91.3
Sweden7.91.71.02.62.43.51.41.21.30.51.71.8
Austria3.32.04.32.82.82.31.31.60.60.61.51.7
Denmark5.22.22.91.41.71.82.51.62.12.73.11.9
Finland6.11.80.92.32.04.1-0.22.13.10.71.61.4
Greece18.47.814.814.511.211.27.36.74.92.93.12.5
Portugal16.95.010.67.06.17.43.53.24.33.22.23.0
Ireland5.64.02.85.21.72.72.33.55.66.25.54.7
Luxembourg3.22.21.30.84.94.31.73.31.51.11.31.4
Switzerland3.71.22.72.71.61.10.4-0.10.20.71.41.4
Norway5.22.9-0.42.1-0.23.14.33.0-0.86.612.6-0.2
Israel80.88.512.311.612.29.411.48.86.76.42.53.8
Iceland28.63.54.42.82.02.92.03.55.84.04.33.5
Korea6.94.17.67.17.77.13.93.15.1-1.61.70.1
Australia6.81.41.41.51.01.52.01.40.41.12.21.6
Taiwan Province of China2.32.13.93.51.91.92.71.92.1-0.71.22.7
Hong Kong SAR8.03.19.78.56.92.65.95.80.9-5.6-4.72.0
Singapore2.51.21.53.32.92.61.30.7-1.8-1.31.42.1
New Zealand8.91.91.72.61.52.81.91.40.12.83.9
Memorandum
Industrial countries4.51.93.02.51.92.11.61.61.31.21.61.8
European Union6.12.54.43.52.73.12.51.92.01.51.61.8
Euro area5.82.34.33.52.73.02.31.61.71.31.41.7
Newly industrialized Asian economies5.43.26.45.95.54.73.62.93.1-1.80.81.3
Consumer prices
Advanced economies4.92.33.53.12.62.62.42.11.51.42.32.1
Major industrial countries4.22.23.22.82.22.32.22.01.31.42.21.91.9221.9
United States4.12.63.03.02.62.82.92.31.62.23.22.62.63.12.5
Japan1.90.61.71.20.7-0.10.11.70.6-0.3-0.20.5-1.00.30.4
Germany22.32.15.04.52.71.71.21.50.60.71.71.51.11.51.5
France5.31.52.42.11.71.82.11.30.70.61.51.1-1.01.31.2
Italy8.53.25.34.64.15.23.91.71.71.72.51.62.02.21.6
United Kingdom35.62.84.73.02.42.83.02.82.72.32.02.42.22.22.5
Canada5.31.61.51.80.21.91.61.61.01.72.32.12.42.32.0
Other advanced economies8.43.14.84.24.13.83.22.32.41.32.42.6
Memorandum
Industrial countries4.62.23.43.02.42.42.22.01.31.52.32.0
European Union5.72.54.63.83.02.92.51.81.41.42.11.9
Euro area5.42.44.43.83.02.82.31.61.11.22.11.7
Newly industrialized Asian economies4.23.75.94.65.74.64.33.44.51.42.6

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Based on the revised consumer price index for united Germany introduced in September 1995.

Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Based on the revised consumer price index for united Germany introduced in September 1995.

Retail price index excluding mortgage interest.

