Chapter

Statistical Appendix

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
April 2004
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The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises five sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2004–05 and the mediumterm scenario for 2006–09 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of changes to the database and statistical tables. The third section provides a general description of the data, and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the fourth section.

The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through mid-September 2004. The figures for 2004 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

Assumptions

Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period July 7– August 4, 2004. For 2004 and 2005, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.468 for 2004 and 1.461 for 2005, U.S. dollar/euro conversion rate of 1.22 and 1.21, and yen/U.S. dollar conversion rates of 109.7 and 109.8, respectively.

It is assumed that the price of oil will average $37.25 a barrel in 2004 and 2005.

Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 1.6 percent in 2004 and 3.4 percent in 2005, that six-month euro deposits will average 2.2 percent in 2004 and 2.8 percent in 2005, and that six-month Japanese yen deposits will average 0.1 percent in 2004 and 0.3 percent in 2005.

With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are as follows.

1 euro = 13.7603Austrian schillings
= 40.3399Belgian francs
= 1.95583Deutsche mark
= 5.94573Finnish markkaa
= 6.55957French francs
= 340.750Greek drachma1
= 0.787564Irish pound
= 1,936.27Italian lire
= 40.3399Luxembourg francs
= 2.20371Netherlands guilders
= 200.482Portuguese escudos
= 166.386Spanish pesetas

See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

What’s New

  • The European Union added 10 new member nations on May 1, 2004, enlarging the group to a total of 25 countries. The new members are Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.

Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 12–14 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances).1

United States. The fiscal projections are based on the Administration’s mid-session review projections (July 30, 2004) adjusted to take into account: (1) differences between macroeconomic assumptions; (2) additional Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) relief; and (3) higher defense spending in line with Congressional Budget Office projections and IMF staff assumptions. Most provisions of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are assumed to be made permanent.

Japan. The medium-term projections for social security revenue and expenditure assume implementation of the pension reform recently passed by the Diet. For the rest of the general government (excluding social security), expenditure and revenue are adjusted in line with the current government target of achieving primary balance by the early 2010s.

Germany. Fiscal projections for 2004–09 are based on the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions and estimates of fiscal adjustment measures and structural reforms.

France. Projections for 2004 are based on the budget adjusted for the IMF staff’s growth projections and budget execution to date. For 2005–07, projections are based on the IMF staff’s macroeco-nomic assumptions and the intentions underlying the 2005–07 Stability Program Update, except for a higher growth of health care spending. For 2008–09, the IMF staff assumes unchanged tax policies and real expenditure growth at the average rate of 2005–07.

Italy. Fiscal projections for 2004 assume measures of about ½ percent of GDP committed to by the authorities in July. In 2005, the planned tax cuts are assumed to be fully matched by expenditure cuts. Beyond 2005, projections start with the assumption of a constant structural primary balance, and are then adjusted for the savings from the ongoing pension reform (impact starting from 2008).

United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the 2004 Budget Report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns throughout 2004:Q1.

Canada. Projections are based on the 2004 budget, released on March 23, 2004. The federal government balance is the IMF staff’s estimate of the planning surplus (budgetary balance less contingency and economic reserves).

Australia. Fiscal projections through the fiscal year 2007/08 are based on the 2004 Budget published in May 2004. Subsequently, the IMF staff assumes no change in policies.

Austria. Fiscal projections for 2004 are based on the authorities’ most recent projections. Projections for 2005–07 are based on the Stability Program objectives, adjusted for IMF staff projections of yields of spending and tax measures in 2005–06. Projections for 2008 assume further improvements in fiscal balances based on expenditure measures, consistent with the authorities’ plan to balance the budget in 2008.

Belgium. Fiscal projections for 2004 are consistent with the budget and developments through midyear. Projections for subsequent years are based on the government’s tax reform plans, and historical expenditure trends, adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions.

Denmark. Projections for 2004 are aligned with the authorities’ latest projections and budget, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections. For 2005–09, projections are in line with the authorities’ medium-term framework—adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections—targeting an average budget surplus of 1.5–2.5 percent of GDP, supported by a ceiling on real public consumption growth.

Greece. Historical data and projections do not take into account revisions to the fiscal data announced in mid-September, which raised general government deficits and debt substantially. The projections assume (1) constant ratio of revenue to GDP; (2) EU transfers falling in the medium term; (3) continuation of the increase in social contributions until 2007; (4) continuation of recent trends for wage growth, social spending, and operational spending; (5) a gradual decline in investment spending from its peak level in 2003–04 owing to the 2004 Olympic games; and (6) a constant ratio to GDP for other spending.

Korea. For 2004, it is assumed that the fiscal outcome will be in line with the budget. In the medium term, fiscal policy is assumed consistent with achieving a balanced budget excluding social security funds.

Netherlands. Fiscal projections for 2004 and 2005 build on the latest government estimates and include the additional policy measures announced in the spring. Projections for subsequent years are based on the latest Stability Program, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions.

Portugal. Fiscal projections for 2004 build on the preliminary figures for the 2003 deficit and the authorities’ 2004 targets (including the 2004 budget target for one-off measures), adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections for 2004. Projections for 2005 and beyond assume a constant structural primary balance.

Spain. Fiscal projections through 2007 are based on the national authorities’ updated stability program of January 2004, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections. Projections also reflect the combined effect of the recently announced decision to pay the historical debt with Andalusia (0.3 percent of GDP) this year and additional spending associated with this transfer; a small deficit is also envisaged for regional governments (0.2 percent of GDP). In subsequent years, the fiscal projections assume no significant changes in policies.

Sweden. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the 2004 Spring Budget Bill. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from Statistics Sweden, including provisional budgetary outturns throughout May 2004.

Switzerland. Projections for 2004 are based on federal budget and IMF staff projections for lower levels of government. Projections for 2005–07 are based on official financial plans (which incorporate measures to restore balance in the federal accounts) adjusted for the effects of recent referenda and for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.

Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will therefore increase when economic indicators suggest that prospective inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range, and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits is assumed to average 1.6 percent in 2004 and 3.4 percent in 2005. The projected path for U.S. dollar short-term interest rates reflects the assumption implicit in prevailing forward rates that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in 2004–05. The rate on six-month euro deposits is assumed to average 2.2 percent in 2004 and 2.8 percent in 2005. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.1 percent in 2004 and 0.3 percent in 2005, with the current monetary policy framework being maintained. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the April 2004 World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1.1.

1 The output gap is actual less potential output, as a percent of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percent of potential output. The structural budget balance is the budgetary position that would be observed if the level of actual output coincided with potential output. Changes in the structural budget balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluctuations in the budget balance. The computations of structural budget balances are based on IMF staff estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities (see the October 1993 World Economic Outlook, Annex I). Net debt is defined as gross debt less financial assets of the general government, which include assets held by the social security insurance system. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

Data and Conventions

Data and projections for 175 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

The completion in 1993 of the comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA) and the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.2 The IMF was actively involved in both projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new BPM began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM.

The members of the European Union have adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of the national accounts, referred to as ESA 1995. All national accounts data from 1995 onward are presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to 1995 to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed. In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series. Users of EU national accounts data prior to 1995 should nevertheless exercise caution until such time as the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1.2, “Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies,” in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook.

Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the other emerging market and developing country group, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

  • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
  • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world or group GDP.3
  • Composites for data relating to the domestic economy for the euro area (12 member countries throughout the entire period unless otherwise noted) are aggregates of national source data using weights based on 1995 ECU exchange rates.
  • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
  • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year). For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

Classification of Countries

Summary of the Country Classification

The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and other emerging market and developing countries.4 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been fully developed. Because of data limitations, group composites do not reflect the following countries: Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brunei Darussalam, Eritrea, Liberia, Serbia and Montenegro, Somalia, and Timor-Leste. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, is an example of an economy for which a database has not been completed.

Each of the two main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major advanced countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 12 members of the euro area, and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The other emerging market and developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 2003 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20031(Percent of total for group or world)
Number of

Countries
GDPExports of Goods

and Services
Population
Advanced

economies
WorldAdvanced

economies
WorldAdvanced

economies
World
Advanced economies29100.055.5100.073.4100.015.4
United States38.021.115.111.130.44.7
Euro area1228.615.943.632.032.25.0
Germany8.14.512.99.58.61.3
France5.83.26.85.06.41.0
Italy5.53.05.44.06.00.9
Spain3.21.83.52.64.30.7
Japan12.67.07.85.713.32.1
United Kingdom5.73.26.74.96.21.0
Canada3.51.94.93.63.30.5
Other advanced economies1311.76.521.916.114.62.2
Memorandum
Major advanced economies779.143.959.743.874.311.4
Newly industrialized Asian economies45.93.312.79.38.61.3
Other

emerging

market and

developing

economies
WorldOther

emerging

market and

developing

economies
WorldOther

emerging

market and

developing

economies
World
Other emerging market and
developing countries146100.044.5100.026.6100.084.6
Regional groups
Africa487.33.27.92.114.612.4
Sub-Sahara455.52.55.81.513.311.2
Excluding Nigeria and South Africa432.91.32.80.79.78.2
Central and eastern Europe157.53.315.04.03.53.0
Commonwealth of Independent States138.23.79.12.45.34.5
Russia5.72.66.21.72.72.3
Developing Asia2353.523.838.810.361.952.4
China28.312.619.85.324.620.9
India12.95.73.40.920.317.2
Excluding China and India2112.45.515.64.217.014.3
Middle East146.32.813.73.64.74.0
Western Hemisphere3317.27.615.64.19.98.4
Brazil6.22.83.40.93.32.8
Mexico4.11.84.81.31.91.6
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel197.23.216.54.47.36.1
Nonfuel12792.841.383.522.292.778.5
of which, primary products292.61.22.60.77.16.0
By external financing source
Net debtor countries12959.626.559.515.869.258.5
of which, official financing5410.44.68.52.323.720.0
Net debtor countries
by debt-servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1997–20015518.48.215.74.227.122.9
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries362.81.21.90.59.98.4
Middle East and north Africa208.43.715.94.26.85.7

The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs. The number of countries comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs. The number of countries comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

Advanced Economies

The 29 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The euro area (12 countries) and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
Other Subgroups
Major Currency AreasEuro areaNewly industrialized

Asian economies
Major advanced

economies
Other advanced economies
United StatesAustriaIrelandHong Kong SAR1CanadaAustraliaKorea
Euro areaBelgiumItalyKoreaFranceCyprusNew Zealand
JapanFinlandLuxembourgSingaporeGermanyDenmarkNorway
FranceNetherlandsTaiwan ProvinceItalyHong Kong SAR1Singapore
GermanyPortugalof ChinaJapanIcelandSweden
GreeceSpainUnited KingdomIsraelSwitzerland
United StatesTaiwan Province
of China

On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

Table C.European Union
AustriaFranceLatviaPortugal
BelgiumGermanyLithuaniaSlovak Republic
CyprusGreeceLuxembourgSlovenia
Czech RepublicHungaryMaltaSpain
DenmarkIrelandNetherlandsSweden
EstoniaItalyPolandUnited Kingdom
Finland

In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Länder (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries

The group of other emerging market and developing countries (146 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies.

