Chapter

Statistical Appendix

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
April 2005
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The statistical appendix presents historical data, as well as projections. It comprises five sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and Statistical Tables.

The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2005-06 and the medium-term scenario for 2007–10 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of changes to the database and statistical tables. The third section provides a general description of the data and of the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the World Economic Outlook is summarized in the fourth section.

The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through early September 2005. The figures for 2005 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; since they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

Assumptions

Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during the period July 8– August 5, 2005. For 2005 and 2006, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.481 and 1.456, U.S. dollar/ euro conversion rate of 1.25 and 1.21, and yen/U.S. dollar conversion rates of 108.9 and 110.8, respectively.

It is assumed that the price of oil will average $54.23 a barrel in 2005 and $61.75 a barrel in 2006.

Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected advanced economies are described in Box A1.

Box A1.Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. In cases where the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless otherwise indicated. Specific assumptions used in some of the advanced economies follow (see also Tables 1214 in the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal and structural balances).1

United States. The fiscal projections are based on the Administration’s Mid-Session Review of the FY2006 Budget (July 13, 2005) adjusted to take into account: (1) differences in macro-economic assumptions; (2) IMF staff assumptions about additional defense spending using analysis by the Congressional Budget Office; (3) slower compression in the growth of discretionary spending; and (4) government spending for the clean-up and reconstruction in areas damaged by Hurricane Katrina.

Japan. The medium-term fiscal projections assume that expenditure and revenue of the general government (excluding social security) are adjusted in line with the current government target to achieve a primary fiscal balance by the early 2010s.

Germany. Fiscal projections for 2005–10 are based on IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and estimates of fiscal adjustment measures and structural reforms.

France. The projections for 2005 are based on the initial budget and the authorities’ updated projections of March 2005, adjusted for the IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and budget execution to date. For 2006-08, the projections are based on the intentions underlying the 2006-08 Stability Program Update, adjusted for the IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and lower projections of nontax revenue. For 2009–10, the IMF staff assumes unchanged tax policies and real expenditure growth as in the Stability Program Update for 2008.

Italy. The 2005 projections are based on the IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and its assessment of the authorities’ budget. Beyond 2005, projections assume a constant structural primary balance (excluding temporary measures in 2005) and are adjusted for the savings from enacted measures (e.g., the 2004 pension reform, which will have an impact starting from 2008).

United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the March 2005 Budget. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns through 2005:Q1.

Canada. Projections are based on the 2005 budget and updates provided by the authorities. The federal government balance is the desk’s estimate of the planning surplus (budgetary balance less contingency and economic reserves).

Australia. The fiscal projections through the fiscal year 2008/09 are based on the 2005-06 Budget Strategy and Outlook. Subsequently, the IMF staff assumes no change in policies.

Austria. Fiscal figures for 2004 are based on the authorities’ estimated outturn. Projections for 2005-06 are based on the budgets for 2005 and 2006. Projections for 2007-08 are based on the Austrian Stability Program (2004-08). For 2009–10, projections assume unchanged overall and structural balances from those in 2008.

Belgium. Fiscal projections for 2005 and the subsequent years are based on current government policies and historical expenditure trends, adjusted for the IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions.

Denmark. Projections for 2005 are aligned with the latest official projections and budget, adjusted for the IMF staff macroeconomic projections. For 2006–10, projections are in line with the authorities’ medium-term framework— adjusted for the IMF staff macroeconomic projections—targeting an average budget surplus of 1.5–2.5 percent of GDP, supported by a ceiling on real public consumption growth.

Greece. The fiscal projections assume (1) constant ratios of tax and other nontax revenues to GDP; (2) EU transfers falling in the medium term; (3) continuation of the recent trend of an increase in social contributions; (4) continuation of recent trends for wage growth, social spending, and operational spending; (5) a gradual decline in investment spending from peak levels in 2003-04 owing to the 2004 Olympic games; and (6) other spending constant as a ratio to GDP.

Korea. For 2005, it is assumed that the fiscal outcome will be in line with the budget. In the medium term, fiscal policy is assumed to be consistent with achieving a balanced budget excluding social security funds.

Netherlands. The fiscal projections for 2005 and beyond build on the 2005 budget, the latest Stability Program, and other forecasts provided by the authorities, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions.

New Zealand. The fiscal projections through the fiscal year 2008/09 are based on the 2005 Budget published in May 2005. For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

Portugal. Fiscal projections for 2005-09 are based on the authorities’ updated Stability Program of June 2005.

Spain. Fiscal projections through 2008 are based on the policies outlined in the national authorities’ updated Stability Program of December 2004. These projections have been adjusted for the IMF staff macroeconomic scenario. In subsequent years, the fiscal projections assume no significant changes in these policies.

Sweden. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the Spring Budget Bill, presented on April 15, 2005.

Switzerland. Estimates for 2004 and projections for 2005–10 are based on IMF staff calculations, which incorporate measures to restore balance in the Federal accounts.

Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will therefore increase when economic indicators suggest that prospective inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range, and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the LIBOR on six-month U.S. dollar deposits is assumed to average 3.6 percent in 2005 and 4.5 percent in 2006. The projected path for U.S. dollar short-term interest rates reflects the assumption implicit in prevailing forward rates that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to withdraw monetary stimulus at a measured pace through 2005. The rate on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average 2.1 percent in 2005 and 2.4 percent in 2006. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.1 percent in 2005 and 0.2 percent in 2006, with the current monetary policy framework being maintained. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the April 2005 World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1.1.

1 The output gap is actual less potential output, as a percent of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percent of potential output. The structural budget balance is the budgetary position that would be observed if the level of actual output coincided with potential output. Changes in the structural budget balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other non-cyclical fluctuations in the budget balance. The computations of structural budget balances are based on IMF staff estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities (see the October 1993 World Economic Outlook, Annex I). Net debt is defined as gross debt less financial assets of the general government, which include assets held by the social security insurance system. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 3.6 percent in 2005 and 4.5 percent in 2006, that three-month euro deposits will average 2.1 percent in 2005 and 2.4 percent in 2006, and that six-month Japanese yen deposits will average 0.1 percent in 2005 and 0.2 percent in 2006.

With respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member states adopting the euro are as follows.

1 euro= 13.7603Austrian schillings
= 40.3399Belgian francs
= 1.95583Deutsche mark
= 5.94573Finnish markkaa
= 6.55957French francs
= 340.750Greek drachma1
= 0.787564Irish pound
= 1,936.27Italian lire
= 40.3399Luxembourg francs
= 2.20371Netherlands guilders
= 200.482Portuguese escudos
= 166.386Spanish pesetas

See Box 5.4 in the October 1998 World Economic Outlook for details on how the conversion rates were established.

What’s New

In Table 43, the country group composites are calculated as the sum of the U.S dollar values for the relevant individual countries. This differs from the calculations in the April 2005 and earlier World Economic Outlooks, where the composites were weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities (PPPs) as a share of total world GDP.

Data and Conventions

Data and projections for 175 countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook (the World Economic Outlook database). The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and area departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

The comprehensive revision of the standardized System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA), the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual, Fifth Edition (BPM5), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) represented important improvements in the standards of economic statistics and analysis.2 The IMF was actively involved in all these projects, particularly the new Balance of Payments Manual, which reflects the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions. Key changes introduced with the new Manual were summarized in Box 13 of the May 1994 World Economic Outlook. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new BPM5 began with the May 1995 World Economic Outlook. However, full concordance with the BPM5 is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM5.

In line with recent improvements in standards of reporting economic statistics, several countries have phased out their traditional fixed-base-year method of calculating real macroeconomic variables levels and growth by switching to a chain-weighted method of computing aggregate growth. Recent dramatic changes in the structure of these economies have obliged these countries to revise the way in which they measure real GDP levels and growth. Switching to the chain-weighted method of computing aggregate growth, which uses current price information, allows countries to measure GDP growth more accurately by eliminating upward biases in new data.3 Currently, real macro-economic data for Australia, Austria, Canada, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States are based on chain-weighted methodology. However, data before 1988 (Austria), 1991 (Germany), 1995 (Greece), 1997 (Ireland), 1994 (Japan), 1995 (Luxembourg), 2001 (the Netherlands), 1995 (Portugal), and 2000 (Spain) are based on unrevised national accounts and are subject to revision in the future.

The members of the European Union have adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of national accounts, referred to as ESA 1995. All national accounts data from 1995 onward are presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to 1995 to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed. In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series. Users of EU national accounts data prior to 1995 should nevertheless exercise caution until the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1.2, “Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies,” in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook.

Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the other emerging market and developing countries group, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply.

  • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and the growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
  • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at PPPs as a share of total world or group GDP.4
  • Composites for data relating to the domestic economy for the euro area (12 member countries throughout the entire period unless otherwise noted) are aggregates of national source data using weights based on 1995 European currency unit (ECU) exchange rates.
  • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
  • Composites relating to the external economy are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies (through 1990) are converted to U.S. dollars at the implicit U.S. dollar/ruble conversion rates obtained from each country’s national currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and for the ruble.

Classification of Countries

Summary of the Country Classification

The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies, and other emerging market and developing countries.5 Rather than being based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, this classification has evolved over time with the objective of facilitating analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful organization of data. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been fully developed. Because of data limitations, group composites do not reflect the following countries: the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brunei Darussalam, Eritrea, Liberia, Serbia and Montenegro, Somalia, and Timor-Leste. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, whereas San Marino, among the advanced economies, and Aruba, among the developing countries, are examples of economies for which databases have not been completed.

Each of the two main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups. Among the advanced economies, the 7 largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major advanced countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 12 members of the euro area and the 4 newly industrialized Asian economies. The other emerging market and developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical groups. Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average 2004 shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population.

Table A.Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20041(Percent of total for group or world)
Number of CountriesGDPExports of Goods and ServicesPopulation
Advanced

economies
WorldAdvanced

economies
WorldAdvanced

economies
World
Advanced economies29100.054.6100.071.6100.015.4
United States38.220.914.410.330.54.7
Euro area1228.015.343.731.332.24.9
Germany7.94.313.29.58.61.3
France5.73.16.74.86.51.0
Italy5.32.95.53.96.00.9
Spain3.21.73.42.44.30.7
Japan12.66.98.05.713.22.0
United Kingdom5.73.16.74.86.21.0
Canada3.51.94.73.43.30.5
Other advanced economies1312.16.622.516.114.62.2
Memorandum
Major advanced economies778.843.059.142.374.311.4
Newly industrialized Asian economies46.43.513.19.48.51.3
Other

emerging

market and

developing

countries
WorldOther

emerging

market and

developing

countries
WorldOther

emerging

market and

developing

countries
World
Other emerging market and
developing countries146100.045.4100.028.2100.084.6
Regional groups
Africa487.23.37.82.214.812.5
Sub-Sahara455.62.55.71.613.511.4
Excluding Nigeria and South Africa432.91.32.70.89.98.4
Central and eastern Europe157.53.415.04.33.52.9
Commonwealth of Independent States2138.33.89.62.75.34.5
Russia5.72.66.41.82.72.3
Developing Asia2354.224.639.211.161.652.1
China29.013.220.75.924.520.7
India13.05.93.81.120.117.0
Excluding China and India2112.25.514.84.217.014.4
Middle East146.22.813.73.94.84.0
Western Hemisphere3316.57.514.84.210.18.5
Brazil5.82.63.41.03.42.9
Mexico4.01.84.21.22.01.7
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel187.13.214.24.07.66.4
Nonfuel12892.942.285.824.392.478.2
of which, primary products232.21.02.40.75.24.4
By external financing source
Net debtor countries12656.425.652.014.867.557.2
of which, official financing5012.95.89.32.622.419.0
Net debtor countries by debt- servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1999–20035612.25.611.43.223.720.1
Other net debtor countries7044.220.140.611.543.837.1
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries271.90.91.10.37.66.4
Middle East and North Africa208.23.715.84.56.85.8

The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs. The number of countries comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs. The number of countries comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

Advanced Economies

The 29 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. The euro area (12 countries) and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

Table B.Advanced Economies by Subgroup
Other Subgroups
Major Currency AreasEuro areaNewly industrialized

Asian economies
Major advanced

economies
Other advanced economies
United StatesAustriaIrelandHong Kong SAR1CanadaAustraliaKorea
Euro areaBelgiumItalyKoreaFranceCyprusNew Zealand
JapanFinlandLuxembourgSingaporeGermanyDenmarkNorway
FranceNetherlandsTaiwan ProvinceItalyHong Kong SAR1Singapore
GermanyPortugalof ChinaJapanIcelandSweden
GreeceSpainUnited KingdomIsraelSwitzerland
United StatesTaiwan Province

of China

On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the eastern Länder (i.e., the former German Democratic Republic). Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including 1991, but to unified Germany from 1992 onward. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

Table C lists the member countries of the European Union, not all of which are classified as advanced economies in the World Economic Outlook.

Table C.European Union
AustriaFranceLatviaPortugal
BelgiumGermanyLithuaniaSlovak Republic
CyprusGreeceLuxembourgSlovenia
Czech RepublicHungaryMaltaSpain
DenmarkIrelandNetherlandsSweden
EstoniaItalyPolandUnited Kingdom
Finland

Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries

The group of other emerging market and developing countries (146 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies.