Table 10.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Hourly earnings
Advanced economies6.63.75.94.03.43.13.03.43.43.53.43.5
Major Industrial countries5.63.45.43.62.92.72.43.33.63.23.53.3
United States4.63.64.62.82.82.11.33.75.84.94.34.0
Japan4.02.04.62.82.42.41.73.11.0-0.51.31.7
Germany4.93.89.56.82.14.04.31.11.72.42.73.1
France6.83.04.83.93.71.62.63.22.62.63.22.3
Italy11.23.56.75.43.14.75.84.6-2.02.42.52.5
United Kingdom9.94.76.64.75.04.44.34.24.64.04.84.1
Canada5.02.33.52.11.61.43.10.92.20.14.53.4
Other advanced economies10.85.08.15.95.95.25.44.02.94.63.34.3
Memorandum
Industrial countries6.03.55.53.73.02.92.63.33.53.23.53.4
European Union7.93.97.25.43.63.94.13.22.23.03.43.3
Euro area7.43.77.35.53.13.63.92.81.62.73.13.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies13.27.414.19.211.47.810.15.51.08.02.05.3
Productivity
Advanced economies3.43.73.22.14.93.83.44.42.34.74.73.1
Major industrial countries3.33.63.31.84.63.63.54.62.34.64.83.1
United States3.04.55.12.23.13.94.05.05.36.46.24.0
Japan3.21.7-3.7-1.03.34.73.84.8-4.23.54.42.1
Germany3.74.54.22.98.74.55.47.04.52.52.42.8
France3.84.14.40.49.03.92.96.44.03.33.53.3
Italy3.12.74.40.66.03.63.72.7-1.91.14.52.2
United Kingdom5.72.26.44.94.5-0.5-1.00.5-0.33.62.31.4
Canada2.32.04.16.34.91.10.8-0.3-3.41.93.71.3
Other advanced economies3.43.82.73.46.34.33.03.72.55.04.32.9
Memorandum
Industrial countries3.23.53.22.04.83.53.34.32.34.24.42.9
European Union3.83.44.12.77.53.32.84.12.22.42.92.4
Euro area3.53.73.72.38.04.03.84.82.62.23.02.5
Newly industrialized Asian economies7.86.74.23.56.48.06.55.92.314.310.55.9
Unit labor costs
Advanced economies3.22.71.9-1.4-0.6-0.4-0.91.2-1.1-1.20.4
Major industrial countries2.2-0.22.11.8-1.6-0.9-1.1-1.21.4-1.3-1.30.2
United States1.6-0.8-0.50.6-0.2-1.7-2.6-1.30.5-1.4-1.8
Japan0.80.38.63.8-0.9-2.2-2.0-1.65.4-3.9-3.0-0.3
Germany1.1-0.75.13.8-6.1-0.4-1.1-5.5-2.7-0.10.30.3
France2.9-1.00.33.6-4.9-2.3-0.3-3.0-1.3-0.7-0.3-1.0
Italy7.80.82.24.8-2.71.12.01.8-0.21.3-1.90.3
United Kingdom3.92.50.2-0.20.64.95.33.74.90.42.52.6
Canada2.60.3-0.5-3.9-3.20.32.41.35.7-1.80.72.0
Other advanced economies7.31.04.92.3-0.50.72.10.20.5-0.1-0.91.4
Memorandum
Industrial countries2.72.41.7-1.7-0.6-0.6-1.01.3-0.9-0.80.5
European Union4.10.53.02.7-3.50.61.3-0.80.10.60.50.9
Euro area3.83.53.2-4.5-0.40.1-1.9-1.00.60.10.5
Newly industrialized Asian economies4.30.27.34.63.2-1.12.3-0.7-0.8-4.6-7.0-0.4
Table 11.Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1982–911992–20011992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Developing countries45.121.042.848.754.723.215.39.710.16.66.25.2
Regional groups
Africa19.525.247.139.054.835.230.213.69.111.812.78.6
Sub-Sahara22.730.556.947.968.740.736.616.610.714.916.110.6
Excluding Nigeria and South Africa28.546.291.673.7121.757.358.823.313.022.325.113.8
Asia9.77.68.610.816.013.28.34.77.52.42.43.3
Excluding China and India13.28.79.58.38.09.17.76.421.29.03.75.1
Middle East and Europe21.224.826.526.633.239.226.925.425.320.417.49.5
Western Hemisphere163.050.2150.3194.6200.336.021.613.410.29.38.97.0
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel13.621.422.126.231.842.932.016.214.712.310.99.4
Manufactures49.523.954.267.675.623.813.68.77.44.65.04.1
Nonfuel primary products70.928.967.846.762.729.828.716.511.514.614.610.8
Services, income, and private transfers22.48.321.711.79.910.57.65.54.63.84.34.3