The regional breakdowns of other emerging market and developing countries—Africa, central and eastern Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States, developing Asia, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—largely conform to the regional breakdowns in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in the Middle East region rather than in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Sahara, sub-Sahara excluding Nigeria and South Africa, and Asia excluding China and India.

Other emerging market and developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. Included as “other groups” are the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and Middle East and north Africa (MENA). The detailed composition of other emerging market and developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables D through F.

Table D.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
FuelNonfuel, of Which

Primary Products
Africa
Sub-SaharaAngolaBotswana
Congo, Rep. ofBurkina Faso
Equatorial GuineaBurundi
GabonChad
NigeriaCongo, Dem. Rep. of
Côte d’Ivoire
Ethiopia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Mauritania
Namibia
Niger
Rwanda
Sierra Leone
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
North AfricaAlgeria
Commonwealth
of Independent
StatesAzerbaijanTajikistan
TurkemenistanUzbekistan
Developing AsiaPapua New Guinea
Solomon Islands
Middle EastBahrain
Iran, I.R. of
Iraq
Kuwait
Libya
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Western
HemisphereVenezuelaBolivia
Chile
Guyana
Table E.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries by Region and Net External Position
CountriesNet CreditorNet Debtor1CountriesNet CreditorNet Debtor1
AfricaCroatia
Sub-SaharaCzech Republic
AngolaEstonia
Benin*Hungary
BotswanaLatvia
Burkina Faso*Lithuania
Burundi*Macedonia, FYR
Cameroon*Malta
Cape VerdePoland
Central African Republic*
Chad*Romania
Serbia and Montenegro*
Comoros*Slovak Republic
Congo, Dem. Rep. of*
Congo, Rep. of*Slovenia
Côte d’IvoireTurkey
Djibouti*Commonwealth of2
Equatorial GuineaIndependent States2
Eritrea*Armenia
Ethiopia*Azerbaijan
Gabon*Belarus
Gambia, TheGeorgia*
Ghana*Kazakhstan
Guinea*Kyrgyz Republic*
Guinea-Bissau*Moldova
KenyaMongolia*
LesothoRussia
Madagascar*Tajikistan*
Malawi*Turkmenistan
Mali*Ukraine
Mauritania*Uzbekistan
MauritiusDeveloping Asia
Mozambique, Rep. of*Bangladesh*
NamibiaBhutan*
Niger*Brunei
Nigeria*Cambodia*
Rwanda*China
São Tomé and Príncipe*Fiji*
Senegal
India
SeychellesIndonesia*
Sierra LeoneKiribati
South AfricaLao PDR*
SudanMalaysia
SwazilandMaldivs
Tanzania
Togo*Myanmar*
Uganda

Zambia
Nepal*
Zimbabwe*Papua New Guinea*
North AfricaPhilippines
AlgeriaSamoa
MoroccoSolomon Islands*
TunisiaSri Lanka
Central and eastern EuropeThailand
Albania*Tonga*
Bosnia and Herzegovina*Vanuatu*
BulgariaVietnam*
Middle EastCosta Rica
BahrainDominica
EgyptDominican Republic
Iran, I.R. ofEquador*
IraqEl Salvador*
Jordan*Grenada*
KuwaitGuatemala
LebanonGuyana
LibyaHaiti*
Oman
Honduras*
Qator
Saudi ArabiaJamaica
Syrian Arab Republic
United Arab EmiratesNetherlands Antilles
Yemen*Panama
Western Hemisphere
Antigua and BarbudaParaguay
ArgentinaSt. Kitts and Nevis
Bahamas, The
BarbadosSt. Lucia*
BelizeSt. Vincent and the Grenadines
BoliviaSuriname
BrazilTrinidad and Tobago
ChileUruguay
ColombiaVenezuela

Star instead of dot indicates that the net debtor’s main external finance source is official financing.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and simi-latiries in economic structure.

Star instead of dot indicates that the net debtor’s main external finance source is official financing.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and simi-latiries in economic structure.

Table F.Other Developing Country Groups
CountriesHeavily Indebted

Poor Countries
Middle East and

North Africa
CountriesHeavily Indebted

Poor Countries
Middle East and

North Africa
AfricaTogo
Sub-SaharaUganda
BeninZambia
Burkina FasoNorth Africa
BurundiAlgeria
CameroonMorocco
Central African RepublicTunisia
ChadDeveloping Asia
ComorosLao PDR
Congo, Dem. Rep. ofMyanmar
Congo, Rep. ofMiddle East
Côte d’lvoireBahrain
EthiopiaEgypt
Gambia, TheIran, I.R. of
GhanaIraq
GuineaJordan
Guinea-BissauKuwait
Lebanon
MadagascarLibya
MalawiOman
MaliQatar
MauritaniaSaudi Arabia
Mozambique, Rep. ofSyrian Arab Republic
NigerUnited Arab Emirates
RwandaYemen
São lomé and principleWestern Hemisphere

Bolivia
Sierra Leone
Guyana
SudanHonduras
TanzaniaNicaragua

The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes between categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification— SITC 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on non-fuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68).

The financial criteria focus on net creditor and net debtor countries. Net debtor countries are further differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by official external financing and by experience with debt servicing.5

The other groups of developing countries constitute the HIPCs and MENA countries. The first group comprises the countries considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative.6 Middle East and north Africa, also referred to as the MENA countries, is a World Economic Outlook group, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East regions. It is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran.

List of Tables

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

Table 1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005
World3.33.84.14.22.83.74.72.43.03.95.04.3
Advanced economies3.02.83.03.42.73.53.91.21.62.13.62.9
United States2.93.43.74.54.24.43.70.81.93.04.33.5
Euro area2.01.42.32.92.83.51.60.80.52.22.2
Japan23.11.63.51.8−1.20.22.80.4−0.32.54.42.3
Other advanced economies33.73.43.74.12.04.65.21.73.02.33.83.1
Other emerging market and
developing countries3.75.15.65.33.04.05.94.04.86.16.65.9
Regional groups
Africa1.93.95.73.23.12.72.94.03.54.34.55.4
Central and eastern Europe0.83.64.84.22.80.44.90.24.44.55.54.8
Commonwealth of Independent States44.1−3.91.1−3.55.19.16.45.47.88.06.6
Developing Asia7.76.68.26.54.16.26.75.56.67.77.66.9
Middle East2.74.54.65.33.82.45.53.64.36.05.14.8
Western Hemisphere2.82.63.75.22.30.43.90.5−0.11.84.63.6
Memorandum
Memorandum
European Union2.32.41.92.83.12.93.71.81.21.12.62.5
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel2.04.53.94.83.41.65.54.03.86.56.05.8
Nonfuel3.85.15.75.33.04.25.94.04.96.16.65.9
of which, primary products3.03.55.94.02.71.72.03.42.62.55.24.8
By external financing source
Net debtor countries3.14.05.34.51.82.94.72.53.44.65.45.2
of which, official financing4.33.86.24.2−1.92.84.44.03.94.75.35.3
Net debtor countries by debt-
servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1997–20012.33.54.23.8−0.61.94.53.73.53.35.45.1
Memorandum
Median growth rate
Advanced economies3.03.03.33.83.63.84.21.61.82.03.02.7
Other emerging market and
developing countries3.14.04.44.63.73.44.03.53.54.34.54.5
Output per capita
Advanced economies2.32.22.32.82.02.93.30.61.01.63.12.4
Other emerging market and
developing countries1.93.74.03.81.52.54.42.63.44.85.34.6
World growth based on market
exchange rates2.62.93.33.52.23.14.01.41.72.74.13.4
Value of world output in billions
of U.S. dollars
At market exchange rates22,26233,32529,87029,73629,50830,61331,43631,17532,35736,23840,10842,213
At purchasing power parities26,73545,29235,71937,91839,40441,39444,23646,29248,17650,43153,07056,282

Real GDP.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Real GDP.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005200320042005
Real GDP
Advanced economies3.02.83.03.42.73.53.91.21.62.13.62.9
United States2.93.43.74.54.24.43.70.81.93.04.33.54.43.73.4
Euro area2.01.42.32.92.83.51.60.80.52.22.20.72.22.4
Germany2.71.40.81.42.02.02.90.80.1−0.12.01.81.82.3
France2.12.31.01.93.63.24.22.11.10.52.62.31.03.02.1
Italy2.11.51.12.01.81.73.01.80.40.31.41.90.11.52.5
Spain3.03.22.44.04.34.24.42.82.22.52.62.92.82.63.1
Netherlands2.72.33.03.84.34.03.51.40.6−0.91.11.8−0.51.22.2
Belgium2.32.10.93.72.13.23.70.70.71.12.52.31.33.01.7
Austria2.52.02.01.63.92.73.40.81.40.71.62.40.82.52.2
Finland1.13.43.96.35.03.45.11.12.32.02.82.61.63.61.8
Greece1.23.62.43.63.43.44.44.03.94.33.93.04.33.92.8
Portugal4.02.43.54.04.63.83.41.60.4−1.21.42.2−0.21.82.9
Ireland24.47.48.110.88.911.19.96.06.13.74.75.05.14.14.3
Luxembourg6.24.63.38.36.97.89.01.31.72.12.83.4
Japan33.11.63.51.8−1.20.22.80.4−0.32.54.42.33.53.51.9
United Kingdom2.52.82.83.33.12.93.92.31.82.23.42.52.93.12.2
Canada2.33.41.64.24.15.55.21.83.42.02.93.11.73.43.0
Korea8.54.47.04.7−6.99.58.53.87.03.14.64.03.92.94.7
Australia3.13.74.33.95.24.33.22.53.83.03.63.43.93.72.2
Taiwan Province of China8.14.36.16.74.65.45.9−2.23.63.35.64.15.63.93.7
Sweden1.62.61.32.43.64.64.30.92.11.63.02.52.32.22.8
Switzerland1.41.50.51.92.81.33.71.00.2−0.51.82.2−0.11.82.2
Hong Kong SAR6.63.44.35.1−5.03.410.20.51.93.27.54.04.74.84.3
Denmark1.62.12.53.02.52.62.81.61.00.52.12.51.52.12.7
Norway2.82.85.35.22.62.12.82.71.40.42.72.70.52.23.3
Israel5.42.94.63.53.72.58.0−0.9−0.71.33.63.51.76.71.1
Singapore8.84.68.18.6−0.96.99.7−1.92.21.18.84.44.96.45.0
New Zealand2.53.04.02.0−0.14.03.82.64.33.44.22.03.13.32.5
Cyprus5.73.31.92.34.84.75.04.02.02.03.03.5
Iceland1.74.15.24.75.64.25.62.7−0.54.04.45.3
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.72.62.83.22.73.13.51.01.22.23.72.93.03.22.8
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.14.36.45.6−2.27.27.91.15.03.05.54.05.14.14.8
Real total domestic demand
Advanced economies3.02.83.03.33.14.03.81.11.62.33.52.7
United States2.73.83.84.85.35.34.40.92.53.34.63.34.34.03.1
Euro area1.91.01.83.63.52.91.00.41.21.82.11.41.42.4
Germany2.80.70.30.62.42.81.9−0.8−1.90.50.21.40.8−0.32.2
France2.12.50.70.74.23.74.52.01.51.43.62.62.03.92.2
Italy1.81.90.92.73.13.22.31.41.31.21.41.80.11.42.5
Spain3.73.71.93.55.75.64.62.92.83.23.33.13.52.73.5
Japan33.41.34.00.8−1.50.32.31.2−1.01.83.52.02.62.91.5
United Kingdom2.63.33.13.54.83.93.82.92.92.53.52.52.72.52.6
Canada2.03.30.95.72.44.14.91.33.44.42.73.33.72.73.1
Other advanced economies5.33.04.83.9−1.15.25.10.43.31.13.83.2
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.72.82.83.13.43.83.61.11.42.53.52.73.13.12.6
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.82.96.94.6−7.57.37.5−0.33.7−0.34.63.71.83.84.5

