- International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
- Published Date:
- May 2012
©2012 International Monetary Fund
Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa. — Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2003–v. ; cm. — (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)
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1. Economic forecasting — Africa, Sub-Saharan — Periodicals. 2. Africa, Sub-Saharan — Economic conditions — 1960– —Periodicals. 3. Economic development — Africa, Sub-Saharan — Periodicals. I. Title: Sub-Saharan Africa. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
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- In Brief
- 1. Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty
- 2. The Impact of Global Financial Stress on Sub-Saharan African Banking Financial Systems
- 3. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Natural Resource Exporters: Recent Performance and Policy Challenges
- Statistical Appendix
- Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–12
- 1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Country Groupings
- 1.2. Impact on WAEMU of the Recovery in Côte d’Ivoire and the Drought in the Sahel
- 1.3. East Africa: Persistence of the Food and Fuel Shock
- 1.4. Growth Dynamics in the SACU Region in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis
- 1.5. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Exposure through Trade to the Economic Slowdown in the Euro Area
- 2.1. Nigeria’s Banking Crisis
- 2.2. Global Financial Spillovers into Sub-Saharan Africa—A GVAR Approach
- 2.3. Determinants of Financial Soundness Indicators—Bank-level Evidence
- 3.1. The Distribution of Nonrenewable Natural Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 3.2. Global Commodity Price Movements
- 3.3. Structural Transformation among Sub-Saharan African Countries
- 3.4. Estimating Reserve Adequacy in Resource-Exporting Low-Income Countries
- 1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth
- 1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators
- 3.1. Resource-Intensive Countries: Selected Resource Indicators, 2010
- 3.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Optimal Level of Reserves in a Sample of Resource-Intensive Countries
- 1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth by Contry Group
- 1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Low Income Countries and Other World Regions: Real GDP Growth
- 1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Macroeconomic Indicators
- 1.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Debt Ratios, 2000–11
- 1.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Investment, 2000–11
- 1.6. Sub-Saharan Africa Excluding South Africa: Credit to the Private Sector, 1995–2010
- 1.7. Selected Regions: Average Labor Productivity Growth, 1990–2009
- 1.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: CPI and Food Inflation, Average 2011
- 1.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in CPI Inflation from 12 Months Earlier, End-2012 vs. End-2011
- 1.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2004–12
- 1.11. Sub-Saharan Africa Non-resource Exporting LICs: Total Revenue, Excluding Grants, 2000–12
- 1.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Exports Shares by Partner
- 1.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: External Current Account Balance, 2004–12
- 1.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Headcount Poverty Index Using the $1.25 a Day Poverty Line
- 1.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Prospects, 2012 and 2013
- 2.1. Global Risk Aversion, 2005–12
- 2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Bond Flows, 2008–12
- 2.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Equity Flows, 2008–11
- 2.4. Sub-Saharan Africa, Select Countries: Portfolio and Foreign Direct Investment, June 2011
- 2.5. Sub-Saharan Africa, Select Countries: Inward Portfolio and Foreign Direct Investment, 2010
- 2.6. Select Countries: Exchange Rate Flexibility and Stock Market Sensitivity to Changes in Global Risk Aversion
- 2.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Flows and External Debt, 2005–10
- 2.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Systemic Banking Crises, 1980–2010
- 2.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Banks’ Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 2005–10
- 2.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Domestic Bank Credit, 2004–11:Q2
- 2.11. Sub-Saharan Africa, Selected Countries: Real Credit Developments, 2005–11
- 2.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Soundess Indicators, 2006–10
- 2.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Presence of European Banks, 2011
- 2.14 Sub-Saharan Africa: Liabilities to BIS-Reporting Banks, June 2011
- 2.15 Credit Default Swap Spreads, 2009–12
- 2.16 Sub-Saharan Africa: Bank Credit to Sub-Saharan African Residents
- 2.17 Sub-Saharan Africa: Prevalence of Capital Inflow and Outflow Controls, June 2011
- 2.18 Sub-Saharan Africa: Banking System Funding, June 2011
- 2.19 Consolidated Foreign Claims of BIS-reporting Banks on African Countries, 2011
- 2.20 Sub-Saharan Africa: Broad Financial Intermediation in the Average Sub-Saharan Africa Country, June 2011
- 2.21 Sub-Saharan Africa: External Loans from and Deposits at BIS-reporting Banks, June 2011
- 2.22 Sub-Saharan Africa: Ease of Getting Credit (Rank) and Strength of Legal Rights
- 2.23 Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Pan-African Banking Groups, June 2011
- 2.24 World: Observance of Basel Core Principles, 2011
- 3.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Major Nonrenewable Exports
- 3.2 Resource-Intensive Sub-Saharan Africa Countries: Real Resource and Nonresource GDP Growth
- 3.3 Sub-Saharan Africa: Resource Price Index and Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2000–11
- 3.4 Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Nonresource Exports, 2001–11
- 3.5 Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Revenues and Expenditures, 2000–11
- 3.6 Sub-Saharan Africa: Volatility Indicators, 2000–10
- 3.7 Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP Minus GNI Per Capita, Selected Years
- 3.8 Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Development Indicators, 2010
- 3.9 Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Development Indicators, 2005–10
- 3.10 Sub-Saharan Africa: Social Indicators and Resource Abundance, 2000–09
- 3.11 Sub-Saharan Africa: Resource Dependence and Institutional Quality
- 3.12 Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Changes in the Quality of Institutions