Diversified52.011.016.713.811.210.79.07.920.49.75.95.4
By external financing source
Net creditor countries2.73.54.25.53.95.73.81.81.71.23.14.2
Net debtor countries47.121.644.550.556.823.915.69.910.46.86.35.2
Official financing33.724.759.237.464.130.222.811.38.111.110.57.1
Private financing53.721.746.855.761.021.813.89.210.05.75.34.4
Diversified financing22.520.024.528.325.833.428.215.013.611.511.510.6
Net debtor countries by debt-servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or rescheduling during 1994–9897.352.8152.3196.9217.640.120.310.916.712.410.37.7
Other net debtor countries27.411.014.114.118.618.113.99.58.34.95.04.4
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries46.439.379.860.492.449.549.220.714.119.219.812.5
Least developed countries29.041.587.568.9102.550.551.520.013.220.120.711.7
Middle East and north Africa14.512.818.016.918.324.514.49.18.57.06.56.1
Memorandum
Median
Developing countries9.47.210.09.510.610.17.46.75.73.93.74.0
Regional groups
Africa9.89.111.19.724.712.37.77.45.83.64.33.8
Asia8.26.89.16.78.28.47.56.78.15.23.54.8
Middle East and Europe6.14.16.25.04.15.17.03.62.92.02.53.1
Western Hemisphere14.37.512.110.78.310.27.47.25.14.95.24.5
Table 12.Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
Average
1982–9119921993199419951996199719981999
Africa19.547.139.054.835.230.213.69.111.8
Algeria10.731.720.529.029.818.75.74.92.6
Angola8.1299.11,379.5949.82,672.24,146.0111.2107.4248.2
Benin1.45.90.438.514.54.93.85.80.3
Botswana11.816.214.310.510.510.18.86.57.2
Burkina Faso1.6-2.00.624.77.86.12.35.0-1.1
Burundi7.24.59.714.719.426.431.112.53.6
Cameroon6.11.9-3.712.725.86.65.22.9
Cape Verde10.813.45.83.38.46.08.64.44.4
Central African Republic2.8-0.8-2.924.519.23.71.6-1.9-1.5
Chad3.5-3.831.441.39.111.85.94.4-8.3
Comoros2.7-1.42.025.37.11.41.01.03.0
Congo, Dem. Rep. of113.24,129.21,893.123,760.5541.8616.8198.529.1284.9
Congo, Rep. of-0.5-3.95.042.98.610.213.21.83.1
Côte d’Ivoire4.24.22.126.014.32.75.64.50.7
Djibouti4.73.44.46.54.52.62.42.02.0
Equatorial Guinea16.61.01.638.911.46.03.03.03.0
Eritrea4.611.610.79.31.316.68.3
Ethiopia6.121.010.01.213.40.9-6.43.74.2
Gabon5.0-10.80.636.110.04.54.12.3-0.7
Gambia, The17.312.05.94.04.04.83.11.12.5
Ghana34.510.124.924.959.546.627.919.312.4
Guinea29.616.67.24.25.63.01.95.14.5
Guinea-Bissau55.969.448.215.245.450.749.18.0-0.9
Kenya12.327.345.928.81.59.011.26.63.5
Lesotho14.517.013.87.29.99.18.57.86.0
Liberia
Madagascar15.515.39.339.049.019.84.56.29.9
Malawi15.723.222.834.783.137.79.129.844.8
Mali1.8-5.9-0.624.812.46.5-0.74.1-1.2
Mauritania8.310.19.34.16.54.74.58.04.0
Mauritius8.02.98.99.46.15.87.95.35.6
Morocco6.85.75.25.16.13.01.02.70.7
Mozambique, Rep. of45.045.142.363.154.444.66.40.63.1
Namibia12.617.78.510.810.08.08.86.28.6
Niger-0.2-4.6-0.335.510.95.33.04.62.9
Nigeria18.744.657.257.072.829.38.510.06.6
Rwanda5.69.512.564.022.08.911.76.8-2.4
São Tomé and Principe21.133.725.551.236.842.069.042.116.3
Senegal5.1-0.1-0.632.08.12.81.72.40.8
Seychelles2.23.21.31.8-0.3-1.10.61.01.5
Sierra Leone76.565.522.224.226.023.114.935.529.6
Somalia
South Africa14.713.99.79.08.67.48.66.95.2
Sudan51.8117.6101.3115.568.4132.846.717.116.0
Swaziland13.37.612.013.812.36.47.18.16.1
Tanzania30.321.923.637.126.521.016.112.67.9
Togo3.51.6-0.135.315.84.67.11.0-0.9
Tunisia8.35.84.04.66.33.83.73.12.7
Uganda98.942.230.06.56.17.57.85.8-0.2