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Fourth-quarter data are calculated from seasonally adjusted data.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Fourth-quarter data are calculated from seasonally adjusted data.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Table 3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Private consumer expenditure
Advanced economies3.12.82.92.93.14.03.72.32.32.12.72.4
United States2.93.73.43.85.05.14.72.53.13.33.42.7
Euro area1.91.61.63.03.52.71.90.61.01.52.1
Germany2.91.11.00.61.83.72.01.7−0.70.11.2
France1.82.31.30.23.63.52.92.81.81.72.52.5
Italy2.21.91.23.23.22.62.80.80.51.31.32.1
Spain2.93.32.23.24.44.74.12.82.92.93.22.9
Japan13.31.32.41.00.20.81.80.90.83.11.7
United Kingdom3.03.43.63.63.94.44.62.93.32.32.72.3
Canada2.33.32.64.62.83.84.02.73.43.13.22.6
Other advanced economies5.13.24.74.1−0.65.85.42.53.61.32.93.0
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.92.82.62.73.43.83.52.32.12.22.82.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.33.46.35.1−5.08.07.43.24.6−0.21.93.7
Public consumption
Advanced economies2.22.31.61.41.82.72.42.93.42.32.02.8
United States1.52.50.41.81.63.11.73.14.02.92.04.2
Euro area1.91.71.31.41.82.12.53.11.71.51.5
Germany1.61.01.80.31.90.81.11.01.90.10.20.7
France2.32.42.22.1−0.11.53.02.94.62.53.01.9
Italy1.31.61.10.30.31.41.73.81.92.21.21.8
Spain4.73.61.32.93.74.25.63.54.13.94.03.5
Japan13.42.42.91.02.04.64.93.02.41.01.60.9
United Kingdom1.02.41.3−0.41.23.52.32.63.83.54.02.8
Canada1.62.2−1.2−1.03.22.13.13.72.83.82.82.7
Other advanced economies3.92.75.32.82.91.22.02.83.22.02.12.6
Memorandum
Major advanced economies1.92.21.21.11.52.92.42.93.32.31.92.9
Newly industrialized Asian economies5.63.17.84.03.1−0.12.43.03.42.42.92.00
Gross fixed capital formation
Advanced economies3.33.55.65.45.25.55.3−0.9−2.02.55.73.5
United States2.85.08.18.09.18.26.1−1.7−3.14.58.73.3
Euro area2.11.32.55.26.04.9−0.3−2.7−0.62.13.4
Germany3.3−0.2−0.80.63.04.12.7−4.2−6.4−2.2−0.92.6
France2.33.3−0.1−0.27.28.38.42.1−1.80.14.45.4
Italy1.52.83.62.14.05.06.91.91.2−2.13.62.4
Spain5.04.62.15.010.08.85.73.01.73.23.23.3
Japan13.70.97.00.6−4.3−0.52.8−1.3−6.13.24.73.7
United Kingdom2.74.75.76.812.71.63.62.62.72.26.33.5
Canada2.05.64.415.22.47.34.74.12.44.96.04.7
Other advanced economies6.53.06.35.5−0.72.96.9−3.92.92.14.54.1
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.93.55.75.15.75.65.2−0.8−2.92.76.23.4
Newly industrialized Asian economies11.52.17.54.6−9.12.410.6−6.81.51.16.44.9
Final domestic demand
Advanced economies3.02.93.23.13.14.03.91.71.52.23.22.7
United States2.73.83.84.35.35.44.51.82.13.44.13.0
Euro area2.01.61.73.23.73.11.50.40.81.62.2
Germany2.70.80.70.52.13.22.00.2−1.5−0.4−0.11.4
France2.02.51.30.63.34.04.12.71.71.63.03.0
Italy1.92.01.72.42.82.93.41.50.90.71.72.1
Spain3.63.72.03.55.55.54.73.02.83.13.33.1
Japan13.41.33.80.9−1.00.72.01.1−0.81.53.32.1
United Kingdom2.53.43.43.34.83.84.02.83.32.53.62.6
Canada2.13.52.15.42.84.24.03.23.13.63.73.1
Other advanced economies5.23.05.24.0−0.54.15.20.93.41.63.13.2
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.72.83.02.93.43.93.71.71.32.33.32.6
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.73.07.04.6−5.65.17.60.43.60.63.23.9
Stock building2
Advanced economies−0.20.2−0.60.10.10.40.1
United States0.10.5−0.1−0.90.4−0.10.90.3
Euro area−0.1−0.50.10.4−0.2−0.1−0.60.30.2−0.2
Germany−0.1−0.50.3−0.4−0.1−1.0−0.40.90.3
France0.1−0.60.10.8−0.20.4−0.6−0.2−0.20.6−0.3
Italy−0.1−0.70.30.30.3−1.1−0.10.50.5−0.3−0.3
Spain−0.10.20.1−0.1−0.10.1
Japan10.3−0.1−0.6−0.40.3−0.20.30.2−0.1
United Kingdom−0.30.30.10.2−0.10.1−0.4−0.1−0.1
Canada0.1−0.70.7−0.30.10.8−1.90.60.9−0.60.1
Other advanced economies0.1−0.1−0.3−0.2−0.50.9−0.1−0.5−0.1−0.40.6
Memorandum
Major advanced economies−0.10.3−0.1−0.60.10.20.50.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies0.1−0.1−0.1−0.1−1.91.9−0.2−0.70.1−0.81.1−0.1
Foreign balance2
Advanced economies−0.10.2−0.4−0.50.1−0.1−0.20.10.2
United States0.1−0.5−0.1−0.3−1.2−1.0−0.9−0.2−0.7−0.4−0.50.1
Euro area0.10.40.6−0.6−0.60.60.70.5−0.70.40.2
Germany−0.10.60.50.8−0.4−0.71.01.61.9−0.61.90.5
France−0.20.41.2−0.5−0.4−0.20.1−0.4−0.8−1.0−0.3
Italy0.2−0.40.2−0.6−1.2−1.40.80.3−0.9−0.90.1
Spain−0.6−0.50.50.6−1.3−1.4−0.3−0.2−0.6−0.8−0.8−0.3
Japan1−0.20.3−0.41.00.3−0.10.5−0.70.70.71.10.5
United Kingdom−0.1−0.6−0.2−0.3−1.6−1.0−0.1−0.7−1.2−0.4−0.2−0.1
Canada0.10.10.3−1.71.71.40.60.7−0.1−2.40.1
Other advanced economies−0.20.8−0.10.72.20.50.81.00.31.20.80.5
Memorandum
Major advanced economies−0.20.1−0.7−0.7−0.2−0.2−0.40.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies−0.61.5−0.51.15.60.60.71.31.33.21.70.5

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

Table 4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(Percent)
Ten-Year Averages1
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Unemployment rate
Advanced economies6.96.57.16.96.86.45.85.96.46.66.36.1
United States26.25.05.44.94.54.24.04.85.86.05.55.4
Euro area9.310.810.810.29.48.58.08.58.99.08.7
Germany7.38.98.79.79.18.47.87.98.79.69.79.5
France10.310.011.911.811.410.79.38.58.99.49.49.0
Italy11.210.111.611.711.811.410.69.59.08.78.38.2
Spain19.914.622.220.818.715.713.910.511.411.311.110.3
Netherlands6.94.26.65.54.23.22.62.02.54.35.35.8
Belgium8.48.29.59.29.38.66.96.77.38.18.38.3
Austria3.34.24.44.44.54.03.73.64.34.44.44.2
Finland8.810.314.612.611.410.29.89.19.19.08.88.5
Greece8.210.19.89.811.111.911.110.510.09.08.98.8
Portugal6.05.77.36.75.04.43.94.15.16.47.16.8
Ireland15.06.111.910.37.65.64.33.94.44.74.44.1
Luxembourg1.83.43.33.33.12.92.62.62.93.84.54.8
Japan32.54.53.43.44.14.74.75.05.45.34.74.5
United Kingdom8.95.88.17.16.36.05.55.15.25.04.84.8
Canada9.57.89.69.18.37.66.87.27.77.67.26.8
Korea2.74.02.12.67.06.44.23.83.13.43.53.6
Australia8.46.88.28.27.76.96.36.86.46.15.75.7
Taiwan Province of China1.73.82.62.72.72.93.04.65.25.04.74.5
Sweden4.15.68.08.06.55.64.74.04.04.95.65.0
Switzerland1.83.04.14.53.52.51.81.72.53.53.43.0
Hong Kong SAR1.95.42.82.24.76.25.05.17.37.96.75.8
Denmark9.86.18.67.86.45.55.14.94.95.85.95.6
Norway4.63.94.94.13.23.23.43.53.94.54.34.0
Israel8.49.26.67.78.58.98.89.310.310.810.710.1
Singapore3.13.42.01.83.23.53.13.34.44.74.33.9
New Zealand7.35.76.16.67.46.86.05.35.24.74.65.0
Cyprus2.73.33.13.43.43.63.42.93.23.53.43.2
Iceland2.42.74.43.92.81.91.31.42.53.33.02.3
Memorandum
Major advanced economies6.76.36.76.66.36.15.75.96.56.76.46.2
Newly industrialized Asian economies2.44.02.32.65.45.33.94.14.14.34.14.1
Growth in employment
Advanced economies1.21.11.01.41.11.42.10.70.30.60.91.2
United States1.51.31.52.31.51.52.5−0.30.91.21.8
Euro area1.00.50.91.81.82.21.40.50.10.50.9
Germany0.60.2−0.3−0.21.11.22.00.3−0.5−1.1−0.40.3
France0.41.00.40.41.52.02.71.70.70.30.9
Italy−0.31.10.50.41.11.31.92.11.51.00.80.5
Spain1.63.42.63.34.15.55.53.72.02.72.42.7
Japan31.1−0.20.41.1−0.7−0.8−0.2−0.6−1.2−0.20.30.2
United Kingdom0.31.00.91.81.01.31.10.80.70.90.70.5
Canada1.42.00.82.32.72.82.61.12.22.21.81.7
Other advanced economies2.01.41.61.2−0.51.62.81.11.71.01.61.5
Memorandum
Major advanced economies1.00.90.81.41.01.11.80.3−0.10.50.71.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies2.71.32.11.8−2.91.53.51.02.00.31.71.7
Growth in real per capita GDP
Advanced economies2.32.22.32.82.02.93.30.61.01.63.12.4
United States1.72.32.53.33.03.32.5−0.30.82.03.32.5
Euro area1.81.22.22.62.53.11.10.2−0.21.91.9
Germany2.01.30.51.22.02.02.70.7−0.1−0.12.01.8
France1.61.80.71.53.22.83.71.60.62.21.9
Italy1.91.50.91.91.71.63.01.80.40.31.21.7
Spain2.82.72.33.84.13.83.22.21.61.92.02.3
Japan32.81.43.21.6−1.52.60.2−0.52.34.32.3
United Kingdom2.22.42.63.12.82.53.61.61.31.72.91.9
Canada1.02.40.63.23.24.74.30.72.31.12.01.9
Other advanced economies3.82.83.73.4−0.14.45.00.62.81.73.62.9
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.12.12.22.62.12.52.90.50.71.63.12.4
Newly industrialized Asian economies7.03.45.34.5−3.36.26.90.34.22.34.83.5

Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Table 5.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Other emerging market
and developing countries3.75.15.65.33.04.05.94.04.86.16.65.9
Regional groups
Africa1.93.95.73.23.12.72.94.03.54.34.55.4
Sub-Sahara1.93.95.33.92.32.73.13.93.63.74.65.8
Excluding Nigeria and
South Africa2.24.65.95.13.83.42.44.94.03.66.07.4
Central and eastern Europe0.83.64.84.22.80.44.90.24.44.55.54.8
Commonwealth of
Independent States14.1−3.91.1−3.55.19.16.45.47.88.06.6
Russia3.9−3.61.4−5.36.310.05.14.77.37.36.6
Excluding Russia4.7−4.50.50.82.26.99.47.09.09.66.5
Developing Asia7.76.68.26.54.16.26.75.56.67.77.66.9
China9.98.39.68.87.87.18.07.58.39.19.07.5
India5.76.07.55.05.86.75.43.95.07.26.46.7
Excluding China and India6.23.86.63.9−4.73.75.33.04.55.15.65.5
Middle East2.74.54.65.33.82.45.53.64.36.05.14.8
Western Hemisphere2.82.63.75.22.30.43.90.5−0.11.84.63.6
Brazil2.52.22.73.30.10.84.41.31.9−0.24.03.5
Mexico1.63.65.26.85.03.66.6−0.20.81.34.03.2
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel2.04.53.94.83.41.65.54.03.86.56.05.8
Nonfuel3.85.15.75.33.04.25.94.04.96.16.65.9
of which, primary products3.03.55.94.02.71.72.03.42.62.55.24.8
By external financing source
Net debtor countries3.14.05.34.51.82.94.72.53.44.65.45.2
of which, official financing4.33.86.24.2−1.92.84.44.03.94.75.35.3
Net debtor countries by debt-
servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1997−20012.33.54.23.8−0.61.94.53.73.53.35.45.1
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries2.04.85.44.74.04.44.25.54.63.45.95.5
Middle East and north Africa2.54.55.24.54.32.64.93.84.16.05.04.8
Memorandum
Real per capita GDP
Other emerging market and
developing countries1.93.74.03.81.52.54.42.63.44.85.34.6
Africa−0.91.63.20.80.80.40.61.71.32.12.33.3
Central and eastern Europe0.13.24.43.72.34.4−0.23.94.15.14.4
Commonwealth of Independent States14.3−3.81.2−3.35.39.46.65.68.18.26.8
Developing Asia5.95.36.75.02.74.85.34.25.36.56.45.7
Middle East−0.12.42.43.11.70.33.41.42.13.83.02.7
Western Hemisphere1.01.02.03.60.7−1.22.4−1.1−1.60.43.12.2

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 6.Other Emerging and Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
Average
1986−951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Africa1.95.73.23.12.72.94.03.54.34.55.4
Algeria0.43.81.15.13.22.12.64.06.84.54.4
Angola−0.911.27.96.83.23.03.114.43.411.215.5
Benin2.56.05.74.64.75.85.06.04.83.05.0
Botswana7.85.76.75.95.57.55.23.95.44.53.7
Burkina Faso4.89.96.88.53.71.66.84.68.04.85.3
Burundi0.6−8.04.7−0.9−1.12.24.5−0.55.45.7
Cameroon2−2.15.05.15.04.44.25.36.54.54.85.1
Cape Verde4.55.58.58.010.98.14.74.95.35.56.0
Central African Republic0.6−8.17.53.93.61.80.3−0.6−7.52.34.4
Chad3.83.14.27.7−1.71.99.110.59.730.812.0
Comoros1.2−1.34.21.21.92.42.32.32.11.83.5
Congo, Dem. Rep. of−3.7−1.1−5.4−1.7−4.3−6.9−2.13.55.66.37.0
Congo, Rep. of4.84.3−0.63.7−3.08.23.65.40.84.09.2
CÔte d’Ivoire1.67.75.74.81.6−2.30.1−1.6−2.81.74.3
Djibouti−1.2−4.1−0.70.12.20.71.92.63.54.14.6
Equatorial Guinea4.132.282.022.627.018.037.518.014.713.648.1
Eritrea9.37.91.8−13.19.20.73.01.80.7
Ethiopia3.010.25.1−1.46.05.47.71.6−3.911.65.7
Gabon1.93.65.73.5−8.9−1.92.02.81.50.7
Gambia, The3.06.14.96.56.45.55.8−3.26.77.15.0
Ghana4.84.64.24.74.43.74.24.55.25.25.0
Guinea4.15.15.04.84.61.93.84.21.22.63.8
Guinea-Bissau3.04.66.5−27.27.67.50.2−7.20.61.03.4
Kenya3.64.22.11.61.3−0.11.21.01.62.33.6
Lesotho5.39.54.8−3.50.51.93.33.73.23.03.4
Madagascar1.22.13.73.94.74.86.0−12.79.85.37.0
Malawi2.67.33.83.34.01.1−4.21.04.43.64.0
Mali3.77.45.38.43.0−3.212.14.36.04.55.6
Mauritania3.15.72.83.95.25.24.03.34.94.65.2
Mauritius7.15.26.06.05.32.77.64.32.74.44.8
Morocco2.712.2−2.27.7−0.11.06.33.25.53.04.0
Mozambique, Rep. of4.47.111.112.67.51.513.07.47.18.46.8
Namibia3.53.24.23.33.43.52.42.53.73.53.6
Niger1.63.42.810.4−0.6−1.47.13.05.34.14.1
Nigeria2.76.63.20.31.55.43.11.510.74.05.9
Rwanda−4.512.713.88.97.66.06.79.40.96.06.0
São Tomé and Príncipe0.11.51.02.52.53.04.04.14.56.56.5
Senegal2.35.13.34.56.23.04.71.16.56.05.8
Seychelles4.310.012.25.7−1.34.8−2.20.3−5.1−2.01.0
Sierra Leone−1.4−24.8−17.6−0.8−8.13.818.526.89.47.27.0
South Africa1.34.32.60.82.03.52.73.61.92.63.3
Sudan3.76.39.35.76.56.96.16.06.06.67.6
Swaziland6.53.93.83.33.61.91.73.62.21.51.3
Tanzania3.74.53.53.73.55.16.27.27.16.36.5
Togo1.77.13.5−2.32.4−0.8−0.24.22.73.02.8
Tunisia3.47.15.44.86.14.74.91.75.65.65.0
Uganda5.69.15.53.68.15.64.96.84.75.76.0
Zambia−0.86.93.3−1.92.23.64.93.35.13.54.5
Zimbabwe2.99.71.40.5−3.6−7.9−2.8−11.1−9.3−5.21.8
Central and eastern Europe30.84.84.22.80.44.90.24.44.55.54.8
Albania−1.29.1−10.212.710.17.37.64.76.06.26.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina61.930.015.89.65.54.45.52.75.04.0
Bulgaria−3.5−8.0−5.64.02.35.44.14.94.35.25.2
Croatia5.96.82.5−0.92.94.45.24.33.74.1
Czech Republic4.3−0.8−1.00.53.32.61.53.13.33.4
Estonia4.510.55.2−0.17.86.47.25.15.85.4
Hungary−0.91.34.64.94.25.23.83.52.93.53.7
Latvia3.88.34.73.36.98.06.47.56.56.0
Lithuania4.77.07.3−1.73.96.46.89.07.07.0
Macedonia, FYR1.21.43.44.44.5−4.50.93.14.04.5
Malta5.94.04.93.44.16.4−1.21.2−1.71.31.7
Serbia and Montenegro7.32.5−18.05.05.54.03.04.44.5
Poland1.66.06.84.84.14.01.01.43.85.85.1
Romania−2.03.9−6.1−4.8−1.22.15.75.04.95.05.0
Slovak Republic6.14.64.21.52.03.84.44.24.84.3
Slovenia3.64.83.65.63.92.73.42.33.94.1
Turkey4.46.97.63.1−4.77.4−7.57.95.87.05.0
Commonwealth of
Independent States3,4−3.91.1−3.55.19.16.45.47.88.06.6
Russia−3.61.4−5.36.310.05.14.77.37.36.6
Excluding Russia−4.50.50.82.26.99.47.09.09.66.5
Armenia5.93.37.33.36.09.612.913.97.06.0
Azerbaijan1.35.810.07.411.19.910.611.29.111.4
Belarus2.811.48.43.45.84.75.06.86.45.5
Georgia10.510.62.93.01.94.75.511.18.56.0
Kazakhstan0.51.6−1.92.79.813.59.89.29.08.5
Kyrgyz Republic7.19.92.13.75.45.36.75.54.9
Moldova−5.91.6−6.5−3.42.16.17.86.35.04.0
Mongolia0.52.44.03.53.21.11.03.95.36.05.5
Tajikistan−4.41.75.33.78.310.29.110.210.08.0
Turkmenistan−6.7−11.36.716.418.620.419.816.97.57.0
Ukraine−10.0−3.0−1.9−0.25.99.25.39.412.56.0
Uzbekistan1.62.52.13.43.24.13.11.52.52.5
Developing Asia7.78.26.54.16.26.75.56.67.77.66.9
Afghanistan, I.S. of
Bangladesh4.15.05.35.05.45.64.84.95.45.55.7
Bhutan6.75.27.26.47.85.57.16.76.57.37.6
Brunei Darussalam2.02.6−4.02.62.83.12.83.11.12.2
Cambodia5.06.83.710.87.05.75.55.24.31.9
China9.99.68.87.87.18.07.58.39.19.07.5
Fiji3.33.1−0.91.59.5−3.24.34.45.23.23.0
India5.77.55.05.86.75.43.95.07.26.46.7
Indonesia6.88.04.5−13.10.84.93.53.74.14.85.0
Kiribati1.93.81.912.69.51.61.81.02.51.81.5
Lao PDR5.06.96.94.07.35.85.85.85.35.45.8
Malaysia8.210.07.3−7.46.18.90.34.15.36.56.3
Maldives7.59.110.49.87.24.83.56.58.45.04.7
Myanmar1.76.45.75.810.913.711.310.03.63.3
Nepal6.15.35.32.94.56.15.5−0.63.13.54.6
Pakistan5.22.91.83.14.03.42.74.46.26.36.0
Papua New Guinea4.97.7−3.9−3.87.6−1.2−2.3−0.82.72.52.9
Philippines3.45.85.2−0.63.44.41.84.34.75.24.2
Samoa2.37.30.82.42.66.96.21.83.13.23.2
Solomon Islands5.51.6−1.41.8−0.5−14.3−9.0−1.65.14.24.4
Sri Lanka4.43.86.44.74.36.0−1.53.95.95.05.0
Thailand9.55.9−1.4−10.54.44.82.15.46.86.26.4
Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of15.414.63.0−2.71.01.5
Tonga2.30.3−3.03.62.55.50.92.71.91.01.3
Vanuatu3.12.58.64.3−3.22.7−2.1−2.81.82.53.3
Vietnam6.59.38.23.54.25.55.05.86.07.07.0
Middle East2.74.65.33.82.45.53.64.36.05.14.8
Bahrain4.14.13.14.84.35.34.55.15.75.55.3
Egypt2.84.95.94.56.35.13.53.23.13.74.5
Iran, I.R. of1.47.13.42.71.95.13.77.56.66.65.2
Iraq
Jordan3.52.13.33.03.14.14.25.03.25.55.5
Kuwait2.50.62.53.6−1.71.90.6−0.410.12.82.3
Lebanon−3.64.04.03.01.0−0.52.02.03.05.04.0
Libya−1.02.74.8−1.2−0.40.71.02.79.85.44.8
Oman4.42.96.22.7−0.25.57.51.71.42.53.6
Qatar1.34.531.111.74.59.14.57.33.39.35.0
Saudi Arabia3.41.42.62.8−0.74.90.50.17.23.63.9
Syrian Arab Republic4.39.85.06.8−3.60.63.84.22.63.64.0
United Arab Emirates3.46.18.31.44.412.33.51.97.03.64.5
Yemen7.46.45.33.54.44.63.93.22.72.7
Western Hemisphere2.83.75.22.30.43.90.5−0.11.84.63.6
Antigua and Barbuda4.26.15.65.04.93.31.52.12.51.00.5
Argentina2.85.58.13.8−3.4−0.8−4.4−10.98.87.04.0
Bahamas, The1.04.23.33.05.94.9−3.1−0.11.93.03.5
Barbados0.83.24.66.20.52.4−3.4−0.52.23.02.5
Belize7.81.53.63.78.812.34.94.39.43.03.3
Bolivia3.14.45.05.00.42.31.52.82.53.84.5
Brazil2.52.73.30.10.84.41.31.9−0.24.03.5
Chile7.77.46.63.2−0.84.53.42.23.34.94.7
Colombia4.62.13.40.6−4.22.91.41.63.74.04.0
Costa Rica5.30.95.68.48.21.81.02.95.63.83.5
Dominica3.63.12.02.81.61.4−4.2−4.71.02.0
Dominican Republic3.57.28.37.38.17.84.04.3−0.4−1.03.2
Ecuador2.72.44.12.1−6.32.85.13.32.65.44.0
El Salvador2.71.74.23.73.42.21.72.21.82.02.5
Grenada3.73.14.07.37.56.5−3.3−0.52.54.54.6
Guatemala3.63.04.45.03.83.62.32.22.22.63.1
Guyana2.67.96.2−1.73.0−1.32.3−0.5−0.82.4
Haiti−1.54.12.72.22.70.9−1.0−0.50.4−5.03.0
Honduras3.33.65.02.9−1.95.72.62.73.23.84.0
Jamaica2.6−1.2−1.4−0.4−0.20.91.11.52.21.61.6
Mexico1.65.26.85.03.66.6−0.20.81.34.03.2
Netherlands Antilles2.11.3−0.50.7−0.7−2.00.60.41.41.01.5
Nicaragua−0.66.34.03.77.04.23.01.02.33.73.8
Panama2.47.46.47.44.02.70.62.24.15.33.7
Paraguay3.61.32.6−0.40.5−0.42.7−2.32.62.12.5
Peru2.02.56.8−0.60.92.80.34.94.14.54.5
St. Kitts and Nevis5.26.56.81.13.54.13.32.12.12.42.3
St. Lucia5.91.70.63.42.80.1−4.32.32.01.5
St. Vincent and the Grenadines5.01.43.95.23.01.30.91.12.22.83.3
Suriname0.21.35.72.3−1.41.84.32.85.15.32.2
Trinidad and Tobago−0.43.82.87.84.47.34.07.113.16.26.3
Uruguay3.95.65.04.5−2.8−1.4−3.4−11.02.510.03.5
Venezuela3.0−0.26.40.3−6.03.73.4−8.9−7.612.13.5