The regional breakdowns of other emerging market and developing countries—Africa, central and eastern Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States, developing Asia, Middle East, and Western Hemisphere—largely conform to the regional breakdowns in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in the Middle East region rather than in Africa. In addition, the World Economic Outlook sometimes refers to the regional group of Middle East and North Africa countries, also referred to as the MENA countries, whose composition straddles the Africa and Middle East regions. This group is defined as the Arab League countries plus the Islamic Republic of Iran (see Table D).

Table D.Middle East and North Africa Countries
AlgeriaIraqMauritaniaSudan
BahrainJordanMoroccoSyrian Arab Republic
DjiboutiKuwaitOmanTunisia
EgyptLebanonQatarUnited Arab Emirates
Iran, I.R. ofLibyaSaudi ArabiaYemen

Other emerging market and developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria. The analytical criteria reflect countries’ composition of export earnings and other income from abroad, exchange rate arrangements, a distinction between net creditor and net debtor countries, and, for the net debtor countries, financial criteria based on external financing source and experience with external debt servicing. The detailed composition of other emerging market and developing countries in the regional and analytical groups is shown in Tables E and F.

Table E.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
FuelNonfuel, of Which

Primary Products
AfricaAlgeriaBotswana
AngolaBurkina Faso
Congo, Rep. ofBurundi
Equatorial GuineaChad
GabonCongo, Dem. Rep. of
NigeriaCôte d’Ivoire
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Malawi
Mauritania
Namibia
Niger
Sierra Leone
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Commonwealth

of Independent
StatesAzerbaijanTajikistan
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Developing AsiaPapua New Guinea
Solomon Islands
Middle EastIran, I.R. of
Iraq
Kuwait
Libya
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
Yemen
Western
HemisphereVenezuelaChile
Suriname
Table F.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries by Region, Net External Position, and Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
Net External

Position
Heavily

Indebted

Poor

Countries
Net

creditor
Net

debtor1
Africa
Maghreb
Algeria*
Morocco*
Tunisia*
Sub-Sahara
South Africa*
Horn of Africa
Djibouti
Ethiopia*
Sudan*
Great Lakes
Burundi
Congo, Dem. Rep. of*
Kenya
Rwanda*
Tanzania*
Uganda**
Southern Africa
Angola*
Botswana*
Comoros
Lesotho*
Madagascar*
Malawi*
Mauritius*
Mozambique, Rep. of**
Namibia*
Seychelles*
Swaziland*
Zambia*
Zimbabwe*
West and Central Africa
Cape Verde*
Gambia, The**
Ghana*
Guinea*
Mauritania**
Nigeria*
São Tomé and Príncipe**
Sierra Leone*
CFA franc zone
Benin*
Burkina Faso*
Cameroon**
Central African Republic
Chad*
Congo, Rep. of
Côte d’Ivoire
Equatorial Guinea*
Gabon
Guinea-Bissau*
Mali*
Niger*
Senegal**
Togo
Middle East
Bahrain*
Iran, I.R. of*
Iraq*
Kuwait*
Libya*
Oman*
Qatar*
Saudi Arabia*
United Arab Emirates*
Yemen*
Mashreq
Egypt*
Jordan*
Lebanon
Syrian Arab Republic*
Western Hemisphere
Mercosur
Argentina
Bolivia (associate member)*
Brazil*
Chile (associate member)*
Paraguay
Uruguay
Andean region
Colombia
Peru*
Venezuela*
Central and eastern Europe
Albania*
Bulgaria*
Croatia*
Czech Republic*
Estonia*
Hungary*
Latvia*
Lithuania*
Macedonia, FYR*
Malta*
Poland*
Romania*
Slovak Republic*
Slovenia*
Turkey*
Commonwealth of

Independent States2
Armenia*
Azerbaijan*
Belarus*
Georgia*
Kazakhstan*
Kyrgyz Republic
Moldova*
Mongolia
Russia*
Tajikistan*
Turkmenistan*
Ukraine*
Uzbekistan*
Developing Asia
Bhutan
Cambodia
China*
Fiji*
Indonesia
Kiribati*
Lao PDR*
Malaysia*
Myanmar*
Papua New Guinea
Philippines*
Samoa*
Solomon Islands
Thailand*
Tonga*
Vanuatu
Vietnam
South Asia
Bangladesh
India*
Maldives*
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Mexico, Central America,

and Caribbean
Mexico*
Central America
Costa Rica*
El Salvador
Guatemala*
Honduras*
Nicaragua**
Panama*
Caribbean
Antigua and Barbuda*
Bahamas, The*
Barbados*
Belize*
Dominica*
Dominican Republic
Grenada
Guyana**
Haiti
Jamaica*
Netherlands Antilles*
St. Kitts and Nevis*
St. Lucia
St. Vincent and the
Grenadines*
Suriname*
Trinidad and Tobago*

Dot instead of star indicates that the net debtor’s main external finance source is official financing.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Dot instead of star indicates that the net debtor’s main external finance source is official financing.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

The analytical criterion, by source of export earnings, distinguishes between categories: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification— SITC 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68).

The financial criteria focus on net creditor countries, net debtor countries, and heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs). Net debtor countries are further differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by official external financing and by experience with debt servicing.6 The HIPC group comprises the countries considered by the IMF and the World Bank for their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative, with the aim of reducing the external debt burdens of all the eligible HIPCs to a “sustainable” level in a reasonably short period of time.7

List of Tables

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

Table 1.Summary of World Output1(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006
World3.33.94.22.83.74.72.43.04.05.14.34.3
Advanced economies3.02.73.52.63.53.91.21.51.93.32.52.7
United States2.93.34.54.24.43.70.81.62.74.23.53.3
Euro area2.02.62.82.73.81.70.90.72.01.21.8
Japan3.21.11.8-1.0-0.12.40.2-0.31.42.72.02.0
Other advanced economies23.83.34.01.94.75.31.73.22.43.92.83.3
Other emerging market and
developing countries3.85.35.23.04.05.84.14.86.57.36.46.1
Regional groups
Africa2.24.13.43.22.83.34.13.64.65.34.55.9
Central and eastern Europe0.93.74.22.80.54.90.24.44.66.54.34.6
Commonwealth of Independent States35.11.1-3.55.19.16.35.37.98.46.05.7
Developing Asia7.86.76.54.26.26.75.66.68.18.27.87.2
Middle East3.44.64.74.22.04.93.74.26.55.55.45.0
Western Hemisphere2.72.85.22.30.43.90.52.25.64.13.8
Memorandum
European Union2.22.42.93.02.93.92.01.31.32.51.62.1
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel2.64.64.43.30.94.73.83.66.47.26.06.2
Nonfuel3.95.45.33.04.35.94.14.96.57.36.46.1
of which, primary products3.23.43.72.81.31.82.92.93.35.64.45.1
By external financing source
Net debtor countries3.54.14.62.12.94.62.43.34.96.15.25.2
of which, official financing4.43.54.9-0.51.03.12.21.65.36.15.95.3
Net debtor countries by debt- servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1999–20033.94.05.4-0.41.73.63.02.25.86.66.05.9
Memorandum
Median growth rate
Advanced economies3.13.03.83.63.84.11.71.91.93.22.63.0
Other emerging market and
developing countries3.24.24.73.73.44.13.83.54.55.04.34.5
Output per capita
Advanced economies2.32.12.92.02.83.30.60.91.32.72.02.2
Other emerging market and
developing countries2.14.03.71.62.64.42.73.55.26.05.14.9
World growth based on market
exchange rates2.62.93.52.23.14.01.41.72.64.03.13.2
Value of world output in billions of U.S. dollars
At market exchange rates23,84035,28129,87629,62930,72731,54631,31032,51736,48140,89543,88645,942
At purchasing power parities28,77849,10438,35139,79041,82744,72946,86649,01551,82455,65559,56063,420

Real GDP.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Real GDP.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 2.Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006200420052006
Real GDP
Advanced economies3.02.73.52.63.53.91.21.51.93.32.52.7
United States2.93.34.54.24.43.70.81.62.74.23.53.33.83.33.4
Euro area2.02.62.82.73.81.70.90.72.01.21.81.51.62.0
Germany2.61.31.72.01.93.11.20.1-0.21.60.81.20.51.41.7
France1.92.22.33.43.24.12.11.30.92.01.51.82.11.22.3
Italy1.91.42.01.81.73.01.80.40.31.21.40.80.81.4
Spain2.93.74.04.34.25.83.52.72.93.13.23.02.82.53.8
Netherlands2.72.13.84.34.03.51.40.1-0.11.70.72.01.70.92.2
Belgium2.22.23.82.13.23.70.90.91.32.71.22.02.60.92.4
Austria2.52.21.83.63.33.40.81.01.42.41.92.22.52.12.2
Finland1.33.46.25.03.45.01.02.22.43.61.83.23.53.60.8
Greece1.43.83.63.43.44.54.33.84.74.23.22.94.22.73.2
Portugal4.01.94.04.63.83.41.70.4-1.11.00.51.20.51.21.4
Ireland5.27.010.88.510.79.26.26.14.44.55.04.92.15.24.9
Luxembourg5.24.98.36.87.39.22.22.32.44.43.13.2
Japan3.21.11.8-1.0-0.12.40.2-0.31.42.72.02.00.92.91.8
United Kingdom2.42.83.23.23.04.02.22.02.53.21.92.22.72.02.3
Canada2.23.54.24.15.55.21.83.12.02.92.93.23.32.93.3
Korea8.44.24.7-6.99.58.53.87.03.14.63.85.03.33.93.9
Australia3.63.53.95.34.33.22.54.03.33.22.23.21.52.73.4
Taiwan Province of China7.64.06.44.35.35.8-2.23.93.35.73.44.33.24.63.5
Sweden1.52.82.43.64.64.31.02.01.53.62.62.83.23.52.8
Switzerland1.41.51.92.81.33.61.00.3-0.41.70.81.81.21.11.9
Hong Kong SAR5.93.75.1-5.03.410.20.51.93.28.16.34.56.85.65.0
Denmark1.52.03.02.52.62.81.30.50.72.42.22.13.02.41.2
Norway2.92.65.22.62.12.82.71.10.42.93.13.32.64.22.3
Israel5.53.03.63.72.37.7-0.3-1.21.74.44.23.95.62.94.5
Singapore9.44.38.6-0.86.89.6-1.93.21.48.43.94.56.52.95.6
New Zealand2.83.01.9-0.14.43.52.64.73.44.82.52.53.82.92.1
Cyprus5.83.72.35.04.85.04.12.11.93.73.84.0
Iceland1.64.14.75.74.45.72.6-2.14.25.25.84.9
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.72.53.32.83.13.51.01.11.83.22.52.62.52.62.7
Newly industrialized Asian economies7.94.25.5-2.67.37.91.35.33.15.64.04.74.34.74.3
Real total domestic demand
Advanced economies2.92.83.33.04.03.91.11.62.13.42.62.6
United States2.73.74.85.35.34.40.92.23.04.73.53.14.53.03.3
Euro area1.91.83.63.52.91.00.41.22.01.41.81.91.32.0
Germany2.60.80.92.32.72.2-0.5-1.90.60.50.10.90.20.11.6
France1.72.61.14.03.64.32.01.31.83.22.42.03.51.72.4
Italy1.61.72.73.13.22.31.41.21.21.00.40.91.00.51.0
Spain3.34.53.55.65.66.43.73.23.54.74.74.05.03.54.2
Japan3.40.80.7-1.41.90.8-1.00.71.92.01.90.72.81.8
United Kingdom2.43.23.44.94.14.12.83.22.73.71.61.83.01.12.1
Canada1.83.85.72.44.14.91.33.34.53.74.63.44.93.43.5
Other advanced economies5.52.83.7-1.65.55.20.63.51.24.03.03.7
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.62.73.23.53.83.61.01.32.23.42.62.43.02.32.6
Newly industrialized Asian economies9.02.64.2-8.27.87.54.1-0.14.03.14.54.95.2-0.8