Zambia53.7165.7183.354.634.943.124.424.526.8
Zimbabwe14.942.127.622.222.621.418.832.358.2
Asia9.78.610.816.013.28.34.77.52.4
Afghanistan, Islamic State of
Bangladesh9.53.53.16.37.74.54.88.06.2
Bhutan9.816.08.98.110.77.07.07.07.0
Brunei Darussalam1.34.32.46.02.01.71.0
Cambodia75.0114.3-0.57.76.88.014.87.9
China7.16.414.724.117.18.32.8-0.8-1.4
Fiji6.68.26.54.95.20.62.22.2
India8.911.86.410.210.29.07.213.24.7
Indonesia8.37.59.78.59.47.96.658.020.8
Kiribati2.84.26.15.34.1-1.52.24.72.0
Lao RD. Republic40.89.86.36.819.413.019.381.036.0
Malaysia2.74.73.53.73.43.52.75.32.8
Maldives5.216.820.13.45.56.27.25.02.3
Marshall Islands10.35.05.68.39.64.84.03.0
Micronesia, Fed. States of5.06.04.04.04.03.03.03.0
Myanmar15.122.333.622.428.920.010.010.010.0
Nepal7.819.35.99.18.79.28.18.411.4
Pakistan7.09.49.811.313.010.811.87.85.7
Papua New Guinea5.74.35.02.917.311.63.913.614.9
Philippines13.68.66.98.48.09.05.99.76.7
Samoa4.29.01.712.1-2.95.46.92.23.0
Solomon Islands11.69.29.213.39.611.88.112.48.3
Sri Lanka11.711.411.78.47.715.99.69.44.7
Thailand3.84.13.45.15.85.95.68.10.3
Tonga10.38.73.12.40.32.81.82.93.0
Vanuatu6.84.13.62.32.20.92.93.22.0
Vietnam132.637.88.49.516.95.63.17.84.2
Middle East and Europe21.226.526.633.239.226.925.425.320.4
Bahrain0.7-0.32.60.43.1-0.14.5-0.4-1.3
Cyprus4.36.54.94.72.63.03.62.21.8
Egypt18.421.111.29.09.47.06.24.73.8
Iran, Islamic Republic of18.024.422.935.249.423.217.320.020.4
Iraq
Jordan5.44.03.33.62.36.53.03.10.6
Kuwait4.0-0.50.42.52.73.60.70.51.9
Lebanon80.299.824.78.010.68.97.74.50.2
Libya7.718.023.014.511.013.08.07.06.0
Malta1.41.84.04.14.02.43.12.42.5
Oman1.61.01.1-0.7-1.10.3-0.2-0.90.8
Qatar3.33.0-0.91.43.07.12.72.92.0
Saudi Arabia-0.40.80.65.00.9-0.4-0.2-1.2
Syrian Arab Republic21.83.423.63.97.78.91.9-0.4-2.1
Turkey48.570.166.1106.393.782.385.784.664.9
United Arab Emirates4.06.25.04.05.12.62.12.02.0
Yemen, Republic of50.662.371.862.541.84.311.27.0
Western Hemisphere163.0150.3194.6200.336.021.613.410.29.3
Antigua and Barbuda3.83.03.16.52.73.00.33.31.6
Argentina452.724.910.64.23.40.20.80.9-1.2
Bahamas, The5.15.72.71.32.11.40.51.31.5
Barbados4.96.01.2-0.12.41.83.61.70.5
Belize3.42.41.42.52.96.31.1-0.9-1.0
Bolivia220.012.18.57.910.289.191.591.993.8
Brazil384.71,022.51,927.42,075.866.015.86.93.24.9
Chile20.515.412.711.48.27.46.15.13.3
Colombia23.927.122.522.820.920.818.518.710.9
Costa Rica24.821.89.813.523.217.613.311.710.1
Dominica3.95.31.61.31.72.40.91.6
Dominican Republic28.84.35.38.312.55.48.34.86.5
Ecuador39.754.645.027.322.924.430.636.152.2
El Salvador19.011.218.510.610.19.84.52.50.6
Grenada3.63.82.82.62.22.81.31.40.5
Guatemala14.910.213.412.58.411.09.26.65.3
Guyana37.628.212.012.412.27.13.64.67.5
Haiti8.821.318.837.430.221.916.210.010.0
Honduras10.28.810.718.229.523.820.213.711.6
Jamaica22.757.524.333.221.721.59.18.16.3
Mexico64.415.59.87.035.034.420.615.916.6
Netherlands Antilles2.91.51.91.92.73.53.53.53.5
Nicaragua898.440.520.47.711.211.69.213.011.2
Panama1.21.80.51.30.91.31.30.61.3
Paraguay22.815.218.220.513.49.88.37.06.0
Peru381.173.548.623.711.111.58.57.33.5
St. Kitts and Nevis2.82.91.81.43.02.08.93.64.1
St. Lucia3.14.60.82.75.90.92.81.0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines3.83.54.31.01.74.40.42.11.0
Suriname14.543.7143.4368.5235.5-0.87.220.828.7
Trinidad and Tobago10.16.513.23.75.3-2.73.65.73.4
Uruguay67.368.554.244.742.228.319.810.85.7
Venezuela25.131.438.160.859.999.950.035.823.6