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July−June to January−December).

Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July−June to January−December).

Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 7.Summary of Inflation(Percent)
Ten-Year Averages
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005
GDP deflators
Advanced economies3.51.61.91.71.30.91.41.81.61.41.71.9
United States2.81.91.91.71.11.42.22.41.71.82.22.6
Euro area1.82.9−0.11.21.71.42.42.52.12.22.0
Japan11.2−1.3−0.80.3−0.1−1.5−2.0−1.5−1.2−2.5−2.5−1.3
Other advanced economies24.82.13.12.61.91.12.01.91.71.92.22.2
Consumer prices
Advanced economies3.61.92.42.01.51.42.12.11.51.82.12.1
United States3.52.52.92.31.52.23.42.81.62.33.33.0
Euro area31.92.21.61.11.12.02.42.32.12.21.9
Japan11.4−0.11.70.6−0.3−0.9−0.8−0.9−0.2−0.2−0.1
Other advanced economies4.72.02.92.22.21.21.82.11.71.81.12.1
Other emerging market and
developing countries58.28.818.111.611.310.47.36.86.06.16.05.5
Regional groups
Central and eastern Europe59.221.737.352.033.023.323.019.614.89.26.65.9
Commonwealth of
Independent States424.355.518.123.969.624.520.313.812.09.98.7
Developing Asia11.24.18.24.97.82.51.92.72.12.64.44.1
Middle East17.79.614.411.010.511.08.57.17.58.09.98.7
Western Hemisphere196.29.119.511.58.57.36.76.09.010.66.66.1
Memorandum
European Union9.72.33.52.62.11.72.42.52.22.02.22.0
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel25.815.036.717.915.015.012.310.811.011.411.1110.6
Nonfuel61.58.416.711.111.010.06.96.55.65.75.55.1
of which, primary products51.717.733.319.810.619.824.420.811.715.311.1112.1
By external financing source
Net debtor countries70.110.218.313.515.010.69.28.48.27.56.66.1
of which, official financing24.411.614.99.923.612.87.511.510.09.18.88.4
Net debtor countries by debt-
servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1997−2001165.412.823.411.816.614.012.111.710.311.99.98.2
Memorandum
Median inflation rate
Advanced economies3.62.02.21.81.61.42.62.52.12.21.11.9
Other emerging market and
developing countries10.25.18.57.06.24.14.34.83.44.54.44.0

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 8.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quater1
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005200320042005
GDP deflators
Advanced economies3.51.61.91.71.30.91.41.81.61.41.71.9
United States2.81.91.91.71.11.42.22.41.71.82.42.61.73.02.3
Euro area1.82.9−0.11.21.71.42.42.52.12.02.01.92.01.8
Germany3.70.91.00.71.10.5−0.31.31.51.11.11.21.21.21.2
France2.81.41.41.30.80.40.71.72.41.42.01.91.42.21.8
Italy6.02.85.32.42.71.62.22.63.12.92.72.62.82.41.9
Spain6.43.43.52.32.42.83.44.24.54.03.73.63.83.73.3
Netherlands1.52.51.22.01.71.63.95.23.13.01.71.32.32.20.3
Belgium2.81.61.21.41.71.41.21.81.71.71.71.92.01.62.3
Austria2.91.31.30.90.50.71.42.11.42.01.51.52.11.61.5
Finland4.21.3−0.32.13.5−0.23.23.00.9−0.10.41.1−0.1−0.73.0
Greece15.64.37.46.85.23.03.43.53.93.53.23.13.92.81.9
Portugal10.03.33.03.83.83.13.54.44.52.32.02.72.0−0.14.6
Ireland3.13.82.14.16.43.84.85.74.51.62.72.51.13.21.8
Luxembourg2.62.32.02.72.72.24.11.90.72.12.12.1
Japan21.2−1.3−0.80.3−0.1−1.5−2.0−1.5−1.2−2.5−2.5−1.3−2.7−2.0−1.1
United Kingdom4.72.73.22.92.82.31.32.23.23.02.72.92.93.72.1
Canada2.91.91.61.2−0.41.74.11.11.03.23.02.22.23.52.0
Korea7.53.15.14.65.8−0.10.73.52.82.33.52.42.33.91.9
Australia4.22.32.11.40.50.64.43.62.43.03.31.93.52.11.5
Taiwan Province of China2.70.33.11.72.6−1.4−1.70.6−1.0−2.10.11.4−2.52.61.3
Sweden5.31.51.21.60.80.71.32.31.42.31.11.91.90.82.1
Switzerland2.90.6−0.1−0.1−0.30.70.80.61.01.21.01.12.30.91.0
Hong Kong SAR7.8−1.35.95.70.2−5.9−6.2−1.9−3.6−5.2−2.51.3−4.8−2.14.1
Denmark3.22.02.52.21.01.83.02.11.62.21.61.62.40.81.9
Norway2.73.74.12.9−0.76.615.91.1−1.62.35.21.92.18.0−2.1
Israel18.94.111.78.66.46.60.92.24.4−0.3−0.31.4−2.11.41.7
Singapore2.71.10.4−2.3−4.74.3−1.60.4−0.41.81.6−1.11.81.6
New Zealand4.72.21.91.41.61.02.54.50.61.83.72.83.74.42.3
Cyprus4.62.91.82.72.52.24.52.32.85.32.22.6
Iceland12.03.72.03.54.92.82.99.45.3−0.44.42.1
Memorandum
Major advanced economies3.01.41.61.41.10.91.21.61.41.31.51.81.12.01.6
Newly industrialized Asian
economies5.71.54.33.53.5−1.5−0.71.60.7−0.21.61.9−0.22.82.0
Consumer prices
Advanced economies3.61.92.42.01.51.42.12.11.51.82.12.1
United States3.52.52.92.31.52.23.42.81.62.33.03.01.94.12.3
Euro area31.92.21.61.11.12.02.42.32.12.11.92.12.11.8
Germany2.41.31.21.50.60.61.41.91.31.01.81.31.22.21.2
France2.71.72.11.30.70.61.81.81.92.22.42.12.42.42.1
Italy5.42.44.01.92.01.72.62.32.62.82.12.02.72.02.0
Spain5.92.83.71.92.22.42.52.63.93.02.82.72.72.92.7
Japan21.4−0.11.70.6−0.3−0.9−0.8−0.9−0.2−0.2−0.1−0.2−0.10.1
United Kingdom34.31.52.51.81.61.40.81.21.31.41.61.91.42.01.8
Canada3.32.01.61.61.01.72.72.52.32.71.92.21.72.42.0
Other advanced economies5.32.23.42.62.90.92.02.41.71.82.02.3
Memorandum
Major advanced economies3.21.82.22.01.21.42.11.91.31.72.12.11.52.71.8
Newly industrialized Asian
economies5.02.24.33.34.41.11.90.91.42.42.61.52.82.4