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

Table 3.Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Private consumer expenditure
Advanced economies3.02.72.83.03.93.82.22.11.92.82.52.3
United States2.93.73.85.05.14.72.52.72.93.93.42.7
Euro area1.91.72.93.33.21.80.91.01.61.21.4
Germany2.91.00.81.53.02.41.9-0.50.10.6-0.30.4
France1.62.30.23.63.33.52.42.41.62.31.92.1
Italy1.91.73.23.22.62.70.80.41.41.00.70.8
Spain2.83.93.24.44.75.53.22.82.54.34.74.0
Japan3.20.80.8-0.20.51.10.50.21.51.91.7
United Kingdom2.83.33.64.04.44.63.03.52.63.61.61.8
Canada2.23.54.62.83.84.02.33.73.13.44.03.2
Other advanced economies5.23.14.0-1.05.95.42.63.71.03.02.93.5
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.82.72.73.43.63.52.12.02.02.82.42.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies8.23.14.9-5.58.27.43.34.9-0.51.93.14.2
Public consumption
Advanced economies2.02.41.51.82.92.52.83.52.42.01.82.4
United States1.12.61.81.63.11.73.14.33.02.12.13.2
Euro area1.71.41.41.92.32.12.51.51.11.11.8
Germany1.70.50.51.81.21.40.51.40.1-1.6-0.30.3
France2.11.92.0-0.21.92.21.92.92.12.71.52.1
Italy1.11.40.30.31.41.73.81.92.30.70.80.3
Spain4.34.32.93.74.24.23.94.53.96.45.74.0
Japan3.42.51.12.24.74.93.02.61.22.71.51.2
United Kingdom1.02.5-0.51.14.03.71.74.44.53.11.71.6
Canada1.32.7-1.03.22.13.13.92.62.92.73.44.3
Other advanced economies4.62.42.82.71.52.02.93.82.11.62.22.7
Memorandum
Major advanced economies1.62.21.21.53.02.42.73.42.41.91.72.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies6.62.63.72.80.32.33.34.22.31.32.52.9
Gross fixed capital formation
Advanced economies3.63.45.45.25.55.3-0.9-1.92.05.34.44.1
United States3.34.98.09.18.26.1-1.7-3.53.38.47.15.3
Euro area2.42.85.36.15.10.1-2.30.71.91.53.0
Germany3.00.41.04.04.73.0-3.7-6.1-0.8-0.2-0.82.8
France1.93.30.16.97.97.52.3-1.72.72.12.92.7
Italy1.62.12.14.05.06.91.91.2-1.82.1-2.12.0
Spain4.26.25.110.18.88.94.53.35.44.47.74.2
Japan3.8-0.10.6-3.8-1.12.0-1.4-5.70.91.72.93.1
United Kingdom3.04.16.713.02.13.52.43.04.92.93.2
Canada2.05.715.22.47.34.74.01.75.96.65.74.0
Other advanced economies7.03.15.3-1.43.16.9-3.83.62.06.34.54.6
Memorandum
Major advanced economies3.13.35.25.95.65.0-0.8-3.02.05.34.44.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies11.81.94.1-10.02.710.6-6.51.91.26.74.45.4
Final domestic demand
Advanced economies3.02.83.13.14.03.91.61.52.03.12.62.7
United States2.73.74.35.35.44.51.81.83.04.43.83.3
Euro area2.01.93.13.63.41.50.51.11.61.31.8
Germany2.70.80.82.03.02.30.4-1.3-0.1-0.40.8
France1.82.40.63.33.84.02.31.71.92.32.02.2
Italy1.71.72.42.82.93.41.60.80.91.10.20.9
Spain3.34.03.55.55.54.73.73.33.54.71.93.5
Japan3.40.80.8-0.90.41.60.7-0.70.61.72.02.0
United Kingdom2.43.23.24.83.94.22.73.62.53.71.82.0
Canada2.03.85.42.84.24.02.93.03.63.94.23.6
Other advanced economies5.92.94.1-1.44.45.41.13.81.53.53.13.7
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.62.72.93.53.93.71.61.22.13.12.62.5
Newly industrialized Asian economies9.02.64.3-6.35.37.60.74.00.52.93.44.4
Stock building1
Advanced economies0.30.1-0.50.10.10.3-0.1-0.2
United States0.10.5-0.1-0.90.40.10.4-0.4-0.3
Euro area-0.10.4-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.10.10.40.1-0.1
Germany0.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.9-0.60.60.50.40.1
France-0.10.20.50.7-0.20.3-0.3-0.4-0.20.80.4-0.2
Italy-0.10.30.30.3-1.1-0.10.40.3-0.10.2
Spain0.10.3
Japan-0.1-0.1-0.6-0.40.30.1-0.20.20.2
United Kingdom0.20.10.2-0.10.1-0.30.20.1-0.2-0.2
Canada0.10.10.7-0.30.10.8-1.70.40.90.2-0.3
Other advanced economies-0.3-0.61.0-0.1-0.4-0.1-0.20.5
Memorandum
Major advanced economies0.4-0.1-0.60.10.20.3-0.1-0.2
Newly industrialized Asian economies0.1-0.2-1.92.1-0.1-0.60.1-0.50.9-0.20.1
Foreign balance1
Advanced economies-0.10.2-0.3-0.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.10.1
United States0.2-0.6-0.3-1.2-1.0-0.9-0.2-0.7-0.5-0.7-0.2
Euro area0.10.9-0.6-0.70.90.80.5-0.40.1-0.10.1
Germany0.10.60.8-0.4-0.81.01.71.9-0.81.10.70.3
France0.2-0.31.2-0.5-0.4-0.10.1-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.2
Italy0.3-0.4-0.6-1.2-1.40.80.3-0.8-0.90.2-0.40.5
Spain-0.5-1.00.4-1.3-1.4-0.8-0.2-0.7-1.0-1.9-1.7-1.3
Japan-0.20.31.00.4-0.20.4-0.60.60.60.8
United Kingdom-0.5-0.2-1.4-0.9-0.1-0.6-1.2-0.2-0.70.30.4
Canada0.2-0.2-1.71.71.40.60.7-0.2-2.4-0.9-1.30.1
Other advanced economies-0.30.80.82.50.30.80.90.31.20.80.30.4
Memorandum
Major advanced economies0.1-0.20.1-0.7-0.7-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.20.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies-1.01.71.36.00.30.61.21.23.12.21.10.6

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

Table 4.Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real Per Capita GDP(Percent)
Ten-Year Averages1
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Unemployment rate
Advanced economies6.86.36.86.76.45.85.96.46.66.36.15.9
United States26.15.04.94.54.24.04.85.86.05.55.25.2
Euro area8.910.610.09.28.27.98.38.78.98.78.4
Germany7.38.99.79.18.47.87.98.79.69.29.59.3
France10.49.811.511.110.59.18.48.99.59.79.89.6
Italy11.39.711.711.811.410.69.59.08.78.58.17.8
Spain20.013.020.618.615.613.910.611.511.511.09.18.0
Netherlands6.43.85.03.83.22.82.22.83.74.65.04.5
Belgium8.48.09.29.38.66.96.77.37.97.87.98.0
Austria3.44.34.44.53.93.73.64.14.34.85.04.7
Finland9.79.612.611.410.29.89.19.19.08.88.07.8
Greece8.410.79.811.012.111.410.810.39.710.510.510.5
Portugal5.85.76.75.04.43.94.05.06.36.77.47.7
Ireland14.55.310.37.65.64.33.94.44.74.54.24.0
Luxembourg2.03.63.63.12.92.62.63.03.84.44.85.2
Japan2.64.63.44.14.74.75.05.45.34.74.34.1
United Kingdom8.55.57.16.36.05.55.15.25.04.84.74.8
Canada9.57.59.28.47.66.97.27.77.67.26.86.7
Korea2.54.22.67.06.64.44.03.33.63.53.63.3
Australia8.46.48.37.76.96.36.86.46.05.55.15.1
Taiwan Province of China1.73.92.72.72.93.04.65.25.04.44.34.2
Sweden4.75.38.16.55.64.74.04.04.95.55.24.9
Switzerland2.13.04.53.42.41.71.62.33.43.53.73.7
Hong Kong SAR1.95.62.24.76.25.05.17.37.96.85.74.6
Denmark9.85.87.86.45.55.14.94.95.86.05.65.5
Norway4.93.94.13.23.23.43.53.94.54.54.24.0
Israel8.49.27.78.58.98.79.310.310.710.39.18.7
Singapore2.63.51.83.23.53.13.34.44.74.03.63.4
New Zealand7.55.46.67.46.86.05.35.24.73.94.04.2
Cyprus2.63.33.43.43.63.42.93.13.53.63.23.0
Iceland2.82.43.92.81.91.31.42.53.43.12.31.7
Memorandum
Major advanced economies6.66.26.56.36.15.75.96.66.76.46.16.0
Newly industrialized Asian economies2.34.22.65.45.44.04.24.24.44.14.03.7
Growth in employment
Advanced economies1.11.11.51.11.42.10.70.30.61.01.21.1
United States1.51.32.31.51.52.5-0.30.91.11.61.7
Euro area1.20.81.91.82.21.30.50.20.71.01.1
Germany0.50.5-0.11.21.41.90.4-0.6-1.00.40.21.0
France0.41.00.41.52.02.71.70.7-0.1-0.10.30.5
Italy-0.41.00.41.11.31.92.11.51.00.30.40.3
Spain1.74.33.74.25.65.64.13.04.03.95.33.2
Japan1.0-0.21.1-0.7-0.8-0.2-0.5-1.3-0.20.20.6
United Kingdom0.41.01.81.01.41.20.80.80.90.90.50.2
Canada1.21.91.62.52.72.61.32.42.31.81.20.9
Other advanced economies1.91.31.3-0.91.62.91.11.60.61.61.81.5
Memorandum
Major advanced economies0.90.91.41.01.11.80.4-0.10.50.70.91.0
Newly industrialized Asian economies2.61.21.8-2.91.53.51.02.00.31.81.71.7
Growth in real per capita GDP
Advanced economies2.32.12.92.02.83.30.60.91.32.72.02.2
United States1.72.23.33.03.32.5-0.30.61.73.22.52.3
Euro area1.72.32.62.53.41.30.50.21.60.91.6
Germany1.91.21.52.01.93.01.1-0.1-0.31.60.31.2
France1.41.71.93.02.73.51.40.70.31.41.11.3
Italy1.81.21.91.71.63.01.80.50.40.4-0.21.3
Spain2.73.13.84.03.84.62.92.02.32.52.62.5
Japan2.80.91.6-1.3-0.32.2-0.51.22.61.91.9
United Kingdom2.12.32.93.02.73.71.81.52.02.71.41.7
Canada0.92.53.23.24.74.30.71.91.12.02.02.4
Other advanced economies4.02.73.4-0.44.45.00.73.01.83.82.63.2
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.01.92.72.22.52.90.50.61.32.71.92.0
Newly industrialized Asian economies6.83.44.4-3.66.47.00.54.62.55.03.44.2

Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP; arithmetic average for unemployment rate.

The projections for unemployment have been adjusted to reflect the survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.

Table 5.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Real GDP(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Other emerging market and
developing countries3.85.35.23.04.05.84.14.86.57.36.46.1
Regional groups
Africa2.24.13.43.22.83.34.13.64.65.34.55.9
Sub-Sahara2.24.14.22.42.83.64.13.64.15.44.85.9
Excluding Nigeria and South Africa2.34.85.54.33.42.85.24.03.66.55.37.4
Central and eastern Europe0.93.74.22.80.54.90.24.44.66.54.34.6
Commonwealth of Independent States15.11.1-3.55.19.16.35.37.98.46.05.7
Russia4.71.4-5.36.310.05.14.77.37.25.55.3
Excluding Russia6.00.60.82.26.89.16.69.211.07.16.8
Developing Asia7.86.76.54.26.26.75.66.68.18.27.87.2
China10.08.48.87.87.18.07.58.39.59.59.08.2
India5.96.05.05.86.75.43.94.77.47.37.16.3
Excluding China and India6.43.93.8-4.53.85.43.24.85.86.15.45.7
Middle East3.44.64.74.22.04.93.74.26.55.55.45.0
Western Hemisphere2.72.85.22.30.43.90.52.25.64.13.8
Brazil2.12.43.30.10.84.41.31.90.54.93.33.5
Mexico2.53.56.74.93.96.6-0.20.81.44.43.03.5
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel2.64.64.43.30.94.73.83.66.47.26.06.2
Nonfuel3.95.45.33.04.35.94.14.96.57.36.46.1
of which, primary products3.23.43.72.81.31.82.92.93.35.64.45.1
By external financing source
Net debtor countries3.54.14.62.12.94.62.43.34.96.15.25.2
of which, official financing4.43.54.9-0.51.03.12.21.65.36.15.95.3
Net debtor countries by debt- servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1999–20033.94.05.4-0.41.73.63.02.25.86.66.05.9
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries1.84.54.03.63.72.95.13.94.26.45.45.9
Middle East and north Africa3.14.64.14.82.34.53.94.26.35.55.15.6
Memorandum
Real per capita GDP
Other emerging market and
developing countries2.14.03.71.62.64.42.73.55.26.05.14.9
Africa-0.61.81.00.80.41.01.81.42.43.22.43.7
Central and eastern Europe0.23.23.72.30.14.4-0.23.94.26.13.94.2
Commonwealth of Independent States15.31.3-3.35.39.36.65.68.28.66.26.0
Developing Asia6.15.45.02.84.85.44.35.47.07.06.66.1
Middle East0.82.52.52.1-0.12.81.62.24.43.53.33.0
Western Hemisphere0.91.33.60.7-1.12.4-1.0-1.50.74.22.72.4