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

Table 13.Countries in Transition: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
Average
1982–9119921993199419951996199719981999
Central and eastern Europe278.4366.9151.772.232.138.418.720.6
Albania3.1226.085.022.67.812.733.220.60.4
Belarus969.01,190.22,434.1709.352.763.873.0293.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina-4.0-25.014.010.85.0
Bulgaria21.382.072.896.062.1123.01,082.222.32.1
Croatia1,516.697.52.03.53.65.74.2
Czech Republic20.810.09.18.88.510.62.1
Czechoslovakia, former7.011.0
Estonia1,069.089.847.729.023.111.28.23.3
Hungary13.522.822.418.828.323.518.314.310.0
Latvia951.3109.135.825.117.68.04.72.4
Lithuania1,021.0410.472.139.524.78.85.10.8
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Rep. of338.7127.515.72.32.6-0.1-0.7
Moldova1,276.6788.5329.630.223.511.87.739.3
Poland77.743.035.332.227.919.914.911.87.3
Romania22.5210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8
Slovak Republic23.013.49.95.86.16.710.7
Slovenia32.921.013.59.98.48.06.1
Ukraine1,210.04,734.9891.2376.480.215.910.622.7
Yugoslavia, former155.96,146.6
Russia1,734.7874.7307.4197.447.614.727.785.9
Transcaucasus and central Asia949.21,428.71,800.7265.580.932.913.015.4
Armenia824.53,731.85,273.4176.718.714.08.70.7
Azerbaijan912.61,129.71,664.0412.019.73.5-0.8-8.3
Georgia887.43,125.415,606.5162.739.47.13.619.1
Kazakhstan1,515.71,662.31,879.9176.339.117.47.38.4
Kyrgyz Republic853.8772.4190.139.131.923.410.335.7
Mongolia2.1202.6268.487.656.846.836.69.47.6
Tajikistan1,156.72,194.9350.4610.0418.288.043.227.6
Turkmenistan492.93,102.41,748.31,005.2992.483.716.823.5
Uzbekistan645.2534.21,568.3304.654.070.929.029.1