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Table 9.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Hourly earnings
Advanced economies5.13.83.32.93.53.05.63.03.94.93.93.6
United States3.65.02.22.06.23.99.02.56.78.55.54.0
Euro area3.04.33.11.52.54.03.43.22.82.22.9
Germany5.92.74.91.91.52.35.23.02.01.72.22.5
France3.92.72.32.10.61.14.32.53.72.53.34.0
Italy7.02.85.84.2−1.42.33.13.32.33.12.22.7
Spain7.03.95.74.53.32.72.84.05.25.13.33.0
Japan3.70.91.83.10.9−0.71.0−1.11.01.12.5
United Kingdom7.14.14.44.24.64.04.74.33.53.64.44.2
Canada3.92.61.02.21.83.73.32.81.03.23.33.5
Other advanced economies9.34.86.74.83.25.45.75.53.03.95.54.8
Memorandum
Major advanced economies4.53.62.82.53.62.75.82.54.05.23.33.5
Newly industrialized Asian economies13.56.09.95.62.67.56.66.52.95.76.66.3
Productivity
Advanced economies3.13.32.83.92.33.65.10.84.23.93.62.9
United States2.94.13.63.64.83.64.52.37.05.13.33.0
Euro area2.41.94.42.61.94.50.51.62.22.22.3
Germany3.42.53.04.11.60.25.1−0.32.42.92.22.8
France3.63.81.05.65.52.97.32.22.33.13.34.1
Italy3.20.5−0.62.7−0.61.53.8−0.8−2.0−0.90.01.4
Spain3.21.30.62.71.41.40.32.23.60.00.3
Japan2.33.13.85.0−3.63.26.8−3.13.65.56.64.1
United Kingdom3.73.00.21.51.24.46.33.51.45.14.42.2
Canada2.12.3−2.43.41.75.76.3−1.82.81.32.22.9
Other advanced economies3.93.84.84.51.48.26.20.53.82.53.32.8
Memorandum
Major advanced economies3.03.42.63.82.43.15.30.94.44.23.33.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies7.35.67.84.90.113.710.00.65.64.25.54.3
Unit labor costs
Advanced economies2.00.50.6−0.91.3−0.60.42.2−0.21.00.20.7
United States0.70.8−1.3−1.61.30.34.30.2−0.33.21.11.0
Euro area0.62.4−1.2−1.00.5−0.52.81.50.70.00.6
Germany2.50.21.9−2.12.10.13.3−0.4−1.2−0.8−0.3
France0.3−1.01.3−3.3−4.7−1.8−2.80.31.4−0.5−0.1−0.1
Italy3.62.36.41.5−0.80.8−0.74.14.44.02.21.3
Spain3.72.65.11.71.91.22.44.02.91.42.22.7
Japan1.4−2.1−1.9−1.84.6−3.8−6.44.2−4.5−4.3−5.1−1.5
United Kingdom3.31.14.22.63.3−0.4−1.60.82.1−1.5−0.12.0
Canada1.70.43.4−1.2−1.9−2.84.7−1.71.81.10.5
Other advanced economies5.21.02.30.62.2−2.5−0.64.8−0.91.01.11.8
Memorandum
Major advanced economies1.50.30.3−1.31.2−0.40.51.7−0.40.90.5
Newly industrialized Asian economies5.70.32.81.13.2−5.2−3.45.4−2.60.70.01.5
Table 10.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1986−951996−20051996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Other emerging market and
developing countries58.28.818.111.611.310.47.36.86.06.16.05.5
Regional groups
Africa27.412.328.213.58.911.613.112.09.710.38.88.1
Sub-Sahara32.415.033.916.510.414.716.915.012.112.99.99.6
Excluding Nigeria and South Africa49.222.360.024.713.223.928.421.613.918.014.1412.0
Central and eastern Europe59.221.737.352.033.023.323.019.614.89.26.65.9
Commonwealth of
Independent States124.355.518.123.969.624.520.313.812.09.98.7
Russia25.047.714.827.785.720.821.515.813.710.108.9
Excluding Russia22.775.826.515.936.934.017.69.38.38.88.2
Developing Asia11.24.18.24.97.82.51.92.72.12.64.44.1
China11.71.78.32.8−0.8−1.40.40.7−0.81.24.43.0
India9.45.99.07.213.24.74.03.84.33.84.45.0
Excluding China and India11.67.47.46.620.98.72.85.96.44.85.55.6
Middle East17.79.614.411.010.511.08.57.17.58.09.98.7
Western Hemisphere196.29.119.511.58.57.36.76.09.010.66.66.1
Brazil716.18.016.06.93.24.97.16.88.414.86.65.9
Mexico41.211.834.420.615.916.69.56.45.04.54.44.0
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel25.815.036.717.915.015.012.310.811.011.411.1110.6
Nonfuel61.58.416.711.111.010.06.96.55.65.75.55.1
of which, primary products51.717.733.319.810.619.824.420.811.715.311.1112.1
By external financing source
Net debtor countries70.110.218.313.515.010.69.28.48.27.56.66.1
of which, official financing24.411.614.99.923.612.87.511.510.09.18.88.4
Net debtor countries by debt-
servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1997−2001165.412.823.411.816.614.012.111.710.311.99.98.2
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries56.316.842.022.013.617.518.417.911.811.38.88.4
Middle East and north Africa17.88.616.110.59.39.27.06.16.46.78.87.4
Memorandum
Median
Other emerging market and
developing countries10.25.18.57.06.24.14.34.83.44.54.44.0
Africa10.85.27.36.15.24.75.35.04.35.35.54.0
Central and eastern Europe49.36.217.68.88.23.36.25.53.32.33.33.2
Commonwealth of Independent States115.346.817.410.523.518.711.65.95.66.65.7
Developing Asia8.64.77.26.28.34.22.53.83.33.24.43.8
Middle East7.22.86.83.33.02.11.01.71.62.33.32.5
Western Hemisphere13.34.77.16.54.73.54.83.25.04.54.43.5