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 6.Other Emerging and Developing Countries—by Country: Real GDP1(Annual percent change)
Average
1987–961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Africa2.23.43.22.83.34.13.64.65.34.55.9
Algeria0.81.15.13.22.12.64.76.95.24.85.3
Angola-0.17.96.83.23.03.114.43.411.114.727.6
Benin3.25.74.05.34.96.24.53.93.13.94.4
Botswana7.66.75.95.57.65.15.06.64.93.83.5
Burkina Faso4.76.98.44.13.36.75.27.94.63.55.0
Burundi-0.50.44.8-1.0-0.92.14.5-1.24.85.05.0
Cameroon2-2.35.15.04.44.24.54.04.13.52.84.3
Cape Verde5.08.58.011.97.36.15.46.24.46.37.7
Central African Republic-1.77.53.93.61.80.3-0.6-7.61.32.23.5
Chad3.64.27.7-1.7-0.69.99.911.329.75.97.6
Comoros0.84.21.21.92.42.32.32.11.92.83.3
Congo, Dem. Rep. of-4.3-5.4-1.7-4.3-6.9-2.13.55.76.86.67.0
Congo, Rep. of5.0-0.63.7-3.08.23.65.40.33.69.24.9
Côte d’Ivoire2.85.74.71.5-3.80.1-1.6-1.61.61.02.0
Djibouti-1.5-0.70.12.20.42.02.63.23.03.23.8
Equatorial Guinea12.4151.426.025.227.048.19.721.332.80.26.4
Eritrea. . .7.91.8-13.19.20.73.01.80.80.4
Ethiopia3.15.1-1.46.05.47.71.6-4.211.57.35.0
Gabon2.55.73.5-8.9-1.92.02.41.42.22.7
Gambia, The3.34.96.56.45.55.8-3.26.95.14.74.7
Ghana4.74.24.74.43.74.24.55.25.85.85.8
Guinea4.24.94.84.71.94.04.21.22.73.04.9
Guinea-Bissau3.56.5-27.27.67.50.2-7.20.64.32.32.6
Kenya3.10.23.32.40.64.70.32.84.34.74.9
Lesotho6.14.8-3.50.51.93.33.73.23.00.81.9
Madagascar1.23.73.94.74.76.0-12.79.85.36.37.0
Malawi3.46.61.13.50.8-4.12.13.94.62.18.2
Mali3.35.38.43.0-3.212.14.37.22.26.46.7
Mauritania3.12.83.97.86.73.62.36.46.95.426.9
Mauritius6.85.75.94.48.27.13.53.24.33.63.6
Morocco3.0-2.27.7-0.11.06.33.25.54.21.05.9
Mozambique, Rep. of4.911.112.67.51.913.18.27.87.27.77.4
Namibia3.34.23.33.43.52.42.53.74.23.63.8
Niger1.32.810.4-0.6-1.47.13.05.30.94.24.2
Nigeria3.63.20.31.55.43.11.510.76.03.94.9
Rwanda-3.913.88.97.66.06.79.40.94.04.04.3
São Tomé and Príncipe0.91.02.52.53.04.04.14.03.83.24.5
Senegal2.43.34.56.23.04.71.16.56.25.75.0
Seychelles5.312.22.51.94.3-2.21.3-6.3-2.0-2.8-2.0
Sierra Leone-4.2-17.6-0.8-8.13.818.227.59.37.47.57.1
South Africa1.72.60.52.44.22.73.62.83.74.33.9
Sudan2.210.810.15.09.26.56.34.66.98.013.6
Swaziland5.63.82.83.52.61.62.92.72.12.01.7
Tanzania3.63.53.73.55.16.27.27.16.76.97.2
Togo2.03.5-2.32.4-0.40.64.54.42.93.03.0
Tunisia4.35.44.86.14.74.91.75.65.85.05.9
Uganda6.45.53.68.35.34.86.94.55.85.96.6
Zambia-0.33.3-1.92.23.64.93.35.15.05.05.0
Zimbabwe3.61.40.1-3.6-7.3-2.7-4.4-10.4-4.2-7.1-4.8
Central and eastern Europe30.94.22.80.54.90.24.44.66.54.34.6
Albania-0.8-10.212.710.17.37.23.46.05.96.06.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina. . .29.915.99.65.54.35.34.05.75.45.7
Bulgaria-4.8-5.64.02.35.44.14.94.35.65.55.5
Croatia. . .6.82.5-0.92.94.45.24.33.83.43.9
Czech Republic. . .-0.8-1.00.53.32.61.53.24.44.13.9
Estonia. . .11.14.40.37.96.57.26.77.87.06.0
Hungary-0.94.64.94.25.23.83.52.94.23.43.6
Latvia. . .8.34.73.36.98.06.47.58.57.86.8
Lithuania. . .7.07.3-1.73.96.46.89.76.76.86.5
Macedonia, FYR. . .1.43.44.44.5-4.50.93.52.43.83.7
Malta5.94.83.44.19.9-0.41.0-1.91.01.51.8
Serbia and Montenegro. . .2.5-18.05.05.53.82.77.24.64.8
Poland1.86.84.84.14.01.01.43.85.43.04.0
Romania-1.8-6.1-4.8-1.22.15.75.15.28.35.05.0
Slovak Republic. . .4.64.21.52.03.84.64.55.55.05.4
Slovenia. . .4.83.65.63.92.73.32.54.63.94.0
Turkey4.47.53.0-4.47.4-7.57.95.88.95.05.0
Commonwealth of Independent States3,4. . .1.1-3.55.19.16.35.37.98.46.05.7
Russia. . .1.4-5.36.310.05.14.77.37.25.55.3
Excluding Russia. . .0.60.82.26.89.16.69.211.07.16.8
Armenia. . .3.37.33.36.09.613.213.910.18.06.0
Azerbaijan. . .5.810.07.49.26.58.111.510.218.726.6
Belarus. . .11.48.43.45.84.75.07.011.07.14.0
Georgia. . .10.62.93.01.94.75.511.16.27.54.5
Kazakhstan. . .1.6-1.92.79.813.59.89.39.48.87.7
Kyrgyz Republic. . .9.92.13.75.45.37.07.14.05.5
Moldova. . .1.6-6.5-3.42.16.17.86.67.36.05.0
Mongolia-0.24.03.53.21.11.04.05.610.65.06.0
Tajikistan. . .1.85.23.88.310.29.110.210.68.07.0
Turkmenistan. . .-11.36.716.418.620.415.817.117.29.66.5
Ukraine. . .-3.0-1.9-0.25.99.25.29.612.15.55.4
Uzbekistan. . .2.52.13.43.24.13.11.57.13.52.5
Developing Asia7.86.54.26.26.75.66.68.18.27.87.2
Afghanistan, I.S. of. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .28.615.77.513.610.9
Bangladesh4.25.35.05.45.64.84.85.85.85.76.0
Bhutan6.27.25.87.79.58.67.16.87.97.713.3
Brunei Darussalam. . .2.6-4.02.62.83.12.83.81.73.02.2
Cambodia. . .5.75.012.68.45.55.37.17.76.36.1
China10.08.87.87.18.07.58.39.59.59.08.2
Fiji3.5-2.31.29.2-2.82.74.34.84.11.22.5
India5.95.05.86.75.43.94.77.47.37.16.3
Indonesia7.04.5-13.10.84.93.84.44.95.15.85.8
Kiribati2.41.912.69.51.61.9-4.22.2-1.40.30.8
Lao PDR5.26.94.07.35.85.85.85.86.47.37.0
Malaysia9.17.3-7.46.18.90.34.45.47.15.56.0
Maldives7.510.49.87.24.83.56.58.48.81.09.0
Myanmar2.55.75.810.913.711.312.013.85.04.53.5
Nepal5.55.32.94.56.15.5-0.63.43.42.54.0
Pakistan4.91.83.14.03.02.54.15.77.17.46.5
Papua New Guinea5.1-3.9-3.87.6-1.2-2.3-0.82.72.52.82.8
Philippines3.75.2-0.63.44.41.84.44.56.04.74.8
Samoa2.50.82.42.66.96.21.83.13.23.23.2
Solomon Islands5.7-1.41.8-0.5-14.3-9.0-2.45.65.54.45.0
Sri Lanka4.36.44.74.36.0-1.54.06.05.45.36.0
Thailand9.5-1.4-10.54.44.82.25.36.96.13.55.0
Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of. . .. . .. . .. . .15.416.6-6.7-6.21.82.54.9
Tonga1.5-3.03.62.35.61.82.12.91.52.52.8
Vanuatu3.58.44.5-3.22.7-2.7-4.92.43.02.82.6
Vietnam7.18.25.84.86.86.97.17.37.77.57.0
Middle East3.44.74.22.04.93.74.26.55.55.45.0
Bahrain4.53.14.84.25.34.65.27.25.47.15.2
Egypt2.85.97.56.15.43.53.23.14.14.85.0
Iran, I.R. of3.13.42.71.95.13.77.56.75.65.75.4
Iraq. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .
Jordan3.03.33.03.44.35.35.74.17.75.02.5
Kuwait1.82.53.7-1.81.90.7-0.59.77.23.23.2
Lebanon-2.54.02.3-1.21.24.22.95.06.03.0
Libya-0.34.3-0.40.31.14.53.39.14.44.34.4
Oman4.46.22.7-0.25.57.52.31.94.53.86.2
Qatar1.431.111.74.59.14.57.38.69.35.57.1
Saudi Arabia3.02.52.8-0.74.90.50.17.75.26.04.7
Syrian Arab Republic5.85.06.8-3.60.63.84.22.63.43.54.0
United Arab Emirates6.36.74.33.95.08.04.111.38.55.64.2
Yemen. . .6.45.33.54.44.63.93.12.53.72.0
Western Hemisphere2.75.22.30.43.90.52.25.64.13.8
Antigua and Barbuda3.95.65.04.03.52.12.44.94.12.42.6
Argentina2.68.13.8-3.4-0.8-4.4-10.98.89.07.54.2
Bahamas, The2.94.96.84.01.90.81.41.93.03.54.0
Barbados0.74.66.20.52.3-2.60.52.04.43.13.3
Belize7.73.63.78.713.04.64.79.24.62.22.7
Bolivia3.95.05.00.42.51.72.42.83.63.92.5
Brazil2.13.30.10.84.41.31.90.54.93.33.5
Chile7.96.63.2-0.84.53.42.23.76.15.95.8
Colombia4.23.40.6-4.22.91.51.94.14.14.04.0
Costa Rica4.85.68.48.21.81.02.96.54.23.22.7
Dominica3.12.42.81.30.3-3.9-3.70.93.72.82.8
Dominican Republic3.88.37.38.17.84.04.3-1.62.04.54.5
Ecuador2.74.12.1-6.32.85.13.42.76.92.72.8
El Salvador4.34.23.73.42.21.72.21.81.52.02.0
Grenada3.54.47.97.37.0-4.40.85.8-3.00.97.0
Guatemala3.94.45.03.83.62.32.22.12.73.23.2
Guyana3.36.2-1.73.0-1.32.31.1-0.71.6-2.63.4
Haiti-1.02.72.22.70.9-1.0-0.50.5-3.81.52.5
Honduras3.65.02.9-1.95.72.62.73.54.64.24.5
Jamaica1.7-1.4-0.61.10.81.01.92.02.50.73.7
Mexico2.56.74.93.96.6-0.20.81.44.43.03.5
Netherlands Antilles3.00.80.9-2.2-3.92.21.21.7-0.10.71.5
Nicaragua-0.14.03.77.04.13.00.82.35.13.54.0
Panama2.76.57.33.92.70.62.24.36.03.54.0
Paraguay3.93.00.6-1.5-3.32.13.84.03.03.5
Peru0.76.8-0.70.92.90.24.94.04.85.54.5
St. Kitts and Nevis5.27.31.03.96.51.7-0.30.64.03.53.6
St. Lucia4.60.63.33.9-0.3-4.10.12.94.05.15.8
St. Vincent and the Grenadines4.43.14.64.11.81.13.73.94.04.44.2
Suriname0.65.71.6-0.9-0.14.53.05.34.64.93.3
Trinidad and Tobago0.32.87.84.47.34.36.813.26.26.310.1
Uruguay3.65.04.5-2.8-1.4-3.4-11.02.212.36.04.0
Venezuela2.36.40.3-6.03.73.4-8.9-7.717.97.84.5

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July–June to January–December).

Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July–June to January–December).

Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 7.Summary of Inflation(Percent)
Ten-Year Averages
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006
GDP deflators
Advanced economies3.31.61.71.30.91.41.91.61.61.81.71.7
United States2.82.01.71.11.42.22.41.72.02.62.52.1
Euro area1.81.51.61.01.42.72.52.01.91.61.7
Japan1.0-1.00.4-0.2-1.3-1.5-1.3-1.3-1.4-1.2-1.2-0.6
Other advanced economies14.61.92.62.01.01.92.01.72.01.91.82.3
Consumer prices
Advanced economies3.51.92.01.51.42.22.11.51.82.02.22.0
United States3.72.52.31.52.23.42.81.62.32.73.12.8
Euro area21.91.61.11.12.12.32.32.12.12.11.8
Japan1.3-0.11.70.6-0.3-0.9-0.7-1.0-0.2-0.4-0.1
Other advanced economies4.51.92.22.31.21.82.11.71.81.82.12.2
Other emerging market and
developing countries56.67.611.611.210.47.36.75.96.05.85.95.7
Regional groups
Africa28.610.213.59.111.513.112.29.610.47.88.27.0
Central and eastern Europe61.318.151.432.722.922.719.414.79.26.54.84.3
Commonwealth of Independent States320.618.123.769.624.620.313.812.010.312.610.5
Developing Asia11.03.74.97.82.51.92.72.12.64.24.24.7
Middle East15.37.88.68.48.55.95.46.57.18.410.09.7
Western Hemisphere181.98.011.99.08.27.66.18.910.66.56.35.4
Memorandum
European Union9.62.22.62.11.72.52.62.22.02.22.11.9
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel27.011.415.713.112.710.09.610.311.110.311.210.0
Nonfuel59.67.311.211.110.27.16.55.65.65.45.55.4
of which, primary products62.918.424.212.223.529.126.614.617.512.613.712.0
By external financing source
Net debtor countries65.49.013.615.210.69.18.48.37.66.06.25.8
of which, official financing41.78.98.817.99.96.17.29.47.86.98.16.9
Net debtor countries by debt- servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1999–200350.211.911.120.713.39.811.013.611.09.510.49.2
Memorandum
Median inflation rate
Advanced economies3.52.01.81.61.42.72.52.12.11.92.02.0
Other emerging market and
developing countries10.54.97.26.54.14.34.73.24.44.65.04.5

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 8.Advanced Economies: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year AveragesFourth Quarter1
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006200420052006
GDP deflators
Advanced economies3.31.61.71.30.91.41.91.61.61.81.71.7
United States2.82.01.71.11.42.22.41.72.02.62.52.12.92.42.0
Euro area1.81.51.61.01.42.72.52.01.91.61.71.61.61.7
Germany3.70.60.40.60.4-0.61.21.41.10.80.40.70.70.31.1
France2.31.31.01.1-0.11.51.82.21.41.61.31.71.51.51.8
Italy5.72.42.42.71.62.22.63.12.92.61.91.82.31.33.3
Spain5.63.42.32.42.72.24.24.44.04.14.13.54.54.43.0
Netherlands1.62.92.01.71.63.99.73.82.50.91.41.51.01.21.6
Belgium2.61.71.41.71.41.31.81.82.02.32.01.72.02.71.2
Austria2.91.30.30.61.81.71.41.42.01.81.82.11.71.5
Finland3.71.42.23.7-0.33.03.21.0-0.30.50.30.60.9-0.11.0
Greece14.43.96.85.23.03.43.54.03.53.43.13.04.11.82.1
Portugal8.53.33.83.83.13.54.34.42.82.52.52.72.82.42.8
Ireland2.94.47.76.54.05.55.75.02.02.22.82.62.93.32.0
Luxembourg2.72.42.72.82.64.01.31.22.61.92.32.6
Japan1.0-1.00.4-0.2-1.3-1.5-1.3-1.3-1.4-1.2-1.2-0.6-0.4-1.80.1
United Kingdom4.72.32.92.82.11.22.33.12.92.02.02.12.41.42.3
Canada2.72.01.2-0.41.74.11.11.03.33.12.32.23.52.32.0
Korea7.42.64.65.8-0.10.73.52.82.72.70.42.72.40.42.8
Australia3.42.71.60.50.54.14.02.53.13.64.42.74.14.22.0
Taiwan Province of China2.6-0.21.72.7-1.4-1.70.5-0.9-2.1-1.9-0.52.0-1.6-0.12.2
Sweden4.81.41.60.80.71.32.31.72.10.80.72.10.91.12.3
Switzerland2.50.8-0.1-0.30.70.80.61.70.90.91.31.21.11.21.2
Hong Kong SAR8.0-2.05.70.2-5.9-6.2-1.9-3.6-5.2-3.1-0.61.1-2.11.60.3
Denmark3.02.02.21.01.83.02.11.62.21.62.12.00.53.11.5
Norway3.24.52.9-0.76.615.91.1-1.62.45.09.05.87.510.42.3
Israel15.33.49.26.56.51.51.94.4-0.21.72.31.02.32.0
Singapore3.00.10.4-2.3-4.64.1-1.7-0.40.43.50.71.76.50.90.9
New Zealand3.52.21.51.50.72.74.10.42.23.32.92.64.73.02.4
Cyprus4.32.92.82.42.33.73.22.24.82.22.52.5
Iceland9.73.53.15.22.72.89.25.7-0.22.42.81.9
Memorandum
Major advanced economies2.91.41.41.00.81.31.61.41.51.71.61.52.01.31.7
Newly industrialized Asian economies5.81.13.63.7-1.4-0.61.70.80.30.72.31.00.52.3
Consumer prices
Advanced economies3.51.92.01.51.42.22.11.51.82.02.22.0
United States3.72.52.31.52.23.42.81.62.32.73.12.83.43.12.6
Euro area21.91.61.11.12.12.32.32.12.12.11.82.42.21.8
Germany2.61.41.50.60.61.41.91.31.01.81.71.72.11.91.6
France2.61.61.30.70.61.81.81.92.22.31.91.82.31.91.5
Italy5.22.21.92.01.72.62.32.62.82.32.12.02.22.11.9
Spain5.42.81.91.82.23.52.83.63.13.13.23.03.53.22.9
Japan1.3-0.11.70.6-0.3-0.9-0.7-1.0-0.2-0.4-0.10.6-0.80.2
United Kingdom24.21.51.81.61.40.81.21.31.41.32.01.91.42.01.8
Canada3.12.11.61.01.72.72.52.32.71.82.22.52.32.52.1
Other advanced economies5.12.12.63.00.92.02.41.71.82.02.02.3
Memorandum
Major advanced economies3.21.82.01.21.42.11.91.31.72.02.12.12.42.11.9
Newly industrialized Asian economies5.32.13.44.61.22.01.01.52.42.22.32.52.32.3

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Annual data are calculated from seasonally adjusted quarterly data.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Table 9.Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Hourly earnings
Advanced economies4.93.72.93.43.05.42.94.25.12.54.43.5
United States3.45.22.65.83.99.02.47.38.32.26.94.0
Euro area3.31.12.95.25.34.23.42.52.62.83.1
Germany5.82.31.41.32.53.63.52.42.50.72.53.0
France4.02.5-0.10.61.03.81.24.14.13.43.23.9
Italy6.82.64.2-1.42.33.13.32.33.03.52.92.7
Spain6.63.74.53.32.72.84.05.25.13.23.03.0
Japan3.70.73.10.8-0.7-0.10.9-1.31.00.41.41.3
United Kingdom6.83.84.24.64.04.74.33.53.63.62.63.4
Canada3.83.22.23.92.72.83.12.73.73.93.63.8
Other advanced economies9.24.74.93.15.55.75.53.14.44.94.65.1
Memorandum
Major advanced economies4.33.62.63.52.75.62.44.45.32.14.63.3
Newly industrialized Asian economies14.05.85.72.57.86.76.73.16.36.56.26.4
Productivity1
Advanced economies3.13.44.02.43.75.20.94.44.04.32.72.6
United States2.84.43.64.83.54.62.37.55.25.24.43.0
Euro area3.03.43.65.46.52.21.61.13.01.52.3
Germany3.33.25.30.32.65.33.01.14.34.92.82.8
France3.93.65.65.52.96.90.93.80.13.92.64.5
Italy2.80.42.7-0.61.53.8-0.8-2.0-0.8-0.3-0.41.1
Spain2.91.52.71.41.40.4-0.12.24.22.60.30.3
Japan2.72.65.0-3.63.36.8-3.03.75.35.31.81.7
United Kingdom3.43.41.54.54.46.33.41.55.15.80.31.4
Canada2.33.13.44.15.55.7-1.43.61.53.13.13.1
Other advanced economies4.03.54.41.37.16.7-0.44.23.73.22.23.3
Memorandum
Major advanced economies3.03.53.92.53.45.31.14.74.24.73.02.6
Newly industrialized Asian economies6.85.04.811.110.7-1.36.25.74.64.05.3
Unit labor costs
Advanced economies1.90.3-1.01.1-0.60.22.1-0.21.0-1.71.60.9
United States0.50.8-0.91.00.44.20.2-0.22.9-2.92.41.0
Euro area0.3-2.2-0.7-0.2-1.12.01.81.4-0.41.20.8
Germany2.4-0.9-3.71.0-0.2-1.70.51.3-1.7-4.0-0.30.2
France0.1-1.1-5.4-4.6-1.8-2.90.20.34.0-0.40.6-0.6
Italy3.92.21.5-0.80.8-0.74.14.33.93.73.31.5
Spain3.62.11.71.91.22.34.12.90.90.62.72.7
Japan1.0-1.8-1.84.6-3.8-6.54.0-4.8-4.1-4.7-0.4-0.4
United Kingdom23.30.42.60.1-0.4-1.50.92.0-1.5-2.02.32.0
Canada1.50.1-1.2-0.1-2.7-2.74.5-0.82.10.80.60.7
Other advanced economies5.01.00.62.2-1.3-1.15.7-1.10.41.32.11.5
Memorandum
Major advanced economies1.30.1-1.30.9-0.70.31.4-0.31.1-2.41.50.7
Newly industrialized Asian economies6.60.51.23.1-2.7-3.97.5-3.0-0.11.11.70.8

Refers to labor productivity, measured as the ratio of hourly compensation to unit labor costs.

Data refer to unit wage cost.

Refers to labor productivity, measured as the ratio of hourly compensation to unit labor costs.

Data refer to unit wage cost.

Table 10.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Consumer Prices(Annual percent change)
Ten-Year Averages
1987–961997–20061997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Other emerging market and
developing countries56.67.611.611.210.47.36.75.96.05.85.95.7
Regional groups
Africa28.610.213.59.111.513.112.29.610.47.88.27.0
Sub-Sahara33.912.516.410.714.416.815.211.913.09.39.88.2
Excluding Nigeria and South Africa52.717.824.313.623.228.121.813.418.213.812.610.2
Central and eastern Europe61.318.151.432.722.922.719.414.79.26.54.84.3
Commonwealth of Independent States120.618.123.769.624.620.313.812.010.312.610.5
Russia21.914.827.785.720.821.515.813.710.912.810.7
Excluding Russia17.526.315.337.034.217.69.38.39.012.110.1
Developing Asia11.03.74.97.82.51.92.72.12.64.24.24.7
China11.91.32.8-0.8-1.40.40.7-0.81.23.93.03.8
India9.55.37.213.24.74.03.84.33.83.83.95.1
Excluding China and India10.87.46.620.88.62.85.96.34.65.57.46.4
Middle East15.37.88.68.48.55.95.46.57.18.410.09.7
Western Hemisphere181.98.011.99.08.27.66.18.910.66.56.35.4
Brazil656.67.06.93.24.97.16.88.414.86.66.84.6
Mexico36.79.020.615.916.69.56.45.04.54.74.33.6
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel27.011.415.713.112.710.09.610.311.110.311.210.0
Nonfuel59.67.311.211.110.27.16.55.65.65.45.55.4
of which, primary products62.918.424.212.223.529.126.614.617.512.613.712.0
By external financing source
Net debtor countries65.49.013.615.210.69.18.48.37.66.06.25.8
of which, official financing41.78.98.817.99.96.17.29.47.86.98.16.9
Net debtor countries by debt- servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1999–200350.211.911.120.713.39.811.013.611.09.510.49.2
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries64.812.419.09.918.124.819.15.88.76.68.85.4
Middle East and north Africa16.16.98.77.77.35.04.85.76.17.38.48.3
Memorandum
Median
Other emerging market and
developing countries10.54.97.26.54.14.34.73.24.44.65.04.5
Africa10.55.06.45.94.05.14.83.45.64.35.24.9
Central and eastern Europe50.94.68.88.23.36.25.53.12.33.52.72.7
Commonwealth of Independent States111.617.49.423.518.79.85.65.67.112.17.1
Developing Asia8.74.96.28.34.22.53.83.73.85.65.55.0
Middle East7.12.63.33.02.11.01.61.41.94.63.73.6
Western Hemisphere13.44.57.05.13.54.83.64.24.54.44.34.0