For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

Table 14.Summary Financial Indicators(Percent)
1992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Advanced economies
Central government fiscal balance1
Advanced economies-4.1-4.4-3.7-3.3-2.7-1.5-1.7-1.4-0.6-0.6
United States-4.9-4.2-3.0-2.6-1.8-0.60.61.32.02.0
European Union-5.0-6.0-5.2-4.6-3.9-2.4-1.7-0.90.3-0.4
Euro area-4.3-5.2-4.6-4.2-3.8-2.4-2.2-1.5-0.4-0.7
Japan-1.7-2.7-3.5-4.0-4.3-4.0-9.2-11.4-11.4-10.4
Other advanced economies-2.5-2.1-1.5-1.0-0.20.6-0.2-0.20.20.6
General government fiscal balance1
Advanced economies-4.3-4.7-4.0-3.8-3.1-1.7-1.3-0.9-0.2-0.1
United States-6.0-5.1-3.8-3.3-2.4-1.30.71.41.5
European Union-5.2-6.3-5.6-5.4-4.3-2.4-1.7-0.70.7
Euro area-4.7-5.7-5.2-5.2-4.4-2.6-2.2-1.30.1-0.4
Japan1.5-1.6-2.3-3.6-4.2-3.3-4.7-7.4-8.2-6.3
Other advanced economies-3.3-2.6-1.9-1.1-0.20.7-0.40.20.81.0
General government structural balance2
Advanced economies-3.9-3.6-3.2-3.1-2.4-1.2-0.6-0.4-0.5-0.4
Growth of broad money
Advanced economies3.03.72.54.34.95.06.8
United States1.81.40.63.94.55.78.56.1
Euro area7.16.32.35.74.04.44.67.2
Japan-0.41.42.93.22.93.84.42.6
Other advanced economies8.17.79.48.38.56.310.3
Short-term interest rates3
United States3.53.14.45.75.15.24.94.86.16.7
Japan4.02.41.90.80.30.30.20.20.5
Euro area11.18.66.36.14.64.13.92.94.45.1
LIBOR3.93.45.16.15.65.95.65.56.87.4
Developing countries
Central government fiscal balance1
Weighted average-3.0-3.2-2.7-2.6-2.3-2.6-4.0-4.5-3.5-3.1
Median-3.7-4.0-3.7-3.3-2.8-2.6-3.0-3.1-2.6-1.8
General government fiscal balance1
Weighted average-3.6-3.7-3.8-3.4-2.9-3.2-4.7-5.2-3.9-3.5
Median-3.7-3.9-3.7-3.3-2.8-2.5-3.2-3.2-2.3-1.7
Growth of broad money
Weighted average108.0115.794.325.223.220.616.514.713.411.8
Median17.916.218.816.314.415.19.711.110.09.3
Countries in transition
Central government fiscal balance1-9.7-6.2-7.4-4.6-4.6-4.6-3.6-2.20.2-1.5
General government fiscal balance1-14.2-6.8-7.3-4.6-5.8-5.3-5.0-2.40.3-2.1
Growth of broad money429.0424.4192.975.032.132.520.138.325.619.4

Percent of GDP.

Percent of potential GDP.

For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

Percent of GDP.

Percent of potential GDP.