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 11.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
Average
1986−951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Africa27.428.213.58.911.613.112.09.710.38.48.1
Algeria17.718.75.75.02.60.34.21.42.65.54.6
Angola184.64,146.0221.5107.4248.2325.0152.6108.998.356.5616.5
Benin5.94.93.85.80.34.24.02.41.52.23.0
Botswana13.110.39.47.66.97.97.25.54.74.44.5
Burkina Faso2.86.12.45.0−1.1−0.34.92.32.01.12.0
Burundi8.926.431.112.53.424.39.3−1.310.79.97.6
Cameroon24.56.65.22.90.82.86.30.60.01.9
Cape Verde7.26.08.64.43.9−2.43.81.81.21.12.0
Central African Republic2.53.71.6−1.9−1.43.23.82.34.20.02.5
Chad2.111.35.64.3−8.43.812.45.2−1.8−5.03.0
Comoros2.02.03.03.56.34.55.93.34.53.33.5
Congo, Dem. Rep. of648.2617.0199.029.1284.9550.0357.325.312.85.55.0
Congo, Rep. of2.97.413.11.83.10.40.83.11.22.22.0
CÔte d’Ivoire6.72.74.24.50.72.54.43.13.31.12.0
Djibouti6.33.52.52.22.02.41.80.62.02.22.0
Equatorial Guinea2.56.04.53.76.06.56.08.87.68.86.0
Eritrea10.33.79.58.419.914.616.922.721.2120.5
Ethiopia7.60.9−6.43.64.86.2−5.2−7.215.19.95.4
Gabon4.14.54.12.3−0.70.42.10.22.12.22.0
Gambia, The14.34.83.11.13.80.94.58.617.014.146.2
Ghana28.946.627.914.612.425.232.914.826.710.106.0
Guinea21.93.01.95.14.66.85.43.012.916.1613.8
Guinea-Bissau53.150.749.18.0−2.18.63.33.33.03.33.0
Kenya15.98.911.96.75.810.05.82.09.88.84.0
Lesotho13.39.18.57.88.66.16.911.27.66.65.5
Madagascar19.119.84.56.29.98.86.916.2−1.110.105.0
Malawi25.537.79.129.844.829.627.214.99.619.1920.0
Mali2.16.5−0.74.1−1.2−0.75.25.0−1.32.23.0
Mauritania7.24.74.58.04.13.34.73.95.57.73.8
Mauritius7.25.97.95.47.95.34.46.45.03.34.0
Morocco5.43.01.02.70.71.90.62.81.22.22.0
Mozambique, Rep. of54.644.66.40.62.912.79.016.813.512.127.8
Namibia12.58.08.86.28.69.39.311.37.25.56.4
Niger2.55.32.94.5−2.32.94.02.7−1.60.02.0
Nigeria33.229.38.510.06.66.918.013.714.415.1511.4
Rwanda13.913.411.76.8−2.43.93.42.07.46.64.0
São Tomé and Príncipe35.742.069.042.112.212.29.210.19.813.1314.5
Senegal3.42.81.61.20.80.93.02.30.02.2
Seychelles1.8−1.10.62.76.36.26.00.27.05.54.0
Sierra Leone64.723.114.636.034.1−0.92.6−3.78.212.124.7
South Africa13.37.38.66.95.25.45.79.25.82.25.7
Sudan78.0132.846.717.116.08.04.98.37.76.66.0
Swaziland12.26.47.97.55.99.97.511.97.34.47.7
Tanzania29.120.515.413.29.06.25.24.64.54.44.0
Togo5.24.65.31.0−0.11.93.93.1−0.92.22.5
Tunisia6.53.73.73.12.73.01.92.82.83.32.7
Uganda62.97.75.80.25.84.5−2.05.75.13.33.5
Zambia86.943.124.424.526.826.121.722.221.518.1817.4
Zimbabwe19.921.418.831.758.555.976.7140.0431.7350.350450.0
Central and eastern Europe359.237.352.033.023.323.019.614.89.26.95.9
Albania26.912.732.120.90.43.15.22.43.33.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina−11.55.6−0.42.95.03.20.30.20.01.7
Bulgaria51.0123.01,061.218.82.610.47.55.82.36.63.6
Croatia3.53.65.74.16.24.92.31.52.23.5
Czech Republic8.88.510.62.13.94.81.80.13.33.0
Estonia23.111.28.23.34.05.83.61.33.32.5
Hungary19.923.518.314.310.09.89.25.34.76.64.4
Latvia17.68.44.62.42.62.51.92.95.53.5
Lithuania24.78.85.10.81.01.30.3−1.20.02.5
Macedonia, FYR2.32.6−0.1−2.06.25.32.41.22.23.0
Malta2.42.03.12.42.12.13.22.21.33.32.0
Poland77.919.914.911.87.310.15.51.90.83.33.8
Romania71.338.8154.859.145.845.734.522.515.311.117.2
Serbia and Montenegro29.542.169.991.121.211.37.76.9
Slovak Republic5.86.16.710.712.07.33.38.57.73.0
Slovenia9.98.47.96.28.98.47.55.63.33.2
Turkey66.082.385.784.664.954.954.445.025.311.1110.8
Commonwealth of Independent States3,455.518.123.969.624.520.313.812.09.98.7
Russia47.714.827.785.720.821.515.813.710.108.9
Excluding Russia75.826.515.936.934.017.69.38.38.88.2
Armenia18.714.08.60.6−0.83.11.14.83.33.0
Azerbaijan19.83.7−0.8−8.51.81.52.82.25.55.0
Belarus52.763.873.0293.7168.661.142.628.419.1917.4
Georgia39.37.03.619.14.04.75.64.85.54.8
Kazakhstan39.117.47.38.413.48.35.96.46.66.7
Kyrgyz Republic32.023.410.535.918.76.92.13.14.44.6
Moldova23.511.87.739.331.39.85.311.710.105.8
Mongolia44.446.836.69.47.611.611.66.30.95.55.0
Tajikistan418.288.043.227.532.938.612.216.47.75.7
Turkmenistan992.483.716.823.58.011.68.85.65.55.1
Ukraine80.215.910.622.728.212.00.85.28.88.1
Uzbekistan54.070.916.744.649.547.544.314.811.1110.5
Developing Asia11.28.24.97.82.51.92.72.12.64.54.1
Afghanistan, I.S. of
Bangladesh8.12.55.08.66.22.21.53.85.46.66.1
Bhutan10.17.49.09.09.23.63.62.71.83.34.0
Brunei Darussalam2.01.7−0.41.20.6−2.30.31.11.3
Cambodia7.18.014.84.0−0.80.23.31.22.22.9
China11.78.32.8−0.8−1.40.40.7−0.81.24.43.0
Fiji5.14.93.45.92.01.14.31.92.02.22.5
India9.49.07.213.24.74.03.84.33.84.45.0
Indonesia8.27.96.258.020.73.811.511.86.86.66.5
Kiribati2.7−1.52.23.71.80.46.03.21.42.22.5
Lao PDR12.619.119.590.1128.423.27.810.615.511.115.6
Malaysia2.73.52.75.32.71.51.41.81.12.22.5
Maldives10.46.27.6−1.43.0−1.20.70.9−2.80.02.8
Myanmar23.720.033.949.110.9−1.734.558.137.027.2737.5
Nepal11.77.28.18.311.43.42.42.94.73.33.8
Pakistan9.010.411.46.54.14.43.13.22.94.44.5
Papua New Guinea6.111.63.913.614.915.69.311.814.77.76.0
Philippines8.99.05.99.86.74.36.13.13.05.56.8
Samoa5.45.46.92.20.31.03.88.14.22.22.3
Solomon Islands12.311.88.012.38.06.97.69.410.15.52.5
Sri Lanka11.415.99.69.44.76.214.29.66.36.69.4
Thailand4.45.95.68.10.31.61.70.61.82.21.8
Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of63.63.64.87.14.43.2
Tonga8.22.7−31.23.03.95.36.910.411.111.1110.0
Vanuatu6.00.92.83.32.22.53.71.12.83.33.0
Vietnam101.85.73.27.74.2−1.6−0.44.03.26.63.5
Middle East17.714.411.010.511.08.57.17.58.09.28.7
Bahrain0.3−0.14.6−0.4−1.3−3.6−1.2−0.50.61.11.2
Egypt17.07.16.24.73.82.82.42.43.25.55.7
Iran, I.R. of25.523.217.318.120.112.611.415.815.615.1515.0
Iraq
Jordan4.86.53.03.10.60.71.81.82.33.31.8
Kuwait7.93.60.70.13.01.81.71.41.21.11.6
Lebanon83.28.97.74.50.2−0.4−0.41.81.33.32.0
Libya7.14.03.63.72.6−2.9−8.8−9.9−2.12.23.0
Oman2.80.5−0.5−0.50.5−1.2−1.1−0.6−0.41.10.7
Qatar2.88.81.12.92.21.71.41.02.33.33.0
Saudi Arabia0.70.9−0.4−0.2−1.3−0.6−0.8−0.60.52.20.8
Syrian Arab Republic20.88.91.9−1.0−3.7−3.93.00.65.05.54.5
United Arab Emirates4.43.02.92.02.11.42.83.12.83.32.1
Yemen35.240.04.611.58.010.911.912.210.815.1515.2
Western Hemisphere196.219.511.58.57.36.76.09.010.66.56.1
Antigua and Barbuda4.23.00.23.41.10.71.02.22.52.22.5
Argentina212.80.20.50.9−1.2−0.9−1.125.913.44.47.1
Bahamas, The4.41.40.51.31.31.62.02.12.82.22.0
Barbados3.42.17.7−1.31.62.42.80.21.51.12.0
Belize2.36.41.0−0.9−1.20.61.22.22.52.22.2
Bolivia28.012.44.77.72.24.61.60.93.33.33.5
Brazil716.116.06.93.24.97.16.88.414.86.65.9
Chile16.67.46.15.13.33.83.62.52.81.12.9
Colombia24.820.818.518.710.99.28.06.37.16.65.0
Costa Rica18.117.513.211.710.011.011.39.29.410.109.5
Dominica3.41.72.41.01.2−7.31.60.11.62.21.5
Dominican Republic22.05.48.34.86.57.78.95.227.455.5518.6
Ecuador−0.74.1−0.6−29.2−7.737.712.67.93.32.7
El Salvador18.29.84.52.5−1.04.31.42.82.54.42.8
Grenada2.62.81.31.40.52.23.23.02.52.22.5
Guatemala16.111.09.26.64.95.18.96.35.97.75.0
Guyana36.27.13.64.78.55.91.95.46.04.43.5
Haiti15.821.916.212.78.111.516.88.732.528.2817.5
Honduras14.623.820.213.711.611.09.77.77.77.76.8
Jamaica27.821.59.18.16.37.78.06.57.07.77.0
Mexico41.234.420.615.916.69.56.45.04.54.44.0
Netherlands Antilles2.63.43.11.20.85.01.80.41.92.22.5
Nicaragua811.97.711.211.69.213.011.211.57.44.45.2
Panama0.81.31.30.61.31.40.31.01.42.22.3
Paraguay23.09.87.011.66.89.07.310.514.25.55.3
Peru288.311.86.56.03.73.7−0.11.52.53.32.5
St. Kitts and Nevis2.42.08.73.73.42.12.12.11.41.11.6
St. Lucia3.60.92.83.53.62.1−0.21.01.11.0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines3.14.40.52.11.00.20.81.00.32.22.0
Suriname66.7−0.87.319.198.758.639.815.523.19.910.0
Trinidad and Tobago8.13.33.6−0.53.45.63.24.33.04.43.0
Uruguay69.328.319.810.85.74.84.414.019.49.99.3
Venezuela40.699.950.035.823.616.212.522.431.123.2331.3

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July−June to January−December).

For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July−June to January−December).

For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 12.Summary Financial Indicators(Percent)
1996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Advanced economies
Central government fiscal balance1
Advanced economies−2.8−1.6−1.1−1.10.2−1.0−2.5−2.9−3.2−2.8
United States−1.8−0.60.51.22.00.5−2.4−3.3−4.0−3.3
Euro area−3.7−2.6−2.5−1.7−0.4−1.6−2.0−2.3−2.2−2.0
Japan−4.4−4.0−3.8−8.5−6.9−6.3−7.0−6.8−6.5−6.3
Other advanced economies2−1.6−0.4−0.10.42.30.6−0.3−0.7−1.0−0.8
General government fiscal balance1
Advanced economies−3.4−1.9−1.4−1.0−1.5−3.4−3.9−3.9−3.4
United States−2.5−1.10.10.61.3−0.7−4.0−4.6−4.94.3
Euro area−4.3−2.7−2.3−1.3−0.9−1.7−2.3−2.8−2.9−2.5
Japan−5.1−3.8−5.5−7.2−7.5−6.1−7.9−8.2−6.9−6.5
Other advanced economies2−2.4−0.6−0.10.62.60.4−0.7−1.2−1.3−0.9
General government structural balance3
Advanced economies−3.1−1.8−1.5−1.2−1.0−1.5−2.9−3.1−3.3−3.0
Growth of broad money4
Advanced economies4.95.06.75.95.08.75.75.2
United States4.65.68.46.26.110.26.75.3
Euro area54.14.54.85.44.211.26.76.5
Japan3.03.94.02.71.93.31.81.6
Other advanced economies29.66.19.49.06.97.36.26.3
Short-term interest rates6
United States5.15.24.94.86.03.51.61.01.12.8
Euro area55.24.44.13.04.44.23.32.42.23.1
Japan0.30.30.20.00.20.00.00.00.00.2
LIBOR5.65.95.65.56.63.71.91.21.13.4
Other emerging market and developing countries
Central government fiscal balance1
Weighted average−2.6−2.9−3.8−3.8−2.9−3.2−3.4−2.8−2.2−1.9
Median−2.5−2.5−3.0−3.2−2.7−3.7−3.7−2.9−2.7−2.3
General government fiscal balance1
Weighted average−3.5−3.8−4.8−4.8−3.6−4.0−4.4−3.6−2.8−2.5
Median−2.9−2.4−3.3−3.4−3.2−3.6−4.0−2.9−2.7−2.2
Growth of broad money
Weighted average29.918.317.018.215.014.615.817.014.1412.5
Median16.717.211.113.213.614.013.012.110.1010.0

Percent of GDP.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Percent of potential GDP.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs). Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for the euro area, a weighted average of national three-month money market interest rates through 1998 and three-month EURIBOR thereafter; and for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

Percent of GDP.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Percent of potential GDP.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs). Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for the euro area, a weighted average of national three-month money market interest rates through 1998 and three-month EURIBOR thereafter; and for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