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 11.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries—by Country: Consumer Prices1(Annual percent change)
Average
1987–961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Africa28.613.59.111.513.112.29.610.47.88.27.0
Algeria18.25.75.02.60.34.21.42.63.63.54.3
Angola313.3221.5107.4248.2325.0152.6108.998.343.622.010.5
Benin6.43.85.80.34.24.02.41.50.92.52.5
Botswana11.68.96.57.88.56.68.19.66.66.87.3
Burkina Faso3.72.45.0-1.1-0.34.72.32.0-0.44.02.0
Burundi11.331.112.53.424.39.3-1.310.78.016.37.8
Cameroon24.44.13.92.90.82.86.30.60.31.51.8
Cape Verde6.78.64.43.9-2.43.81.81.2-1.90.72.3
Central African Republic2.61.6-1.9-1.43.23.82.34.4-2.22.42.3
Chad4.75.64.3-8.43.812.45.2-1.8-5.33.03.0
Comoros3.11.51.21.14.65.63.53.84.53.03.0
Congo, Dem. Rep. of776.8199.029.1284.9550.0357.325.312.83.923.28.0
Congo, Rep. of3.313.11.83.10.40.83.11.53.62.02.5
Côte d’Ivoire6.24.24.50.72.54.43.13.31.53.03.0
Djibouti5.12.52.22.02.41.80.62.03.13.02.2
Equatorial Guinea4.93.76.06.54.88.87.67.34.26.05.5
Eritrea. . .3.79.58.419.914.616.922.725.114.012.1
Ethiopia7.1-6.43.64.86.2-5.2-7.215.18.66.86.0
Gabon3.94.12.3-0.70.52.10.22.10.41.01.0
Gambia, The8.82.81.13.80.94.58.617.014.25.05.2
Ghana31.127.914.612.425.232.914.826.712.614.38.7
Guinea8.41.95.14.66.85.43.012.917.526.311.8
Guinea-Bissau55.949.18.0-2.18.63.33.33.03.02.02.0
Kenya16.111.96.75.810.05.82.09.811.611.05.1
Lesotho12.48.57.88.66.16.911.77.65.04.35.0
Madagascar19.74.56.28.110.76.916.2-1.114.010.44.8
Malawi27.99.129.844.829.627.214.99.611.612.39.0
Mali2.9-0.74.1-1.2-0.75.22.4-1.3-3.13.82.5
Mauritania6.94.58.04.13.34.73.95.510.413.57.2
Mauritius7.56.47.06.95.54.85.95.14.35.35.8
Morocco4.81.02.70.71.90.62.81.21.52.02.0
Mozambique, Rep. of56.16.40.62.912.79.116.813.412.67.77.3
Namibia11.98.86.28.69.39.311.37.24.15.85.0
Niger3.22.94.5-2.32.94.02.7-1.80.42.42.0
Nigeria35.98.510.06.66.918.013.714.015.015.97.3
Rwanda15.511.76.8-2.43.93.42.07.412.07.04.0
São Tomé and Príncipe37.169.042.116.311.09.59.29.612.815.113.4
Senegal3.11.81.10.80.73.02.30.51.51.9
Seychelles1.70.62.76.34.21.90.23.23.92.34.5
Sierra Leone58.514.636.034.1-0.92.6-3.77.514.28.57.4
South Africa12.18.66.95.25.45.79.25.81.43.95.3
Sudan84.846.717.116.08.04.98.37.78.47.57.0
Swaziland11.57.97.55.97.27.511.77.43.55.55.8
Tanzania27.615.413.29.06.25.24.64.54.34.14.0
Togo5.35.31.0-0.11.93.93.1-0.91.21.72.0
Tunisia6.23.73.12.73.01.92.82.83.62.92.5
Uganda54.37.75.80.25.84.5-2.05.75.08.24.5
Zambia85.524.424.526.826.121.722.221.518.017.011.5
Zimbabwe20.718.831.358.055.673.4133.2365.0350.0190.4253.1
Central and eastern Europe361.351.432.722.922.719.414.79.26.54.84.3
Albania28.432.120.90.43.13.12.42.92.43.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina. . .5.6-0.42.95.03.20.30.60.41.01.9
Bulgaria63.21,061.218.82.610.47.55.82.36.14.43.5
Croatia. . .3.65.74.16.24.91.71.82.13.02.5
Czech Republic. . .8.510.62.13.94.71.80.12.82.02.5
Estonia. . .11.28.23.34.05.83.61.33.03.92.8
Hungary21.818.314.310.09.89.25.34.76.84.03.6
Latvia. . .8.44.62.42.62.51.92.96.36.35.1
Lithuania. . .8.85.10.71.01.30.3-1.21.22.72.5
Macedonia, FYR. . .2.6-0.1-2.06.25.32.41.2-0.31.21.8
Malta2.43.93.82.23.12.52.71.92.72.41.9
Poland78.214.911.87.310.15.51.90.83.52.22.5
Romania76.8154.859.145.845.734.522.515.311.98.86.9
Serbia and Montenegro. . .. . .29.542.169.991.121.211.39.515.49.3
Slovak Republic. . .6.16.710.712.07.33.38.57.52.72.7
Slovenia. . .8.47.96.28.98.47.55.63.62.62.5
Turkey70.985.083.663.554.353.944.825.210.38.46.9
Commonwealth of Independent States3,4. . .18.123.769.624.620.313.812.010.312.610.5
Russia. . .14.827.785.720.821.515.813.710.912.810.7
Excluding Russia. . .26.315.337.034.217.69.38.39.012.110.1
Armenia. . .14.08.70.6-0.83.21.14.76.92.23.9
Azerbaijan. . .3.7-0.8-8.51.81.52.82.26.712.78.3
Belarus. . .63.873.0293.7168.661.142.628.418.112.112.5
Georgia. . .7.03.619.14.04.75.64.85.79.07.0
Kazakhstan. . .17.47.38.413.38.45.96.46.97.47.1
Kyrgyz Republic. . .23.4-18.635.918.76.92.13.14.15.04.0
Moldova. . .11.87.739.331.39.85.311.712.513.311.9
Mongolia50.036.69.47.611.66.30.95.17.912.14.3
Tajikistan. . .88.043.227.532.938.612.216.47.17.25.0
Turkmenistan. . .83.716.823.58.011.68.85.65.913.55.0
Ukraine. . .15.910.622.728.212.00.85.29.014.212.1
Uzbekistan. . .70.916.744.649.547.544.314.88.814.113.0
Developing Asia11.04.97.82.51.92.72.12.64.24.24.7
Afghanistan, I.S. of. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .5.023.914.312.07.5
Bangladesh7.45.08.66.22.21.53.85.46.16.25.8
Bhutan9.89.09.09.23.63.62.71.84.55.05.0
Brunei Darussalam. . .1.7-0.41.20.6-2.30.30.91.01.0
Cambodia. . .9.213.3-0.5-0.80.73.70.55.65.53.5
China11.92.8-0.8-1.40.40.7-0.81.23.93.03.8
Fiji5.43.45.92.01.14.30.84.22.84.23.5
India9.57.213.24.74.03.84.33.83.83.95.1
Indonesia8.36.258.020.73.811.511.86.86.18.26.5
Kiribati1.82.23.71.81.07.31.11.6-0.60.52.5
Lao PDR11.219.590.1128.423.27.810.615.510.55.95.0
Malaysia3.02.75.32.71.51.41.81.11.43.02.5
Maldives10.17.6-1.43.0-1.20.70.9-2.96.46.52.8
Myanmar24.333.949.110.9-1.734.558.124.910.021.032.5
Nepal10.68.18.311.43.42.42.94.74.04.14.0
Pakistan9.711.46.54.14.43.13.22.97.49.99.8
Papua New Guinea6.73.913.614.915.69.311.814.72.12.42.5
Philippines9.75.99.76.54.36.83.03.56.08.27.5
Samoa5.76.92.20.31.03.88.14.22.42.42.2
Solomon Islands12.18.012.38.06.97.69.410.16.96.28.1
Sri Lanka12.19.69.44.76.214.29.66.37.614.09.5
Thailand4.85.68.10.31.61.70.61.82.74.22.7
Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of. . .. . .. . .. . .63.63.64.87.13.32.52.5
Tonga5.71.82.93.94.97.310.010.711.811.29.0
Vanuatu2.72.83.32.22.53.72.03.01.01.92.7
Vietnam71.03.27.74.2-1.6-0.44.03.27.78.05.5
Middle East15.38.68.48.55.95.46.57.18.410.09.7
Bahrain0.64.6-0.4-1.3-3.6-1.2-0.51.64.93.71.6
Egypt515.36.24.73.72.82.42.43.28.18.88.0
Iran, I.R. of525.517.318.120.112.611.415.815.615.618.518.5
Iraq. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .
Jordan5.43.03.10.60.71.81.81.63.43.78.4
Kuwait3.10.80.63.11.61.40.81.01.81.81.8
Lebanon72.87.74.50.2-0.4-0.41.81.33.02.02.0
Libya7.23.63.72.6-2.9-8.8-9.9-2.1-1.01.82.5
Oman2.1-0.40.40.5-1.2-0.8-0.20.20.81.91.1
Qatar3.51.12.92.21.71.41.02.36.83.02.7
Saudi Arabia1.1-0.4-0.2-1.3-0.6-0.80.20.60.31.01.0
Syrian Arab Republic18.11.9-1.0-3.7-3.93.00.65.04.610.05.0
United Arab Emirates4.22.92.02.11.42.82.93.14.66.04.5
Yemen38.14.611.58.010.911.912.210.812.510.311.4
Western Hemisphere181.911.99.08.27.66.18.910.66.56.35.4
Antigua and Barbuda4.40.23.41.1-1.70.22.21.0-1.3
Argentina182.00.50.9-1.2-0.9-1.125.913.44.49.510.4
Bahamas, The4.00.51.31.31.62.02.23.00.91.82.0
Barbados3.67.7-1.31.62.42.80.21.61.43.22.0
Belize2.81.0-0.9-1.20.61.22.22.63.13.51.9
Bolivia13.54.77.72.24.61.60.93.34.45.53.2
Brazil656.66.93.24.97.16.88.414.86.66.84.6
Chile15.36.15.13.33.83.62.52.81.12.93.3
Colombia25.018.518.710.99.28.06.37.15.95.24.8
Costa Rica18.713.211.710.011.011.39.29.412.312.69.5
Dominica3.32.41.01.20.91.60.11.62.41.31.5
Dominican Republic21.88.34.86.57.78.95.227.451.53.77.8
Ecuador42.430.636.152.296.137.712.67.92.72.02.0
El Salvador16.04.52.5-1.04.31.42.82.55.44.04.0
Grenada2.81.31.40.52.21.71.12.22.33.02.0
Guatemala16.19.26.65.26.07.38.15.67.67.65.3
Guyana36.13.64.77.46.12.75.46.04.76.04.6
Haiti17.216.212.78.111.516.88.732.527.116.69.6
Honduras16.720.213.711.611.09.77.77.78.18.15.8
Jamaica27.59.18.16.37.78.06.512.912.812.58.1
Mexico36.720.615.916.69.56.45.04.54.74.33.6
Netherlands Antilles2.83.21.30.85.01.70.41.91.52.72.4
Nicaragua497.87.318.57.29.94.74.06.69.39.06.0
Panama0.91.30.61.21.40.31.01.42.32.61.8
Paraguay20.87.011.66.89.07.310.514.24.34.84.7
Peru287.48.57.33.53.82.00.22.33.71.82.6
St. Kitts and Nevis2.68.73.73.42.12.12.12.32.11.82.0
St. Lucia3.72.83.53.62.1-0.31.01.53.04.0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines3.40.52.11.00.20.81.30.23.02.61.9
Suriname63.87.319.198.758.639.815.523.19.08.66.6
Trinidad and Tobago7.93.65.63.43.55.54.23.83.75.35.0
Uruguay64.019.810.85.74.84.414.019.4 9.25.26.5
Venezuela49.050.035.823.616.212.522.431.121.716.618.0

In accordance with standard practice in the World Economic Outlook, movements in consumer prices are indicated as annual averages rather than as December/December changes, as is the practice in some countries. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July–June to January–December).

For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Data refer to fiscal years.

In accordance with standard practice in the World Economic Outlook, movements in consumer prices are indicated as annual averages rather than as December/December changes, as is the practice in some countries. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.

The percent changes in 2002 are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July–June to January–December).

For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Data refer to fiscal years.

Table 12.Summary Financial Indicators(Percent)
1997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Advanced economies
Central government fiscal balance1
Advanced economies-1.6-1.1-1.10.2-1.0-2.4-3.0-2.8-2.6-2.6
United States-0.60.51.22.00.5-2.4-3.4-3.1-2.6-2.9
Euro area-2.6-2.4-1.6-0.4-1.6-2.1-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.3
Japan-4.0-3.8-8.5-6.9-6.3-6.9-7.1-7.0-6.9-6.7
Other advanced economies2-0.4-0.30.32.20.6-0.2-0.7-0.3-0.1
General government fiscal balance1
Advanced economies-1.9-1.4-1.1-1.5-3.4-3.9-3.4-3.3-3.4
United States-1.10.10.61.3-0.7-4.0-4.6-4.0-3.7-3.9
Euro area-2.6-2.3-1.3-0.9-1.8-2.5-2.8-2.7-3.0-3.1
Japan-3.8-5.5-7.2-7.5-6.1-7.9-7.8-7.2-6.7-6.2
Other advanced economies2-0.6-0.20.62.60.3-0.8-1.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
General government structural balance3
Advanced economies-2.0-1.6-1.4-1.2-1.8-3.2-3.4-3.2-3.1-3.1
Growth of broad money4
Advanced economies5.06.75.94.98.75.85.55.1
United States5.68.46.26.110.26.85.45.2
Euro area54.64.95.44.111.26.76.56.4
Japan3.94.02.71.93.31.81.61.8
Other advanced economies26.19.39.16.97.46.28.05.6
Short-term interest rates5
United States5.24.94.86.03.51.61.01.43.14.2
Euro area3.73.04.44.33.32.32.12.12.4
Japan0.30.20.00.20.00.00.00.00.10.2
LIBOR5.95.65.56.63.71.91.21.83.64.5
Other emerging market and developing countries
Central government fiscal balance1
Weighted average-2.9-3.8-4.0-3.0-3.3-3.5-2.9-1.7-1.1-0.7
Median-2.5-3.0-3.1-2.7-3.6-3.7-3.1-2.6-2.5-2.1
General government fiscal balance1
Weighted average-3.8-4.9-4.8-3.5-4.1-4.4-3.6-2.2-1.5-1.1
Median-2.4-3.3-3.3-2.8-3.4-3.8-2.9-2.3-2.4-2.1
Growth of broad money
Weighted average19.318.017.713.114.517.5 16.716.815.213.4
Median17.211.312.814.013.613.213.313.111.510.7

Percent of GDP.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Percent of potential GDP.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs). Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

Annual data are period average. For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for the euro area, the three-month EURIBOR; and for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

Percent of GDP.