For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

Table 15.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(Percent of GDP)
1992199319941995199619971998199920002001
General government fiscal balance
Advanced economies-4.3-4.7-4.0-3.8-3.1-1.7-1.3-0.9-0.2-0.1
Major industrial countries-4.5-5.0-4.2-4.1-3.5-2.0-1.4-1.1-0.3-0.3
United States-6.0-5.1-3.8-3.3-2.4-1.30.71.41.5
Japan1.5-1.6-2.3-3.6-4.2-3.3-4.7-7.4-8.2-6.3
Germany2-2.5-3.2-2.5-3.4-3.5-2.7-2.1-1.51.6-1.2
France2,3-4.1-5.9-5.5-5.5-4.2-3.0-2.7-1.8-1.20.3
Italy-9.5-9.4-9.1-7.6-7.1-2.7-2.8-1.9-1.3-0.9
United Kingdom2,4-6.5-8.0-6.8-5.8-4.1-1.60.21.63.60.8
Canada-9.2-8.7-6.7-5.4-2.80.20.22.23.02.9
Other advanced economies-3.2-3.6-3.0-2.7-1.5-0.6-0.8-0.30.40.5
Spain-4.0-6.7-6.1-7.0-5.0-3.2-2.6-1.1-0.4
Netherlands-3.8-3.1-3.6-4.2-1.8-1.2-0.80.51.60.4
Belgium-8.0-7.3-5.0-4.3-3.8-1.9-0.9-0.7-0.10.5
Sweden-7.5-11.8-10.8-7.7-3.5-1.71.91.93.43.1
Austria-1.9-4.2-4.8-5.1-3.7-1.6-2.5-2.0-1.7-1.5
Denmark-2.2-2.8-2.4-2.3-1.00.11.23.02.42.4
Finland-5.6-7.3-5.7-3.7-3.2-1.51.31.94.84.7
Greece-12.8-13.8-10.0-10.2-7.4-3.9-2.5-1.8-1.0-0.6
Portugal-2.9-6.1-6.0-4.6-3.8-2.5-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1
Ireland-2.8-2.5-2.1-2.6-0.60.82.13.73.73.1
Luxembourg2.35.24.22.22.73.63.32.42.53.0
Switzerland-3.4-3.6-2.9-1.9-2.2-2.4-1.1-1.4-1.2-1.4
Norway-1.7-1.40.43.56.67.93.64.811.29.5
Israel-3.3-2.7-3.3-4.4-5.6-4.0-3.6-4.8-3.3-3.1
Iceland-2.8-4.5-4.7-3.0-1.60.81.21.31.5
Korea50.11.31.01.31.0-0.9-3.8-2.7-1.6-0.5
Australia6-4.7-4.4-3.4-2.1-0.90.20.70.80.5
Taiwan Province of China0.30.60.20.40.30.62.20.1-0.5-0.4
Hong Kong SAR2.52.31.3-0.32.26.6-1.8-0.2-0.21.0
Singapore11.314.413.912.29.39.23.63.32.43.1
New Zealand7-4.1-0.12.03.32.82.32.21.30.81.4
Memorandum
Industrial countries-4.5-5.1-4.3-4.2-3.3-1.9-1.3-0.9-0.1-0.1
European Union-5.2-6.3-5.6-5.4-4.3-2.4-1.7-0.70.7
Euro area-4.7-5.7-5.2-5.2-4.4-2.6-2.2-1.30.1-0.4
Newly industrialized Asian economies1.22.11.71.61.61.2-1.1-1.1-0.8
Fiscal balance excluding social security transactions
United States-6.2-5.3-4.2-3.7-2.7-1.7-0.7-0.3
Japan-2.0-4.8-5.1-6.5-6.8-5.9-6.8-9.2-9.5-7.3
Germany-2.4-3.4-2.6-3.0-3.1-2.8-2.3-1.91.41.3
France-3.5-4.6-4.7-4.8-3.6-2.5-2.6-1.9-1.3-0.2
Italy-5.2-5.4-4.5-5.6-5.3-0.71.32.83.23.6
Canada-7.1-6.5-4.5-3.3-0.62.42.23.94.43.8
Central government fiscal balance
Advanced economies-4.1-4.4-3.7-3.3-2.7-1.5-1.7-1.4-0.6-0.6
Major industrial countries-4.4-4.5-3.8-3.4-2.9-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.7-0.8
United States8-4.9-4.2-3.0-2.6-1.8-0.60.61.32.02.0
Japan9-1.7-2.7-3.5-4.0-4.3-4.0-9.2-11.4-11.4-10.4
Germany10-1.2-2.1-1.5-1.4-2.2-1.7-1.5-1.31.4-1.0
France10-3.3-4.8-4.8-4.2-3.7-3.5-3.0-2.3-2.3-0.6
Italy-10.3-9.9-9.1-7.1-6.8-2.6-2.8-1.5-0.9-0.6
United Kingdom-7.3-8.2-6.7-5.5-4.2-1.60.21.73.60.9
Canada-5.1-5.5-4.6-3.9-2.00.50.50.60.91.1
Other advanced economies-3.3-3.9-3.1-2.8-1.7-0.9-1.0-0.7-0.2
Memorandum
Industrial countries-4.3-4.7-4.0-3.5-2.9-1.7-1.7-1.4-0.6-0.6
European Union-5.0-6.0-5.2-4.6-3.9-2.4-1.7-0.90.3-0.4
Euro area-4.3-5.2-4.6-4.2-3.8-2.4-2.2-1.5-0.4-0.7
Newly industrialized Asian economies-0.30.81.01.01.00.9-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.5