Table 13.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(Percent of GDP)
1996199719981999200020012002200320042005
General government fiscal balance
Advanced economies3.41.91.41.01.53.43.93.93.4
United States−2.5−1.10.10.61.3−0.7−4.0−4.6−4.9−4.3
Euro area−4.3−2.7−2.3−1.3−0.9−1.7−2.3−2.8−2.9−2.5
Germany−3.4−2.7−2.2−1.51.3−2.8−3.7−3.8−3.9−3.3
France2−4.1−3.0−2.7−1.8−1.4−1.4−3.2−4.1−3.4−2.8
Italy−7.1−2.7−2.8−1.7−0.6−2.6−2.3−2.4−2.9−2.8
Spain−4.9−3.2−3.0−1.2−0.8−0.30.10.3−0.7
Netherlands−1.8−1.1−0.80.72.2−0.1−1.9−3.2−3.0−2.7
Belgium−3.8−2.0−0.8−0.50.10.50.2−0.2−0.4
Austria3−3.8−2.0−2.5−2.4−1.70.1−0.4−1.4−1.2−1.8
Finland−2.9−1.31.62.27.15.24.32.12.22.5
Greece−7.4−4.0−2.5−1.8−2.0−1.4−1.2−3.2−3.4−3.5
Portugal−4.0−3.0−2.6−2.8−2.9−4.4−2.7−2.8−4.1−4.0
Ireland4−0.11.52.32.54.41.1−0.20.2−0.3−0.5
Luxembourg1.93.23.23.76.36.32.7−0.1−2.1−2.7
Japan−5.1−3.8−5.5−7.2−7.5−6.1−7.9−8.2−6.9−6.5
United Kingdom−4.2−2.20.11.03.90.8−1.7−3.4−3.0−2.9
Canada−2.80.20.11.62.91.10.30.60.00.9
Korea5−1.5−3.9−3.01.10.62.32.81.10.9
Australia6−1.1−0.10.31.41.90.91.01.20.00.5
Taiwan Province of China−5.1−3.8−3.4−6.0−4.5−6.7−4.3−4.0−5.0−3.4
Sweden−2.8−1.01.92.35.12.9−0.30.50.00.6
Switzerland−2.0−2.4−0.4−0.22.2−1.2−1.9−2.5−1.9
Hong Kong SAR2.16.5−1.80.8−0.6−5.0−4.9−3.3−4.9−2.6
Denmark−1.00.41.13.22.52.81.61.21.11.4
Norway6.57.73.66.215.613.69.28.36.66.7
Israel−5.9−4.5−3.7−4.2−2.1−4.1−4.5−6.4−4.9−3.9
Singapore9.39.23.64.68.04.84.05.03.33.1
New Zealand72.72.22.11.51.31.61.72.94.43.5
Cyprus−3.4−5.3−4.3−4.5−2.4−2.4−4.6−6.3−5.3−3.0
Iceland−1.60.52.42.50.2−1.1−1.40.01.1
Memorandum
Major advanced economies−3.6−2.0−1.5−1.2−0.2−1.8−4.0−4.6−4.5−4.0
Newly industrialized Asian economies−1.60.2−2.2−3.2−2.1−4.9−3.4−2.7−3.9−2.4
Fiscal balance excluding social
security transactions
United States−2.7−1.5−0.6−0.40.2−1.5−4.4−5.0−5.2−4.7
Japan−6.8−5.5−6.9−8.2−8.0−6.2−7.7−7.7−6.4−5.9
Germany−3.1−2.8−2.4−1.81.3−2.6−3.4−3.5−3.5−3.1
France−3.6−2.6−2.6−2.1−1.9−1.7−3.0−3.4−2.4−2.1
Italy−5.3−0.71.32.73.41.31.91.61.11.3
Canada3.02.73.94.82.81.82.02.22.3
Central government fiscal balance
Advanced economies2.81.61.11.10.21.02.52.93.22.8
United States8−1.8−0.60.51.22.00.5−2.4−3.3−4.0−3.3
Euro area−3.7−2.6−2.5−1.7−0.4−1.6−2.0−2.3−2.2−2.0
Germany9−1.9−1.6−1.8−1.51.4−1.4−1.7−1.9−1.8−1.7
France−3.7−3.6−3.9−2.5−2.4−2.2−3.9−4.0−3.1−2.7
Italy−7.0−2.9−2.7−1.5−1.1−2.8−2.4−2.5−2.7−2.6
Spain−3.9−2.7−2.4−1.1−0.9−0.5−0.4−0.4−1.5−0.7
Japan10−4.4−4.0−3.8−8.5−6.9−6.3−7.0−6.8−6.5−6.3
United Kingdom−4.4−2.20.11.03.90.8−1.7−3.4−3.1−3.0
Canada−2.00.70.80.91.91.30.80.40.00.6
Other advanced economies0.10.3−0.6−0.21.60.30.10.4−0.5
Memorandum
Major advanced economies−3.0−1.7−1.0−1.20.1−1.2−3.0−3.6−3.7−3.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies1.00.8−1.1−1.00.8−0.9−0.5−1.4−0.7

On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included.

To maintain comparability, data exclude the impact of discharging future pension liabilities of the formerly state-owned telecommunications company at a cost of 1.8 percent of GDP in 1999.

Data cover the consolidated central government including the social security funds but excluding privatization.

Data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending).

Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts.

Data are on a budget basis.

Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included.

To maintain comparability, data exclude the impact of discharging future pension liabilities of the formerly state-owned telecommunications company at a cost of 1.8 percent of GDP in 1999.

Data cover the consolidated central government including the social security funds but excluding privatization.

Data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending).

Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts.

Data are on a budget basis.

Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

Table 14.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(Percent of potential GDP)
1996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Structural balance
Advanced economies3.11.81.51.21.01.52.93.13.33.0
United States−2.1−1.2−0.3−0.10.5−0.6−3.3−3.8−4.4−3.9
Euro area2,3−3.3−1.7−1.9−1.3−1.6−2.1−2.2−1.7−1.7−1.4
Germany2,4−3.0−2.0−1.7−1.2−1.6−2.9−2.9−2.2−2.4−1.9
France2−2.1−1.1−1.8−1.4−2.0−2.1−3.2−3.2−2.6−2.1
Italy2−6.3−1.9−2.8−1.8−2.4−3.1−2.6−1.4−2.1−1.9
Spain2−3.0−1.8−2.3−1.0−1.3−0.80.30.90.00.8
Netherlands2−1.4−1.1−1.4−0.7−0.2−1.1−2.5−2.4−1.7−1.3
Belgium2−3.0−2.0−0.8−1.1−1.7−0.8−0.1−1.00.2−0.1
Austria2−3.7−1.7−2.5−2.7−2.90.1−0.3−0.1−1.1
Finland−1.5−1.80.36.05.24.52.83.32.9
Greece−6.9−3.9−2.5−2.0−2.5−2.5−1.4−3.0−3.2−3.1
Portugal2−3.3−2.7−2.8−3.3−3.9−4.6−2.0−0.8−1.8−1.8
Ireland20.80.71.90.92.2−0.7−1.80.5−0.2−0.5
Japan−5.5−4.3−5.1−6.3−6.9−5.1−6.2−6.9−6.6−6.4
United Kingdom2−4.2−2.3−0.20.91.30.2−1.9−3.2−2.8−2.9
Canada−2.00.70.51.42.11.00.31.11.11.0
Other advanced economies−1.6−1.0−0.70.70.3−0.40.40.00.5
Australia5−2.3−2.0−1.8−0.9−0.5−0.8−0.40.70.00.8
Sweden−1.10.62.71.74.02.8−0.31.01.11.1
Denmark−1.1−0.10.82.22.22.41.62.01.11.6
Norway6−3.1−2.6−3.9−3.1−1.8−1.8−3.0−3.0−1.8−1.8
New Zealand71.21.51.70.91.22.03.13.93.33.4
Memorandum
Major advanced economies−3.2−1.9−1.5−1.3−1.2−1.7−3.4−3.6−3.9−3.5

On a national income accounts basis. The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit (or surplus) less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.

Excludes one-off receipts from the sale of mobile telephone licenses equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2001 and 2002 for France, 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy, 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2000 for Spain, 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for the Netherlands, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium, 0.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for Austria, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2000 for Portugal, and 0.2 percent of GDP in 2002 for Ireland. Also excludes one-off receipts from sizable asset transactions.

Excludes Luxembourg.

The estimate of the fiscal impulse for 1995 is affected by the assumption by the federal government of the debt of the Treuhandanstalt and various other agencies, which were formerly held outside the general government sector. At the public sector level, there would be an estimated withdrawal of fiscal impulse amounting to just over 1 percent of GDP.

Excludes commonwealth government privatization receipts.

Excludes oil.

Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts.

On a national income accounts basis. The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit (or surplus) less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.

Excludes one-off receipts from the sale of mobile telephone licenses equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2001 and 2002 for France, 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy, 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2000 for Spain, 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for the Netherlands, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium, 0.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for Austria, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2000 for Portugal, and 0.2 percent of GDP in 2002 for Ireland. Also excludes one-off receipts from sizable asset transactions.

Excludes Luxembourg.

The estimate of the fiscal impulse for 1995 is affected by the assumption by the federal government of the debt of the Treuhandanstalt and various other agencies, which were formerly held outside the general government sector. At the public sector level, there would be an estimated withdrawal of fiscal impulse amounting to just over 1 percent of GDP.

Excludes commonwealth government privatization receipts.

Excludes oil.

Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts.

Table 15.Advanced Economies: Monetary Aggregates1(Annual percent change)
19961997199819992000200120022003
Narrow money2
Advanced economies4.94.55.88.22.69.89.17.7
United States−4.4−1.22.11.9−1.77.03.36.6
Euro area38.07.310.611.05.49.79.99.6
Japan9.78.65.011.73.513.723.54.5
United Kingdom6.76.45.312.24.58.06.17.2
Canada17.810.68.78.914.415.34.610.0
Memorandum
Newly industrialized Asian economies5.8−4.00.919.84.611.413.413.9
Broad money4
Advanced economies4.95.06.75.95.08.75.75.2
United States4.65.68.46.26.110.26.75.3
Euro area34.14.54.85.44.211.26.76.5
Japan3.03.94.02.71.93.31.81.6
United Kingdom9.65.78.34.18.46.67.06.0
Canada2.1−1.31.44.36.95.95.06.0
Memorandum
Newly industrialized Asian economies12.711.620.017.314.47.35.76.8

Based on end-of-period data.

M1 except for the United Kingdom, where M0 is used here as a measure of narrow money; it comprises notes in circulation plus bankers’ operational deposits. M1 is generally currency in circulation plus private demand deposits. In addition, the United States includes traveler’s checks of nonbank issues and other checkable deposits and excludes private sector float and demand deposits of banks. Canada excludes private sector float.

Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, and the United Kingdom, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs), and M4, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the United Kingdom, M4 is composed of non-interest-bearing M1, private sector interest-bearing sterling sight bank deposits, private sector sterling time bank deposits, private sector holdings of sterling bank CDs, private sector holdings of building society shares and deposits, and sterling CDs less building society of banks deposits and bank CDs and notes and coins. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

Based on end-of-period data.

M1 except for the United Kingdom, where M0 is used here as a measure of narrow money; it comprises notes in circulation plus bankers’ operational deposits. M1 is generally currency in circulation plus private demand deposits. In addition, the United States includes traveler’s checks of nonbank issues and other checkable deposits and excludes private sector float and demand deposits of banks. Canada excludes private sector float.

Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, and the United Kingdom, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs), and M4, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the United Kingdom, M4 is composed of non-interest-bearing M1, private sector interest-bearing sterling sight bank deposits, private sector sterling time bank deposits, private sector holdings of sterling bank CDs, private sector holdings of building society shares and deposits, and sterling CDs less building society of banks deposits and bank CDs and notes and coins. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

Table 16.Advanced Economies: Interest Rates(Percent a year)
19961997199819992000200120022003August 2004
Policy-related interest rate1
United States5.35.54.75.36.41.81.21.01.4
Euro area23.04.83.32.82.02.0
Japan0.40.40.30.00.20.00.00.00.0
United Kingdom5.97.36.35.56.04.04.03.84.8
Canada3.04.35.04.85.82.32.82.82.0
Short-term interest rate3
Advanced economies4.34.14.13.44.43.22.01.61.9
United States5.15.24.94.86.03.51.61.01.5
Euro area25.24.44.13.04.44.23.32.42.1
Japan0.30.30.20.00.20.00.00.00.0
United Kingdom6.16.97.45.56.15.04.03.74.9
Canada4.33.24.74.75.53.92.62.92.1
Memorandum
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.79.310.54.64.73.30.63.13.3
Long-term interest rate4
Advanced economies6.15.54.54.75.14.44.23.74.0
United States6.46.45.35.66.05.04.64.04.3
Euro area27.36.14.84.75.55.04.94.24.2
Japan3.02.11.31.71.71.31.31.01.5
United Kingdom7.86.85.15.25.05.04.84.54.9
Canada7.26.15.35.65.95.55.34.84.7