In this table, “other advanced economies” means advanced economies excluding the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Percent of potential GDP.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs). Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

Annual data are period average. For the United States, three-month treasury bills; for Japan, three-month certificates of deposit; for the euro area, the three-month EURIBOR; and for LIBOR, London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

Table 13.Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Fiscal Balances and Balances Excluding Social Security Transactions1(Percent of GDP)
1997199819992000200120022003200420052006
General government fiscal balance
Advanced economies-1.9-1.4-1.1-1.5-3.4-3.9-3.4-3.3-3.4
United States-1.10.10.61.3-0.7-4.0-4.6-4.0-3.7-3.9
Euro area-2.6-2.3-1.3-0.9-1.8-2.5-2.8-2.7-3.0-3.1
Germany-2.7-2.2-1.51.3-2.8-3.7-4.0-3.7-3.9-3.7
France2-3.0-2.6-2.5-1.5-1.5-3.1-4.2-3.7-3.5-3.9
Italy-2.7-2.8-1.7-0.8-3.2-2.7-3.2-3.2-4.3-5.1
Spain-3.1-2.9-1.1-0.9-0.5-0.30.3-0.30.30.3
Netherlands-1.1-0.80.72.2-0.3-2.0-3.2-2.1-2.3-2.5
Belgium-2.0-0.7-0.40.20.60.10.4-0.8-2.0
Austria3-2.0-2.5-2.3-1.60.1-0.4-1.3-1.2-2.0-1.8
Finland-1.21.62.27.15.24.22.31.91.51.5
Greece-6.6-4.3-3.4-4.1-3.6-4.2-5.2-6.1-4.3-4.1
Portugal-3.0-2.6-2.8-2.9-4.4-2.7-2.8-2.9-6.2-4.8
Ireland41.42.32.44.30.8-0.40.21.4-1.1-0.6
Luxembourg3.23.23.76.06.42.80.8-1.3-1.7-2.1
Japan-3.8-5.5-7.2-7.5-6.1-7.9-7.8-7.2-6.7-6.2
United Kingdom-2.21.13.90.8-1.5-3.2-3.0-3.2-3.4
Canada0.20.11.62.90.7-0.10.70.50.3
Korea5-1.5-3.9-3.01.10.62.32.72.32.22.8
Australia60.10.41.41.80.91.11.71.61.31.1
Taiwan Province of China-3.8-3.4-6.0-4.7-6.7-4.5-2.9-3.4-3.0-2.8
Sweden-1.01.92.35.12.9-0.30.50.70.60.4
Switzerland-2.7-1.5-0.62.20.1-1.2-1.6-1.0-1.4-1.2
Hong Kong SAR6.5-1.80.8-0.6-5.0-4.9-3.2-0.8-0.70.1
Denmark0.41.13.22.52.81.61.21.41.61.7
Norway7.73.66.215.613.69.37.611.416.718.3
Israel-4.5-3.7-4.2-2.0-3.9-4.2-6.5-5.1-5.1-4.7
Singapore9.23.64.67.94.84.05.85.24.54.2
New Zealand72.22.11.51.31.61.73.54.64.13.7
Cyprus-5.1-4.2-4.4-2.4-2.3-4.5-6.3-4.2-3.0-2.8
Iceland0.52.42.50.20.2-1.00.41.00.8
Memorandum
Major advanced economies-2.0-1.5-1.2-0.2-1.8-4.1-4.6-4.1-4.0-4.1
Newly industrialized Asian economies0.3-2.2-3.2-2.2-4.8-3.5-1.9-1.7-1.5-1.2
Fiscal balance excluding social security transactions
United States-1.5-0.6-0.40.2-1.5-4.4-5.1-4.3-4.1-4.4
Japan-5.5-6.9-8.3-8.0-6.2-7.7-7.9-6.9-6.3-5.8
Germany-2.7-2.3-1.71.3-2.6-3.4-3.6-3.6-3.2-3.0
France-2.6-2.9-3.1-2.0-1.7-2.9-3.5-2.7-2.9-3.3
Italy-0.71.32.73.30.81.51.11.20.2-0.3
Canada3.02.73.94.82.41.41.42.11.91.7
Central government fiscal balance
Advanced economies-1.6-1.1-1.10.2-1.0-2.4-3.0-2.8-2.6-2.6
United States8-0.60.51.22.00.5-2.4-3.4-3.1-2.6-2.9
Euro area-2.6-2.4-1.6-0.4-1.6-2.1-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.3
Germany9-1.6-1.8-1.51.4-1.3-1.7-1.8-2.3-2.1-2.1
France-3.6-3.7-2.5-2.4-2.2-3.8-3.9-3.2-3.1-2.8
Italy-2.9-2.7-1.5-1.1-3.0-2.9-2.7-2.6-3.2-3.7
Spain-2.6-2.3-1.0-0.9-0.6-0.5-0.3-1.2-0.5-0.4
Japan10-4.0-3.8-8.5-6.9-6.3-6.9-7.1-7.0-6.9-6.7
United Kingdom-2.21.23.90.9-1.6-3.5-3.0-3.2-3.5
Canada0.70.80.91.91.10.80.10.60.30.3
Other advanced economies0.2-0.8-0.41.30.30.10.60.91.31.6
Memorandum
Major advanced economies-1.7-1.0-1.10.1-1.2-3.0-3.6-3.5-3.2-3.4
Newly industrialized Asian economies0.7-1.2-1.10.8-0.8-0.30.20.40.50.9

On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included.

Data include the impact of discharging future pension liabilities of the formerly state-owned telecommunications company at a cost of 1.8 percent of GDP in 1999.

Data cover the consolidated central government including the social security funds but excluding privatization.

Cash basis, underlying balance.

Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts.

Data are on a budget basis.

Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

On a national income accounts basis except as indicated in footnotes. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.

Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

Based on ESA95 methodology, according to which swap income is not included.

Data include the impact of discharging future pension liabilities of the formerly state-owned telecommunications company at a cost of 1.8 percent of GDP in 1999.

Data cover the consolidated central government including the social security funds but excluding privatization.

Cash basis, underlying balance.

Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts.

Data are on a budget basis.

Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

Table 14.Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances1(Percent of potential GDP)
1997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Structural balance
Advanced economies-2.0-1.6-1.4-1.2-1.8-3.2-3.4-3.2-3.1-3.1
United States-1.4-0.5-0.30.3-0.8-3.5-3.8-3.5-3.2-3.5
Euro area2,3-1.9-2.0-1.6-1.8-2.4-2.6-2.5-2.2-2.3-2.3
Germany2-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.7-3.1-3.5-3.4-3.2-3.3-2.9
France2-1.1-1.8-2.2-2.1-2.1-3.1-3.4-2.6-2.6-2.4
Italy2-2.9-3.1-2.0-2.7-3.9-3.5-2.8-2.9-3.4-4.0
Spain2-1.2-1.6-0.4-1.4-1.3-0.50.30.60.90.9
Netherlands2-1.1-1.4-0.7-0.2-1.2-2.3-2.4-1.2-0.8-0.9
Belgium2-2.0-0.7-1.0-1.6-0.7-0.1-1.00.1-0.2-1.4
Austria2-1.9-2.7-2.8-3.4-0.6-0.2-0.2-0.7-1.6-1.7
Finland-2.0-0.2-0.25.85.04.42.61.71.61.3
Greece-3.9-2.5-2.0-4.1-3.8-4.4-5.9-6.9-5.0-4.5
Portugal2-2.6-3.0-3.8-4.0-4.7-4.8-4.8-4.5-5.2-3.8
Ireland20.51.81.02.6-0.5-1.20.41.7-1.0-0.8
Japan-4.3-5.3-6.6-7.3-5.5-6.8-6.9-6.8-6.6-6.2
United Kingdom2-2.2-0.11.01.30.3-1.7-3.1-3.0-3.2-3.2
Canada0.70.51.32.00.4-0.20.30.90.70.4
Other advanced economies-1.1-0.8-0.10.80.70.30.60.50.3
Australia4-1.8-1.6-0.7-0.2-0.20.10.60.70.80.7
Sweden0.52.72.04.33.00.30.91.81.40.7
Denmark0.82.22.22.52.02.32.01.71.7
Norway5-3.2-4.5-3.7-2.5-1.2-3.9-5.5-4.7-5.0-5.1
New Zealand61.71.80.91.22.13.34.44.54.33.7
Memorandum
Major advanced economies-2.1-1.6-1.5-1.4-2.0-3.7-3.9-3.7-3.6-3.6

On a national income accounts basis. The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit (or surplus) less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.

Excludes one-off receipts from the sale of mobile telephone licenses equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2001 and 2002 for France, 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy, 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2000 for Spain, 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for the Netherlands, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium, 0.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for Austria, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2000 for Portugal, and 0.2 percent of GDP in 2002 for Ireland. Also excludes one-off receipts from sizable asset transactions, in particular 0.5 percent of GDP for France in 2005.

Excludes Luxembourg.

Excludes commonwealth government privatization receipts.

Excludes oil.

Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts.

On a national income accounts basis. The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit (or surplus) less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude. Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.

Excludes one-off receipts from the sale of mobile telephone licenses equivalent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2001 and 2002 for France, 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy, 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2000 for Spain, 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for the Netherlands, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium, 0.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for Austria, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2000 for Portugal, and 0.2 percent of GDP in 2002 for Ireland. Also excludes one-off receipts from sizable asset transactions, in particular 0.5 percent of GDP for France in 2005.

Excludes Luxembourg.

Excludes commonwealth government privatization receipts.

Excludes oil.

Government balance is revenue minus expenditure plus balance of state-owned enterprises, excluding privatization receipts.

Table 15.Advanced Economies: Monetary Aggregates1(Annual percent change)
19971998199920002001200220032004
Narrow money2
Advanced economies4.55.88.22.69.89.17.96.3
United States-1.22.01.9-1.76.93.37.15.4
Euro area37.310.711.05.49.710.09.68.7
Japan8.65.011.73.513.723.54.54.0
United Kingdom6.35.811.74.58.06.17.35.8
Canada410.68.78.914.415.34.611.111.5
Memorandum
Newly industrialized Asian economies-4.00.919.84.611.413.413.99.3
Broad money5
Advanced economies5.06.75.94.98.75.85.55.1
United States5.68.46.26.110.26.85.45.2
Euro area34.64.95.44.111.26.76.56.4
Japan3.94.02.71.93.31.81.61.8
United Kingdom5.78.44.18.46.77.07.28.8
Canada4-1.30.85.16.66.05.06.06.3
Memorandum
Newly industrialized Asian economies11.620.017.314.47.35.76.83.4

End-of-period based on monthly data.

M1 except for the United Kingdom, where M0 is used here as a measure of narrow money; it comprises notes in circulation plus bankers’ operational deposits. M1 is generally currency in circulation plus private demand deposits. In addition, the United States includes traveler’s checks of nonbank issues and other checkable deposits and excludes private sector float and demand deposits of banks. Canada excludes private sector float.

Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

Average of Wednesdays.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, and the United Kingdom, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs), and M4, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the United Kingdom, M4 is composed of non-interest-bearing M1, private sector interest-bearing sterling sight bank deposits, private sector sterling time bank deposits, private sector holdings of sterling bank CDs, private sector holdings of building society shares and deposits, and sterling CDs less building society of banks deposits and bank CDs and notes and coins. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

End-of-period based on monthly data.

M1 except for the United Kingdom, where M0 is used here as a measure of narrow money; it comprises notes in circulation plus bankers’ operational deposits. M1 is generally currency in circulation plus private demand deposits. In addition, the United States includes traveler’s checks of nonbank issues and other checkable deposits and excludes private sector float and demand deposits of banks. Canada excludes private sector float.

Excludes Greece prior to 2001.

Average of Wednesdays.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan, and the United Kingdom, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs), and M4, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. For the United Kingdom, M4 is composed of non-interest-bearing M1, private sector interest-bearing sterling sight bank deposits, private sector sterling time bank deposits, private sector holdings of sterling bank CDs, private sector holdings of building society shares and deposits, and sterling CDs less building society of banks deposits and bank CDs and notes and coins. For the euro area, M3 is composed of M2 plus marketable instruments held by euro-area residents, which comprise repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units, money market paper, and debt securities up to two years.