On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A.1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

Includes mobile telephone license receipts equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 1.3 percent of GDP in 2001 for France, and 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom.

Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

Excludes asset sales.

Data include social security transactions (that is, the operations of the public pension plan).

Data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending).

Data from 1992 onward are on an accrual basis and are not strictly comparable with previous cash-based data.

Data are on a budget basis.

Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A.1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

Includes mobile telephone license receipts equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 1.3 percent of GDP in 2001 for France, and 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom.

Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

Excludes asset sales.

Data include social security transactions (that is, the operations of the public pension plan).

Data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending).

Data from 1992 onward are on an accrual basis and are not strictly comparable with previous cash-based data.

Data are on a budget basis.

Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

Table 16.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(Percent of potential GDP)
1992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Structural balance2
Advanced economies-3.9-3.6-3.2-3.1-2.4-1.2-0.6-0.4-0.5-0.4
Major industrial countries-3.8-3.6-3.1-3.1-2.5-1.3-0.7-0.5-0.6-0.5
United States-4.7-3.7-2.7-2.1-1.4-0.60.30.60.80.9
Japan0.9-1.4-1.7-2.9-4.5-3.5-3.3-5.5-6.5-4.9
Germany3,4-4.0-3.1-2.5-3.4-2.7-1.6-1.2-0.6-0.4-1.2
France4-3.8-3.8-3.9-4.0-2.4-1.4-1.6-0.7-0.8-1.3
Italy-9.4-8.2-7.9-7.0-6.0-1.5-1.5-0.3-0.3-0.3
United Kingdom4-3.5-4.5-4.2-4.2-2.9-0.90.31.50.90.2
Canada-4.9-4.4-3.9-2.92.11.72.62.42.2
Other advanced economies-4.3-3.7-3.5-3.1-1.6-0.6-0.30.20.30.2
Spain-5.2-5.0-5.2-5.1-3.3-2.0-1.9-1.0-0.8-0.4
Netherlands-3.7-1.9-2.7-3.0-0.9-0.8-0.9-0.1-0.3-1.2
Belgium-8.0-5.0-3.0-2.6-1.5-0.50.10.1-0.4-0.3
Sweden-5.7-5.9-6.7-5.20.21.75.14.13.83.0
Austria-2.6-3.7-4.6-4.9-3.4-0.8-1.8-1.2-1.3-1.4
Denmark-1.1-1.1-1.2-1.7-0.70.72.41.92.0
Finland-1.1-0.7-0.50.40.50.31.92.34.54.2
Greece-7.1-5.9-3.9-3.5-2.4-1.2-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.3
Portugal-4.4-5.4-5.0-3.6-2.9-2.0-2.1-2.0-1.8-1.5
Ireland-2.1-0.40.3-1.50.20.31.12.01.60.9
Norway5-2.8-2.0-0.90.6-1.8-1.8-2.30.10.70.9
Australia6-2.9-2.7-2.2-1.3-0.30.50.50.80.90.5
New Zealand7-3.3-0.40.41.71.41.31.20.70.81.2
Memorandum
European Union8-5.0-4.5-4.2-4.3-3.0-1.2-0.9-0.1-0.5
Euro area8-5.3-4.5-4.2-4.3-3.2-1.4-1.3-0.5-0.4-0.8

On a national income accounts basis.

The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit (or surplus) less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is imp