- 3.13 Sub-Saharan Africa Fiscally Dependent Countries: Resource Revenue and Nonresource Fiscal Deficit
- 3.14 Selected Countries: Fiscal Benchmarks Using Spring 2012 World Economic Outlook Resource Price Projections
Asset Management Company of Nigeria
Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions
Banque des Etats de L’Afrique Centrale
Bank for International Settlements
Brazil, Russia, India, and China
Central Bank of Nigeria
credit default swaps
Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa
Currency zone of CEMAC and WAEMU
consumer price index
East African Community
excess crude account
Economic Community of West African States
Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
Financial Stability Board
gross domestic product
Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain
gross national income
global vector autoregression
Human Development Index
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
Millennium Development Goals
Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative
Middle East and North Africa
memorandum of understanding
New Partnership for Africa’s Development
organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
ordinary least square
Quality of Institutions Estimate
real effective exchange rate
Regional Economic Outlook
Southern African Customs Union
special drawing rights
special economic zone
small and medium-sized enterprises
total factor productivity
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
United Nations Development Program
United States Department of Agriculture
Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index
West African Economic & Monetary Union
World Economic Outlook
The following conventions are used in this publication:
- In tables, a blank cell indicates “not applicable,” ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
- An en-dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2009—10 or January—June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2005/06) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY 2006).
- “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
- “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
This April 2012 issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa (REO) was prepared by a team led by Alfredo Cuevas and Montfort Mlachila under the direction of Sean Nolan.
The team included Javier Arze del Granado, Jorge Iván Canales-Kriljenko, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Cleary Haines, Maitland MacFarlan, Mauro Mecagni, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, Jean-Claude Nachega, Luiz Edgard R. Oliveira, Jon Shields, Darlena Tartari, Alun Thomas, and Juan Treviño. Specific contributions were made by Sandra Donnally, Samuel Fahlberg, Emily Forrest, Hervé Joly, Nir Klein, Brian Moon, Doris Ross, Oral Williams; and with editorial assistance from Jenny Kletzin DiBiase. Natasha Minges was responsible for document production, with assistance from Anne O’Donoghue, and publishing assistance from Charlotte Vazquez. The editing and production was overseen by Joe Procopio of the External Relations Department.
Chapter 1: Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty
- Despite difficult external conditions, output in sub-Saharan Africa grew by 5 percent last year. Most countries shared in this solid expansion. Exceptions included South Africa, slowed by weakness in major European trading partners, and countries in western Africa affected by drought in the Sahel and civil conflict in Cote d’Ivoire. Consumer price inflation rose, particularly in eastern Africa, sparked in part by sharply higher global food and energy prices. Macreconomic policies were generally accommodating.
- For 2012, the baseline projection is for much of the region’s output momentum to be maintained. Although modest world growth is expected to keep export growth subdued, new resource production in several countries and recovery in western Africa will help nudge output growth up to 5½ percent. Inflation is projected to moderate, notably in countries in eastern Africa have tightened monetary policy.
- This outlook is subject to substantial downside risks because of global uncertainties. Renewed financial stresses in the euro area would reduce the pace of growth in sub-Saharan Africa in both 2012 and 2013, with the adverse impact depending on the severity of euro zone shock and, for individual countries, the importance of direct links to Europe. Another surge in oil prices would rekindle inflation, cut growth, and strain fiscal and external balances in oil importing countries.
- While macroeconomic policy prescriptions vary substantially between countries, efforts are warranted to rebuild policy buffers in countries where these have been eroded and where growth is strong. At the same time, contingency plans should be prepared in case counter-cyclical measures become necessary. Countries in the process of reducing elevated inflation rates will need to maintain monetary policy on the tight side.
Chapter 2: The Impact of Global Financial Stress on Sub-Saharan African Banking Systems
- Most sub-Saharan African banking systems have proved resilient to recent episodes of global financial stress. With limited levels of international financial integration, pressure on their loan quality, profitability, and bank liquidity has come mainly from indirect channels, notably through the impact of international trade developments on domestic economic growth.
- The rapid spread of pan-African banking groups in the last few years may in some cases have outpaced supervisory capacity. While their presence has spurred competition and innovation in the sector, these banking groups could become a channel for cross-border contagion unless regional supervisory frameworks are strengthened.
Chapter 3: The Region’s Natural Resource Exporters: Recent Performance and Policy Challenges
- Natural resources are an important contributor to merchandise exports in close to half of the 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the share of resource exports that accrue to national budgets varies widely across countries, with oil producers being the most successful in terms of revenue extraction.
- Countries that obtain considerable fiscal revenue from natural resources have experienced significantly higher volatility in exports, revenue, and nonresource GDP growth than other sub-Saharan African economies. Fiscal policy in many of these economies has become less procyclical over the past decade, but the boom-bust cycle has not been eliminated, and further strengthening of macro-fiscal frameworks would be beneficial.