Table 16.Advanced Economies: Interest Rates(Percent a year)
August
199719981999200020012002200320042005
Policy-related interest rate1
United States5.54.75.36.41.81.21.02.23.3
Euro area23.04.83.32.82.02.02.0
Japan0.40.30.00.20.00.00.00.00.0
United Kingdom7.36.35.56.04.04.03.84.84.5
Canada4.35.04.85.82.32.82.82.52.5
Short-term interest rate2
Advanced economies4.14.03.44.43.22.01.61.82.5
United States5.24.94.86.03.51.61.01.42.9
Euro area3.73.04.44.33.32.32.12.1
Japan0.30.20.00.20.00.00.00.00.0
United Kingdom6.97.45.56.15.04.03.74.64.8
Canada3.24.74.75.53.92.62.92.22.7
Memorandum
Newly industrialized Asian economies9.310.64.64.63.70.73.03.73.4
Long-term interest rate3
Advanced economies5.54.54.75.04.44.23.73.93.6
United States6.45.35.66.05.04.64.04.34.2
Euro area6.14.84.75.55.04.94.24.33.5
Japan2.11.31.71.71.31.31.01.51.3
United Kingdom6.85.15.25.05.04.84.54.84.4
Canada6.15.35.65.95.55.34.84.63.8
Memorandum
Newly industrialized Asian economies9.09.76.86.95.04.84.84.94.3

Annual data are end of period. For the United States, federal funds rate; for Japan, overnight call rate; for the euro area, main refinancing rate; for the United Kingdom, base lending rate; and for Canada, target rate for overnight money market financing.

Annual data are period average. For the United States, three-month treasury bill market bid yield at constant maturity; for Japan, three-month bond yield with repurchase agreement; for the euro area, three-month EURIBOR; for the United Kingdom, three-month interbank offered rate; for the Canada, three-month treasury bill yield.

Annual data are period average. For the United States, 10-year treasury bond yield at constant maturity; for Japan, 10-year government bond yield; for the euro area, a weighted average of national 10-year government bond yields through 1998 and 10-year euro bond yield thereafter; for the United Kingdom, 10-year government bond yield; and for Canada, 10-year government bond yield.

Annual data are end of period. For the United States, federal funds rate; for Japan, overnight call rate; for the euro area, main refinancing rate; for the United Kingdom, base lending rate; and for Canada, target rate for overnight money market financing.

Annual data are period average. For the United States, three-month treasury bill market bid yield at constant maturity; for Japan, three-month bond yield with repurchase agreement; for the euro area, three-month EURIBOR; for the United Kingdom, three-month interbank offered rate; for the Canada, three-month treasury bill yield.

Annual data are period average. For the United States, 10-year treasury bond yield at constant maturity; for Japan, 10-year government bond yield; for the euro area, a weighted average of national 10-year government bond yields through 1998 and 10-year euro bond yield thereafter; for the United Kingdom, 10-year government bond yield; and for Canada, 10-year government bond yield.

Table 17.Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates
Exchange Rate

Assumption
199719981999200020012002200320042005
U.S. dollars per national currency unit
U.S. dollar nominal exchange rates
Euro1.0670.9240.8960.9441.1311.2431.249
Pound sterling1.6381.6561.6181.5161.4401.5011.6341.8321.815
National currency units per U.S. dollar
Japanese yen120.8130.4113.5107.7121.5125.2115.8108.1108.9
Canadian dollar1.3841.4821.4861.4851.5481.5691.3971.2991.228
Swedish krona7.6287.9488.2579.13210.3149.7078.0687.3387.436
Danish krone6.5976.6916.9678.0608.3177.8706.5775.9855.977
Swiss franc1.4511.4471.5001.6871.6861.5541.3461.2421.244
Norwegian krone7.0597.5447.7978.7828.9897.9327.0746.7306.439
Israeli new sheqel3.4473.7864.1384.0774.2054.7354.5484.4814.476
Icelandic krona70.8970.9472.3078.2896.8491.1976.6470.0763.85
Cyprus pound0.5130.5170.5420.6210.6430.6090.5170.4680.462
Korean won931.51,389.21,188.41,130.31,290.81,249.01,191.21,144.11,014.8
Australian dollar1.3441.5891.5501.7171.9321.8391.5341.3581.309
New Taiwan dollar28.62233.43432.26331.21633.78734.57134.44133.44031.743
Hong Kong dollar7.7427.7457.7577.7917.7997.7997.7877.7887.784
Singapore dollar1.4851.6741.6951.7241.7921.7911.7421.6901.638
Index, 2000 = 100Percent change

from previous

assumption2
Real effective exchange rates1
United States87.092.492.1100.0108.8107.394.386.72.2
Japan87.181.592.8100.088.780.678.278.6-2.6
Euro3123.8120.4113.4100.099.2102.2112.8115.5-1.1
Germany113.7110.9107.2100.098.899.4103.3103.9-0.5
France107.3106.8105.3100.098.799.8103.5104.4-0.5
United Kingdom88.493.695.4100.099.6101.798.0103.3-1.7
Italy107.5105.5104.6100.099.1101.0105.6107.2-0.5
Canada107.0100.499.5100.096.295.6106.6114.03.9
Spain99.6101.6101.6100.0102.1104.9109.8112.0-0.3
Netherlands103.6104.8103.5100.0101.8105.1109.4110.1-0.4
Belgium110.0109.2104.6100.0100.9100.3103.5104.0-0.4
Sweden106.3104.4101.2100.090.993.198.7101.2-3.0
Austria107.5105.6103.2100.099.3100.2103.3104.6-0.3
Denmark103.3104.9104.4100.0101.1103.1108.4110.8-0.4
Finland111.2109.9105.6100.0100.199.8102.6102.5-0.3
Greece107.6103.8104.3100.0100.1103.2108.4111.2-0.2
Portugal99.2100.7101.1100.0102.3105.1109.9112.3-0.2
Ireland132.7120.4112.0100.098.799.5105.6106.3-0.7
Switzerland96.7101.7101.4100.0104.6110.5112.4114.6-1.5
Norway93.894.799.0100.0105.5118.5119.0118.01.7
Australia114.8101.8105.2100.093.297.8107.6114.92.2
New Zealand129.7112.6111.3100.096.2105.0120.5129.7-2.6

Defined as the ratio, in common currency, of the normalized unit labor costs in the manufacturing sector to the weighted average of those of its industrial country trading partners, using 1999–2001 trade weights.

In nominal effective terms. Average May 6, 2005–June 3, 2005 rates compared with July 8, 2005–August 5, 2005 rates.

A synthetic euro for the period prior to January 1, 1999 is used in the calculation of real effective exchange rates for the euro. See Box 5.5 in the World Economic Outlook, October 1998.

Defined as the ratio, in common currency, of the normalized unit labor costs in the manufacturing sector to the weighted average of those of its industrial country trading partners, using 1999–2001 trade weights.

In nominal effective terms. Average May 6, 2005–June 3, 2005 rates compared with July 8, 2005–August 5, 2005 rates.

A synthetic euro for the period prior to January 1, 1999 is used in the calculation of real effective exchange rates for the euro. See Box 5.5 in the World Economic Outlook, October 1998.

Table 18.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Central Government Fiscal Balances(Percent of GDP)
1997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Other emerging market and
developing countries-2.9-3.8-4.0-3.0-3.3-3.5-2.9-1.7-1.1-0.7
Regional groups
Africa-2.8-3.8-3.5-1.3-2.1-2.5-1.9-0.20.62.4
Sub-Sahara-3.5-3.7-3.8-2.4-2.5-2.7-2.5-0.8-0.31.2
Excluding Nigeria and South Africa-3.7-3.4-4.9-4.5-2.8-3.4-3.1-2.1-1.5-0.2
Central and eastern Europe-3.9-4.0-6.0-4.9-7.1-7.5-5.7-4.7-4.1-3.7
Commonwealth of Independent States1-6.9-5.3-4.00.31.81.01.22.76.06.6
Russia-7.7-6.0-4.20.82.71.31.64.48.69.6
Excluding Russia-4.6-3.1-3.2-1.4-0.70.20.1-1.7-1.2-1.6
Developing Asia-2.6-3.6-4.5-4.7-4.2-4.0-3.5-2.6-2.7-2.5
China-1.9-3.0-4.0-3.6-3.1-3.3-2.8-1.7-1.7-1.5
India-4.7-5.3-6.6-7.2-6.6-6.1-5.3-4.5-4.5-4.1
Excluding China and India-2.0-2.9-3.1-4.3-4.1-3.3-3.2-2.9-3.0-3.1
Middle East-1.6-5.2-1.84.3-0.5-2.2-0.11.66.87.8
Western Hemisphere-1.9-3.4-2.9-2.4-2.6-3.1-3.1-1.5-2.1-1.6
Brazil-2.6-5.4-2.7-2.3-2.1-0.8-4.0-1.5-3.8-2.6
Mexico-1.9-2.3-2.2-1.6-1.3-1.6-1.6-0.3-0.7-0.7
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel-1.0-5.9-2.36.30.2-1.81.04.110.112.4
Nonfuel-3.0-3.7-4.1-3.8-3.5-3.6-3.2-2.1-2.0-1.6
of which, primary products-2.1-2.3-3.8-4.5-2.9-3.0-3.0-1.6-1.0-0.9
By external financing source
Net debtor countries-3.2-3.9-4.3-4.2-4.3-4.3-3.9-2.9-3.0-2.6
of which, official financing-2.9-3.2-3.6-4.1-4.0-4.6-3.0-2.6-2.5-2.6
Net debtor countries by debt- servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1999–2003-2.5-2.9-3.1-3.1-3.3-3.9-2.3-1.3-0.9-0.3
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries-3.2-3.5-4.4-5.3-4.1-4.4-4.5-3.6-2.9-2.6
Middle East and north Africa-1.4-4.7-1.83.7-0.5-2.1-0.11.65.97.3
Memorandum
Median
Other emerging market and developing countries-2.5-3.0-3.1-2.7-3.6-3.7-3.1-2.6-2.5-2.1
Africa-2.4-3.5-3.2-2.8-3.4-4.1-3.1-3.0-2.4-2.1
Central and eastern Europe-2.0-2.9-3.2-2.5-3.5-5.1-3.5-3.0-3.5-2.7
Commonwealth of Independent States1-4.7-4.4-3.7-1.0-1.6-0.6-0.7-0.9-1.6-1.9
Developing Asia-3.0-2.3-3.3-4.1-4.4-4.2-3.2-2.5-3.5-2.9
Middle East-2.1-5.7-1.35.20.8-0.8-0.2-0.23.43.6
Western Hemisphere-2.5-2.3-2.9-2.6-4.1-5.0-3.9-2.9-2.8-1.9

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.

Table 19.Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Broad Money Aggregates(Annual percent change)
1997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Other emerging market and
developing countries19.318.017.713.114.517.516.716.815.213.4
Regional groups
Africa19.018.319.120.118.321.420.117.917.413.7
Sub-Sahara20.516.821.222.918.524.823.120.619.314.0
Central and eastern Europe51.837.137.124.030.612.211.613.212.511.2
Commonwealth of Independent States130.934.753.225.440.964.038.734.135.930.8
Russia28.837.648.115.040.177.339.433.737.833.5
Excluding Russia39.024.870.358.243.034.236.635.129.821.8
Developing Asia18.118.414.412.313.115.516.214.613.513.0
China19.614.814.712.314.819.719.614.513.012.0
India17.620.218.616.213.915.115.918.016.216.6
Excluding China and India16.821.511.59.69.58.510.312.112.512.3
Middle East10.08.510.712.514.017.113.819.017.211.6
Western Hemisphere12.111.010.17.16.513.615.015.911.29.7
Brazil-7.35.57.83.313.323.63.719.312.09.4
Mexico28.725.019.712.916.010.813.512.68.58.3
Analytical groups
By source of export earnings
Fuel18.914.416.218.914.619.320.523.220.414.6
Nonfuel19.318.417.912.514.517.316.316.014.513.3
of which, primary products24.217.420.222.421.520.722.225.720.312.0
By external financing source
Net debtor countries18.118.116.812.813.014.013.915.112.811.9
of which, official financing23.521.610.410.2-1.010.320.713.313.412.7
Net debtor countries by debt- servicing experience
Countries with arrears and/or
rescheduling during 1999–200325.323.412.714.90.414.326.817.317.815.3
Other groups
Heavily indebted poor countries20.420.123.330.221.119.515.215.414.212.8
Middle East and north Africa11.011.011.212.714.716.413.817.417.012.0
Memorandum
Median
Other emerging market and developing countries17.211.312.814.013.613.213.313.111.510.7
Africa14.08.612.114.114.417.714.313.412.411.8
Central and eastern Europe34.113.014.216.521.410.410.913.511.311.9
Commonwealth of Independent States133.925.332.139.036.434.129.816.118.415.0
Developing Asia17.611.714.712.311.713.414.614.112.811.9
Middle East9.98.311.310.213.412.810.912.613.48.2
Western Hemisphere14.011.710.88.58.97.59.711.38.18.7

Mongolia, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.